• In The Year Twenty Thirteen…

    Posted by on May 20th, 2011 · Comments (4)

    Joe Posnanski picks up where I left off in December 2010. It’s a good read.

    Comments on In The Year Twenty Thirteen…

    1. MJ Recanati
      May 20th, 2011 | 7:56 am

      I like Posnanski as a wordsmith and I appreciate how thoughtful he can be. But even the Mighty Pos is capable of blurring facts in order to make a great story.

      1) If he can list CC Sabathia’s contract as one that is not absolute (given his opt-out), why doesn’t he list Rafael Soriano’s contract as similarly un-absolute? After all, Soriano has not just one opt-out clause but two.

      2) His point about Mark Teixeira is somewhat hollow. The fact that there are several first basemen in baseball with similar offensive profiles as Teixeira — he lists Pujols, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Votto, Fielder, Howard and Hosmer — doesn’t make Teixeira’s contract any worse when you consider that Pujols, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Fielder and Howard all make or will make the same amount of money as Teixeira. Posnanski’s intimating that the Yankees’ investment in Teixeira represents diluted value is simply off the mark. Any substitute of Teixieira with one of those other names would’ve yielded the same financial investment.

      I realize that my points don’t change the overall tenor of the discussion — the Yankees are heavily invested in a group of players, most of whom are probably not worth their contracts — but it does highlight the fact that you can make any argument you wish if you don’t care about pinpoint accuracy.

      Also, I might add, the same was said about the Yankees earlier in the decade, when they had aging stars like Mussina, Giambi, Johnson, Matsui and Sheffield on the roster. The fact remains that the Yankees can easily sustain a $200M+ payroll and remain competitive, even with players that are past their primes. Posnanski isn’t breaking any new ground here: his warnings have been heard before and nevertheless been proven overly dramatic.

    2. Raf
      May 20th, 2011 | 8:43 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Also, I might add, the same was said about the Yankees earlier in the decade, when they had aging stars like Mussina, Giambi, Johnson, Matsui and Sheffield on the roster.

      Exactly. The Yankees will be fine. I’ll believe aging stars and bloated contracts a problem with the Yanks when I see it.

    3. Evan3457
      May 20th, 2011 | 5:25 pm

      1) Robinson Cano won’t likely be a problem at age 30.
      2) The Granderson contract is an option year. That problems solves itself. If he’s still productive, you pick up the option because he’s still productive. If he’s not, you don’t.
      3) CC is not going to be a big problem, unless he suffers a major injury. Top flight aces can keep going well beyond age 33.

      Of the remaining 5, two are the product of management above the level of Cashman: A-Rod and Soriano. If they’re not productive, Hank and Hal will have to pony up to make up for their errors, if they want to stay competitive. A similar argument can be made for Jeter.

      That leaves Tex and AJ. AJ will have one year left, and it doesn’t have to be in the rotation if the farm pitchers come through, and it doesn’t have to be the whole season if he’s not effective.

      That leaves Tex as the sole potential unavoidable albatross. Yanks can’t do anything about except hope that he adjusts to the way people are pitching and playing him now.

      I would think that if Jeter continues to decline at the rate he appears to be, he and the Yankees will put their heads together on a buyout/retirement deal, possibly after 2012. You don’t think Jeter will pass up $23 million? Maybe not, but it’s going to be awfully hard for him to live with hitting .213 in 2013. The man has pride with a capital PRIDE.

      ============================================
      In the meantime, as I point out every so often:

      Posada, Swisher and Marte come off the books this season. That’s $26 million.

      Mariano and Granderson come off the books after 2012 (assuming Granderson isn’t worth the option in 2013). That’s $22 million.

      After 2013, Burnett and Soriano come off the books, and Jeter drops from $17 million, to, at most, $8 million That’s almost $40 million.

      The Yanks will have plenty of money to address their needs each season. I suppose if all those players collapse at the same time, then the team will collapse, but that’s highly unlikely to happen.

    4. redbug
      May 20th, 2011 | 5:28 pm

      @ MJ Recanati: why doesn’t he list Rafael Soriano’s contract as similarly un-absolute? After all, Soriano has not just one opt-out clause but two.

      Because, if Soriano has lousy preceding yrs he can decide not to opt out and take 2012:$11M and 2013:$14M.

      Sweet deal. For him.

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