Not So Grand, Huh?
Posted by Steve L. on July 4th, 2010 · Comments (20)
Have you seen Curtis Granderson’s BA/OBA/SLG line from the All-Star break last year through yesterday’s game? It’s .239/.312/.438 (in 540 PA over 130 games).
Is it time to say Brian Cashman got duped in this deal? I think it’s time to give this one the Ruppert Jones stamp, no? And, guess what, Granderson has two more years on his contract after this season.
Guys can have bad first halves. It does happen.
Way, way premature.
Corey Italiano wrote:
But, this is a bad 2nd half followed by a bad 1st half – making it a bad full season…
Evan3457 wrote:
Yeah, I’m sure the last 540 PA was just a small sample size…not!
@ Steve Lombardi:
no one has ever had a bad season. it’s not like Cano, our MVP to date, ever had a bad season. wait, 2008? 634 PAs: 271/305/410.
Anyone not concerned about Granderson at this point is not paying attention. If Winn had worked out at least an alternative would be available. Now, the Yanks will have to continue to play him and hope he can get himself going to the degree possible. Gardner should be shifted to center for the remainder of the season, Cashman should see if he can pick up a right handed hitting outfielder who could platoon with Granderson in left. I think the Tigers knew full well what they were trading away; Cashman needs to deal with the reality of this player’s limitations.
alterity wrote:
Or more directly to the point of “being duped”: Nick Swisher, 2008.
Speaking of which…anyone notice that Wilson Betemit is back up with the Royals? Anyone notice how he’s hitting? Small sample, of course. Tiny, in fact.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
And, actually, that’s about 3/4 of a season for Granderson, and believe it or not, not a particularly large sample, either.
Joseph Maloney wrote:
Why should Granderson be moved out of his natural position? He’s playing well there, according to both UZR and BIS +/- systems.
A RH OF to take games against the tougher lefties, I can see that; but why they have to move him out of center, that, I don’t get.
@ Evan3457:
Big difference between Swisher and Granderson -
Grandy has been trending down for a while now. Swish was not in 2008.
Swisher is a SH. Grandy is a waste against LHP. Swish works the count and walks – Grandy is a hacker. And, then there’s the whole BABIP thing for Swisher in 2008.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
See, here’s the thing about the BABIP…
Granderson’s K rate hasn’t moved significantly (well, it moved yesterday; from 22% to 24%)
In 2006, it was 29%.
In 2007, his BIG year, it was 23%.
In 2008, his good year, it was 20%.
In 2009, it was 22%.
And up until yesterday, it was 22% again.
Well, then he must be hitting more flyballs, and fewer line drives?
Uh, no.
His FB% is the same as it was in 2007, higher than 2008, but lower than last year. His line drive rate is the highest of his career. His infield popup percentage is 8.2%, which is much higher than last year, but about the same as it was in 2008, and actually lower than 2007.
His BABIP was .360 in 2007, the highest of his career, and it induced a career year for him.
In 2008, it .316, which is right around his current career average.
In 2009, it dropped off to .275, which is why he hit .249.
This year, rather than normalizing toward his career average (which was .340 before the last two seasons), or even just normalizing to the league average, it’s droppped again to .267, which is closer to Swisher’s .249 from 2008 than it is to Granderson’s track record.
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So, putting it all together, Granderson’s K rate is not higher (at least not until yesterday, and a 2% rise in K rate should cause a BAVG decline of .006; 20 more batted balls vs. K’s every 1000 AB should result in 6 more hits per 1000, or a rise of .006 in BAVG). His FB rate is down from last year. His GB rate is up from last year, and his LD rate is up.
OK, here’s the computation, based on his K rate, GB rate, FB rate, and LD rate. It’s rough, as these things vary from year to year, but
BAVG on K’s: .000
BAVG on FB’s: about .200
BAVG on GB’s: about .300
BAVG on LD’s: about .750
So: (.241)(.000) + (.339)(.200) + (.244)(.300) + (.175)(.750) = .27225
Granderson SHOULD be hitting, right now, about .272. When people think I’m nuts for saying I think he’ll be OK in the long run, this is what I’m looking at when I say it. .262 doesn’t sound so bad for BABIP, but it’s a fairly wide discrepancy of luck.
At .272, Granderson is a pretty valuable guy. If he were at .272, no one would be whining about him. But he’s not, and he’s hit very poorly since the HR in Arizona, so people are hitting the panic button.
Will he recover this year?
I dunno. It doesn’t look like it right now. Remember though, while everyone else has only 1/2 season to work with, Granderson still has 3/5 of his season to go, because he missed almost 1/5 of the season. The Yanks will likely get an RH OF to platoon with him, at least against some lefties. That should help some.
Oh, and as for “sample sizes”…
Consider Shawn Camp, who pitched in yesterday’s game for the Jays.
Look at his pitching record the first four years in the majors. Try and imagine a pitcher with that record EVER becoming a competent major league reliever.
Now look at the record for the last 2 1/2 years, and ask yourself, how big does a sample have to be, before it’s determinative of a player’s long-term potential.
Admittedly, relievers have very small samples in one year. But 4 seasons? Nearly 200 games, and over 200 major league innings?
Now, look over into the FIP and xFIP columns, and realize he always has been the same guy, in terms of basic skills.
His xFIP numbers by year, since he entered the league in 2004:
3.65, 4.39, 3.87, 4.00, 3.69, 4.01, and 3.92. His career xFIP? 3.93
Shawn Camp is the same guy he’s always been. The difference the last 2 1/2 years? Better defense, and better luck.
Oh, and one last thing. Swisher’s raised his BAVG about 40-50 points, which we all love.
But his BB% has dropped by more or less the same amount. It’s down from 16% last season, to about 10% this season. That’s why his OBA hasn’t moved from last season. He’s also hitting singles at a higher rate, and his HR and doubles rates are down slightly, which is why his SLG hasn’t moved.
So, he was just as valuable last year? No, of course not. If two players have the same OBA and SLG, the one with the higher BAVG is more valuable, because he’s using up fewer outs.
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Swisher’s K rate and BB rate this season: 23.3% and 10.4. (His K rate has dropped slightly.)
Granderson’s K rate and BB rate before yesterday’s Sombrero: 22.7% and 9.6%.
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Rough calculation on where Swisher’s BAVG should, as I did for Granderson above: .27236
Reason? Granderson’s BABIP is .262, Swisher’s is .340.
Maybe not all line drives are created equal.
@ Evan3457:
You da man!
anyone that says they wouldnt rather have coke in the pen, kennedy as the 6th starter ready in scranton and jackson playing cf right now is naive. heck u could trade kennedy for a nice sized package right now as his value is high
granderson has been a huge disappointment. we all knew he couldnt hut lefty’s but he cant even hit righty’s at this point. in the late innings of tight games he becomes an easy out esp if u bring a lefty in
Coke was not much missed at the time he was traded. In fact, he did so poorly in the post-season that Girardi stopped using him in anything resembling a key spot, going to Marte instead.
Kennedy was never going to get another real shot with the Yankees (he should’ve, but wore out his welcome with the team and the front office with his public statements after getting blasted in a couple of starts). I always thought he’d make someone a good #4 starter once they traded him, but he’d have never gotten another shot with the Yanks.
Jackson is still hitting over his head at the moment (BABIP .420+) and only hitting .305, is barely more productive than Granderson, due to his low BB rate and poor power numbers. The Yankees certainly didn’t trust him to open the season as the starting CF, else they wouldn’t have traded him for Granderson.
Is this worth more, overall, than Granderson? It might be, but that’s besides the point. These three guys certainly have more long-term value, but for value this season to solve the Yankees’ needs, the trade represents a consolidation of talent for a team that wants to win now, not in 2012.
Side note:
Jake1 wrote:
The only reason his value is high right now is BECAUSE the Yankees traded him to the D’backs. His value in Scranton “right now” would be much much lower.
Be patient; the season is not over yet.
@ Evan3457:
Here are Granderson’s numbers for the last 4 seasons – with 2010 to date.
Note the columns for BA, OPS+ and K/PA. If you can’t see the decline in his production from 2007, then I can’t help you.
But, the decline is there, for all to see, IMHO.
@ Steve Lombardi:
Why’d you bring up BABIP then? You can’t argue declining performance on one hand and bad luck on the other and then conveniently ignore one or the other whenever it suits you. Go back and re-read what Evan3457 wrote about Granderson’s BABIP because I think you’re moving your targets around.
@ MJ Recanati: I brought up BABIP because that’s the stat that everyone pointed to in 2009 to say that Swisher’s 2008 numbers were a fluke.
Why bring up Swisher? I didn’t – someone else did, saying if Swish can bounce back, so can Grandy.
But, I don’t need to see BABIP on Granderson to know that he’s been in decline for three years now and can’t hit a LHP if his life depended on it.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
The K/PA column is irrelevant; it’s bouncing up and down.
The other three declines can be directly attributed to a change in BABIP, in spite of no great change in his FB, GB and LD rates
Last night was a perfect case in point. Three AB, two balls hit hard, one a triple, the other a line drive right at a fielder.