Yanks Tried To Pick Up Ted Lilly
Posted by Steve L. on September 1st, 2010 · Comments (9)
Ben Nicholson-Smith has the story.
Well, I have to give Brian Cashman an “E” for this one…
Not for “error,” but, rather for “effort.” At least he tired. Nothing he could do about the Dodgers pulling him back. And, it’s nice to see that Cash realizes he could use another SP who can be trusted.
It was worth it to see if they could get Lilly on the cheap for the last month and the postseason. With Lilly’s extreme fly ball tendencies (20% of batted balls are line drives, 30% are grounders, 50% are fly balls) he’d be combustible at Yankee Stadium, and moving back to the AL East from the NL would be guaranteed to add at least a run to his ERA. Still he might make a better #4 for the postseason than AJ or Hughes at this point. At worst, he’d have been a 2nd lefty/long man for the postseason, if they’d have gotten him for the right price.
And then there’s this:
Source:
http://tinyurl.com/239psa9
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And then, there’s always the possibility of the K-Rod loophole, substituting Lilly for Aceves or Marte even if the “we were awarded the claim before the Aug.31st postseason roster deadline” defense doesn’t work. Don’t know if that can be applied to someone not even in the organization at that time, but it might be worth a shot…
I always liked Lilly. I couldn’t believe Cashman took Igawa over him in order to save luxury tax. In hindsight, I’m sure Cashman can’t believe he did that either.
Lilly for Weaver. Yup, a brilliant move by Cash there.
For the record, there have been only 7 LH pitchers to win 100+ games since 2003. Ted Lilly is one of them.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Hindsight is 20/20. And, really, it’s not like the Yankees have missed Ted Lilly in the nine seasons since he was traded. The Yanks have done pretty well without him.
Lilly isn’t THAT good..jeez…
Steve Lombardi wrote:
It was. I don’t remember much criticism levied at Cashman when the trade was made. There were a few “the rich get richer” complaints, but that’s about it.
Lilly’s been the better pitcher, that much is true. His career was helped a lot more by moving to the NL than Weaver’s was.
However:
1) Weaver’s also won 100 games, 53 of them since the Yanks traded him away (53-56 with a 4.78 ERA)
2) Lilly was not all that much better than average in the four full seasons he spent with Oakland and Toronto after he left the Yanks (49-44, ERA+ of 103, averaging 5.7 innings a start. It’s not as if the A’s and Jays were terrible when he pitched for them; they won 96, 67, 80, and 87 games, and had aggregate 330-318 record. The four teams had a combined ERA of 4.24 compared to Lilly’s 4.48.)
3) At the time he was available as a free agent, his career marks were 59-58 with a career ERA+ of 99.
4) Of the two of them, only Weaver has won a title, a ring that he was a significant factor in winning. His solid work as the Cards #3 starter in the postseason allowed LaRussa to leave Wainwright in the closer role. In fact, despite his horrible work for the Yankees in the post-season, his post-season numbers are better than Lilly’s.
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Look, this is not to say that Lilly hasn’t been better. He has, and not by a little. Lilly’s most similar pitchers by age include Nate Robertson, Pete Schourek, Brett Tomko, Dennis Rasmussen. Active pitchers whose careers are similar to Lilly are Wolf, Penny, Padilla, Marquis, and…AJ Burnett. Weaver’s comps by age include Mike Moore, Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson (twice) and last year, Esteban Loaiza. His career comps include Brett Tomko, Frank Castillo, Ponson, and Kyle Lohse.
Lilly’s comps are clearly better pitchers.
I just think that, as with Carl Pavano, people are evaluating these two pitchers solely on the basis of what they’ve done with the Yankees. Checking the Marginal Values at Fangraphs, Pavano was worth $9.3 million in 2003, $13.6 million in 2004, $16.5 million last season, and $13.4 million so far this season. In other words, he’s been a $10 million a year pitcher, EXCEPT for his time with the Yankees. Why is he so valuable EXCEPT when he pitches for the Yankees? I don’t know. It is infuriating. But it does suggest the talent evaluation of him by the Yankees was not incorrect. The personality evaluation? Maybe not so much.
Similar story with Jose Contreras. Can’t pitch under pressure? He led the White Sox to their first title in 87 years. In Chicago. Couldn’t hack it with the Yanks, especially against the Red Sox. Then he beat the Sox with a good game in the 3 game sweep in the ALDS in 2005.
Jaret Wright? Ah, there you have me. There was very little chance of that move working, long-term.
Weaver was good before the Yankees, and he’s been well, not good, since leaving the Yankees, but not wholly useless, either.
Lilly was pretty good with the Yanks, but we never got to see him in the post-season with the Yanks. His career took off after leaving the AL East. Predictable? Maybe. Would he have done much better with the Yanks? It’s not in his record prior.
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Summing up:
1. Weaver was slightly the better pitcher at the time of the trade, and more durable.
2. Lilly’s career record was so-so when he came up for free agency. Had the Yanks signed him, he would’ve been $15 million a year counting toward the luxury tax, and there’s no guarantee he would’ve been better than average in the AL East. Igawa was supposed to be a 5th starter for a year or two. Though he wound up being a waste of $45 million, his luxury tax hit was only $6 million a year, meaning there was almost $10 million a year the Yankees had available to get other players onto the roster, either in raises, signings, or trades. Just to pick one possible example, signing Igawa instead of Lilly might be the difference in re-signing Posada and having to sign, say, Paul LoDuca.
The trade didn’t work. The free agent signing of Igawa over Lilly turned out disastrously. Doesn’t mean either one was a blunder, at the time the moves were made.
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I wouldn’t mind it if they traded for Lilly. At the right price.