• One More With The Birds & Then Up To The Fens For Three

    Posted by on August 29th, 2011 · Comments (4)

    Just 21 games ago, on August 5th, the Yankees were in 1st place – up by a game. And, now, they’re 2 games back of first, looking up at Boston.

    Then again, since New York has gone 10-10 in their last 20 games, should we be surprised by this?

    It’s the pitching. In their last 20 games, the Yankees ERA is 5.00 (in 176.3 IP)

    In any event, the Yankees will make the post-season this year. But, what happens there – especially if they pitch like they have lately – will be ugly. We – meaning Yankees fans – should go into October with ZERO expectations and just take the good, if it comes, and be happy with that.

    Don’t count on #28 happening this year. Sure, anything can happen – but, the odds are really against it happening this year – with this starting rotation.

    Now, that all said…

    The Yankees do close out the season with 9 games against the Red Sox and Rays. And, if the wildcard chase gets closer before that time, Boston and Tampa could knock the Yankees out of the post-season. If that happens, it would be a huge collapse by the Yankees…really, major, bad news.

    Comments on One More With The Birds & Then Up To The Fens For Three

    1. Evan3457
      August 29th, 2011 | 12:05 pm

      A couple of caveats:

      If you take out AJ Burnett’s 4 starts from the last 20 games — and this is justified, because as it stands now, he can’t be in the post-season rotation — then the team’s ERA in the other 16 games is down to 4.27, which also includes CC’s worst stretch of the season. And if CC is going to pitch like he has the last 4 games, then the Yanks never really had much hope to begin with.

      Oh, 2nd caveat: the Texas Rangers (the team most likely to meet the Yanks in the 1st round), have an ERA of 4.78 in their last 20 games, going 12-8. The Angels, the team the Yanks might face instead of Texas, have an ERA of 4.68 in their last 20, going 10-10 themselves. And they’ve taken to starting their two aces on 3 days’ rest, out of desperation. In late August.

      The Tigers are pitching pretty well, and they have Verlander to start 2 games out of 5. But that appears to be the Red Sox’ problem at this point. With the exception of Wakefield, more or less, the Sox are pitching well.

    2. Evan3457
      August 29th, 2011 | 12:11 pm

      Tampa continues to play very well; Jennings has closed the Sam Fuld black hole in their lineup. 14-5 in their last 19. 30 games left for them; if they can keep that up, and go 22-8, that puts them at 95-67 for the year.

      Even then, the Yanks have to go 16-15 to tie them, and 17-14 to beat them by a game.

    3. EHawk
      August 30th, 2011 | 2:28 am

      @ Evan3457:
      That is not going to happen. Rays have had a cupcake schedule in Aug with a lot of home games and playing bad teams. They have problems scoring and playing better teams…they have probably the toughest schedule the rest of the way with 6 games against Texas, 7 against the Red Sox and 7 against the Yanks. I live in Tampa and see a lot of the Rays….I don’t see anyway they will be able to get into the Wildcard spot with that schedule. It would take the Yanks playing sub .500 ball the rest of the way

    4. Evan3457
      August 30th, 2011 | 11:05 am

      EHawk wrote:

      @ Evan3457:
      That is not going to happen. Rays have had a cupcake schedule in Aug with a lot of home games and playing bad teams. They have problems scoring and playing better teams…they have probably the toughest schedule the rest of the way with 6 games against Texas, 7 against the Red Sox and 7 against the Yanks. I live in Tampa and see a lot of the Rays….I don’t see anyway they will be able to get into the Wildcard spot with that schedule. It would take the Yanks playing sub .500 ball the rest of the way

      Oh, I agree. I was projecting a worse-case scenario, and pointing out that the Yanks still had a very good chance to hold them off.

      I didn’t make that clear, and I should’ve.

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