• The Secret Behind Bartolo Colon & Freddy Garcia’s Success

    Posted by on August 1st, 2011 · Comments (13)

    It’s who they face. Check the stats.

    To date, this season, Bartolo Colon has faced a team with a winning percentage of .500 or better in 13 games (with 11 coming as a starter). He’s thrown 69 innings in this situation and his ERA is 4.57 (when facing these teams). Over these games, he’s faced 300 batters and allowed an OPS of .797 (and 11 homeruns).

    To date, this season, Bartolo Colon has faced a team with a winning percentage less than .500 in 6 games (with 5 coming as a starter). He’s thrown 40 innings in this situation and his ERA is 1.13 (when facing these teams). Over these games, he’s faced 153 batters and allowed an OPS of .517 (and zero homeruns).

    To date, this season, Freddy Garcia has faced a team with a winning percentage of .500 or better in 13 games (with 12 coming as a starter). He’s thrown 70.2 innings in this situation and his ERA is 3.82 (when facing these teams). Over these games, he’s faced 310 batters and allowed an OPS of .797 (and 7 homeruns).

    To date, this season, Freddy Garcia has faced a team with a winning percentage less than .500 in 7 games (all as a starter). He’s thrown 46.2 innings in this situation and his ERA is 2.31 (when facing these teams). Over these games, he’s faced 185 batters and allowed an OPS of .616 (and 2 homeruns).

    If the overall numbers of Colon and Garcia look good this year, to date, it’s because they really feasted on some bad teams.

    Comments on The Secret Behind Bartolo Colon & Freddy Garcia’s Success

    1. Scout
      August 1st, 2011 | 5:51 pm

      “He’s thrown 70.2 innings in this situation and his ERA is 3.82 (when facing these teams).” I have to say that a 3.82 ERA against good teams is just fine. Sign me up for that any day.

      I suspect you’ll find a similar pattern for nearly anyone who isn’t named C.C., Verlander, or Lester.

    2. Evan3457
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:03 pm

      Or, to put it another way:

      Garcia has an ERA of 3.11 in 63 2/3 innings pitched against teams over .500 not named “Red Sox”.

      Colon’s made 11 starts against teams over .500, and his ERA is 4.45 against them.

    3. Evan3457
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:06 pm

      By the way, did you know that CC Sabathia has an ERA of 3.14 vs teams over .500, but an ERA of 1.50 vs teams under .500?

    4. Evan3457
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:07 pm

      And his ERA vs. the Red Sox is 6.16 so far this year.

    5. Evan3457
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:15 pm

      John Lackey: 3.25 vs losing teams and 8.21 vs winning teams.
      Jon Lester: 2.66 vs. losing teams, and 4.64 vs. winning teams.
      Derek Holland: 3.14 vs. losing teams, and 5.40 vs. winning teams.
      Colby Lewis: 3.19 vs. losing teams, and 5.13 vs winning teams.

      Garcia’s ERA spread is not that unusual. Colon’s is, but in his case, he’s pitched better against the Red Sox so far than other teams over .500. So I’m not sure it means as much as it might appear.

    6. 77yankees
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:27 pm

      So if C.C. had thrown that perfect game vs. Seattle, there would have been a ho-hum asterisk next to it because it came against the Mariners, correct?

    7. Mishka
      August 1st, 2011 | 8:35 pm

      @ 77yankees:
      Any achievements and good performances against teams with a losing record shall be discarded or discounted.

    8. SteveF
      August 1st, 2011 | 9:30 pm

      Looking over the Garcia numbers, I’d characterize his success as follows:

      1. Lucky HR rate on fly balls. Given his G/F ratio (.83) you’d expect more than .6 HR per 9.

      2. Good command of breaking pitches. He throws his fastball roughly 37% of the time while maintaining a relatively low walk rate. His first pitch strike percentage is quite high (65%) for someone who doesn’t throw a lot of fastballs.

      3. Hitters chase pitches out of the zone and take pitches in the zone at what appear to be above average league rates. In other words, he’s fooling guys. This you probably already knew.

      Fangraphs is a pretty amazing source of information.

    9. LMJ229
      August 1st, 2011 | 10:22 pm

      One or two bad starts in a small sample can really drive up a guy’s ERA. Both Freddie Garcia and Bartolo Colon have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 9 of the 13 games against a team with a winning percentage of .500 or better. In total, Garcia has a quality start percentage of 68% while Colon’s is 63%. By comparison, CC is at 65%.

      The thing that would really worry me is that both seem to have alot of trouble with the Red Sox, especially Garcia.

    10. KPOcala
      August 1st, 2011 | 11:24 pm

      Perhaps back of the rotation starters v other teams’s back end starters even out over time. Amazing, isn’t it, that a team with no rotation and the Ancient Shortstop are ONE GAME behind the team that The Genius of Boston schemed to put together. It must be smoke and mirrors that the Yankees on 8/1 have the best run differential in MLB.
      Good pick-up by The Genius getting the aptly named Lackey for Burnett money. And with Lars Anderson hitting and playing first first base like Stan Musiel, oh wait, that was Peter Gammons’ dream from a few years ago.

      While I’m on this rant, notice how many “home-grown” players the Red Sox have on their 25 man roster. It’s almost as though The Genius has “bought” or is trying to buy a championship, no?

    11. Jim TreshFan
      August 2nd, 2011 | 2:24 am

      !!!!NEWS FLASH!!!!

      Bad teams are easier to beat.

    12. Garcia
      August 2nd, 2011 | 10:12 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      John Lackey: 3.25 vs losing teams and 8.21 vs winning teams.
      Jon Lester: 2.66 vs. losing teams, and 4.64 vs. winning teams.
      Derek Holland: 3.14 vs. losing teams, and 5.40 vs. winning teams.
      Colby Lewis: 3.19 vs. losing teams, and 5.13 vs winning teams.
      Garcia’s ERA spread is not that unusual. Colon’s is, but in his case, he’s pitched better against the Red Sox so far than other teams over .500. So I’m not sure it means as much as it might appear.

      hahaha!! Oh, but why throw out such facts? Steve will just ignore them, and the moral of the story is that the Yanks suck because they beat-up on teams that suck just like them. Duh!! !Winning!

    13. LMJ229
      August 2nd, 2011 | 10:46 pm

      Jim TreshFan wrote:

      !!!!NEWS FLASH!!!!Bad teams are easier to beat.

      LOL! That pretty much says it all.

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