• Was September 17, 2010 A-Rod’s Last Super-Clutch Yankees Moment?

    Posted by on July 11th, 2011 · Comments (12)

    If you look at the list of Yankees to have a day where “aLI>=1.25, and WPA>=.35 and RE24=2.5″, then, yes, it could be true.

    Check out this list -

    Here’s the ones to do it for the Yankees since 1994 -

    Rk Player Date Opp Rslt PA R H HR RBI WPA RE24 aLI
    1 Derek Jeter 2011-07-09 TBR W 5-4 5 2 5 1 2 0.377 2.571 1.317
    2 Nick Swisher 2011-06-19 CHC W 10-4 5 1 3 1 4 0.365 2.802 1.745
    3 Alex Rodriguez 2010-09-17 BAL W 4-3 5 2 2 2 4 0.756 3.090 1.418
    4 Alex Rodriguez 2010-08-14 KCR W 8-3 5 3 4 3 5 0.385 4.474 1.257
    5 Alex Rodriguez 2010-05-14 MIN W 8-4 4 1 2 1 4 0.375 2.717 2.233
    6 Derek Jeter 2010-04-30 CHW W 6-4 4 2 3 1 4 0.525 3.947 1.620
    7 Alex Rodriguez 2009-10-04 TBR W 10-2 4 2 3 2 7 0.364 5.346 1.368
    8 Melky Cabrera 2009-08-02 CHW W 8-5 5 3 4 1 4 0.377 3.828 1.370
    9 Mark Teixeira 2009-05-16 MIN W 6-4 5 2 4 1 4 0.719 4.855 1.977
    10 Johnny Damon 2009-05-07 TBR L 6-8 5 1 4 1 4 0.626 4.114 1.412
    11 Xavier Nady 2008-08-03 LAA W 14-9 5 1 4 1 6 0.480 4.397 1.784
    12 Jason Giambi 2008-07-02 TEX W 18-7 5 2 2 1 6 0.625 4.777 1.896
    13 Johnny Damon 2008-06-07 KCR W 12-11 6 1 6 0 4 0.863 3.245 2.099
    14 Alex Rodriguez 2008-06-02 MIN L 5-6 5 2 3 1 2 0.404 2.820 1.670
    15 Johnny Damon 2008-05-27 BAL L 9-10 6 2 4 1 3 0.549 4.094 1.877
    16 Bobby Abreu 2008-04-22 CHW W 9-5 5 1 2 1 4 0.516 3.257 1.578
    17 Alex Rodriguez 2007-09-22 TOR W 12-11 6 2 4 0 3 0.601 3.597 2.145
    18 Derek Jeter 2007-06-28 BAL W 8-7 5 1 2 0 2 0.404 2.638 1.455
    19 Alex Rodriguez 2007-06-23 SFG L 5-6 7 3 4 1 1 0.578 2.790 1.533
    20 Jason Giambi 2006-08-20 BOS W 8-5 5 2 3 2 5 0.474 2.729 2.410
    21 Alex Rodriguez 2006-08-08 CHW L 5-6 5 1 3 1 2 0.432 3.289 1.760
    22 Bernie Williams 2006-06-16 WSN W 7-5 5 3 4 1 2 0.572 2.625 1.340
    23 Alex Rodriguez 2006-05-26 KCR L 6-7 4 0 3 0 1 0.350 2.787 1.442
    24 Gary Sheffield 2005-09-27 BAL L 9-17 5 2 2 2 6 0.466 4.010 1.262
    25 Jason Giambi 2005-08-29 SEA W 7-4 4 2 2 2 4 0.470 3.725 1.405
    26 Gary Sheffield 2005-07-14 BOS W 8-6 5 2 3 1 2 0.375 2.747 1.416
    27 Bernie Williams 2005-07-02 DET W 8-4 5 1 4 1 5 0.367 4.648 1.508
    28 Alex Rodriguez 2005-06-26 NYM W 5-4 5 1 4 0 1 0.606 2.611 2.312
    29 Bernie Williams 2005-06-21 TBD W 20-11 5 1 2 0 5 0.415 2.962 1.938
    30 Hideki Matsui 2005-06-17 CHC W 9-6 5 1 3 1 5 0.453 3.752 1.332
    31 Gary Sheffield 2004-08-23 CLE W 6-4 5 2 1 1 2 0.591 2.903 1.446
    32 Gary Sheffield 2004-08-19 MIN W 13-10 5 3 3 2 5 0.585 4.708 1.252
    33 Tony Clark 2004-07-03 NYM L 9-10 5 3 4 2 3 0.613 4.446 2.480
    34 Gary Sheffield 2004-06-03 BAL W 5-2 4 1 2 0 2 0.387 2.852 1.642
    35 Gary Sheffield 2004-05-26 BAL W 12-9 6 1 4 1 6 0.394 4.231 1.525
    36 Alex Rodriguez 2004-05-11 ANA W 8-7 6 1 3 0 2 0.556 2.894 1.988
    37 Ruben Sierra 2004-05-04 OAK W 10-8 4 1 3 0 3 0.463 3.030 1.510
    38 Nick Johnson 2003-08-08 SEA W 9-7 5 1 4 1 5 0.419 3.904 1.498
    39 Alfonso Soriano 2003-04-26 TEX W 7-5 6 2 3 1 3 0.469 3.074 1.567
    40 Bernie Williams 2002-07-21 BOS W 9-8 5 2 3 1 2 0.633 3.048 1.513
    41 Nick Johnson 2002-07-20 BOS W 9-8 5 3 3 0 2 0.358 2.614 1.784
    42 Shane Spencer 2002-06-10 ARI W 7-5 4 2 3 1 4 0.618 3.653 2.350
    43 Jason Giambi 2002-05-29 CHW W 6-3 5 2 3 2 4 0.363 2.977 2.178
    44 Shane Spencer 2001-09-03 TOR W 7-5 5 1 2 0 1 0.361 2.679 1.579
    45 Bernie Williams 2001-06-30 TBD W 5-4 4 2 2 2 4 0.644 3.465 1.300
    46 Jorge Posada 2001-06-06 BAL W 7-4 1 1 1 1 4 0.401 2.659 6.170
    47 Derek Jeter 2001-05-12 BAL W 8-5 5 1 1 1 3 0.410 3.255 1.874
    48 Derek Jeter 2000-09-23 DET W 13-8 5 3 4 1 4 0.398 3.562 1.342
    49 Jorge Posada 2000-08-23 TEX W 10-9 5 1 3 1 5 0.496 2.932 1.796
    50 Jorge Posada 2000-07-28 MIN W 9-5 5 3 4 1 3 0.649 4.740 2.404
    51 Tino Martinez 2000-07-17 PHI L 8-10 5 1 4 1 4 0.355 4.418 1.706
    52 Scott Brosius 2000-05-07 BAL L 6-7 5 1 2 1 5 0.455 3.258 3.230
    53 Bernie Williams 2000-05-05 BAL W 12-10 5 3 3 1 4 0.540 3.563 1.944
    54 Bernie Williams 2000-04-12 TEX W 8-6 5 2 2 1 3 0.448 2.850 1.518
    55 Bernie Williams 2000-04-04 ANA W 5-3 5 3 3 1 3 0.737 3.524 1.880
    56 Tino Martinez 1999-08-24 TEX W 10-7 6 2 3 1 4 0.507 3.524 2.300
    57 Scott Brosius 1998-08-22 TEX W 12-9 5 3 3 1 3 0.609 3.068 1.600
    58 Tino Martinez 1998-07-02 PHI W 9-8 6 3 3 2 4 0.751 4.453 1.257
    59 Bernie Williams 1998-05-27 CHW L 9-12 5 1 3 1 5 0.483 3.873 1.500
    60 Paul O’Neill 1998-05-26 CHW W 7-5 5 1 2 1 3 0.529 2.585 2.102
    61 Tino Martinez 1998-04-21 TOR W 5-3 5 1 3 0 2 0.406 2.549 1.926
    62 Bernie Williams 1998-04-21 TOR W 5-3 5 1 3 0 1 0.444 2.656 1.876
    63 Jorge Posada 1998-04-05 OAK W 9-7 5 2 3 1 2 0.697 3.472 2.448
    64 Bernie Williams 1997-08-23 SEA W 10-8 7 2 3 0 2 0.371 2.731 2.241
    65 Joe Girardi 1997-08-16 TEX L 5-8 4 0 2 0 2 0.446 2.933 1.880
    66 Tim Raines 1997-08-14 KCR W 10-5 5 2 4 0 3 0.471 2.871 1.526
    67 Tino Martinez 1997-06-29 CLE W 11-10 5 2 2 1 4 0.372 3.204 1.584
    68 Paul O’Neill 1996-07-17 BOS L 11-12 6 3 4 1 2 0.369 3.199 1.683
    69 Bernie Williams 1996-04-26 MIN W 5-4 4 1 2 1 4 0.392 2.627 1.538
    70 Tony Fernandez 1995-09-03 OAK L 9-10 5 3 4 1 3 0.581 3.831 1.422
    71 Mike Stanley 1995-08-10 (1) CLE L 9-10 4 3 3 3 7 0.505 4.997 1.628
    72 Jim Leyritz 1995-06-11 SEA W 10-7 5 1 4 0 2 0.459 2.820 2.194
    73 Dion James 1995-05-11 TOR W 12-11 2 1 2 0 3 0.379 2.825 1.450
    74 Mike Stanley 1994-07-27 BOS W 4-3 4 2 3 2 3 0.525 3.693 1.368
    75 Daryl Boston 1994-06-20 MIN W 7-5 1 1 1 1 3 0.597 2.579 5.090
    76 Paul O’Neill 1994-05-07 BOS W 6-5 5 1 2 0 0 0.355 2.506 2.245
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 7/11/2011.

    .
    So, why point out A-Rod’s date here?

    Just thought it was interesting that we could see a situation where the Yankees clean-up hitter’s last two “super clutch moments” were a year part…assuming Alex is out for the next six weeks or so.

    In any event, this is a fun list.  How many of these big days, prior to Jeter’s day Saturday, do you remember the most?

    Comments on Was September 17, 2010 A-Rod’s Last Super-Clutch Yankees Moment?

    1. bags
      July 11th, 2011 | 3:56 pm

      A different way to comment on this list would go something like this:

      There have only been ten “super clutch” Yankee performances in the last 2 and a half seasons. DJ and Arod are the only players on the team to have multiple super clutch games. And Arod has twice as many as Jeter with 4, to Jeter’s 2.

      In fact, Arod has been responsible for one third of the last 30 super clutch performances. Nobody else in that timeframe has more than three.

      Wow. We’re going to really miss Arod for the next 4-6 weeks. He’s the clutchiest player we’ve had in years.

    2. July 11th, 2011 | 4:21 pm

      @ bags:

      You could take it a step further, and say, since 2004, A-Rod has Jeter beat 11-3 on this list since 2004.

      But, the past is the past. And, the fact of the matter is that A-Rod has yet to produce such a game/effort like this since last September. And, at this rate, it may not be until this September, if that, where he produces another one.

      And, that’s the point here.

    3. bags
      July 11th, 2011 | 6:27 pm

      that’s fine but it isn’t an especially revealing point.

      you aren’t taking into account the rarity of this type of performance. they only come along an average of 4 times per year for an entire team.

      and on an individual level, even for an amazing player like arod, they come along on average of 1.4 times per year. so the fact that he hasn’t had one this year isn’t shocking. or particularly revealing.

      he had only one each in the 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2009 seasons.

      so the only really new bit of news contained in your point is that he’s hurt till september. everything else is pretty much in alignment with historical trends.

      it is fine for you to be annoyed that he’s hurt. but these stats don’t really help you make that point.

    4. July 11th, 2011 | 8:00 pm

      I would agree that the very best players usually only have one or two games like this a season.

      But, A-Rod has not had one in the last three months, won’t have one in the next month, and maybe may never have another one until…2012, if that?

      Bags, honestly, you think A-Rod is just as good as he ever was?

    5. bags
      July 11th, 2011 | 8:25 pm

      ha. no. he’s getting worse. because players on the other side of 27 or 30 or whatever always get worse, not better. it is human physiology.

      the reason i seem to be picking a fight over this is because i think you use data in the wrong way. you don’t use it for enlightenment. you use it to support the biases you already have.

      Arod is getting older and therefore worse. But the data you’ve chosen to make that case mostly makes the argument that he’s an incredibly awesome player. Waaaaay better than the players we tend to venerate (bernie, jeter, tino, o’neill, and good god even brosius).

      You look at data and see what you want to see. Not what it really tells you to see. Which is fine and human. But it isn’t fair for you to fight back and suggest that the data supports an argument it really doesn’t.

      okay. sorry. i’ll go back to telling the kids to get off my lawn.

    6. July 11th, 2011 | 10:26 pm

      When I see A-Rod, I see a guy whose OPS+ used to be in the 130′s. Then, he started juicing, and his OPS+ was more in the 160-170 range. But, in the last 3 years, it’s back to the 130′s – and he’s just 35 this season…it’s not like he’s close to 40.

      Is he better than average? Sure, when he manages to stay on the field.

      But, he’s not great anymore. And, I wonder if he has any great moments left? Or, at the least, the ability to have a few great moments per season.

      That’s my point here. Dat’s it.

    7. throwstrikes
      July 11th, 2011 | 10:51 pm

      “So, why point out A-Rod’s date here?”

      Because if you think there’s a scab to pick with A-Rod you enjoy doing it?

    8. LMJ229
      July 11th, 2011 | 11:07 pm

      So, according to your parameters, there have only been 2 “super clutch” performances since then? I’m sorry but this is so ridiculous its not even worth debating.

    9. LMJ229
      July 11th, 2011 | 11:36 pm

      OK I’m breaking my own rule … I have to agree with bags, the data you presented merely demonstrates the fact that A-Rod has been our most “super clutch” performer over the past 5 years.

      If you want to make the point that A-Rod is not the player he once was, fine, I’m sure we can all buy that. Just look at his stats in 2008, 2009, 2010 and this year, combined with the fact that he has spent time on the DL in each of those years. That’s all you need to point out.

    10. bags
      July 12th, 2011 | 10:14 am

      steve, i’m gonna shut up on my topic after this. promise.

      just try to accept what I am saying. you don’t even have to acknowledge it. just see if it rings true for you at all.

      the very fact that you closed out this line of logic by citing Arod’s OPS+ instead of the whole “super clutch” thing supports my argument that you are using data to support your pre-existing biases.

      it might be cool if you looked at data sometimes — and I like it when you do that — and let it tell you what it tells you. instead of what you want it to tell you.

      i’m just sayin’.

    11. July 12th, 2011 | 12:03 pm

      If you knew how many theories I have trashed – before sharing – because the numbers don’t support them, you would be surprised. It happens a lot.

    12. bags
      July 12th, 2011 | 12:39 pm

      okay. cool. i get it. thanks.

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