• Putting A Number On Ivan Nova

    Posted by on June 21st, 2011 · Comments (5)

    I was thinking this AM that Ivan Nova is doing pretty good this season for a pitcher his age.  So, I decided to look at pitchers age 25 or younger this year in the majors.  Here’s that list:

    Rk Player WAR IP Year Age Tm G ERA+
    1 Clayton Kershaw 3.2 107.2 2011 23 LAD 16 120
    2 Jair Jurrjens 3.0 89.2 2011 25 ATL 13 182
    3 Jhoulys Chacin 2.8 93.0 2011 23 COL 14 161
    4 Michael Pineda 2.7 88.2 2011 22 SEA 14 140
    5 Trevor Cahill 2.6 100.0 2011 23 OAK 16 121
    6 Gio Gonzalez 2.4 87.0 2011 25 OAK 14 146
    7 Felix Hernandez 2.3 113.1 2011 25 SEA 16 111
    8 Zach Britton 2.2 87.0 2011 23 BAL 14 129
    9 Tommy Hanson 2.1 83.1 2011 24 ATL 14 154
    10 Aaron Crow 1.9 33.2 2011 24 KCR 29 291
    11 Johnny Cueto 1.9 53.2 2011 25 CIN 8 234
    12 Dillon Gee 1.7 66.0 2011 25 NYM 13 131
    13 Matt Harrison 1.7 77.0 2011 25 TEX 13 131
    14 Joshua Collmenter 1.6 60.1 2011 25 ARI 15 191
    15 Daniel Hudson 1.6 101.0 2011 24 ARI 15 112
    16 Madison Bumgarner 1.5 84.0 2011 21 SFG 14 116
    17 Jake Arrieta 1.5 88.0 2011 25 BAL 16 89
    18 Jaime Garcia 1.4 93.0 2011 24 STL 15 113
    19 Jeremy Hellickson 1.3 84.1 2011 24 TBR 13 116
    20 Brett Anderson 1.3 83.1 2011 23 OAK 13 98
    21 David Price 1.2 102.1 2011 25 TBR 15 99
    22 Jonathon Niese 1.2 92.1 2011 24 NYM 15 101
    23 Jordan Zimmermann 1.2 87.2 2011 25 WSN 14 124
    24 Jordan Walden 1.2 31.1 2011 23 LAA 32 144
    25 Tyson Ross 1.1 36.0 2011 24 OAK 9 144
    26 Mike Leake 1.0 71.1 2011 23 CIN 14 97
    27 Carlos Carrasco 1.0 79.0 2011 24 CLE 13 98
    28 Drew Storen 0.9 37.1 2011 23 WSN 35 160
    29 Derek Holland 0.9 94.0 2011 24 TEX 15 88
    30 Brandon Beachy 0.9 44.1 2011 24 ATL 8 112
    31 Craig Kimbrel 0.9 37.0 2011 23 ATL 38 132
    32 Yovani Gallardo 0.9 96.1 2011 25 MIL 16 95
    33 Blake Wood 0.8 31.2 2011 25 KCR 25 152
    34 Tyler Chatwood 0.7 82.0 2011 21 LAA 14 96
    35 Ivan Nova 0.7 80.2 2011 24 NYY 15 99
    36 Chris Tillman 0.6 48.0 2011 23 BAL 10 86
    37 Homer Bailey 0.6 30.0 2011 25 CIN 5 131
    38 Rick Porcello 0.5 75.1 2011 22 DET 13 90
    39 Ryan Webb 0.4 33.2 2011 25 FLA 34 106
    40 Tim Collins 0.4 37.0 2011 21 KCR 35 100
    41 Ernesto Frieri 0.3 35.2 2011 25 SDP 32 107
    42 Danny Duffy 0.3 34.0 2011 22 KCR 7 77
    43 Mat Latos 0.3 75.1 2011 23 SDP 13 86
    44 Travis Wood 0.3 93.1 2011 24 CIN 16 76
    45 Brad Bergesen 0.2 52.1 2011 25 BAL 11 78
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 6/21/2011.

    .
    O.K, so, he’s not one of the best in his age group.  But, he’s still on the positive side – and that’s good.

    Is it just me, or, do more than a few teams have four pitchers on this list? How come the Yankees can’t do that?

    Filed under Math Class · ·

    Comments on Putting A Number On Ivan Nova

    1. clintfsu813
      June 21st, 2011 | 10:15 am

      Without really checking, my guess is that the teams with 4 on this list have: Small payrolls so that most of their money goes to pitching. (Most of them probably have shitty offenses.) They probably also have the benefit of being patient with young starters. Whether we like it or not, the “Win Now” philosophy of NYY causes them to trade young starters/prospects instead of letting them “figure it out” in the Majors. These teams are also likely to be shitty franchises in that they get top picks alot more than the Yanks. I’m good with the Yanks having only 1 or 2 on this list. Those other teams HAVE to build this way, because of their low payrolls. Yanks arent gonna all of a sudden stop signing top FA pitchers over the age of 25.
    2. Raf
      June 21st, 2011 | 11:18 am

      5 teams have 4 pitchers on that list; ATL, OAK, BAL, KCR & CIN. I think you have your answer as to why the Yankees aren’t on that list. Of those 5 teams, only the Braves & Reds are contenders. And they both fairly recently started contending.
    3. Raf
      June 21st, 2011 | 11:26 am

      Now that I think of it, I’d be hard pressed to think of a Yankees’ team that fit the “4 pitcher” criteria. Even when they were bad, they ran some older guys out there.
    4. Greg H.
      June 21st, 2011 | 12:37 pm

      This is an interesting list. A good bunch of these comparison arms are in their second or more season. The top 20 or so, most of them are. I look at it this way – Nova’s giving us innings (many of these comps are still around 30-40 innings) and he doing it in a relatively solid fashion for a young guy. He’s only a half a win worse than David Price, and a tad better than Porcello. I’ll take it. He shut down a very good offense last night.

      I hope I never see the Yanks with 5 pitchers on this list. That would mean our business model, which has served us quite well in the past 15 years, had imploded. Two on this list is more or less ideal, given the Yanks modus operandi.
    5. Evan3457
      June 21st, 2011 | 9:06 pm

      Nova’s doing just fine for his first full season. He has four pitches; throws 92-3 regularly, can top out at 95-6. The Yanks have to give him time to finish his development at the big league level, and you know what? They might wind up with a cheap, dependable #3 starter. Now, wouldn’t that be just awful?

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