Well, now we know, for sure, that the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Twins will be fighting it out in the 2010 ALDS. But, as the numbers below show, there’s still the issue of who in the A.L. will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Rk Tm W L W-L% 1 TBR 94 63 .599 2 NYY 94 64 .595 3 MIN 92 65 .586 4 TEX 87 70 .554 5 BOS 87 70 .554 6 CHW 84 73 .535 7 TOR 81 76 .516 8 DET 80 76 .513 9 OAK 77 80 .490 10 LAA 77 80 .490 11 CLE 66 91 .420 12 KCR 65 92 .414 13 BAL 62 95 .395 14 SEA 61 96 .389
Expect the Yankees to lose tonight’s game. Between hangovers and Javy Vazquez, it’s bound to happen. That would leave the Yankees with 94 wins and three games left to play – all up in Fenway Park against the Red Sox.
After today, the Rays and Twins each have four games left. Minnesota will be hosting the Blue Jays for four games and Tampa Bay heads to Kansas City for four games.
My estimation is that it will take at least 96 wins to win home-field advantage for the A.L. post-season this year. And, I think that means the Twins are out of it – as I see Minny ending up with 95 wins this season when it’s all said and done.
So, for New York to be in the hunt for “home-field,” they’re going to have to take two of three from the Red Sox. In fact, maybe they’re going to need a sweep if the Royals roll over for the Rays.
Yesterday, Yankees manager Joe Girardi said that having the best record, and home-field, was important. But, he also said that he’s seeing a lot of tired bodies out there when the Yankees are in the field. Hearing this, and knowing that the Yankees would need a big series in Fenway to get home-field, I’m thinking the odds are in favor of the Rays ending up with the best record in the league.
And, this would make the ALDS match-ups: Rangers-Rays and Yankees-Twins, with the Yankees never having home-field advantage in the post-season, at all.