“WYSIWYG” Burnett In Game 4
Posted by Steve L. on October 3rd, 2011 · Comments (5)
Unless something happens where Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS is not played, A.J. Burnett is starting Game 4 for the Yankees. So, what will happen?
- Burnett could throw a gem and the Yankees will win. Or,
- Burnett could throw a gem and still lose the game. Or,
- Burnett could be so-so and the Yankees find a way to win. Or,
- Burnett could be so-so and the Yankees lose the game. Or,
- Burnett could be terrible and the Yankees lose the game. Or,
- Burnett could be terrible and the Yankees still manage to pull out a win – somehow.
But, don’t think this is a 50-50 thing…where the Yankees can win or lose, flip a coin.
The odds of Burnett throwing a gem are remote. More than likely, he’ll be so-so at best and terrible at the worst. The question is, if he “so-so” or “terrible,” can the Yankees still find a way to win that game? What do you think?
My gut feeling? No matter how many runs the Yankees score Burnett will still find a way to lose the game. I predict he will get shelled. I also predict that after the game he will contend he pitched well but “just missed a couple spots.”
@ Jim TreshFan:
And Girardi’s inevitable “I thought he threw the ball well”…
But yeah, most likely than not, he won’t be good, there’s no evidence to claim otherwise.
Same question must be asked of Porcello as he could get hit hard too. Say the Yanks can manage to get this to a game 5 I like their chances at home with Nova against Fister.
Even if the Tigers have 2/3 chance to win game 3, and a 2/3 chance to win game 4, what are the odds they win both?
Answer: 4/9, or 44%. Yanks would be 55% to get it back to the Stadium for game 5, and 11% to win it in Detroit.
I would have Phil ready to go from the first pitch. Any sign of more than 3 runs scoring in total, then I would make the switch. AJ will be on a very very short leash.