Don’t look now, but, the Yankees have lost 7 of their last 11 games.

That’s not exactly a strong kick with the finish line in sight, is it?

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I totally missed yesterday’s Yankees game.

We had our first Fall Ball Little League game of this season. I’m managing the team, so, we left the house around 11:15 AM to be at the field at 11:30 AM. The game ended around 1:15 PM. But, I was talking to some of the parents after the game. And, then we went out for lunch. After that, I had to run out and replace some on the instant ice packs that we used in the game and check out some fields for practice next week. (No huge injuries in the game – just some bumps, etc.) I’m guessing we got home sometime after 4 PM – thereabouts.

I called my father when we got home and he said “Are you watching the game?” At first, by his tone, I thought “Oh, crap, someone is throwing a no-hitter and I’m missing it.” So, I told him, “No, we just got in.” And, then, he said “Mo is putting the final touches on #601 right now.”

We had to go back out to run some errands and we didn’t get home for a few hours. I had no time to check out what happened in the game, in detail. But, I saw some comments here posted where folks were excited about A-Rod and Granderson hitting homers…and Rivera tying Hoffman. And, of course, taking another digit off the magic number.

Eventually, I saw the highlights on Yankees.com. Granderson’s 12-pitch AB was impressive. And, A-Rod’s homer did put the Yankees back in the game. Rivera was classic. You’d never know that was #601 by his reaction. The guy is such a pro.

That all said, the huge issue from this game – which it seems is getting ignored or over-looked – is the outing by Bartolo Colon. He was terrible…and his season ERA is now bumping up against four.

Many out there feel that, if Game 2 of the ALDS is on the road for the Yankees – and that still could happen – that Girardi would want a vet on the mound…and save Nova for a start at home. Well, if that happens, it means Colon is starting Game 2. (Girardi has said in the past that he likes the fact Bartolo’s pitched in the post-season before and won’t be rattled on the road.)

Sabathia has not been good the last seven weeks or so, overall. He’s no lock for a “W” in the post-season at this point. And, if Colon is going to pitch Game 2, like he did yesterday and has been doing lately, the Yankees are going to find themselves 0-2 in a hurry in the ALDS.

I know…”But Colon was crap in this game and the Yankees won.” Sure. Go with that. However, this is the Toronto Blue Jays in September and not the Tigers or Rangers in October. That’s a whole different kind of pitching staff…and one not likely to allow five something runs on homeruns.

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Sweet bunt!

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It’s amazing what he’s done for the Tigers.  Seeing this, you would hope that Cashman, at the least, kicked the tires on him at the trading deadline.  (I’m assuming no – since Cashman’s CYA M.O. in situations like this is to usually come out and say “We were interested, but, we thought the cost was too high and I wasn’t going to give up my valuable chips.”)

Plus, as we know, after the Cliff Lee mess last year, the odds of the Yankees dealing the M’s are not high as long as Jack “Z” is still their G.M.

Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees will still win the A.L. East without Fister.  Or, at the least, they will still make the post-season.  And, if they don’t, their issue will be bigger than “They didn’t trade for Fister.”  But, the way this guy is pitching, it would be nice to have him on our side in the post-season…and not having to face him in October down the line.

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Coming into this evening’s game, CC Sabathia, in his last seven starts, had an ERA of 4.34 (in 47.6 IP). During this time, he faced 208 batters and allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .314/.351/.518 (in those seven games). And, now, tonight, he throws another dud.

Face it, over August and September, to date, Sabathia has pitched like a slob. And, he CC does this in October, the Yankees have zero chance at #28.

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Ah, one of my favorite baseball topics.  ESPN.com recently offered this list:

Largest September Leads Among Teams Failing to Make Postseason

MLB History (Source: Elias)

(more…)

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Nope, not #22 and #46 from Texas…

It’s this great story.

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.
I wonder, if given the chance to trade in some of his 600-something career regular season saves, in exchange for taking Game 7 of the 2001 World Series and Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS off his record, how many would Mariano Rivera be willing to exchange?

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The Tampa Bay Rays are eight games back of the Yankees in the loss column.
The Boston Red Sox are five games back of the Yankees in the loss column.

The Rays have seven games left with the Yankees. The Red Sox have three games left with the Yankees.

So, sure, even with just 14 games left to the Yankees season, it’s not impossible for the Rays or Red Sox to pass them in the standings. But, is it going to happen? I think almost everyone would have to doubt it. Right?

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Via Mark Feinsand -

October. That’s all Alex Rodriguez is thinking about these days.

It’s hard to blame A-Rod for wanting to put the regular season in the rear-view mirror after enduring an injury-riddled second half that has seen him play only 10 games.

“There’s no question that we’re in a franchise that, the most important month is October,” Rodriguez said. “Obviously with a good performance and the team attaining its goal, I think everyone would agree that everything would be forgotten.”

A-Rod wasn’t having a monster first half by his lofty standards, but his .295 average, 13 home runs and 52 RBI were good enough to earn him a spot on his 14th American League All-Star team. But instead of playing in Phoenix, the third baseman was in Miami, undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee.

Six weeks later, A-Rod returned to the lineup in Minnesota, excited to contribute down the stretch as the Yankees chased down another AL East title.

It took less than nine innings for another injury to strike – one that altered the course of the rest of his season.

A-Rod suffered a sprained left thumb in the eighth inning against the Twins in his first game back, falling on his glove as he dove for a Joe Mauer ground ball. Rodriguez has played in only nine of the 23 games since suffering the injury, unable to play more than three days in a row.

“It’s one of the most frustrating stretches of my career, just to be sitting back and watching,” Rodriguez said. “To have a good rehab on my knee and then on the first – literally – play they hit to me, to do this to my thumb is just kind of a freaky thing. Very frustrating.”

Rodriguez tried to play through the injury, but it was clear that his thumb was keeping him from driving the ball. He has hit .226 with two home runs and four RBI in nine games since hurting his thumb.

Know what I think of when I read this? What A-Rod said before this season, back in March, also via Mark Feinsand -

Alex Rodriguez isn’t forecasting any numbers for himself this season, but there is one that he has his sights set on above all others: 150.

That’s the minimum number of games the 35-year-old third baseman is hoping to play, something he hasn’t been able to do since his 2007 American League MVP campaign.

“It starts with games played,” Rodriguez said. “You need to post up a high number; I think 150 is always a good starting point. Without that, obviously you can’t do some of the special things that happened in ’07 and other years.”

Ah, promises, promises…

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Via the AP -

[The Mets] lost [their] sixth straight, one shy of its longest skid this season, and finished 1-8 on the penultimate homestand of the year. The sluggish Mets (71-79) managed five runs in the four-game series and were outscored 48-26 on the homestand.

Moments after the latest loss, Collins said he was “disgusted” with how his team has been playing and took the blame for the poor performance.

“The perception I have right now: We folded it up. And I won’t stand for that,” he said. “You want to see me be intense? You guys are going to see it. I don’t play that game.”

After fighting through some critical injuries to stay competitive most of the season, the Mets are stumbling to the finish. It’s an all-too-familiar refrain, even for the contending teams they fielded a few years ago.

As a tight game turned into a rout in the late innings Thursday, third baseman David Wright committed his sixth error in six games and eighth in the last 10 before a sparse crowd of 22,205 on a dreary afternoon.

There are a handful of things that I don’t like about the Yankees. But, there are many, many, things that I love about the Yankees. And, one of those things is “They’re not the Mets.”

Gosh, is that franchise a mess, or what? I feel sorry for their fans. If ever there was a team that needs a reboot, it’s the Mets.

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This one looks good.  It’s on this Sunday.  Here’s the press release:

BOB COSTAS NARRATES THE EVOLUTION OF STATISTICS IN BEHIND THE SEAMS: THE STAT STORY ON SEPTEMBER 18 AT 10:00 P.M. ET 

Documentary from MLB Productions Features Interviews with Hall of Famers, Managers, Current Players and Sabermetricians

 Author Bill James Discusses How His Analysis of Statistics Broke the Baseball Mold 

Secaucus, N.J., September 13, 2011 – From awarding a player a base hit to the rise of sabermetrics, the evolution of statistics in Major League Baseball is the focus of Behind the Seams: The Stat Story, a special produced for MLB Network by MLB Productions, premiering Sunday, September 18 at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Behind the Seams: The Stat Story will feature statisticians and experts, including Elias Sports Bureau’s Steve Hirdt, MLB’s official historian John Thorn, Baseball-Reference.com’s Sean Forman, Sports Illustrated’s Joe Sheehan, Fangraphs.com contributor Jonah Keri, New York Times writer Alan Schwarz, Rotisserie League Baseball creator Dan Okrent and SB Nation’s Rob Neyer discussing the history of baseball statistics, highlighted by the formation of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).

The hour-long documentary will feature current general managers, managers and players, including Sandy Alderson, Billy Beane, Tony La Russa and Jered Weaver explaining how in-depth statistical research have influenced their decisions in baseball today and the growth of fantasy baseball, and Hall of Famers Lou Brock, Tony Gwynn, Tommy Lasorda and Earl Weaver describe the advantages and disadvantages to using statistics during games. Plus, author Bill James, the Boston Red Sox senior adviser on baseball operations, tells his story from being a security guard in Kansas to the leading pioneer of a statistical revolution that culminated with the Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez winning the 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award with a 13-12 record. 

Quotes from Behind the Seams: The Stat Story include:

 Hall of Famer Lou Brock: The point about statistics – and I was a math major – is that we can make those things work any way we want them to work, but can a player deliver in the clutch? I don’t think computers can gather that and produce that for a manager.

 Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn: As a former baseball player, I can’t tell how you many times people came up to me and said, “You know what man, you’re a good hitter, but you don’t steal enough bases.” 

Hall of Famer Tommy Lasorda: Today, they manage with statistics. You can’t do it. Statistics are lies. Believe me, they’re lies.

 Author Bill James: When you go to a game, the team that wins is the team that has a better number on the scoreboard at the end of the game, and that central fact makes all the other numbers really important.

 MLB Official Historian John Thorn: What Bill James was saying was the old adage, “Things are not what they seem.” Being a .300 hitter if you only draw 20 walks in 600 plate appearances may not be such a good thing.  

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Pitcher Jered Weaver: When you’re doing good, all the fantasy players say, “Hey, I’m so glad I picked you up.” But if you’re not doing so good they start talking about who they want to trade you for.  [Fantasy players say,] “I’m getting ready to trade you if you keep this up.”

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Tom Verducci wrote this about Mark Teixeira eight months ago -

Is Mark Teixeira facing a dip in his career? The New York Yankees first baseman turns 31 in April and is coming off a season in which he hit .256 — 34 points below his lifetime average entering the year (.290). I recently had an interesting discussion with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long about Teixeira’s approach and mechanics and how they are due for adjustments. Three areas stand out for a tuneup:

• Poor starts. Teixeira is a career .235/.342/.411 hitter in April. He basically writes off the first month of his season. To buck this trend, Long is working with Teixeira on taking more swings before spring training begins, as well as making suggestions to tweak the intense pregame workout regimen of Teixeira, a fitness freak.

• Unorthodox mechanics. Teixeira collapses his back side as he hits, rather than driving through the ball with his back side while letting his back foot fully pivot. The style has worked for Teixeira, an accomplished slugger. But the style means that Teixeira must catch the ball out in front and leaves him prone to lifting the ball rather than driving through it. As he ages, Teixeira becomes an even more extreme fly ball and pull hitter, trends that mean he will continue to lose points off his batting average.

• Opposite-field hitting. Teixeira always has been a pull hitter from both sides of the plate, but he virtually gave up hitting the ball the other way last season. From 2003 through ’09 Teixeira had between 14 and 22 opposite-field hits each season. Last year he managed only seven.

Long is not about to turn Teixeira into the next Rod Carew, slapping balls the other way. But he believes that if Teixeira makes the adjustment to drive his back side through the ball rather than collapsing it, he will maintain his slugging but also add to his batting average because he will be able to drive the ball to all fields. Long introduced similar adjustments for Nick Swisher last year. What happened? Swisher, a career .245 hitter, batted .288, 43 points above his career average.

Without adjustments, Teixeira is likely to lose more hits into overshifted defenses and lose chunks of points off his batting average as he ages through his 30s and loses the timing and bat speed advantages of youth. If he needs further proof, he can examine the careers of hitters such as Jason Giambi and J.D. Drew. They were versatile, dangerous all-fields hitters through their 20s, but as they aged they worked the ball more and more out in front of them and defenses began overshifting more and more against them to the pull field.

By the way, today, Mark Teixeira’s batting average is .246.

What’s the problem? When he bats from the left-side, he’s all or nothing:

.

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Thank you, Boston Red Sox. Too bad it’s not ten. Nova deserved better last night.

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I heard a piece of Mike & Mike on ESPN Radio this morning where someone suggested that Major League Baseball, after Mo retires, should create a “Mariano Rivera Award” and give it to the best relief pitcher in the game each season – like the Cy Young Award and MVP Award.

There are so many reasons why this would be the right – and smart – thing for baseball to do.  Sadly, that’s why it will probably never happen…

And, for the record, I think it’s a great idea.

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1912 – Doc Crandell becomes  first pitcher with 100 career Games Finished

1930 – Firpo Marberry becomes first pitcher with 200 career Games Finiehed

1962 – Elroy Face becomes first pitcher with 300 career Games Finished

1964 – Elroy Face becomes first pitcher with 400 career Games Finished

1967 – Hoyt Wilhelm becomes first pitcher with 500 career Games Finished

1971 – Hoyt Wilhelm becomes first pitcher with 600 career Games Finished

1985 – Rollie Fingers becomes first pitcher with 700 career Games Finished

1997 – Lee Smith becomes first pitcher with 800 career Games Finished

2012 – Mariano Rivera will become first pitcher with 900 career Games Finished

(He currently has 879)

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Bill James once opined that on the average you will see at least one future Hall of Famer in every half inning of play in any MLB game.  Well last night a future first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher got his 600th career save when a future first ballot Hall of Fame baserunner was tagged out by a future  first ballot Hall of Fame shortstop.  That’s a nifty clip for Cooperstown.

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I’m just saying…

Of course, if he was wearing a Red Sox hat, and his name was Kevin Millar, we would hate him. But, since he’s a Yankee, ‘natch, he’s a wonderful guy.

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Well, most likely not.  But if you’re a Yankees fan living in the Rochester area you’re proud as punch of Cito Culver:

Cito Culver and Brian Dupra meet in NYPL Championship Series

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Tweet from Mark Teixeira today -

Gee, Mark, maybe if you get your batting average up to a respectable level, then the booing that’s about to start at home won’t happen too!

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Given the date, the standings, how many games are left, what’s going on with the Red Sox and Rays, the starting pitcher they were facing, and who would be starting for the Yankees in the next game (today), could you say that this was one of the biggest wins of the season for the Yankees in 2011?

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Yup, that’s what I’m calling it, as of today.

The Yankees will go 8-9 to close out the year and win 96 games on the season.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox will go 8-8 and the Rays will go 12-5. That will give each of them 93 wins on the year.

And, the Yankees will win the A.L. East by three games.

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Via Phil Rogers -

Theo Epstein is bored in Boston. Brian Cashman tires of having Yankees President Randy Levine and two Steinbrenner brothers tell him what to do.

That’s what Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts is hearing when he asks about the possibility of bringing Epstein or Cashman to Chicago. Along with the chance to explore the interest of the Rays’ Andrew Friedman and possibly the A’s Billy Beane, it’s why the Cubs’ search for a general manager is ambling along, no end in sight.

Ricketts is a patient guy. That’s why he took almost two years to decide Jim Hendry wasn’t his cup of cappuccino. He views his stewardship in terms of decades, not seasons, so he’s comfortable waiting until November to have Hendry’s replacement in place.

Here’s a wild thought – if Epstein goes to the Cubs, would the Red Sox make a run at Cashman? I doubt it. But, boy, would Brian love to have that leverage…

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Sounds crazy, right? But, think about it.

Assuming the Yankees don’t blow it, make the post-season, and get past the ALDS, what happens if the Wild Card team also wins their ALDS? As Yankees fans, in this situation, who would you rather face in the ALCS – Boston or Tampa Bay?

Yes, I know that the Red Sox have owned the Yankees in regular season play this year. But, Boston is on life-support right now. Their pitching is a mess. And, the Rays have a deep and talented staff. Granted, the Red Sox hit better than the Rays. And, Boston seems to have a way of dealing with Sabathia. But, still, at this point, I’m thinking I want to avoid the Rays in October.

Of course, this all assumes that “the other team” from the East can get by the Tigers, Rangers or Angels – whomever it is that they play. And, that might be a reach – especially the way that the Tigers are playing these days.

In any event, while it’s fun to see the Red Sox choke-up their play-off berth, maybe Yankees fans should be rooting for them to hold off the Rays?

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I cannot imagine a better feeling for a dad and brothers, who love baseball, than what these three experienced today. What a story. Amazing.

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Via NESN -

We know that a Boston Red Sox collapse or a Tampa Bay Rays comeback, however you want to put it, would be extremely notable. In fact, both would rank among the largest in baseball history, right up there with those you hear about from your father’s father.

The Red Sox held a nine-game lead over the Rays on Sept. 3. Based on coolstandings.com, which simulates the remainders of seasons one million times to determine playoff chances, Boston finished that day with a season-high 99.6 percent chance of making the postseason.

Essentially, the site’s engine calculated that if the rest of the season was played out a million times, the Red Sox would make the playoffs roughly 996,000 times and miss it about 4,000 times.

We are not suggesting that Boston will completely fall apart, and a 4 1/2-game lead with 18 games to play remains sizable. But if the club somehow missed the playoffs, it would rank as the third-largest collapse in major league history, just behind the 1995 California Angels, who peaked with a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs on Aug. 24, and the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, who blew a 99.7 percent opportunity after Aug. 13.

Both of those teams were forced into a playoff to decide the postseason entrant. As we all know, they both lost.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has a chance to record the sixth-greatest comeback based on the percentages. It began play on Sept. 4 with a 0.5 percent chance to reach October. According to coolstandings.com, only five teams have ever rallied from a smaller percentage — the 1914 Boston Braves, the 2005 Houston Astros, the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1973 New York Mets and the 1951 New York Giants, who caught those Dodgers with just a few days to spare in the regular season.

For the record, on September 6th, the Yankees had a 10 game loss-column lead over the Rays and a 3 game loss-column lead over the Red Sox. And, now, as we head into today’s game, it’s seven and three games. I wonder what the game-spread will be on September 19th?

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Three weeks ago, I warned about this happening.  So, is something very bad on the Yankees horizon?

Check out the A.L. East standing as of this morning:

Tm     W  L  Strk
NYY   87 57   L 4
BOS   85 60   L 4
TBR   80 64   W 3

The Yankees are just 3 games ahead, in the loss column, in the Wildcard chase – over Boston. And, the Rays are just four games back, in the loss column, of the Wildcard.

Now, factor in that the Rays have 5 games left to play with the Red Sox and 7 games left to play with the Yankees. And, the Yankees and Red Sox have 3 games left to play against each other.

If the Rays keep winning, and, if Boston takes those three games against the Yankees, is there a chance that Tampa Bay could finish first in the A.L. East, with Boston taking the wildcard, and the Yankees being left out in the cold? Sure, you bet there’s a chance – do the math.

The key in this could be the Orioles – they play Boston 7 more times, Tampa Bay 3 more times, and the Yankees no more.  If the O’s roll over and let the Red Sox take most of those games, while the Rays are beating the Yankees, head-to-head, in those 7 games that they have with New York, then that could sink the Yankees.

Then again, if the Yankees win 6 of the next 8, that should give them the room they need to lock up a post-season spot.  So, these upcoming road games for them, against the Mariners and Blue Jays, are very important. 

It’s too bad that A-Rod, Swisher, Martin, and others, are now hurting.  And, Granderson and Gardner have cooled off a bit.  And, Teixeira has been a bust of sorts over the last three months.  Not to mention that Burnett and Hughes cannot be trusted. 

This whole thing has gotten really sticky for the Yankees over the last six days.  Those one-run losses on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday may come back to haunt them.

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Not really.

For a second, I thought:  I doubt there’s ever been a 39-year old player, or one older, to appear in a game at second base, and another one at catcher, in the same season.

Then I checked and saw Craig Biggio did it. Brad Ausmus too.

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At first, he seemed O.K. 

Via the Daily News yesterday -

Francisco Cervelli has experienced his share of concussions and numerous other occupational injuries. But the Yankees’ backup catcher completed Thursday’s 5-4, 10-inning loss to the Orioles despite absorbing a hard, shoulder-to-head blow from Nick Markakis on an out at the plate in the seventh.

“A little dizzy, but it’s OK. I’ve been hit before,” said Cervelli, who said he didn’t undergo any concussion testing after the game. “I’m ready to play tomorrow, and that’s it. Catchers gotta be tough.”

Cervelli has suffered at least three known concussions in his career, and he’s occasionally donned an oversized “Great Gazoo” batting helmet because of them. That look also was briefly adopted and ditched by Mets star David Wright when he returned after being hit in the head by a pitch in 2009.

“For Cervy to hang in there, he got hit pretty hard, and we’ll see how he is (Friday),” Joe Girardi said.

But, now, via Bryan Hoch today -

Rob Thomson just posted a new lineup minus Francisco Cervelli. Joe Girardi said Cervelli’s concussion symptoms are back and he’s being sent for an impact test.

Updates to follow, Russell Martin is catching.

Yikes.  Just the other day, I was reading about Drew Cumberland.  This is very serious stuff.  I hope that Cervelli is going to be O.K.

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Via George King -

Having played in six of the Yankees’ previous seven games, Alex Rodriguez is healthy enough for manager Joe Girardi to put him in the lineup.

However, watching the cleanup hitter at the plate and on the basepaths raises the question of whether Rodriguez is healthy enough to be a force in the middle of a batting order that houses legitimate MVP candidates Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano.

Rodriguez injured his right knee on June 19 against the Cubs and had arthroscopic surgery on July 11. He returned from the disabled list on Aug. 21, played one game at Minnesota, and missed the next two with a left thumb injury. Rodriguez returned to play three games, then sat out the next six. An MRI exam of his thumb didn’t show structural damage.

However, a lot of Rodriguez’s recent swings have lacked wallop. After going 0-for-3 last night in the Yankees’ 2-1 loss to the Angels at Angel Stadium, he’s was 8-for-36 (.222) with two homers and four RBIs in 10 games since coming back from the knee surgery.

“I see a guy who looks like he’s knocking off the rust,” general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday from his Yankee Stadium office. “He looks like he’s running to protect himself. At the plate he looks like he is getting the rust off.”

Well, he’s got three weeks to get his act together – because that’s when the curtain goes up on the post-season.

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