• 2012 Yankees Are Not Exactly The Comeback Kids

    Posted by on September 17th, 2012 · Comments (6)

    Maybe they should be called the “DNR Geriatrics”? Check out the stats, this season, through yesterday’s game:

    • When the Yankees are trailing in the game after the 4th inning, their record in these games is 13-41.
    • When the Yankees are trailing in the game after the 5th inning, their record in these games is 15-49.
    • When the Yankees are trailing in the game after the 6th inning, their record in these games is 11-51.
    • When the Yankees are trailing in the game after the 7th inning, their record in these games is 8-54.
    • When the Yankees are trailing in the game after the 8th inning, their record in these games is 0-54.

    Pretty much, if the Yankees are losing after 6 innings, they’re going to lose that game 80% of the time, based on their record in these situations to date. And, if they are losing after 8 innings, it’s game over.

    But, then again, how many teams are much better than this?  Probably not many…

    Comments on 2012 Yankees Are Not Exactly The Comeback Kids

    1. Evan3457
      September 17th, 2012 | 2:00 pm

      The Yanks are the only team in MLB who have not won a game coming from behind in the 9th. By way of comparison, the Rays have won 6 such games. The A’s have won 5 such games. The Twins also have 6 comeback wins in the 9th.

      =====================================

      However, in all other comeback situations, the Yanks do quite well, comparatively speaking. They’ve had very few comeback wins lately, which is why it seems they never come back. The Yanks last comeback win was the 3rd game in Tampa, and all they overcame was a 1-0 lead after 3 innings. The last significant comeback win was the 3-run rally in the 7th (error-aided) in the middle game vs. the O’s at the Stadium earlier in the month.

      Breaking it down:

      Yanks are tied for 2nd in the AL with 38 comeback wins for the season. (O’s are 1st with 39). Yanks led the league most of the season

      Yanks are tied with the O’s for 1st in the AL with 15 comeback wins after being behind after 5.

      Yanks are 2nd in the league (again, to the O’s) with 11 comeback wins after being behind after 6.

      Yanks are tied with the O’s for 1st in the AL with 8 comeback wins after being behind after 7. The eight 8th-inning comebacks almost certainly leads the league for that inning alone.

      ==============================
      Let’s back off and run at it from another direction…expected wins.

      The AL average for comeback wins is 31.6; the Yanks are running 6.4 wins ahead of that.

      The AL WPCT for teams behind after 5 is .164. The Yanks have been been after 5 in 64 games. The avg. expectation is 10.5 wins. The Yanks are +5.5 wins in that situation.

      The AL WPCT for teams behind after 6 is .127. The Yanks have been been after 6 in 62 games. The avg. expectation is 7.9 wins. The Yanks are +3.1 wins in that situation.

      The AL WPCT for teams behind after 7 is .082. The Yanks have been been after 5 in 62 games. The avg. expectation is 5.1 wins. The Yanks are +2.9 wins in that situation.

      The AL WPCT for teams behind after 8 is .053. The Yanks have been been after 5 in 54 games. The avg. expectation is 2.9 wins. The Yanks are -2.9 wins in that situation.The average AL team has 5.7 walkoff wins. The Yanks have 2. There’s the missing 2.9 ninth-inning comeback wins in a nutshell.

      To sum up, the Yanks are the worst team in baseball in coming back after 8 innings; it’s cost them about 3 wins. In all other deficit situations they’ve been quite good, about 3 to 6 wins better than average.

      What does this all mean? Beats me.

    2. 77yankees
      September 17th, 2012 | 3:07 pm

      Truth is, as you admitted, Steve, you’re not going to see a team that’s say 30-25 when trailing after 8 innings.

      It’s like the inverse of the bases loaded stat for batters. You know, so and so is hitting .390 in his career with the bases loaded. You never see a stat that says, “Player X is 7 for 85 in his career with the bases loaded”.

    3. redring
      September 22nd, 2012 | 12:35 pm

      @ Evan3457:

      Where does one get these kind of stats for all teams?

    4. September 22nd, 2012 | 7:04 pm

      @ redring:
      Baseball-reference.com

    5. 77yankees
      September 22nd, 2012 | 8:29 pm

      The Yanks are now 1-0 when trailing by four runs going into the bottom of the 13th inning.

    6. Evan3457
      September 22nd, 2012 | 9:02 pm

      77yankees wrote:

      The Yanks are now 1-0 when trailing by four runs going into the bottom of the 13th inning.

      But…OH NOES! THEY STILL DUZN’T HAS A WINS WHEN BEHINE AFTER EIHGT INNINGZ!!!

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