• So, How’d I Do?

    Posted by on June 24th, 2012 · Comments (13)

    Thirty-three days ago, I predicted that the New York Yankees would have a record of 36-35 after their first 71 games of the 2012 season.

    And, now, we know that the Yankees went 43-28 over their first 71 games of this season.

    So, I was off by seven games.

    Why? It’s a matter of bits and pieces.

    I thought the Yankees would lose at least one game of their three game set in Oakland on May 25th-27th. But, they ended up sweeping the A’s. And, I thought the Yankees would lose two of three from the Tigers in Detroit at the start of June. However, New York took two games there. And, I thought that the Yankees would lose at least one game to the Mets when Terry Collins’ team came to the Bronx. But, the Yankees swept that series. And, I thought the Yankees would lose at least one game each when they visited Atlanta and Washington. But, they swept both those series. That’s five games right there in my difference.

    Bottom line, the Yankees pitching, overall, over their last 28 games has been a lot better than I expected. And, that’s why my prediction failed.

    Now, how will the Yankees pitching hold up from this point on? I dunno. You tell me…

    Comments on So, How’d I Do?

    1. Evan3457
      June 25th, 2012 | 12:35 am

      I dunno either, Steve. I suspect it’ll be fairly good, but not dominant, just as it has been the 1st 71 games.

      Could part of the reason be that, just like last season, Russell Martin is doing a superior job handling the staff and receiving pitches and drawing extra strike calls?

      Nah, couldn’t be that.

    2. Evan3457
      June 25th, 2012 | 12:49 am

      P.S. Yanks now 15-8 against teams under .500

      …and 28-20 against teams over .500.

    3. Garcia
      June 25th, 2012 | 5:39 am

      Steve L. wrote:

      Bottom line, the Yankees pitching, overall, over their last 28 games has been a lot better than I expected. And, that’s why my prediction failed.

      Now, how will the Yankees pitching hold up from this point on? I dunno. You tell me…

      I don’t know. But I do know this, even if the Yanks pitching stats are far better than league average, you’ll still be there to remind us that this is a team that will only go as far as the ALDS — then you’ll point out all the years (during the Cashman era) where they were bounced in first round.

    4. MJ Recanati
      June 25th, 2012 | 10:25 am

      Steve L. wrote:

      So, how’d I do?

      Poorly. You predicted doom and gloom but instead were treated to some exceptional baseball and a 10 game winning streak along the way.

      It’s OK though, I’m sure you’ll make several more dire predictions and move the goalposts every step of the way.

      It’s nothing if not entertaining, at least.

    5. #15
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:09 pm

      Yeah, Yeah… The prediction, thankfully, went belly up. As I’ve said many times, “It’s Yankee fans’ lot in life to fret and then win. It’s Botox fans’ lot in life to boast and then lose.”

      The key element here is the Yankee pitching staff has been better, much better, than we could have hoped for, especially when you cross off names like Rivera, Pineda, and for a long stretch Robertson. Somehow we are within spitting distance of the best record in baseball, and, I would argue, we had the toughest interleague schedule of any team.

      A-Rod and R-Mar have produced well below expectations, and Tex is probably on the bubble so far. Grandy, Jete, Cano, and Swish are doing what we need them to do, but Robbie can give us even more than he has so far.

      If we ever get our hitting with RISP clicking while the pitching is humming along we’ll be really tough. Speaking of tough…. The AL East is stacking up to be even more of a bear than I could have imagined. No one ever has an easy series against any of these teams. Baltimore is probably the surprise of the season, the Rays remain competitive in a complicated way, and the Botox are even showing a pulse (yes, I’m glad we won’t have to face Youkelele in a clutch spot anymore). All the AL East head to head play late in the year is going to 1) keep it close, and 2) make it hard to make-up ground if you are behind.

      Didn’t like to see that bulky brace on Gardner’s arm last night. Doesn’t look like someone that’s close to being game ready. While we’ve gotten more out of Raul and A-Jones than we could have hoped for, if a stud outfielder comes available, even if it’s just for this year, we ought to grab him.

    6. June 25th, 2012 | 3:40 pm

      @ #15: Good points – and I agree with most of it, sans Swisher. His OBA should be higher.

    7. Greg H.
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:45 pm

      I see the team holding up pretty well, assuming everyone else stays healthy and we eventually get Gardner back. CC usually goes on a stretch during the dog days, and I expect the BP to continue what it’s doing. What can worry me is that it seems to be a streaky team this year with several streaky players. If they start to click, then the division will be ours. And every team will be at war to win the division, because of the one game elimination on the WC format. The way Ibanez and even Chavez came through yesterday when needed is very encouraging. Also encouraging is what T. Collins said about the team – “they can beat you in a minute.” That keeps teams on edge and I see it as an advantage for us.

    8. MJ Recanati
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:46 pm

      Steve L. wrote:

      I agree with most of it, sans Swisher. His OBA should be higher.

      As long as he’s producing — and he’s got an OPS at the same spot as it was last year — his OBP isn’t hurting the team. Sure, if it were higher it would be fantastic. But it’s hard to complain about an .832 OPS and a 120 OPS+.

    9. clintfsu813
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:48 pm

      @ #15:
      Gardner’s return date is likely mid July. I don’t think Yanks make an OF move.

      We still may have to face Youk in a few clutch situations when the CHISOX come up on the schedule.

      I think the AL East race will be narrowed to Rays/Yanks by the time September comes around.

    10. clintfsu813
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:50 pm

      @ Greg H.:
      Yanks have shown a propensity for some nice late game comebacks. They may not always win them, but they’ll make it exciting. Friday’s Mets game for example.

    11. MJ Recanati
      June 25th, 2012 | 3:59 pm

      clintfsu813 wrote:

      We still may have to face Youk in a few clutch situations when the CHISOX come up on the schedule.

      I’m going to see him this Thursday when the White Sox come to town. I will boo him lustily, even though he’s traded his red sox in for white ones. This is one time where the laundry has nothing to do with it; Youkilis is a complete d-bag. It’s only too bad the good-for-one-thing Joba isn’t around to drill him.

    12. #15
      June 25th, 2012 | 4:25 pm

      @ clintfsu813:
      Boy, I hope you are right. I don’t know if you saw it flash by in the dugout yesterday, but he has a serious brace on his wing. He’s not swinging a bat or catching a ball with that thing on his arm. It’s going to be a while before he’s game ready.

    13. clintfsu813
      June 25th, 2012 | 5:38 pm

      As of June 15 it was going to be 3 to 4 weeks for Gardner to return.

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