Leitch: Yanks Rotation Will Be Their October Downfall
Via Will Leitch:
But there is trouble brewing, and it’s best described by a quote that [Brian] Cashman might recognize from his old rival across the country in Oakland, Billy Beane. In Moneyball, Beane confesses, “My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.” What Beane meant was that for all his work at roster construction, once the strange dynamics of October take over—short series where a hot pitcher or a random bounce can prove decisive—winning is a crapshoot. Anything can happen. It’s a lesson Yankees fans should keep in mind, because one can make a strong argument that this team’s postseason prospects are shakier than anyone is willing to admit.
This season, A. J. Burnett will make more money than Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano. His $16.5 million salary makes him the twentieth-highest-paid player in the game and the sixth-highest-paid pitcher. And he has been terrible. His 5.15 ERA is easily the worst of his career, and he’s compiled a 10-12 record, which, on a team that’s more than 30 games over .500, is difficult to achieve even if you’re trying. Girardi has kept him in the rotation for the same reason Girardi makes most decisions—he has a solid enough lineup, and a big enough cushion in the standings, that he can keep sending Burnett out there and hope he figures it out. In October, he will have no such luxury.
Burnett is just the highest-profile symptom of the Yankees’ biggest postseason concern. The rotation is springing leaks everywhere. After CC Sabathia, who has been terrific, the Yankees don’t have a single reliable starter. Andy Pettitte hasn’t pitched since mid-July, and it’s far from certain he’ll look like the old Andy when he returns from his left-groin injury. Phil Hughes was the team’s best pitcher the first three months of the season but has cooled off lately (and is nearing his innings limit). Javier Vazquez has vindicated fans who screamed when the Yankees traded for him in the off-season (funny how Game 7 grand slams given up to the Red Sox don’t fade from public consciousness) and was recently plying his trade in the bull pen. Rookie Ivan Nova has been a pleasant surprise, but he’s still a rookie. Dustin Moseley, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre are guys you throw in the game in case one of the above pitchers can’t make it out of the second inning.
And that’s it. That’s all the Yankees have as a rotation. A $213 million payroll, and the Yankees have one reliable postseason starter. So much of October comes down to starting pitching—that and Mariano Rivera have been the constants during every Yankees World Series run—and the Yankees, the vaunted Yankees, have no idea who starts Game 2 of a series. Sure, they’re planning on its being Pettitte, but that’s assuming he’s ready and able. If he’s not, the Yankees are looking at Burnett, Hughes, or Vazquez. Never mind Game 3.
This ties into what I mentioned a week and a half ago. As I said then: “…the Yankees starting rotation, excluding #52, is a mess. It’s a shame that the Yankees front office has turned a blind eye to this as it has been unfolding. Because, now, it may be too late to do anything about it.”
There’s no way this rotation carries the Yankees through three rounds of post-season baseball. Maybe, just maybe, it might get them through the LDS – because you only need three wins there. But, come LCS and WS time, it’s going to be a sad time in Yankeeland, should New York make it that far.
But, come LCS and WS time, it’s going to be a sad time in Yankeeland, should New York make it that far.
Jeff Niemann has looked like shit in his last three starts.
Texas altogether has looked like shit for a while now, and they’re banged up all across the board.
Minnesota certainly doesn’t have anyone imposing after Liriano. All those guys are hittable.
Not to deflect from the point about the Yankees, but it’s certainly not a definite what you’re saying.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees eliminated in the first round without winning a game. The Yanks hitting is very overrated, this team will struggle to score runs in the postseason and the starting pitching outside of CC appears to be a lost cause. To understand where we are, Nova is now in the discussion of postseason starters.
We tend to see all the flaws on our team, none on the others. The Rays right now have Price and Garza and thats all. Shields has an ERA close to 5, Davis has struggled and probably wont get a start, and Neimann has been Burnett-like for a month and may still be hurt. Texas has looked pretty bad for a month now and have injuries to Lee and Hamilton. Minnesota just had Baker get hurt, Mourneau has been down, and the Yanks have owned them for years. And does anyone in the NL scare you right now? The NL races are all about who is losing less. Believe me, none of these teams want to play the Yankees.
To wit, look at the ERA’s of Burnett and Pettitte last year going into the playoffs.
Burnett: 4.04. Pettitte: 4.16.
Not exactly the numbers you want from your #2 and #3 starters. The Yankee rotation was a concern to many down the stretch, especially the way AJ had been pitching, and compared to a “built-for-the-playoffs” rotation like Boston’s, which had Lester and Beckett sub-4, and Buchholz pitching to a 1.73 in September, and it looked like there were definite problems that could arise in the playoffs too.
And then the playoffs actually happened, and Pettitte was superb, AJ very good at home (not so much on the road, but in the circumstances that arose, both times they were up 3-1 with games 6 and 7 in NY. Margin for error, no guarantee that’s the case this year, of course).
What I guess I’m trying to say is that it’s definitely fair to point out rotational concerns that could loom large to this team’s playoff potential, especially Burnett and Hughes since there won’t be the ability to go three-man throughout the entire postseason like they could last year. Rather, I’ll simply see how everything plays out. If Pettitte comes back and pitches well, coupled with C.C., the Yankees already have two guys who they expect to win with. I’ll take my chances with those two pitching well.
This team just won eight straight games. One small two game skid follows and its gloom and doom around here again. It’s fucking insanity. Do the Yankees have their flaws? Absolutely. So do the other four teams on the AL playoff precipice.
IMHO, the best starting rotation is not getting into the playoffs: BOS. Everyone else has good, bad and ugly. I’ll take my chances with what we have.
Again: who else scares you? The Rays? Maybe. They’re tough, their pitching is pretty sound, and they can field and run. But they can’t hit all that well; they’re life and death to avoid getting 3-hit or worse in too many games.
The Rangers? Another flawed team. Minnesota? The same team Steve keeps saying doesn’t count because the Yanks “own” them?
The team that could make the playoffs that might be scary is the White Sox, but they’ll have to get past the Twins first.
Over in the NL…the Padres and Giants can’t hit either. The Rockies could be a challenge if they can get past the top two, but that isn’t likely. The Reds have one solid starter in Cueto, and maybe another in Arroyo. Maybe. The Cards top 3 is scary, but they’re not likely to catch the Reds.
So what’s left; the Braves and Phillies, maybe. The Yanks’ll only have to beat one of them, if it happens that they meet.
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The Yankee rotation has been more or less like this since AJ went down in June, Hughes backslid, and Pettitte got hurt going on 7 weeks ago. You know what their record is since the beginning of June? 55-32? You know what it’s been since Pettitte got hurt? 28-19.
People think that you need a rotation like Pettitte, Wells, El Duque and Cone to win it all. You don’t, not unless you’re facing Pettitte, Wells, El Duque and Cone.
You need two good starters and a halfway decent third, if you have a solid bullpen. Right now, the Yanks have a solid bullpen. They can carry 12 pitchers including two long relievers in the post-season if they have to, along with Cervelli, Berkman, Thames, Kearns and Pena.
In 1987, the Twins won on the “strength” of a rotation of Frank Viola (17-10, 2.90), Bert Blyleven 15-12 (4.01) and Les Straker (8-10, 4.37).
In 1993, the Jays won it all with this rotation: Juan Guzman (14-3, 3.99), Dave Stewart (12-8, 4.44), Pat Hentgen 19-9 (3.87), and Todd Stottlemyre (11-12, 4.84). Lest you think that was a good rotation in the steroid era, they were 9th in the AL in rotation ERA, 12th in the league in rotation K/BB ratio, and 11th in WHIP.
In 2006, the Cards rotation that won it all was Carpenter (15-8, 3.09), Weaver (5-4 5.18), Suppan (12-7, 4.12), and Reyes (5-8, 5.06). The Cards starters that year were 12th out of 16 in the NL in ERA, 10th in WHIP, 11th in K/BB ratio, and 14th in HR allowed.
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And then of course, there’s last year’s Yankees. The rotation last year was CC, 19-8 3.37; Pettitte, 14-8, 4.16; AJ, 13-9, 4.04, and Joba 9-6. 4.75. Joba, of course, didn’t pitch in the post-season rotation. Thanks largely to Joba’s collapse and the misery in the 5th starter slot until Gaudin took it in late August/Early September, Yankee starters in 2009 were 5th in ERA, 8th in WHIP, 8th in K/BB ratio. They were tied for the league lead in fewest HRs allowed.
Well, comparing this year to last, the major change is that the 4th starter, presumably Hughes, will have to make one start in the ALCS and World Series, if they get that far. Otherwise, AJ is worse, CC is better, and Andy was better before he got hurt. Right now, the Yanks starters are 7th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, 7th in K/BB ratio. Largely because of Hughes and Vazquez, they’re last in the AL in HR allowed. Vazquez and Hughes are not both starting in the playoffs (unless Andy gets hurt again, and if he does, well, that would finish things for a repeat anyway).
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The Yanks right now have 1 1/2 solid starters in 5. When Andy comes back, that becomes 2 1/2. When the #5 gets dropped, that’s 2 1/2 out of 4. If the hitting and bullpen hold up, they can still win it all, just like that.
I’m not saying they should be favored. In fact, I think the odds against them winning it all again are at least 4 to 1 against, maybe 5 to 1 against. What I’m saying is that the current state of the rotation is not determinative, 1) because the current state NOW might improve by the start of the post-season, and 2) because it’s possible they can win it all with CC, a solid Pettitte, and either Hughes or AJ stepping forward with one good game out of 3 in the ALCS and World Series, should they get that far.
Joseph Maloney wrote:
I’ll take that bet.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
You always level this charge but never back it up with any concrete facts. The Yankees front office has clearly not turned a blind eye to this, in either word or deed.
@ Evan3457:
Stop trying to make sense!
@ MJ Recanati:
Perhaps it’ll become true if he repeats it enough?
Yep, with Moose, Duque, Clemens, Pettitte and Wells, those Angels didn’t stand a chance in 2002… Wait, what?
@ Raf:
Hopefully that’s how it works. In that case…
“I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…I want a million dollars…”
Nope…didn’t work…
Steve, your right, the Yanks rotation is fair at best, right now. But the Yanks line-up,defense, and over-all bench is still better than any other team in baseball. The Yankees pitching still has time to sort itself out. We tend to forget all the angst over the last 15 years heading into the play-offs, sometimes it’s a bunch of old, hurt players, sometimes it’s the bullpen, sometimes the team has played poorly in Sept. Remember, the Yanks have a lot of players that have been there before (I wouldn’t mind having Matsui/Damon in the DH hole), but no team has everything.