Here Come The Rays?
Posted by Steve L. on April 21st, 2011 · Comments (15)
Yes, these are small sample sizes….but…
In their last 9 games, the Tampa Bay Rays are 8-1 and have a team ERA of 1.98 over those 9 games.
And, in their last 9 games, the Yankees are 6-3 and have a team ERA of 3.97 over those 9 games.
Do the Yankees have the pitching to hold off these surging Rays?
Do they have the offense/bullpen to keep it up?
@ clintfsu813:
I think they can find enough arms from their system if push came to shove, but I don’t think they can hit enough.
@ Steve Lombardi:
If the Yanks ever went 8-1 with a team ERA under 2, you’d find a way to discount their record for some reason. Just sayin’.
clintfsu813 wrote:
In my opinion, no, they do not.
Corey Italiano wrote:
I agree completely. I just don’t see this team scoring enough runs over the course of the season to remain competitive beyond a .500 record.
Small sample size, yes. The Yankees are missing much less overall (starting rotation) where we’re 1-2 pieces away from being a monster, assuming the offense is anything like what it is now. The Rays are many more pieces away. Not only is their offense not enough, it’s in the bottom 20% of the AL.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
In their first 9 games, they were 1-8.
Winning and losing streaks are part of the game. Things even out. Seems odd to just pick out the most convenient sample of games for your point.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
The real question is: Do the Rays have enough offense to catch the Yanks?
Well, if you believe that a 1.98 ERA is the ‘real’ Rays…
…and if you believe that they’re going to keep that up for the rest of the season…
…then, no, I don’t believe the Yanks will be able to hold a 2-game lead against a team that pitches to a 1.98 ERA for another 144 games.
Otherwise…nobody knows nuthin’.
@ Greg H.:
It seems like the Yanks starting rotation is more than 1 or 2 away. After Sabathia who else do you have confidence in? Yes Burnett has won 3 games but his ERA is 4.37. Hughes? Nova? Colon? Not me.
I’m not saying I’m all that worried about the Rays but they do have a very good rotation. Yes, their BP and offense doesn’t look good but they’ve been finding ways to win the last few yrs. I don’t completely discount them.
Four words: Kyle Farnsworth, Rays closer.
That is all.
After this post the Rays lose 9-2 at home. Great timing,
Rays have won 20 of their last 27. Watch out Yankeeland.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
But using the Steve Lombardi method of discounting wins, the following characteristics apply to Tampa’s opponents’ during this 27-game stretch:
-Two games vs. the Red Sox who were 2-7 coming into that series;
-Seven games vs. the Twins who have the worst record (12-23) in baseball;
-Four games vs. the White Sox who have the third-worst record (15-23) in baseball;
-Six games vs. the below-.500 Blue Jays; and
-Three games vs. the below-.500 Orioles.
The combined present record of the Rays’ opponents over this 27-game period is 121-134 (.475) thus, based on several years’ worth of analysis on your part, we should infer that the Rays aren’t as good as they might appear to be right now. After all, they’ve only played two teams above .500 thus far this year and are 2-4 against them (Cleveland/Anaheim).
Is my tongue firmly planted in my cheek? Of course. But you’ll realize as you mount your counterargument that you’d only be arguing the opposite side of your own argument whenever you discount Yankee wins.
@ MJ Recanati:
