• Cashman: Hughes, Joba & Pineda Not In His Dreams Now

    Posted by on August 19th, 2012 · Comments (17)

    Via Joel Sherman-

    It may feel like yesterday that Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain got here, but it is not too many more tomorrows until they could leave.

    Hughes and Chamberlain both are due to be free agents after next season, which means the clock is ticking for the Yankees to decide what to do with them. And that, in many ways, boils down to a question of who they are.

    Interestingly, Brian Cashman said, “I believe I know who they are.”

    And when pressed on that, the Yankees general manager added: “They have been around long enough. They are not guys I am dreaming on anymore.”

    Translation: In the eyes of the Yankees front office, Hughes and Chamberlain no longer have a higher ceiling to reach; they are no longer projectable to something considerably better than what they are now. They are — in the Yankees’ thoughts — who we think they are: Talented, but maddeningly inconsistent performers. And what does an organization do long term about those types of entities as they enter their prime — and also their prime earning years?

    “They are here for a reason, — they are important pieces for us,” Cashman said. “I have made trades and done things and I haven’t moved them. That should say something.”

    But when asked if that meant wanting either or both long term, Cashman said, “That is stuff I can’t answer at this stage. It is a two-way street. It is a negotiation for two sides. So it is all for another day.”

    [Hughes] did not grow into the No. 1 or 2 starter of the Yankees’ dreams. He’s more like a No. 3 1/2. Hughes has yet to put two healthy, successful seasons back-to-back as a starter. His changeup has never fully formed, and he has become homer prone. Hughes’ 4.41 ERA as a Yankee is the third worst in franchise history for anyone who has thrown at least 575 innings, trailing just Hank Johnson (4.84) and A.J. Burnett (4.74).

    The Yankees could, in theory, re-sign free agents Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda for a year to join CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and David Phelps, with the hope Michael Pineda returns healthy enough from shoulder surgery to have an impact. Cashman said Pineda “would not be a factor” in building a 2013 rotation because “he is coming off of a major injury. The best thing to do is just forget about him until he declares himself ready to help. Let him surprise us as a luxury.”

    Nova seems very hittable this year. Also, Pettitte and Kuroda are not spring chickens – although the latter has been very impressive this season.

    I like David Phelps. And, I would have no problem counting on his to be your fifth starter in 2013. But, if Hughes and Pineda are somewhat, potentially, out of the picture for next season, the Yankees are looking at a year-older Sabathia in 2013 and a lot of questions in their rotation. And, let’s not forget that Sabathia has broken down twice this season.

    And, Joba?  There’s a lot of rust there now.  And, before  that, he was just a league average pitcher.  Think: Brian Bruney.

    It’s probably time to let him go.

    Comments on Cashman: Hughes, Joba & Pineda Not In His Dreams Now

    1. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 19th, 2012 | 4:05 pm

      Well, I said this years ago.. He had a chance to Trade NO THRILL PHIL for Johan Santana which left a bitter taste in my mouth, and then he had the chance to trade Phil again to the Blue Jays for Halladay and didnt. If I were Phil and based on the type of pitcher he is (FB), he can make allot of $$ pitching in a NICE QUITE park like ATT. High k/9, walks very few batters and his advance xFIP, tERA SIERA all adjusted for a park like ATT gives Hughes an ERA around the 3.15.. Giants I am sure would be very interested in him after Zito is gone!. And Honeslty, I know others here might disagree, I can’t wait for Phil to be gone..

    2. Corey
      August 19th, 2012 | 4:25 pm

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      I know others here might disagree, I can’t wait for Phil to be gone..

      I’m with ya.

    3. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 19th, 2012 | 5:20 pm

      I’m with ya.

      Corey, What I realize now, wasnt Hughes drafted number 1 and the following year Joba was drafted number 1?.. If so, that means two number one picks gone in 6 years.. I wonder how many other teams could afford something like this happening?..And how much $$ it would cost them to replace a mistake- (for a lack of a better word) like this?

      From my understanding, under the new CBA agreement, the Yankees get no compensation picks for Hughes and Joba if they walk and sign with someone else unless the Yankees offer a contract first. So, if Hughes and Joba are not offered a contract, then the only option would be is to TRADE them or get nothing if they sign with another team. The plot tickens as each month passes I guess..

    4. Evan3457
      August 19th, 2012 | 11:25 pm

      Hughes probably has more career WAR than the average 1st round pick already.

      I can’t wait for the Yanks to trade Hughes to the Padres or the Giants, and watch him become an All-Star level pitcher for that team. Trading him at low value, Cashman will be killed for making the trade. It’s eminently predictable.

      Doesn’t anyone here realize that a 4.25 ERA in the AL East has real value. He’s not a Cy Young candidate, but shouldn’t be kicked to the curb. His marginal value this season is $5.6 million so far.

    5. Scout
      August 20th, 2012 | 10:49 am

      At this point, with a solid season in 2012, Hughes has some trade value. It would not be selling low. The question is whether you can put a better team on the field next year with Hughes or someone else. For that I think we need to wait until after the season to size up the options.

      There are two ways to look at the Yankees’ record with first round draft choices. On one side, there have been too many busts over the years (with some still likely, e.g., Cito Culver, my personal pick as the worst in the past seven years). On the other side, Cashman now seems to appreciate that sunk costs don’t count, that you cannot redeem a bad draft pick by continuing to invest in him past a point of diminishing retunrs. Sentimentality can’t be a part of it, either. If Cashman is prepared to be ruthless and recognize that a guy never panned out, then he’s taking the correct approach.

    6. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 11:42 am

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      He had a chance to Trade NO THRILL PHIL for Johan Santana

      I can’t believe we have to re-hash this debate again. The calculus wasn’t simply trading Hughes for Santana, it was emptying the entirety of our upper minors to acquire a guy with injury risk and then having to offer the guy a record-setting amount of money. The Yankees correctly estimated that they could not be outbid for the services of a younger pitcher the following offseason and ended up keeping the farm system in tact while signing CC Sabathia. How can anyone look at the Santana non-trade and argue that the Yankees made a bad choice?

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      then he had the chance to trade Phil again to the Blue Jays for Halladay and didnt.

      Unverifiable. It’s highly likely that the Blue Jays never intended to trade Roy Halladay to an American League team and even more likely that they never intended to trade him to a team within the division that had the means of extending his contract and keeping him in the AL East.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      What I realize now, wasnt Hughes drafted number 1 and the following year Joba was drafted number 1?..

      Hughes was drafted in the first round of the 2004 draft. Chamberlain was drafted as a supplemental first rounder in the 2006 draft.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      If so, that means two number one picks gone in 6 years.. I wonder how many other teams could afford something like this happening?

      Most teams. Generally speaking, most players that are drafted don’t make the majors so it wouldn’t be at all uncommon for two first rounders to leave their original teams.

    7. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 20th, 2012 | 11:47 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      I can’t wait for the Yanks to trade Hughes to the Padres or the Giants, and watch him become an All-Star level pitcher for that team

      IMO, based on his stats and Park adjustment like ATT and Petco, he will do allot better than Yankee stadium. But like IPK did he might have one solid year and then KAMBOOM! Who knows, for most Yankee fans including me, the sooner he is moved a kid like Nik Turley or Dave Phelps might be the answer they are looking for..

      Trading him at low value, Cashman will be killed for making the trade..

      I think Yankee fans have come to understand that Phil is not a bad pitcher in the sense he doesnt have the tools to be successful, its where he pitches that presents him from being what Cashman thought of him when he was drafted. I dont see why Yankee fans at this point would kill Cashman for making the trade, however, I can see some saying that he should have traded him sooner for a pitcher like Halladay or Johan. But if we all had a crystal ball.

    8. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 11:53 am

      Scout wrote:

      If Cashman is prepared to be ruthless and recognize that a guy never panned out, then he’s taking the correct approach.

      I agree with your point in the abstract but, our hopes and dreams notwithstanding, it’s hard to argue that Phil Hughes “hasn’t panned out.”

      Although the survey is a little over two years old, Hardball Times wrote something about the expected value of draft picks:

      http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/

      If you look at the three places where you get the lowest return on investment, it comes from HS pitchers in the first round, righty pitchers and players picked after the 20th pick. Hughes fits all three of these critera. And while he hasn’t been the top-end starter that he projected to be, he’s nevertheless returned about one win above replacement for his career. That means he’s beat the expectations from all others like him in his draft class (RHP from HS taken in the bottom third of the first round).

      We can all be disappointed that Hughes didn’t turn into a solid #2 starter but there’s value nonetheless in spending just under $10M since drafting Hughes ($1.4M signing bonus, plus his annual salaries from 2008-present; source Cots) and graduating him to the major leagues where he’s offered some measure of marginal value. Did the Yankees get a ton of excess value from Hughes? No. But the alternative — not graduating your draft picks and getting literally nothing out of them — is much, much worse. If the Yankees were able to successfully graduate every one of their prospects and squeeze even a little juice from them, they’d be an even better club than they are now. We all need to remember that.

      http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=146

    9. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 11:56 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      it’s hard to argue that Phil Hughes “hasn’t panned out.”

      I want to be clear about this: Hughes clearly hasn’t panned out for the Yankees as a top-end starter. My barometer for measuring success of minor leaguers, however, isn’t about simply measuring a player’s performance against his ceiling. I find such analysis to be too simplistic or unrealistic. I’d rather see if a prospect can come up to the big leagues and provide some value to the parent club. If that happens, we’ve achieved more success than we should normally expect of any young player (since most never make it out of the farm).

    10. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:15 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      it was emptying the entirety of our upper minors to acquire a guy with injury risk and then having to offer the guy a record-setting amount of money.

      Thats a valid point, but correct me if I am wrong, IPK, HUGHES and Montero where the package and if I remember correctly a guy named Kei Igawa was also asked.. Hmmm I have to go back and check that, but I am almost certain of that.. We can argue this all day back and forth, but the fact remains, and these are Cashmans words not mine, IPK and HUGHES were going to anchor the rotation for years to come.. How did that turn out?. And if I might add, IMO its NOT CC the Yankees dont sign perhaps its AJ BURNETT the Yankees dont sign the following year.. Did that occur to you?.

      And to add one last item.. When was Santana ever hurt with the Twins?. It wasn’t until the Mets over used him the past 4 years that his arm got injured due to a horrible bullpen they had which forced him to pitch longer innings. The secret to the Yankee rotation success was to get 6 innings from your starters and then let the middle inning guys take it from there. Its been part of their success since Stick and Watson were in charge if memory service me right..

      It’s highly likely that the Blue Jays never intended to trade Roy Halladay to an American League team and even more likely that they never intended to trade him to a team within the division that had the means of extending his contract and keeping him in the AL East.

      Dont look now but Jessie Barfield waves HELLO!!.. Let me ask you a question, do you honestly believe if a trade helps your team both short term and long term you dont make it because your in the same division?.. ok, maybe there is a rule written in the GM’s handbook that might say this, but until I see it, I don’t believe it.. The job of a GM, last I looked was to make trades that help your ball club win. After all getting paid millions a year has to reflect somehow, correct?

    11. Evan3457
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:40 pm

      As calculated by Fangraphs, Hughes’ marginal value, in millions of dollars, starting with 2009…

      2009: 10.8
      2010: 9.9
      2011: 3.2
      2012: 7.5 (5.6 so far, the 7.5 is pro-rated)

    12. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:40 pm

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      IPK and HUGHES were going to anchor the rotation for years to come.

      I don’t see your point here. Cashman originally intended to have Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation but he had an opportunity to turn Kennedy into an everyday CF so he made a trade. Where’s the issue?

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      And if I might add, IMO its NOT CC the Yankees dont sign perhaps its AJ BURNETT the Yankees dont sign the following year. Did that occur to you?.

      It did not occur to me because I don’t believe the calculus was either trade for Santana in 2008 or sign Burnett in 2009. The intent was to slot Sabathia — at roughly the same money and years as Santana would’ve required — in the #1 starter spot. Burnett could’ve been signed irrespective of whether the Yankees traded for Santana or signed Sabathia.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      When was Santana ever hurt with the Twins?

      There were plenty of questions about Santana’s health in the days and months leading up to his trade. Look at his second half splits for 2007 and you’ll see the ERA went up over a full run (2.75 to 4.04). Plenty of attention was paid to the fact that he had adjusted his repertoire and that there was speculation that his workload over the previous four seasons had taxed his arm.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      Dont look now but Jessie Barfield waves HELLO!!

      You’re going to use an example from 1990 to argue that things remain contstant for 20 years and that Hall of Fame caliber pitchers and trades for disgruntled outfielders are the same thing? OK then, I guess we can just agree to disagree on this entire line of conversation…

    13. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:42 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      That means he’s beat the expectations from all others like him in his draft class (RHP from HS taken in the bottom third of the first round).

      While watching this years MLB draft, some scout mentioned the success rate of first round picks to make it to the ML. Odds are not Great after you reach the top ten no matter the position…

      Also, I have no doubt that this information is gathered after the facts, but have you seen Hughes RS (run support) since joining the Yankee rotation?. in 95 games started he got 442 runs or 4.65 runs per game. and in 2010 his best year, in 29 starts the he got 146. thats slightly over 5 runs per game.. Not to many teams I can think of in BB can give a pitcher this type of support. That to me is very taxing on your offense to ask for each time you pitch in order for you to have a winning record. But then again, I think WINS and LOSSES are a stupid sat IMO… I think of Nova this year having the same issue. Last year he received over 6 runs of support a game.. This year its down to 5.. Thats good insight on your links.. Thanks for the information!!..

    14. Scout
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:43 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      agree with your point in the abstract but, our hopes and dreams notwithstanding, it’s hard to argue that Phil Hughes “hasn’t panned out.”

      I wasn’t arguing here about Hughes per se. My point was a more general one about how a GM needs to view the prospectes he’s drafted. He cannot afford to be too deeply invested in a guy because it looks bad when he doesn’t becoem a star. On Hughes, we are in accord — he is a decent major league starter. I think we are all well beyond “dreaming” (to use Cashman’s word) of Hughes as a front-of-rotation starter.

    15. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:46 pm

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      While watching this years MLB draft, some scout mentioned the success rate of first round picks to make it to the ML. Odds are not Great after you reach the top ten no matter the position…

      According to an article in Sports Illustrated about Dylan Bundy, of all HS pitchers drafted in the first round from 1981-present, 43% never made the big leagues and 34% reached 20 career wins. That means it was more likely for your draft pick to bust than it was for your draft pick to even achieve a very modest (20 wins) level of success.

      http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1203308/index.htm

    16. MJ Recanati
      August 20th, 2012 | 12:48 pm

      @ Scout:
      I thought you were talking about Hughes. In that case, my mistake. We definitely agree that, after an appropriate period of development, a GM and his coaching/scouting staff need to take a completely clinical view of each former prospect and figure out what remaining probability they have in achieving (or maintaining) their talent floor.

    17. FakeGeneMichaels
      August 20th, 2012 | 1:10 pm

      Scout wrote:

      On Hughes, we are in accord — he is a decent major league starter. I think we are all well beyond “dreaming” (to use Cashman’s word) of Hughes as a front-of-rotation starter.

      In all honesty MJ, I never was a fan of Phil.. Not really sure why, but until I really looked at his sabermetrics and the light bulb went off and I said WOW, he really has the tools to be good but for whatever reason it didnt pan out.. Can he still be of value, sure, a number 4 or 5 starter.. But I think you and I can add one last thought on this,, In a pitchers park like ATT and Petco or Safeco, all Phill has to do is pitch just like he has the past two years and will be very succesful there.

      Or if the Yankees really want to keep him, make Yankee stadium bigger like it was in the 1950′s!.. Good chatting with you on this topic.. I got allot of use information….

      On a side Note: I see the BIG RUSSIAN Dylan Bundy pitch down here in the south.. The kid can bring some serious HEAT!! its doesnt amount to anything, but boy if that kid stays healthy and the O’s handle him right, he might be the expection to the rules.. Time will only tell!.

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