Think about this for a moment or two. After the All-Star break in 2010, the Yankees went 39-35. If you take that win-rate and apply it to a 162-game season, it works out to 85 wins.

O.K., and, since the end of last season, the Yankees have lost Kerry Wood and Lance Berkman. And, they’re probably going to lose Andy Pettitte. To address this, they’ve added Russell Martin and Pedro Feliciano. And, at this point, it looks like Sergio Mitre will replace Pettitte in the rotation. (It also appears that Ivan Nova will replace Javier Vazquez, who is now gone as well. But, that’s sort of a push at this point since Vazquez was a disaster, overall, in 2010.)

Does Mitre, Martin and Feliciano fill the shoes of Pettitte, Berkman and Wood? If you think it does, then I suggest that you avoid operating heavy machinery…

Basically, the Yankees were a very good first half team in 2010 because, on the pitching side, Pettitte was healthy and rolling while Burnett and Vazquez were at least winning as many as they were losing. And, on the batting side, in the first half of the season, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher were swinging like MVPs (but not so much in the second half). In other words, the flukes that were carrying the team came back down to earth in the second half of 2010.

So, unless we see someone, actually more than just someone, play over their head for an extended period for New York in 2011, how is this team going to win more than 85 games in 2011? Please, tell me. I’d like to know the answer.

Filed under Trap Door Items ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

How many players in big league history had a season like A-Rod’s season last year, when they were the same age as Alex was in that year?

To get the answer, I ran some numbers on the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. And, this is what I got:

Batter                        YEAR     RCAA      PA      RCAA      OWP      OPS
1    Jermaine Dye             2008       19      645       19     .591     .128
T2   Bob Johnson              1941       18      653       18     .586     .105
T2   Tilly Walker             1922       18      645       18     .579     .136
4    Alex Rodriguez           2010       17      595       17     .590     .111
5    Vladimir Guerrero        2010       15      643       15     .577     .105
T6   Magglio Ordonez          2008       13      623       13     .570     .112
T6   Baby Doll Jacobson       1925       13      602       13     .560     .115
8    Cy Williams              1922       11      676       11     .543     .127

Filter used: SEASON where AGE = 34, PLATE APPEARANCES >= 580, RCAA BETWEEN 10 AND 20, OWP < .6 and OPS > .1 vs. the league average

So, there you have it. A-Rod’s season last year was right on par with Jermaine Dye and Magglio Ordonez’ 2008, and, with Vladimir Guerrero’s season last year.

As a Yankees fan, how do you feel about seeing this level of production from Rodriguez? And, how excited or worried are you about his production in 2011 and the years to come?

Filed under Math Class ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

This past week I took myself to the local multiplex to catch “True Grit.” Now I’m not a big filmgoer and no fan of the Coen brothers to be sure. But I had seen the John Wayne version in the theater back in 1969, enjoyed it immensely, and heard that the remake was even better. And I must say it was better. In fact, it was just about the best movie, Oater or not, that I had seen in quite some time, and both the box office and reviews are bearing that out. It’s on track to become the second highest grossing Western ever, and has an “Oscar Buzz” about it. I ate up this movie so well that I went out just yesterday, bought the book, and read it in about four hours. And I can tell you it’s the best novel I’ve read in some time as well. A real “American Classic.”

After I put the book down last night I mulled over the character of Mattie Ross, the shrewest horsetrader and surest judge of men and ther peculiaralities in perhaps all of fiction, and I thought, “What an excellent general manager she’d make! She’d have her team in contention every year regardless of payroll.” And now that I’ve slept on it I’m even more certain on the point: Given my choices of any character in fiction to be General Manager of a major league baseball franchise I would go with Mattie Ross. There’s no Captain Ahab or Rhett Butler about it—although both were superb dramatis personae—It’s all Mattie Ross for me.

Which leads me to the question for the day: If you could replace Brian Cashman with any character from fiction to run the Yankees, who would it be? The answer may tell you as much about your understanding of the role of a MLB GM as it does about your choices in reading material.

Filed under Jim TreshFan ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

Darren Pare offers his 5 worst free agent signings ever by the New York Yankees.

So, do you agree, or not?

Filed under Trap Door Items ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

How is it possible that the Yankees only play 9 home games during the month of August 2011? That’s nuts – but, true.

Further, over the last two months of the 2011 season, the Yankees have only 20 games at home versus 33 road games.

New York better take advantage of all those home games over the first four months of the 2011 season. But, wait…didn’t Brian Cashman say something about having until July to make a move…?

Filed under Trap Door Items ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

Stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. From A-Rod to Melky, and from Mo to Ponson, here’s all the boys Brian Cashman has carried on the Yankees roster over the last 5 years and how they’ve done, overall.

(more…)

Filed under Math Class,Yankees History ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

John Tomase, of the Boston Herald, has this 2011 prediction for the New York Yankees -

By September, the Yankees won’t be a factor in the AL East. This is shaping up to be an ugly transition year in Gotham, with age creeping around all over the diamond, from shortstop (Derek Jeter) to third (Alex Rodriguez) to designated hitter (Jorge Posada).

The starting pitching remains thin beyond CC Sabathia and the bullpen beyond Rivera is a year-to-year crapshoot.

They’ll beat up on enough bad pitching to hang around, but don’t be surprised if they end up filling the role played by the Red Sox last September — contender in name only.

Transition year?

“Transition” to what? The only changes I see for this team in 2012 would be, maybe, at catcher and right field. Well, that and designated hitter.

Sure, maybe they add a starting pitcher for 2012. But, there really aren’t any “Cliff Lee” type free agent pitchers slated to be on the market after the 2011 season. So, I doubt that happens…

Face it – if 2011 is going to be ugly in Yankeeland, then, 2012 is going to be even uglier. And, don’t even get me started about 2013.

Filed under Rivalry Snapshots ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

Day two of the new year. And, if you’re looking to improve on your condition in 2011, I highly recommend Tony Horton’s new book – or, if you’re really at ground zero, something like a freebie program such as Couch to 5K.

Just get moving, more, and, go easy on the Homer Simpson food.

It’s your health. Take care of it. No one else will do it for you.

Filed under Random Thoughts ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post

How’s Al rockin’ his New Year’s Eve?  Via the Mail Online -

As the star of the hit comedy What Happens In Vegas, it’s no surprise Cameron Diaz decided to spend New Years Eve in Sin City.

The 38-year-old and her boyfriend Alex Rodriguez, 35, were seen shopping together in Las Vegas before the festivities.

The actress, who was dressed in jeans, knee-high boots, a tweed jacket and scarf, then headed over to the Aria Hotel and Casino for dinner with baseball star.

The pair are expected to attend a party at The Cosmopolitan, a new $4 billion resort on the strip.

Coldplay and Jay-Z are expected to perform at the event, with guests likely to include Chris Martin’s wife Gwyneth Paltrow and the rapper’s other half Beyoncé.

Cameron and A-Rod are fresh from a week-long Mexican getaway in Cabo San Lucas.

They were joined by his daughters, Natasha, six and Ella, two, and the actress was seen bonding with the two girls at their luxury resort.

Cameron and the New York Yankee star first hooked up back in July this year but the relationship has been somewhat unsteady and the pair split in October.

But since they reunited in November the couple seem to be getting more serious and have become inseparable in recent weeks.

I wonder if we’ll ever see the day where Cameron Diaz and Minka Kelly become the future Mrs. Babe Ruth and Mrs. Lou Gehrig representing their husbands at Old Timer’s Games at the Stadium? Nah, probably not…

July 27, 1957: New York, NY: Mrs. Lou Gehrig (L) and Mrs. Babe Ruth, widows of two of the New York Yankees' all-time greats, are shown as they appeared at old timers' day at Yankee Stadium.

Filed under Off The Field News ·  Print This Post ·  Email This Post