• Home Cooking & Opponent Today Perfect For David Phelps?

    Posted by on October 2nd, 2012 · Comments (63)

    To date this season, batters are hitting .198 against David Phelps when he’s pitching at Yankee Stadium. (This is over a period of 15 games, 55 innings pitched, and 224 batters faced. So, sample size provisions apply.)

    The Boston Red Sox, who Phelps will be facing this evening in the Bronx, in their last 12 games, have a BA/OBA/SLG line of .208/.251/.307 (in 389 PA).

    Is this a match made in heaven, for Yankees fans?

    Comments on Home Cooking & Opponent Today Perfect For David Phelps?

    1. FakeGeneMichaels
      October 3rd, 2012 | 9:40 am

      ..@ MJ Recanati:
      received five or fewer runs in 59% of his 28 starts last year
      Nova the second-most run support in baseball last year (6.00 RSA). which is it? 5 or fewer or 6?.. RsA on fan graph says its 6..

      I keep forgetting this is not some ramdon blog site I stumbled on to.. But I too am a sabermetrics guy.. I agree Wins and losses are a horrible measure of a pitchers value.. but its sure hard to argue 6 RSA isnt allot for a pitcher in the 5th hole of the rotation. My take on it, Nova pitches better knowing the run support are there unlike at times this year were he is pressing.. Maybe its the sophmore jinxs or maybe the rest of the league finally caught up to him and have him figured out.. Or maybe its all in Nova’s head.. One can only guess at this point, but you cant measure the heart of the warrior until he is called into battle.. And from what I seen of Philps both in the minors and Big league, I think the kid has his emotions under control. OR as its knonw in BB terms pitching with confidence… Pitching scared or pitching too fine might be Nova’s issue, but for now, Philps is pitching lights out. If Philps was a top draft pick then I wouldnt be so excited, but at least he is showing the effort and is fighting hard to take a spot in the rotation next season. Who knows what holds in the future, but for now as Yankee fans, dont you think we should be a little excited for him?

    2. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 9:43 am

      JeremyM wrote:

      I think of Phelps right now as being a Ramiro Mendoza type- he’s able to start, maybe come in and soak up some innings, or even get a few big outs in tough spots.

      A pretty good comparison. Phelps should be given every opporunity to earn the #5 starter spot next year but, if he can’t do that job, should be given two-inning stints out of the bullpen as often as possible.

      The one-inning specialization that Girardi and other managers favor is idiotic. If you have a guy that can get six outs between two and three times a week, you should use him.

    3. FakeGeneMichaels
      October 3rd, 2012 | 9:46 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Phelps should be given every opporunity to earn the #5 starter spot next year but, if he can’t do that job, should be given two-inning stints out of the bullpen as often as possible.

      we finally agree on something Mj 🙂

    4. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 9:52 am

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      which is it? 5 or fewer or 6?.

      59% of starts of five runs or fewer but an average of six runs per game. Those stats are not mutually exclusive so I’m not following what your question is. He had seven starts of nine or more runs (including games of 11, 16, and 17 runs in support) which obviously skews the average up but if the majority — and nearly a two-thirds majority — of all starts received run support of five or fewer runs (and 41% of all starts with four or fewer runs in support), that provides a degree of context that is missed by simply stating that Nova was the beneficiary of the second-best run support in all of baseball.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      Who knows what holds in the future, but for now as Yankee fans, dont you think we should be a little excited for him?

      Nope, no reason to be excited about a back-end guy. He’s a back-end guy and those types are, by definition, fungible.

      It’s not to say that I’m displeased with him. As long as he’s here, I wish him well and hope he succeeds. But I don’t buy into this “heart of a warrior” or “stones for New York” stuff. He’s a back-end guy, a guy that provides marginal value that we should be grateful for. Nothing more, nothing less.

    5. FakeGeneMichaels
      October 3rd, 2012 | 10:17 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Nope, no reason to be excited about a back-end guy. He’s a back-end guy and those types are, by definition, fungible.

      If you don’t buy the heart of warrior or stones to pitch in NY and please understand, I respect your opinion, but Ed Witson, Javy Vasquez (twice), AJ Burnett, might tell you differently.. I get your point, backend of the rotation guys don’t excite you.. Lets make sure you still have that feeling when Phil Hughes asks for 5.5mm per year after next season as a number four starter. Just my opinion on that..

    6. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 10:25 am

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      , but Ed Witson, Javy Vasquez (twice), AJ Burnett, might tell you differently

      Correlation does not imply causation, as the saying goes.

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      Lets make sure you still have that feeling when Phil Hughes asks for 5.5mm per year after next season as a number four starter.

      I don’t understand your point. $5.5M is fair value for a guy worth one marginal win above replacement. Phil Hughes (1.5 bWAR; 1.8bWAR) would be perfectly justified in asking for — and receiving — $5.5M to be the #4 starter next year.

      If you’re saying that I should be disassionate about Phil Hughes and that he can be replaced, I never said anything to the contrary. Next year is his final year in New York, given that his career arc at this point shows that he’s a #4 in the AL with #3 upside in the NL. The Yankees should not keep Hughes beyond next year unless he’s willing to sign for market value or less.

    7. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 10:26 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      disassionate

      *dispassionate

    8. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 10:28 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      1.8bWAR

      *1.8 fWAR

      Goddamn typos.

    9. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 10:39 am

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      …AJ Burnett, might tell you differently.

      I don’t want to get into this discussion because it’s an entirely emotional argument and one side will never convince the other on this subject…. but it is interesting to me that, for a guy that supposedly “couldn’t handle New York”, Burnett pitched brilliantly in the single-biggest game of the 2009 season (WS Game 2), and did so at home, no less.

      With Burnett, it was really not about not being able to handle New York. It was really about the degradation of his stuff. He lost two MPH off his fastball and, straight as it was to begin with, it became a bad setup for his spike-curve which got played up by his previously plus-plus velocity. It’s basically the Joba problem: a two pitch pitcher that couldn’t locate his fastball suddenly saw his secondary stuff become marginally less effective because he couldn’t set up hitters.

      His improved performance in the NL isn’t surprising, even with diminished stuff. Shaving a walk off his nine-inning peripherals and pitching to weaker lineups would be the prescription for many pitchers in their decline years.

    10. FakeGeneMichaels
      October 3rd, 2012 | 12:05 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      If you’re saying that I should be disassionate about Phil Hughes and that he can be replaced, I never said anything to the contrary

      Not applying you said any such matters.. I am merely suggesting your opinion of back end starters are fungible or a dime a dozen.. seems logical that its better to keep a guy like Philps under contract who is making 425k a year for the next 4 years than to pay a guy like Hughes 5.5mm for say 2 or three years.Given the new CBA agreement and the looming luxury tax the Yankee face, why not save the money and use it for another player?. After all, the Yankee have allot of pitchers who fall into the number 4 and 5 in the minor leagues. I respect your opinion, not sure if I would dimiss the notion that some players simply can or can not pitch in the fish bowl know as NY.. but then again, who really understands why players put them selves thru that emotional roller coster ride to begin with. Maybe the pressure of playing for the Yankees and knowing the demand the fans and media expect has something to do with it. One day when I find out, I will be sure to pass it along to you.

    11. FakeGeneMichaels
      October 3rd, 2012 | 12:12 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Correlation does not imply causation, as the saying goes

      it might not indeed, but just for the record, Preception is Reality.

    12. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 2:07 pm

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      Preception is Reality.

      Actually, it isn’t, and that’s kind of the point. Perception is whatever you want it to be. Perception can be reality, if you want it to be or, just as easily, perception can simply be perception itself.

    13. MJ Recanati
      October 3rd, 2012 | 2:20 pm

      FakeGeneMichaels wrote:

      seems logical that its better to keep a guy like Philps under contract who is making 425k a year for the next 4 years than to pay a guy like Hughes 5.5mm for say 2 or three years.Given the new CBA agreement and the looming luxury tax the Yankee face, why not save the money and use it for another player?. After all, the Yankee have allot of pitchers who fall into the number 4 and 5 in the minor leagues

      To the extent that they have others to fill the #4 role, then, sure, letting Hughes walk after 2013 is perfectly acceptable. At present, it’s unlikely that the Yankees would agree to go into the 2014 season with Sabathia and four back-end starters so it’s entirely premature to start talking about what the Yankees should do with Hughes before they’ve identified internal replacements.

      The principle is soemthing I agree to, however: you don’t overpay for #4 or #5 starters and you should be able to fill those roles via internal options or scrap-heap signings.

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