• The Great Nick Swisher

    Posted by on October 10th, 2011 · Comments (16)

    Next time someone tells you that the Yankees cannot live without Nick Swisher next season, tell them to check these numbers:

    Rk Player OPS+ Year Age Tm G PA R HR RBI SO
    1 Jose Bautista 181 2011 30 TOR 149 655 105 43 103 111
    2 Lance Berkman 166 2011 35 STL 145 587 90 31 94 93
    3 Carlos Beltran 152 2011 34 TOT 142 598 78 22 84 88
    4 Justin Upton 141 2011 23 ARI 159 674 105 31 88 126
    5 Mike Stanton 141 2011 21 FLA 150 601 79 34 87 166
    6 Hunter Pence 138 2011 28 TOT 154 668 84 22 97 124
    7 Corey Hart 133 2011 29 MIL 130 551 80 26 63 114
    8 Matthew Joyce 132 2011 26 TBR 141 522 69 19 75 106
    9 Carlos Quentin 124 2011 28 CHW 118 483 53 24 77 84
    10 Andre Ethier 120 2011 29 LAD 135 551 67 11 62 103
    11 Jay Bruce 119 2011 24 CIN 157 664 84 32 97 158
    12 Jeff Francoeur 119 2011 27 KCR 153 656 77 20 87 123
    13 Nick Swisher 117 2011 30 NYY 150 635 81 23 85 125
    14 Torii Hunter 115 2011 35 LAA 156 649 80 23 82 125
    15 Seth Smith 112 2011 28 COL 147 533 67 15 59 93
    16 Nelson Cruz 112 2011 30 TEX 124 513 64 29 87 116
    17 Nick Markakis 109 2011 27 BAL 160 716 72 15 73 75
    18 Kosuke Fukudome 97 2011 34 TOT 146 603 59 8 35 110
    19 Jayson Werth 97 2011 32 WSN 150 649 69 20 58 160
    20 Jason Heyward 95 2011 21 ATL 128 454 50 14 42 93
    21 David DeJesus 93 2011 31 OAK 131 506 60 10 46 86
    22 Ichiro Suzuki 84 2011 37 SEA 161 721 80 5 47 69
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 10/10/2011.

    .
    And…

    Rk Player OPS+ From To Age G PA HR RBI SO
    1 Jose Bautista 156 2009 2011 28-30 423 1742 110 267 312
    2 Shin-Soo Choo 134 2009 2011 26-28 385 1689 50 212 347
    3 Mike Stanton 131 2010 2011 20-21 250 997 56 146 289
    4 Andre Ethier 129 2009 2011 27-29 434 1821 65 250 321
    5 Justin Upton 128 2009 2011 21-23 430 1833 74 243 415
    6 Nelson Cruz 125 2009 2011 28-30 360 1473 84 241 315
    7 Ben Zobrist 125 2009 2011 28-30 459 1928 57 257 339
    8 Jayson Werth 124 2009 2011 30-32 465 1977 83 242 463
    9 Corey Hart 123 2009 2011 27-29 390 1637 69 213 346
    10 Hunter Pence 123 2009 2011 26-28 469 1973 72 260 338
    11 Nick Swisher 123 2009 2011 28-30 450 1877 81 256 390
    12 Jay Bruce 117 2009 2011 22-24 406 1624 79 225 369
    13 Michael Cuddyer 116 2009 2011 30-32 449 1909 66 245 306
    14 Jason Heyward 116 2010 2011 20-21 270 1077 32 114 221
    15 Carlos Quentin 114 2009 2011 26-28 348 1409 71 220 219
    16 Bobby Abreu 113 2009 2011 35-37 448 1919 43 241 358
    17 Nick Markakis 112 2009 2011 25-27 481 2136 45 234 266
    18 J.D. Drew 110 2009 2011 33-35 357 1371 50 158 272
    19 Ichiro Suzuki 109 2009 2011 35-37 469 2131 22 136 226
    20 Brad Hawpe 108 2009 2011 30-32 310 1150 36 149 298
    21 Magglio Ordonez 106 2009 2011 35-37 307 1240 26 141 144
    22 Kosuke Fukudome 104 2009 2011 32-34 422 1635 32 133 289
    23 Will Venable 104 2009 2011 26-28 347 1180 34 133 309
    24 Jeff Francoeur 100 2009 2011 25-27 449 1791 48 228 296
    25 Ryan Ludwick 100 2009 2011 30-32 414 1643 52 241 351
    26 Nate Schierholtz 93 2009 2011 25-27 368 922 17 87 157
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 10/10/2011.

    .
    Last season, Swisher was between Jeff Francoeur and Torii Hunter in terms of production. And, over the last three years, he was between Michael Cuddyer and Ben Zobrist.

    Nick Swisher is a nice player. He’s not a great player. And, he can be replaced, if the Yankees opt to make that call.

    Filed under Math Class · ·

    Comments on The Great Nick Swisher

    1. 77yankees
      October 10th, 2011 | 1:59 pm

      Agreed.

      While he’s cut down on those “what was he thinking” mistakes he made on the bases earlier in his Yankee tenure, he doesn’t stick out as a must have on the roster.
    2. Jim TreshFan
      October 10th, 2011 | 4:00 pm

      Hey, here’s an idea: Why not ship Nick to the Phillies? They look like they might be in need of a 1B next year and Swisher (.822 OPS) was nearly as productive as Howard (.835 OPS) so they wouldn’t be losing much in the way of a bat, especially in the Post Season. Besides they were considering dropping Howard to the 5th slot anyway. So I say go for it :)

    3. 77yankees
      October 10th, 2011 | 6:09 pm

      @ Jim TreshFan

      They may play John Mayberry Jr. at 1st & play Dominic Brown in the OF every day depending on how long they expect Howard to be out. If he’s out for all of 2012, they may go out and get someone.

      The player I think the Yanks should keep an eye out for is the Rockies’ Seth Smith. He’s 29, wouldn’t command a high level prospect, he’s inexpensive and a lefty bat with some pop. He hit .299 v. RHP so if they wanted to work Eduardo Nunez into the lineup to play RF v. lefties it’d be worth a shot.
    4. Corey Italiano
      October 10th, 2011 | 6:36 pm

      @ 77yankees:
      I’d rather try to convert Montero into a RF than bother with a Nunez/Smith platoon. Guy has a good arm (his only strength at C) and can’t possibly be any worse than Bobby Abreu.
    5. Joseph Maloney
      October 10th, 2011 | 6:46 pm

      Swisher is not a big time player that’s for sure. I would have no problem with the Yanks not exercising the 10.5 million option for 2012. That said, Swisher is a small piece to this puzzle. AROD and Tex are the major problems. Cano is now the key to the Yankee offense. Girard needs to drop AROD to 5th and Tex to 6th, Cashman needs to find a player who can bat in the clean-up spot.

      Does anyone think the Yanks might be able to put Montero in right field.
    6. Corey Italiano
      October 10th, 2011 | 7:02 pm

      Joseph Maloney wrote:

      Does anyone think the Yanks might be able to put Montero in right field.

      How much worse could he be than Vladdy or Abreu? He’s supposedly of that class with the bat, no?

      On the other hand, e does kinda run funny though doesn’t he?
    7. 77yankees
      October 10th, 2011 | 8:25 pm

      @ Corey Italiano:

      I’d given Montero some thought as a RF, but would he be serviceable out there as far as speed/range?

      Vlad was okay during his Montreal days – his speed and arm out there made up for his occasional misjudgment on fly balls.

      Abreu? Outfield walls were to him what plays at the plate were when Posada was catching – you knew what the result would be.
    8. Corey Italiano
      October 10th, 2011 | 8:56 pm

      77yankees wrote:

      I’d given Montero some thought as a RF, but would he be serviceable out there as far as speed/range?

      Given the current outfield alignment, you could certainly cheat with Grandy and Gardner shading over, thus diminishing the risk if he doesn’t have that much range.

      I’m just throwing crap at the wall and seeing if it sticks, really. I just want to see his bat in the lineup somewhere because he has the potential to be our power hitter down the line during A-Rod and Tex’s declining years.
    9. Evan3457
      October 10th, 2011 | 9:48 pm

      Here’s another list you might want to take a look at; Fangraphs WAR for regular RF from 2009-2011

      Name WAR (2009-2011)

      Ben Zobrist 19.20
      Jose Bautista 17.20
      Jayson Werth 12.80
      Shin-Soo Choo 12.50
      Hunter Pence 12.00
      Nick Swisher 11.00
      Jay Bruce 10.30
      Ichiro Suzuki 10.10
      Torii Hunter 9.90
      Lance Berkman 9.90
      Corey Hart 8.70
      David DeJesus 8.50
      Andre Ethier 7.90
      Jason Heyward 7.20
      Nick Markakis 7.20
      Michael Cuddyer 6.80
      Bobby Abreu 5.80
      Cody Ross 5.10
      Ryan Ludwick 4.70
      Kosuke Fukudome 4.00
      Jeff Francoeur 3.80
      Jason Kubel 3.60
      Jermaine Dye -0.50

      Notice that Swisher is 6th on this list. Also note that NONE of the 5 guys ahead of him are available. For 2011 alone, he’d be 9th on a list of 23 regular RF, and this after not hitting a lick until late May, and with a bad elbow that slowed him back down in September.

      Is Swisher replaceable? Sure he is. But, if the Yankees replace him, they better spend a lot less than $10.5 million for his replacement, because they won’t be getting equal value. The marginal value of his “ordinary” season last year is estimated at $17 million on the open market, and the marginal value for his 3 seasons with the Yanks: $14.2 million, $16.4 million and $17.0 million.

      Subtract some value for his post-season catastrophes? Sure. How much? They won it all despite him in 2009; the failure of hitting and pitching both doomed them vs. the Rangers in 2010, and he, Tex, A-Rod, and CC deserve equal measures of blame, I figure, for the loss to Detroit last week.

      What do I think? Replace him, sure. Someone’s gotta be the scapegoat; they can’t get rid of CC, A-Rod or Tex, so Swisher makes a good sacrificial lamb. When they replace him, and they wind up getting less for more…well, the team is strong enough overall that they can likely take a small hit in right and still make the post-season. Or…if they pay much more to get a little more, they can probably take the payroll hit elsewhere and still stay under budget, thanks to losing the Posada and Marte contracts.

      Let’s hope they don’t miss the playoffs by a game or two, and if they get there, his replacement hits better in the post-season.
    10. LMJ229
      October 10th, 2011 | 11:12 pm

      @ Evan3457:
      I found your stats to be worthy of consideration until you valued him at $17M.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Or…if they pay much more to get a little more, they can probably take the payroll hit elsewhere and still stay under budget, thanks to losing the Posada and Marte contracts.

      You sure Cashman isn’t going to pick up that option? ;)

    11. LMJ229
      October 10th, 2011 | 11:18 pm

      I like Swisher and certainly wouldn’t fault the Yankees for bringing him back, he’s been a good player for us. But I don’t think he will ever hit in the post-season, he just gets too hyped up. So I wouldn’t be disappointed if they replaced him.
    12. Brent
      October 11th, 2011 | 10:13 am

      How much do you think Swisher is worth?
    13. Evan3457
      October 11th, 2011 | 2:17 pm

      LMJ229 wrote:

      @ Evan3457:
      I found your stats to be worthy of consideration until you valued him at $17M.

      I didn’t value him at $17M. Fangraphs puts the value of 1 WAR for 2011 at roughly $4.5M, and Swisher had 3.8 WAR, so multiply the two and you get 17M.
    14. Raf
      October 11th, 2011 | 8:03 pm

      Swisher’s a productive player, and reasonably priced at that. No reason why the Yanks shouldn’t pick up his option.

      Certainly, he shouldn’t go for something he’s done over 100+ at bats. That’d be crazy.
    15. MJ Recanati
      October 13th, 2011 | 11:16 am

      Corey Italiano wrote:

      I’d rather try to convert Montero into a RF than bother with a Nunez/Smith platoon. Guy has a good arm (his only strength at C) and can’t possibly be any worse than Bobby Abreu.

      Bobby Abreu was an athlete with an ability to read a ball off a bat. Montero is most certainly not athletic enough to cover the outfield and has no experience playing the OF. It would take another year of the minors to teach him how to be a major leauge OF and, frankly, we’ve been wasting enough time with him as it is.

      Let him DH and catch and be done with it.
    16. MJ Recanati
      October 13th, 2011 | 11:21 am

      LMJ229 wrote:

      I found your stats to be worthy of consideration until you valued him at $17M.

      Evan didn’t value him at $17M; this wasn’t a subjective statement on his part.

      Marginal wins cost between $4.5-$5M on the open market, thus, a 1 WAR player would be worth around that as a free agent. Swisher produced a 3.8 fWAR in 2011 which calculates to an open-market value of $17.1M. In other words, to get what Swisher gave them, the Yankees would have to pay someone $17M in free agency.

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