• Twins Magic Touch At Home Bad News For Yankees?

    Posted by on October 6th, 2010 · Comments (3)

    I was just looking at the four A.L. post-season teams this year in terms of how they did, playing at home this year, when facing teams who were .500 or better. Here’s the data:

    Tm Year G W L W-L% RS RA pythW-L%
    TEX 2010 24 15 9 .625 115 104 .546
    TBR 2010 41 24 17 .585 187 160 .571
    MIN 2010 35 20 15 .571 153 149 .512
    NYY 2010 39 21 18 .538 220 205 .532
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 10/6/2010.

    .

    Note how much better the Twins did at home compared to their projected W-L%. Perhaps they do have some home field advantage working for them here? And, maybe the Yankees will live to regret not winning the A.L. East and having to be the wildcard this season?

    Comments on Twins Magic Touch At Home Bad News For Yankees?

    1. MJ Recanati
      October 6th, 2010 | 12:02 pm

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      Note how much better the Twins did at home compared to their projected W-L%. Perhaps they do have some home field advantage working for them here? And, maybe the Yankees will live to regret not winning the A.L. East and having to be the wildcard this season?

      Using your logic, then not winning the division was the better option since the Rangers (0.079) have a greater delta than the Twins (0.059) between their actual W-L% and their Pythagorean W-L%, according to your data table.

      Having said that, the data is skewed anyway since the Yanks hosted the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays a total of 27 times (all above .500 in 2010). The Rangers and Twins hosted fewer games against teams above .500 by virtue of the fact that the unbalanced schedule gave them more intra-divisional games and, as we all know, the AL Central/West don’t stack up to the AL East.

    2. October 6th, 2010 | 12:11 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:
      If the yankees won the AL east, they’d only have to play the Rangers twice in Texas – like the Rays are now.

    3. MJ Recanati
      October 6th, 2010 | 12:17 pm

      @ Steve Lombardi:
      It still wouldn’t matter because, by your inference, if the Yankees are the “worst” home team and the data shows the Rangers to be the “best” home team, then the Rangers would be more likely to win their two home games than the Yankees would be likely to win theirs.

      All that said, I’m fundamentally disputing the entire argument in the way it is being presented since.

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