• This One Hurts

    Posted by on October 4th, 2011 · Comments (17)

    Ouch!

    On so many different levels.

    But, most  of all, it was the stat that they mentioned on TBS during the game…

    That more than 80% of the time, the team that wins Game 3 of a five-game LDS, after being tied one-one in the series, goes on to win the whole thing and then advance to the next round.

    And, of course, there’s the A.J. Burnett factor in Game 4.

    I really like the Yankees chances to get to the ALCS if there’s a Game 5 in this ALDS.  But, after this one, and A.J. being A.J., I don’t feel good, at all, about the Yankees chances to make it to that Game 5.

    Comments on This One Hurts

    1. Evan3457
      October 4th, 2011 | 12:10 am

      Yep; the odds are clearly against them now.

      Still, I watch, I wait, and I see what happens.

    2. Jim TreshFan
      October 4th, 2011 | 12:19 am

      If I were you I’d see what I can get for those Game 5 tickets you’re holding.

      My prediction remains the same:
      AJ will get shelled and after the game contend that he pitched well but “just missed a couple spots.”

    3. JeremyM
      October 4th, 2011 | 12:19 am

      Don’t worry, Jaret Wright is on the hill….

      At least most of the Yankees are fighting. Teix is ridiculous though.

    4. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 12:50 am

      Our 4-5-6 batters are utterly pathetic right now. We can’t win with the complete lack of production from those spots in the order. And it’s not just this series. Historically, they do not produce in the post-season. We need to bring in guys that can perform in the post-season. I would love to get a guy like Michael Young to play third and move A-Rod to the DH spot. Don’t pick up Swisher’s option and bring in someone who has a good post-season track record. We won in 2009 because we had those types of guys in Petitte, Matsui and Damon. The Yankees make the playoffs every year. We need to construct a team that can be successful in the playoffs, not just one that makes it there.

    5. October 4th, 2011 | 1:00 am

      I’d let CC walk now, too, if he opts out. He’s fat and, while I give him credit for bending and not breaking tonight, he’s not exactly Curt Schilling or Orel Hershiser in the post-season either. That’s too much money and too many years for a guy like that…and that fat.

    6. Evan3457
      October 4th, 2011 | 2:19 am

      Matsui was there from 2003-2009. They won once; didn’t win 5 times. Sometimes he hit great in the post-season, sometimes he did little. Damon was there from 2006-2009; again, they won once. Sometimes he hit, sometimes he didn’t. Pettitte won lots of games in the post-season. He also lost quite a few, some of them absolute bombs. They need more guys contributing. Right now, it’s Jeter, Posada, Granderson and Gardner. That’s about it. The bullpen’s been decent for the most part. One awful pitch by Soriano.

    7. Evan3457
      October 4th, 2011 | 2:20 am

      Steve L. wrote:

      I’d let CC walk now, too, if he opts out. He’s fat and, while I give him credit for bending and not breaking tonight, he’s not exactly Curt Schilling or Orel Hershiser in the post-season either. That’s too much money and too many years for a guy like that…and that fat.

      Well, then, the Yanks will be short two aces instead of one. And you know he’ll kill the Yanks when he faces them…for the Angels.

    8. Raf
      October 4th, 2011 | 7:22 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Matsui was there from 2003-2009. They won once; didn’t win 5 times. Sometimes he hit great in the post-season, sometimes he did little. Damon was there from 2006-2009; again, they won once. Sometimes he hit, sometimes he didn’t. Pettitte won lots of games in the post-season. He also lost quite a few, some of them absolute bombs. They need more guys contributing. Right now, it’s Jeter, Posada, Granderson and Gardner. That’s about it. The bullpen’s been decent for the most part. One awful pitch by Soriano.

      Exactly. Same with Jeter, Posada, Granderson; they’ve had good postseasons, they’ve had bad ones. Ditto for the “Dynasty Yankees.” The meme that they elevated their games in the postseason and they “knew how to win” isn’t based in reality.

    9. Greg H.
      October 4th, 2011 | 12:59 pm

      I don’t get the “reconstructionist” thinking here. Swisher? He hit the first pitch from Valturde out in the 9th in game 2, and has been solid defensively and had a great second half. Because he popped out in a big spot, you release him? You don’t change everything based on a four or five postseason games. It’s frustrating as hell, but still – Jeter’s the one who whiffed with two on in the 9th last night. You construct a team that gets you to the postseason, with the understanding that anything can happen once you get there.

    10. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 1:22 pm

      Raf wrote:

      Ditto for the “Dynasty Yankees.” The meme that they elevated their games in the postseason and they “knew how to win” isn’t based in reality.

      So you are disputing the fact that a team that won 4 out of 5 championships “knew how to win”? What kind of reality are you living in?

    11. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 2:19 pm

      Greg H. wrote:

      I don’t get the “reconstructionist” thinking here. Swisher? He hit the first pitch from Valturde out in the 9th in game 2, and has been solid defensively and had a great second half. Because he popped out in a big spot, you release him? You don’t change everything based on a four or five postseason games.

      I understand what you’re saying but its really not just a handful of games. Guys like A-Rod, Tex and Swisher are historically awful in the post-season. I can understand a guy going through a bad stretch at the wrong time. But Swisher has 36 games/116AB in the PS and he has a .164 BA. Tex has 29 games/114AB and a .202 BA. Everyone knows about A-Rod’s struggles. Seriously, when A-Rod was with the Mariners and we played them in the PS did he scare you? We need to get guys who can perform in October as well as May.

    12. Greg H.
      October 4th, 2011 | 3:31 pm

      @ LMJ229:
      Sorry, I’m not sold on this line of thinking. CC was historically awful in the post season until 2009, when he was quite good, pitching on three days rest. A-Rod was epically awful in the postseason until 2009, when he put the team on his back for a world series ride. Jeter was historically sensational in the postseason until last night when he whiffed to end the game on a fastball down the middle of the plate. Gardner has been non-entity until this series, when he’s suddenly a clutch performer. Mo is the best post season closer ever, except when he gakked up the ALCS to Boston, and when he handed the World Series to the D-Bags. On and on.

      Let’s not make the same mistakes that Boston is about to make. Performing in the post season requires your team to make it to the post season.

    13. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 5:15 pm

      @ Greg H.:
      Regarding Jeter and Mo, you are pointing out the exceptions to their otherwise superb play. Regarding A-Rod and CC you are pointing out the exceptions to their otherwise awful play. Big difference.

      I’m not suggesting we blow up the team. We need CC back. But I’d look to get a better clutch performer at 3B, move A-Rod to DH, and replace Swisher (maybe with Montero if he can play the OF we need to find a spot for his bat). Outfielders are easily replaceable. And I happen to like Swisher alot personally but I don’t think he will ever help us in the post-season and we can certainly make the post-season without him.

    14. Raf
      October 4th, 2011 | 6:43 pm

      LMJ229 wrote:

      Raf wrote:
      Ditto for the “Dynasty Yankees.” The meme that they elevated their games in the postseason and they “knew how to win” isn’t based in reality.
      So you are disputing the fact that a team that won 4 out of 5 championships “knew how to win”? What kind of reality are you living in?

      Why yes, yes I am. If they knew how to win, they’d never lose a game during the regular season. Hell, they’d never lose a game during the postseason. If they elevated their games, they’d post numbers during the postseasons that were clearly above their regular season numbers. You look back, players had good seasons, players had bad seasons. Just like during the regular seasons, players have good games and series, and bad games and series.

      They knew how to win except when they didn’t. How did Johhny Damon do during the 2009 ALDS?

      Remember the 2004 collapse? The following players played on championship teams; Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Sheffield, Bernie, Olerud, Duque & Kevin Brown. Did they forget how to win?

      Jose Contreras pitched big games in Cuba. Didn’t do him much good in NY. Igawa & Irabu pitched big games in Japan. Didn’t do them much good in NY.

      Hideki Matsui was a 3 time champion in Japan. He played for the Yankees from 2003-09, the Yankees only won once.

      Did these players forget how to win?

      Playoffs are random, that’s the way it works. Even Captain Clutch, Derek Jeter, muffed a ball in game 2, and he struck out last night with the tying run on base.

      So yeah, players know how to win, unless they lose. They have good series, they have bad series. Sometimes they’re good, sometimes they’re bad, sometimes they’re lucky.

    15. Raf
      October 4th, 2011 | 6:46 pm

      Has there been much talk about CC opting out? Doesn’t seem to be.

    16. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 9:33 pm

      @ Raf:
      I’d be VERY surprised if he doesn’t opt out.

    17. LMJ229
      October 4th, 2011 | 9:41 pm

      Raf wrote:

      Why yes, yes I am. If they knew how to win, they’d never lose a game during the regular season. Hell, they’d never lose a game during the postseason.

      Raf, you are speaking in absolute terms here. You know that doesn’t apply to baseball.Raf wrote:

      You look back, players had good seasons, players had bad seasons. Just like during the regular seasons, players have good games and series, and bad games and series.

      There is certainly enough of a body of evidence to prove that the post-seasons for A-Rod, Tex and Swisher have been mostly bad.

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