• Why Yanks Will Win Or Lose ALDS

    Posted by on October 4th, 2010 · Comments (10)

    Via Mel Antonen today -

    The Yankees will win …

    The Yankees, making their 49th postseason appearance, will beat Minnesota in their Division Series because the Yankee are the Yankees. They don’t worry about end-of-the season losing when they finished 9-17.

    And besides, they know how to beat the Twins and their offense will pound the Twins’ inexperienced pitching staff.

    Since 2002, the Yankees have a 63-20 record against the Twins, including 9-2 in the postseason and a sweep last season, even though the Twins had a lead during the sixth inning in each of the first three games. The Yankees always find a way to beat the Twins.

    The Yankees will lose …

    The Yankees will lose a Division Series to the Twins for the first time because they will be worn out, their rotation will falter and they won’t be able to hang the Yankee Stadium mystique on the Twins. Plus, they don’t wear the tag of wild-card team well.

    Lefty CC Sabathia is fine as a starter, but lefty Andy Pettitte will feel the effects of missing nine weeks with a groin injury. He’s given up 22 hits in 13 1/3 innings since returning. A.J. Burnett had ERAs of 7.80 and 6.14 during each of the final two months, and Phil Hughes will show fatigue from too many innings. The Yankees wanted to limit him to 175 in his first season. He’s thrown 176 1/3 innings.

    This will the first time in the postseason that the Yankees haven’t had home-field advantage vs. the Twins. The Yankees lost 8-4 to Boston on Sunday to become the wild-card team. In each of three previous seasons as the wild-card team – in 1995, 1997 and 2007 – the Yankees have always lost in the first round.

    So, which scenario is more likely to happen? While I feel like the latter has a greater probability, I understand what’s being expressed in the former. Either way, it’s going to be an interesting ALDS in Yankeeland, for sure. And, I have to wonder what the impact will be, with respect to the 2011 Yankees, after we know what the eventual outcome is…

    Comments on Why Yanks Will Win Or Lose ALDS

    1. G.I. Joey
      October 4th, 2010 | 10:24 am

      No matter what happens this year, Cliff Lee will be a Yankee in 2011. Book it.

    2. clintfsu813
      October 4th, 2010 | 11:01 am

      @ G.I. Joey:
      I hope you’re right. Although with the Rangers signing that huge TV contract we may have to overpay (again) for his services as Texas has said they’ll go hard in for him.

    3. #15
      October 4th, 2010 | 12:32 pm

      Cliff will be with the good guys next year.

      I think we should go CC, Hughes, Andy for the first three. Take one of the first two and we ought to be okay.

    4. Evan3457
      October 4th, 2010 | 3:21 pm

      I would go Hughes in game 2 and Andy in game 3 for two reasons:

      1. If they lose the 1st two, I want Andy backstopping in game 3.
      2. Hughes has pitched much better on the road than at home. He should pitch in Target Field rather than the Stadium. That goes for Game 5, if needed, as well.

    5. MJ Recanati
      October 4th, 2010 | 3:41 pm

      clintfsu813 wrote:

      t we may have to overpay (again) for his services as Texas has said they’ll go hard in for him.

      We were overpaying for him anyway. The Cliff Lee market was at least $18M/year next year anyway, irrespective of whatever found money Texas has come upon now.

    6. MJ Recanati
      October 4th, 2010 | 3:43 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      1. If they lose the 1st two, I want Andy backstopping in game 3.
      2. Hughes has pitched much better on the road than at home. He should pitch in Target Field rather than the Stadium. That goes for Game 5, if needed, as well.

      I agree that Hughes has pitched better on the road. But I’d still rather set up a scenario where the better overall pitcher has the opportunity for two starts. To me, that’s Andy Pettitte.

    7. clintfsu813
      October 4th, 2010 | 4:11 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:
      Do you think if he has an iffy Post season that, that and his injuries this year will drop the price any?

    8. MJ Recanati
      October 4th, 2010 | 6:28 pm

      clintfsu813 wrote:

      Do you think if he has an iffy Post season that, that and his injuries this year will drop the price any?

      Before last year, Sabathia had done nothing good in the playoffs and it didn’t drop his price any.

    9. redbug
      October 4th, 2010 | 6:39 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:

      I’d go w/ Andy as #2 as well – despite the concerns about his long time off and maybe sore back. After CC, Andy’s our best chance. If he’s not up to it, so be it.

    10. MJ Recanati
      October 4th, 2010 | 6:43 pm

      redbug wrote:

      @ MJ Recanati:
      I’d go w/ Andy as #2 as well – despite the concerns about his long time off and maybe sore back. After CC, Andy’s our best chance. If he’s not up to it, so be it.

      My feelings exactly.

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