Solid Fool’s Gold: Detours On The Way To Conventional Wisdom
I recently had a chance to read the new Bill James book: Solid Fool’s Gold: Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom.
This book is a collection of articles from James that were previously published at BillJamesOnLine.com – sans one which was a reprint from the 1983 Baseball Abstract. And, it’s not all on baseball. Included in the book are some James features on topics such as tipping, advertising; measuring rainfall, stop lights and the TSA.
Personally, I found the non-baseball stuff interesting. But, the meat of this one, of course, are the articles on baseball.
The baseball articles that stood out the most to me were on “hot” pitchers, a better model for the minor league structure, the 33 best starting rotations of all-time, the worst teams of all time, the best pitching matchups of the 1980′s, and the “Expansion Time Bomb” that will hit the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
Solid Fool’s Gold: Detours on the Way to Conventional Wisdom is a quick read. But, it’s a nice collection of Bill James articles to digest – especially if you didn’t see them when they were at BillJamesOnLine.com (which is a subscription site – albeit just $3 a month to subscribe). Most baseball fans would find something in this new Bill James book to enjoy. It’s worth checking out.
@ Steve Lombardi:
Briefly, what does the book say about “a better model for the minor league structure” and “‘Expansion Time Bomb’ that will hit the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown” because those two piqued my interest.
This may interest you:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/making_minor_leagues_stronger/
And, from http://bezdomnybaseball.blogspot.com/
Last year Bill James wrote an article called “The Expansion Time Bomb.” [Unfortunately it's behind the paywall on his site.] Bill argued that, as baseball has expanded since 1969, so too has the number of players reaching levels “historical achievement” that typically define a Hall of Fame career. In other words, in an expanded league, there will be more players with 3,000 hits, more players with 500 home runs hitters, more 300 game winners, and otherwise more milestones being reached. This seems intuitively true, but it is also very hard to argue, and harder to verify. Still, his main argument is an interesting one (which I paraphrase below):
Most supporters want the Hall of Fame to be an exclusive club. This inherently means restricting membership to a small number of entries per year (or decade, or other time period). As expansion has led to more players with historical levels of achievement, Hall of Fame standards will tighten to levels much more narrow than those used in the past.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
There are certainly more players with 500 HR, but that’s got as much to do with smaller parks, juiced balls, PED’s, better fitness and technological improvements as expansion.
There may be more players with 3,000 hits, I’m just not sure who (after Jeter). I remember George Brett, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs and a couple of others getting to the milestone but I don’t know who the next wave might be once Jeter joins the club. Ichiro could, but he’d have to play another long while. A-Rod? Manny? Dunno, I guess it’s possible.
I don’t buy that there will be more players with 300 wins. Guys like Pettitte and Mussina pitched nearly two decades and only got as close as 20-40 wins away. CC Sabathia might be the guy that has the best shot of doing it since he’s winning a lot of ballgames a year and got an early start on his career. But, honestly, I think it’ll be a very long time before we see another 300 game winner. I think James is wrong about that one.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I agree with Tango’s criticisms of James’s idea but not with his proposed solution.
Frankly, I think the system works well enough as it is.
With the 5 man rotation, it’s harder to win 300 games now, isn’t it? Seems that players now don’t have the durability nor the career length to do it nowadays.
I think Johnny Damon may be next in line after Jeter for 3k hits.
Raf wrote:
According to this, Pudge Rodriguez and Omar Vizquel are after Jeter. I figure both are too old and no longer regulars so they’re probably out. Seems like A-Rod, Manny and Damon are the next three and, due to A-Rod’s contract, he’ll probably have the best shot at it. Damon and Ramirez could honestly be out of baseball in two years’ time which would leave them both just short (at around 2800 each).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/H_active.shtml
What I found interesting was James’s take on Mark McGwire’s HOF credentials in his 2011 Handbook. He said, steroids aside, McGwire really doesn’t look like a HOF candidate based on his accomplishments. He falls just short. This despite hitting 583 HRs and playing in 9 All Star games. Interesting.
@ Jim TreshFan:
I personally think McGwire belongs in the Hall but I can see James’s point. If McGwire hadn’t missed most of the 1993 and 1994 seasons, however, he’d probably be well into the mid-600′s in HR and I have a hard time seeing how the fourth or fifth ranking HR hitter would be left out (separate and apart from steroids).
It could be that McGwire is or was viewed as a one dimensional player. Dave Kingman with a better glove.
Raf wrote:
Yeah, perhaps. But if you’re the best one-dimensional player (or one of the best) then that should get you into Cooperstown.
Is this the book where Bill James does his look at crime stuff? Or is that his next book?
It’s not this book.