• Good News, Bad News, Yankees Fans

    Posted by on October 16th, 2010 · Comments (19)

    The good news is that the 2010 ALCS is now a best three of five and you have the home field advantage.

    The bad news is that A.J. Burnett is slated to start one of those games for you – and you will have to face Cliff Lee at least once, and perhaps twice, in those five games.

    Comments on Good News, Bad News, Yankees Fans

    1. Jim TreshFan
      October 16th, 2010 | 8:40 pm

      I had the Yankees down for 1 for 11 with RISP and 12 LOB. Was that about right? (I was afraid to look)

      So it’s up to Andy Pettitte to set this thing back on track. Is there anyone else you would want? LETS GO YAN-KEES!

    2. ken
      October 16th, 2010 | 9:55 pm

      Yanks couldn’t lose 2. They did not. I’ll take my chances on the rest of this series.

    3. Evan3457
      October 16th, 2010 | 10:12 pm

      Advantage swings in the Rangers’ favor for the rest of the series.

      Yanks can still win in one of two ways:

      Beat the Rangers in a game Lee starts (which is NOT exactly the same as beating Lee; close, but not the same). Chance: perhaps 15% per game for a combined chance of 32%, plus win 2 of the other 3 games; chance: 60% at a rough guess. Combining the two: roughly 19%

      OR

      Sweep games 4, 5, and 6. I’d estimate the chances at about (.45)(.75)(.65), or about 22%.

      I put the Yanks odds of winning this series at roughly 40% at this point.

    4. Evan3457
      October 16th, 2010 | 10:15 pm

      Hmmm…I may have overestimated the Yanks’ chances slightly. On a recalculation, it would appear to be more like 35-37%.

    5. Evan3457
      October 16th, 2010 | 10:15 pm

      And no, I would not like to give 2-1 odds against their chances.

    6. October 17th, 2010 | 12:52 am

      Last night Michael Kay stated the Rangers would not be able to recover from the devastating game 1 meltdown. Looking at this series the
      Rangers plans had to evolve around Cliff Lee, so while game 1 was a big letdown for the Rangers to me it didn’t seem like a knockout punch. Win the two Lee games, hope to pick up the AJ game and win one of the four games CC or Hughes starts, that has to be the Texas thinking. Today, the Rangers are on schedule. They have beat Hughes and the path to victory is pretty clear. Steve, I think you were right, game three is the make or break game for the Yanks in this series.

    7. redbug
      October 17th, 2010 | 5:21 am

      I think the problem is the Yanks pitchers are way off their normal rest and routine. Texas is is going on normal rest. It will be the same for Andy and god-knows Burnett.

      If Andy loses on Monday, Girardi may use CC on 3 days, but then he’d have to do the same w/ Hughes and Andy.

      Let’s hope for a rain-out or 2.

    8. Evan3457
      October 17th, 2010 | 7:49 am

      Joseph Maloney wrote:

      Last night Michael Kay stated the Rangers would not be able to recover from the devastating game 1 meltdown. Looking at this series the
      Rangers plans had to evolve around Cliff Lee, so while game 1 was a big letdown for the Rangers to me it didn’t seem like a knockout punch. Win the two Lee games, hope to pick up the AJ game and win one of the four games CC or Hughes starts, that has to be the Texas thinking. Today, the Rangers are on schedule. They have beat Hughes and the path to victory is pretty clear. Steve, I think you were right, game three is the make or break game for the Yanks in this series.

      I disagree.

      Game 3 is not make or break. Game 4 is make or break. If the Yanks don’t outfight Lee on Monday then they must get a good game from AJ or beat the snot out of Hunter on Tuesday.

    9. Raf
      October 17th, 2010 | 8:09 am

      The Yanks were looking for a split in TX, they got it.

      Joseph Maloney wrote:

      Last night Michael Kay stated the Rangers would not be able to recover from the devastating game 1 meltdown.

      Kay doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He didn’t see the season series. He didn’t listen to postgame interviews after game one either.

      The difference between game 1 and game 2? Washington went to his best relievers.

    10. JeremyM
      October 17th, 2010 | 10:50 am

      Well, I thought they should’ve hammered Lewis too, but they weren’t able to come through with the big blow. That game had the makings of a slugfest but the Yankees offense didn’t come through. Teix and A-Rod really need to put it together- especially Teix since he did nothing last October. The home runs have been great, but we need more from him.

      Hughes was a big letdown, it’s one thing to stink but he was far worse than that. Not sure why he came out to give up two more runs but I guess in the end it didn’t matter. Joba looked good at least.

    11. 77yankees
      October 17th, 2010 | 11:15 am

      There’s no guarantee that Game 3 is an automatic loss as the media or quake in their boots folk will have you believe.

      If you recall the many times the Yankees faced Pedro Martinez in his prime with Boston remember a lot of games were of the 2-2 sort entering the 8th inning when Pedro would come out of the game, and the game would be decided by the bullpens.

      If that same situation occurs Monday night, I’d sure take my chances with our pen vs. theirs.

    12. RobertGKramer@AOL.Com
      October 17th, 2010 | 12:57 pm

      If we lose game three to Lee, I like the idea of Sabathia on short rest in game four and Burnett dropped to game five.

    13. MJ Recanati
      October 17th, 2010 | 3:20 pm

      RobertGKramer@AOL.Com wrote:

      If we lose game three to Lee, I like the idea of Sabathia on short rest in game four and Burnett dropped to game five.

      I’d actually argue the contrary. As foreign (and frightening) a thought as it is to have to rely on AJ Burnett in Game 4, the Yanks should resist pitching Sabathia on short rest. He’s been pretty lousy in the playoffs thus far so putting him in a disadvantaged position of short rest isn’t likely to yield better results.

    14. Evan3457
      October 17th, 2010 | 4:26 pm

      Daily News reporting Freddy “Sez” Schuman has died.

      RIP, Freddy.

      tinyurl.com/287aouo

    15. Evan3457
      October 17th, 2010 | 4:27 pm

      http://tinyurl.com/287aouo

      That link should work

    16. RobertGKramer@AOL.Com
      October 17th, 2010 | 4:35 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:
      My thinking is he seems to be lousy because he’s too strong. Short rest would counteract that!

    17. October 17th, 2010 | 4:59 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Daily News reporting Freddy “Sez” Schuman has died.RIP, Freddy.

      Thanks for the link. I have something up on it now.

    18. October 17th, 2010 | 5:05 pm

      Here’s the deal with the Yankees now. It’s 1-1. They have to face Lee in Game 3 and they have Burnett going in Game 4. New York may be down, 3-1, in this series, in a heartbeat.

      Yes, Pettitte is going in Game 3. And, he’s great. But, Lee takes his team deep into the game because he throws strikes. And, that means the Texas bullpen, the middle men, are out of the game. And, that really increases the Rangers chances of winning.

      Yes, if the Yankees lose Game 3, you can come back with CC on short rest in Game 4. But, CC has not been great in his last two starts. And, if he goes in Game 3, then you have Hughes on short rest in Game 4 – or Burnett. So, then you’re screwed in Game 4.

      Best bet? Hope that it rains on Tuesday night after the game starts and you have a two-hour rain delay. Shitty for the fans. But, that cooks Lee for the game and then maybe it’s anyone’s contest. And, perhaps New York then wins the game and that takes the pressure off Game 4.

    19. October 17th, 2010 | 9:18 pm

      Joe has a real mess on his hands should he Yankees go down in game three. To start CC in game four closes the AJ book for the 2010 season. I wouldn’t even put AJ on the World Series roster if they happen to make it to the final round. That said, I don’t think Joe has any real choice but to go to CC in the event of a lose. AJ has been terrible the entire second half and he had major control issues in the simulated game he pitched. There is no evidence to suggest he will be effective, and down 2-1 with a second Hughes start on the horizon, I don’t see Joe risking the whole season. So in the event Lee wins game three, CC pitches game four, Hughes game five, Andy on short rest game six and CC vs. Lee in game seven.

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