Home Cooking & Opponent Today Perfect For David Phelps?
Posted by Steve L. on October 2nd, 2012 · Comments (63)
To date this season, batters are hitting .198 against David Phelps when he’s pitching at Yankee Stadium. (This is over a period of 15 games, 55 innings pitched, and 224 batters faced. So, sample size provisions apply.)
The Boston Red Sox, who Phelps will be facing this evening in the Bronx, in their last 12 games, have a BA/OBA/SLG line of .208/.251/.307 (in 389 PA).
Is this a match made in heaven, for Yankees fans?
Gimme 4 or 5 strong. Anything more than that is gravy.
Not if Phelps presses, as he did in his first couple of pennant race starts. If he’s more relaxed, as he was he last couple of starts, he’ll be fine for 5-6 innings.
No question. The bullpen will be there for at least 3 innings, maybe four, tonight. So, Phelps only needs to cover five.
I guess they will get the game in tonight? It’s a mess in Morristown NJ right now.
I’m sorry but Girardi is a freaking idiot. How do you take your hottest hitter and drop him to 5th in the line-up?! As I write this the Yankees are losing 2-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning. I wonder how many runs we would have if he would have just switched Cano and Texiera in the line-up? And what kind of protection does Cano have with Martin batting behind him? I am so freaking sick of Giradi’s constant line-up changes, most of which make absolutely no sense.
LMJ229 wrote:
I agree.. Sitting here watching this nightmare.. Cano leads off with a single and Marting is not bunting?.. Why the hell is Giradi thinking here?.. I mean come on for the love of baseball, please use your head here Joe.. Twice Tex grounds into a double play.. too many damm HR’s this team lives by…
Tampa Rays just sucks period.. They cant score a run against a AAA pitcher tonight?.. Just freaking horrible…
There goes the game.. Joba coming in now.. I am so sick of this..
Teix needs to stop trying to pull outside pitches.
Raf wrote:
Can you please Twitt Tex and tell him that!.. If your not going to drive in the runners or move them 90 feet, then drop down a bunt please.. Good lord.. Only in BB can you be right 30 percent of the time and be a millionaire!!..
Raf wrote:
AMEN to that!
10 hits, one walk, and 1 error through seven innings and we only have one freaking run! Are we actually going to lose to Boston at home with the division on the line?! I just can’t believe it.
(Although I should, they’ve been doing this all year long)
LMJ229 wrote:
ITs a nightmare.. How can you not play a little small ball.. Live by the HR and die by RISP.. UGH.. I hate this!
O’s win 1-0.. Horrible offense they have.. Remind me to send Maddon a christmas gift.. A new owner who will send a few bucks to get a hitter..
Gardner just got picked(!) This team is absolutely maddening. I’m glad I have plans tomorrow and won’t be able to watch.
And james loney just goes yard.. what a nightmare.. the guy sucks and Sorie hangs a meatball pitch.Good grief.. I am opening the Jack Daniels.. who wants a drink?…
3-1 Sox. How ironic would it be to lose the division on the LAST day of the season after being in first base for nearly the entire year?!
That would piss me off that is for sure!!
YES!!!!
Live and die by the HR. .this is nuts.. Thank You Ibanez
Boy, Ibanez has really come through with some clutch shots for us this year.
Best part? You know Baltimore was watching that
We really need to end it here. I don’t want to see Soriano out there again.
They Walk swisher to get to A-rod.. Ok.. time to make them pay for this.. Come on A-rod earn some of that 27mm dollar contract will you please
bases Load.. I swear if Tex doesn come thru now, I am done with him too!
Come on Tex.. you better earn that 23mm year contract.. Remember why your not a redsox today..
Texiera has absolutely killed us tonight.
bases loaded and one out and Tex once again folds like lawn furniture.. AGGGGHHHHtHH… Some one please get a damm hit
I can’t take this anymore …
I can not believe they cant score a run with less than two outs and basesloaded.. WTF!!..
LMJ229 wrote:
you and I both.. Need another drink!
Teixeira and Cano with RISP usually results in #RISPfail.
MJ Recanati wrote:
something needs to change in a hurry.. I cant take this much longer.. I really cant.. they ae killing me tonight..
Great now Ciriaco is up.. the guys is hitting like 900 against the yankees.. Walk him here with a runner on second please!!
Ok.. who has Ichiro hitting a walk off Home run this inning?…
ok.. anyone got jeter with a walk off HR?
is it me or does Andrew Miller look like Tom Hanks in cast away?
THE YANKEES WIN!!!!!!!!!!! THANK GOD!!!
whew!
He’s certainly old and he’s certainly not what he used to be, but Raul Ibanez is certainly clutch!
lets not forget the rookie Phelps!!. 2 runs on 3 hits.. The kid has the stones to pitch in this town!. Finally a pitcher we have hopes for the future in!!
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
He’s perfect in this role, injuries are why he has gotten so much PT.
Raf wrote:
And he certainly made the most of the opportunities.. By far the best move this year Ibanez and Chavez.. where would the Yankees be without them..
Time to turn on the A;s and Tex.. We all have to be A;s fans tonight!
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
Too soon to say that. Really, he is what he is: a back-end starter which means he’s likely to be as volatile as last year’s back-end starter that earned too much praise too soon (Ivan Nova). They’re both #5 guys just as likely to have a great season as they are to stink. That’s why they’re #5 starters…
Was it just me, or, did Phelps look pissed when Girardi came to take him out? Did he even diss Joe on the ball hand-off?
Steve L. wrote:
He definitely looked pissed. I noticed that too. I thought he muttered something under his breath but I can’t be sure.
MJ Recanati wrote:
That might be true MJ and in most cases I would agree, but the kid has the stones to make it in NY I think.. He is never going to be an ace, but a back end pitcher who doesnt need allot of run support like Nova did last year and this year to stack the wins.. If Tex came thru last night in the first and fourth inning with RISP, today we would all be prasing Philps for pitching clutch.. even if it was against a AAA line up.. I would take Philps on my rotation all year long and see how he does.. hey Nova, you hearing those footsteps getting louder?…
Steve L. wrote:
The kid was crusing along. Maybe he simply said sorry for not holding them down to no runs?.. who knows for usre.. But I sure he must of said something but Philps doesnt strike me as being another Ian Kennedy type.. I think he knows better than to dis the skipper.. Or I sure hope so for his sake!..
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
That’s what everyone said about Nova last year. And I won’t even get into the debate about the “NY is tough” fallacy.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
Nova had a 3.70 ERA in 2011 and received five or fewer runs in 59% of his 28 starts last year. Hard to argue that his 16 wins were exclusively due to run support. I won’t say that he didn’t have some games where there was tremendous run support (26% of starts with nine or more runs) but since wins aren’t a good measure of pitcher performance it’s ultimately quite irrelevant how he came to win his 16 games. The peripherals were good enough to justify his solid 2011 season.
For comparison, Nova the second-most run support in baseball last year (6.00 RSA). Sabathia received the fifth-most run support in baseball last year (5.58 RSA). All we’ve proven is that the Yankees had a good offense last year.
I think of Phelps right now as being a Ramiro Mendoza type- he’s able to start, maybe come in and soak up some innings, or even get a few big outs in tough spots.
..@ MJ Recanati:
received five or fewer runs in 59% of his 28 starts last year
Nova the second-most run support in baseball last year (6.00 RSA). which is it? 5 or fewer or 6?.. RsA on fan graph says its 6..
I keep forgetting this is not some ramdon blog site I stumbled on to.. But I too am a sabermetrics guy.. I agree Wins and losses are a horrible measure of a pitchers value.. but its sure hard to argue 6 RSA isnt allot for a pitcher in the 5th hole of the rotation. My take on it, Nova pitches better knowing the run support are there unlike at times this year were he is pressing.. Maybe its the sophmore jinxs or maybe the rest of the league finally caught up to him and have him figured out.. Or maybe its all in Nova’s head.. One can only guess at this point, but you cant measure the heart of the warrior until he is called into battle.. And from what I seen of Philps both in the minors and Big league, I think the kid has his emotions under control. OR as its knonw in BB terms pitching with confidence… Pitching scared or pitching too fine might be Nova’s issue, but for now, Philps is pitching lights out. If Philps was a top draft pick then I wouldnt be so excited, but at least he is showing the effort and is fighting hard to take a spot in the rotation next season. Who knows what holds in the future, but for now as Yankee fans, dont you think we should be a little excited for him?
JeremyM wrote:
A pretty good comparison. Phelps should be given every opporunity to earn the #5 starter spot next year but, if he can’t do that job, should be given two-inning stints out of the bullpen as often as possible.
The one-inning specialization that Girardi and other managers favor is idiotic. If you have a guy that can get six outs between two and three times a week, you should use him.
MJ Recanati wrote:
we finally agree on something Mj
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
59% of starts of five runs or fewer but an average of six runs per game. Those stats are not mutually exclusive so I’m not following what your question is. He had seven starts of nine or more runs (including games of 11, 16, and 17 runs in support) which obviously skews the average up but if the majority — and nearly a two-thirds majority — of all starts received run support of five or fewer runs (and 41% of all starts with four or fewer runs in support), that provides a degree of context that is missed by simply stating that Nova was the beneficiary of the second-best run support in all of baseball.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
Nope, no reason to be excited about a back-end guy. He’s a back-end guy and those types are, by definition, fungible.
It’s not to say that I’m displeased with him. As long as he’s here, I wish him well and hope he succeeds. But I don’t buy into this “heart of a warrior” or “stones for New York” stuff. He’s a back-end guy, a guy that provides marginal value that we should be grateful for. Nothing more, nothing less.
MJ Recanati wrote:
If you don’t buy the heart of warrior or stones to pitch in NY and please understand, I respect your opinion, but Ed Witson, Javy Vasquez (twice), AJ Burnett, might tell you differently.. I get your point, backend of the rotation guys don’t excite you.. Lets make sure you still have that feeling when Phil Hughes asks for 5.5mm per year after next season as a number four starter. Just my opinion on that..
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
Correlation does not imply causation, as the saying goes.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
I don’t understand your point. $5.5M is fair value for a guy worth one marginal win above replacement. Phil Hughes (1.5 bWAR; 1.8bWAR) would be perfectly justified in asking for — and receiving — $5.5M to be the #4 starter next year.
If you’re saying that I should be disassionate about Phil Hughes and that he can be replaced, I never said anything to the contrary. Next year is his final year in New York, given that his career arc at this point shows that he’s a #4 in the AL with #3 upside in the NL. The Yankees should not keep Hughes beyond next year unless he’s willing to sign for market value or less.
MJ Recanati wrote:
*dispassionate
MJ Recanati wrote:
*1.8 fWAR
Goddamn typos.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
I don’t want to get into this discussion because it’s an entirely emotional argument and one side will never convince the other on this subject…. but it is interesting to me that, for a guy that supposedly “couldn’t handle New York”, Burnett pitched brilliantly in the single-biggest game of the 2009 season (WS Game 2), and did so at home, no less.
With Burnett, it was really not about not being able to handle New York. It was really about the degradation of his stuff. He lost two MPH off his fastball and, straight as it was to begin with, it became a bad setup for his spike-curve which got played up by his previously plus-plus velocity. It’s basically the Joba problem: a two pitch pitcher that couldn’t locate his fastball suddenly saw his secondary stuff become marginally less effective because he couldn’t set up hitters.
His improved performance in the NL isn’t surprising, even with diminished stuff. Shaving a walk off his nine-inning peripherals and pitching to weaker lineups would be the prescription for many pitchers in their decline years.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Not applying you said any such matters.. I am merely suggesting your opinion of back end starters are fungible or a dime a dozen.. seems logical that its better to keep a guy like Philps under contract who is making 425k a year for the next 4 years than to pay a guy like Hughes 5.5mm for say 2 or three years.Given the new CBA agreement and the looming luxury tax the Yankee face, why not save the money and use it for another player?. After all, the Yankee have allot of pitchers who fall into the number 4 and 5 in the minor leagues. I respect your opinion, not sure if I would dimiss the notion that some players simply can or can not pitch in the fish bowl know as NY.. but then again, who really understands why players put them selves thru that emotional roller coster ride to begin with. Maybe the pressure of playing for the Yankees and knowing the demand the fans and media expect has something to do with it. One day when I find out, I will be sure to pass it along to you.
MJ Recanati wrote:
it might not indeed, but just for the record, Preception is Reality.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
Actually, it isn’t, and that’s kind of the point. Perception is whatever you want it to be. Perception can be reality, if you want it to be or, just as easily, perception can simply be perception itself.
FakeGeneMichaels wrote:
To the extent that they have others to fill the #4 role, then, sure, letting Hughes walk after 2013 is perfectly acceptable. At present, it’s unlikely that the Yankees would agree to go into the 2014 season with Sabathia and four back-end starters so it’s entirely premature to start talking about what the Yankees should do with Hughes before they’ve identified internal replacements.
The principle is soemthing I agree to, however: you don’t overpay for #4 or #5 starters and you should be able to fill those roles via internal options or scrap-heap signings.