• The Rumored Wil Myers For Jon Lester Deal

    Posted by on November 27th, 2012 · Comments (21)

    The story.

    This would be a fascinating trade, if it happens.

    Imagine if the Yankees traded Andy Pettitte to the Rays for Josh Hamilton back in November of 2000.

    No, that was not a rumored deal, at the time.

    More so, that’s what a Lester-Myers deal would have been like – had it happened back then instead of now.

    Comments on The Rumored Wil Myers For Jon Lester Deal

    1. Evan3457
      November 27th, 2012 | 10:49 am

      So…the Royals had the guy who used to run the minor leagues for the Braves as their GM…

      …and he drafts a whole lotta of top pitching prospects…

      …and two years ago, all these prospects are on the verge of breaking through in the major leagues…

      …and now, all these great pitching prospects have dissipated to the point they have to trade a stud hitting prospect like Myers for Lester.

      Interesting how this sort of thing happens to organizations run by non-Cashmans as well as Cashmans.

    2. MJ Recanati
      November 27th, 2012 | 12:10 pm

      @ Evan3457:
      Yep.

      And having said that, I don’t get the trade for the Royals (either for Lester or for James Shields). You’re not contending, Lester’s in decline, Shields is a good pitcher but not more than a #2 at his best, and six years of Myers is cheaper ahd more valuable than one or two years of either Shields or Lester.

    3. Ricketson
      November 27th, 2012 | 3:04 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      So…the Royals had the guy who used to run the minor leagues for the Braves as their GM…

      The Royals’ G.M., Moore, was an Asst. G.M. under the Braves’ G.M. (Schuerholz) and held that position for less than a year before coming to K.C. in 2005 (Dir. of Player Personnel Dev., 2002 to 05). In K.C., he has selected Sora in the ’06 Rule 5 draft, drafted Hosmer in ’08, drafted Myers in ’09 (3rd Round), got prospects Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffress from Mil. in a trade of Greinke and Betancourt in ’10 (resigning Betancourt in ’12), and signed Francoeur (originally drafting him in ’02) in ’11. Lester seems like a better fit elsewhere at 29 and under contract until 31 for $24.625 mil., though.

    4. Evan3457
      November 27th, 2012 | 6:08 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      So…the Royals had the guy who used to run the minor leagues for the Braves as their GM…
      The Royals’ G.M., Moore, was an Asst. G.M. under the Braves’ G.M. (Schuerholz) and held that position for less than a year before coming to K.C. in 2005 (Dir. of Player Personnel Dev., 2002 to 05). In K.C., he has selected Sora in the ’06 Rule 5 draft, drafted Hosmer in ’08, drafted Myers in ’09 (3rd Round), got prospects Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffress from Mil. in a trade of Greinke and Betancourt in ’10 (resigning Betancourt in ’12), and signed Francoeur (originally drafting him in ’02) in ’11. Lester seems like a better fit elsewhere at 29 and under contract until 31 for $24.625 mil., though.

      My point is not that Moore has done a bad job collecting talent, but that pitching prospects go up in smoke at an extremely high rate. What the Rays and Giants have done is exceptional, and far from usual. How much is luck, and how much skill…?

    5. Raf
      November 27th, 2012 | 7:13 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:
      Moore has done some head scratchers as Royals GM. Rumors are that he’s targeting a “top” pitcher, so this deal may go through anyway.

      Not the way I’d go, it will take a lot for the Royals to get past both the Tigers and White Sox, but I guess it’s better than what they have now.

    6. Ricketson
      November 27th, 2012 | 7:38 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      My point is not that Moore has done a bad job collecting talent, but that pitching prospects go up in smoke at an extremely high rate. What the Rays and Giants have done is exceptional, and far from usual. How much is luck, and how much skill…?

      It seems that it is more luck with some clubs than with others.

    7. Evan3457
      November 27th, 2012 | 9:23 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      My point is not that Moore has done a bad job collecting talent, but that pitching prospects go up in smoke at an extremely high rate. What the Rays and Giants have done is exceptional, and far from usual. How much is luck, and how much skill…?
      It seems that it is more luck with some clubs than with others.

      Well, let’s take the Braves. For years, the Braves had an excellent reputation for developing young pitching. But in the last two years, Jurrjens damaged his shoulder, is a shadow of what he was, and is going to be non-tendered, Hanson damaged his shoulder, is nowhere near what he looked like just 12 months ago, and apparently will either be traded for an outfielder or compete for the 5th starter’s job, Vizcaino had TJ surgery and was traded for Paul Maholm, Delgado has bounced up and down from AAA to the majors for the last year and a half and hasn’t established himself yet, and Teheran, the best of the bunch by scouting reports/reputation, hasn’t broken through in the majors in any role, regressed last year in AAA, and will also fight for that 5th starter’s job.

    8. Ricketson
      November 28th, 2012 | 2:16 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Well, let’s take the Braves. For years, the Braves had an excellent reputation for developing young pitching. But in the last two years…

      Taking the Braves, its president, Schuerholz, drafted a staff that won a W.S. in 1985 and as an A.L. G.M. with K.C., and won a W.S. in ’95 as an N.L. G.M. with Atl. and a staff of Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux. Atl. acquired Jurrjens in his early 20s in 2008, drafted Hanson in 2005, and traded young pitching to acquire Vizcaino in 2009. As written, Atl. has had an excellent reputation for its development of young pitching for years. Injury to young pitching, on the other hand, has occurred in organizations run by non-Cashmans for centuries, or since 1845. I looked up Jurrjens’ injury history out of curiosity online, and noticed the following excerpt in a 2011 column:

      “… Jurrjens was placed on the… DL with a strained knee, removing his 12-4 record and 2.63 ERA from the rotation. It’s the same knee he had surgery on in Oct… Unlike some clubs, such as the Yankees, who have some dispute as to who their true No. 2 pitcher is, the Braves basically reacted with a shrug and promoted Minor, a highly regarded left-hander… Jurrjens has the lowest ERA on the staff… Hanson averages fewer hits and more strikeouts per nine innings.”

      Minor was drafted by Atl. in 2009, and had a 5-3 record and 4.04 ERA at the age of 23 replacing Jurrjens in 2011.

    9. MJ Recanati
      November 28th, 2012 | 2:41 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      [Atlanta] traded young pitching to acquire Vizcaino in 2009

      Just to point out that the Braves didn’t trade young pitching to acquire Vizcaino, they traded Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to acquire Vizcaino, Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn.

    10. Ricketson
      November 28th, 2012 | 4:30 pm

      I was referring to Logan as “young pitching” in that he was 25 with only 2 years at the major league level, and he had not matured into the pitcher he has become in The Bronx.
      @ MJ Recanati:

    11. Evan3457
      November 28th, 2012 | 5:49 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      Taking the Braves, its president, Schuerholz, drafted a staff that won a W.S. in 1985 and as an A.L. G.M. with K.C., and won a W.S. in ’95 as an N.L. G.M. with Atl. and a staff of Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux. Atl. acquired Jurrjens in his early 20s in 2008, drafted Hanson in 2005, and traded young pitching to acquire Vizcaino in 2009. As written, Atl. has had an excellent reputation for its development of young pitching for years. Injury to young pitching, on the other hand, has occurred in organizations run by non-Cashmans for centuries, or since 1845. I looked up Jurrjens’ injury history out of curiosity online, and noticed the following excerpt in a 2011 column:
      “… Jurrjens was placed on the… DL with a strained knee, removing his 12-4 record and 2.63 ERA from the rotation. It’s the same knee he had surgery on in Oct… Unlike some clubs, such as the Yankees, who have some dispute as to who their true No. 2 pitcher is, the Braves basically reacted with a shrug and promoted Minor, a highly regarded left-hander… Jurrjens has the lowest ERA on the staff… Hanson averages fewer hits and more strikeouts per nine innings.”
      Minor was drafted by Atl. in 2009, and had a 5-3 record and 4.04 ERA at the age of 23 replacing Jurrjens in 2011.

      That’s my point, pretty much. The Braves who have an excellent track record with young pitching, came up with the five I mentioned, and also Minor, who I forgot about, and almost all of it has evaporated in the last 2 seasons.

      As for Jurrjens, he HAD a knee injury, and his most recent listed injury was a groin injury. He was on the DL twice with a bad shoulder, possibly from trying to pitch on the bad knee, and his stuff and command are greatly diminished from his peak.

      As for Minor, he wasn’t a #2 pitcher when they promoted, and he’s still not a #2 pitcher now. He may be a #2 someday; but the other half of maybe is maybe not.

      And I also forgot Brandon Beachy, who surprised even the Braves in 2011, and is now also down with Tommy John surgery.

    12. MJ Recanati
      November 28th, 2012 | 5:59 pm

      @ Ricketson:
      Boone Logan is not “young pitching” in the common use of the phrase. That he was young may be accurate but “young pitching” refers to pitching prospects, something that Logan was not. He was a LOOGY when he came over and is, to a large extent, still that.

    13. Ricketson
      November 28th, 2012 | 7:19 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      That’s my point, pretty much.

      Then I really don’t understand your point. All or most of the players you referred to sustained injuries. If you were responding to a post that I am not aware of, perhaps that is the reason. Otherwise, I don’t see the logical connection of a young pitcher that has sustained an unfortunate series of injuries, one perhaps leading to another and a trip to the DL – I don’t know, or an organization that has had a spate of injuries to its younger pitching prospects in the most recent 2 years of the organization’s last 20 years or so, to an organization’s record or reputation for its development of young pitching under a G.M., in this case Schuerholz and Moore. This was not a failure on the organization’s part. The young pitching did not “dissipate” or “evaporate” because none of the pitchers were unable to compete at the major league level.

    14. Ricketson
      November 28th, 2012 | 8:08 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      @ Ricketson:
      Boone Logan is not “young pitching” in the common use of the phrase. That he was young may be accurate but “young pitching” refers to pitching prospects, something that Logan was not. He was a LOOGY when he came over and is, to a large extent, still that.

      I’m not familiar with the term. Logan was young, the Braves’ property, and a pitcher at the time of the trade. But you’re right, he was not a prospect. He has little relevance to the discussion.

    15. Evan3457
      November 29th, 2012 | 2:10 am

      Ricketson wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      That’s my point, pretty much.
      Then I really don’t understand your point. All or most of the players you referred to sustained injuries. If you were responding to a post that I am not aware of, perhaps that is the reason. Otherwise, I don’t see the logical connection of a young pitcher that has sustained an unfortunate series of injuries, one perhaps leading to another and a trip to the DL – I don’t know, or an organization that has had a spate of injuries to its younger pitching prospects in the most recent 2 years of the organization’s last 20 years or so, to an organization’s record or reputation for its development of young pitching under a G.M., in this case Schuerholz and Moore. This was not a failure on the organization’s part. The young pitching did not “dissipate” or “evaporate” because none of the pitchers were unable to compete at the major league level.

      You really don’t understand my point?
      That’s funny, because you just explained it in the above paragraph, which is to say: Just because at one point an organization appears to have an overabundance of talented young pitching doesn’t mean it can’t evaporate completely in a very short period of time, and if does, that’s not necessarily the fault of the GM, be he named Cashman, or not named Cashman.

    16. Ricketson
      November 29th, 2012 | 12:06 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Just because at one point an organization appears to have an overabundance of talented young pitching doesn’t mean it can’t evaporate completely in a very short period of time, and if does, that’s not necessarily the fault of the GM, be he named Cashman, or not named Cashman.

      The implication seems to be that the Yankees at some point had developed an overabundance of talented young pitching, and that it evaporated completely in a very short period of time, and that Cashman was held responsible for it.

      I don’t know of a time that the team had developed an overabundance of talented young pitching since 1998. If it did, and that overabundance evaporated in a very short period of time because of injuries, then it certainly wasn’t Cashman’s fault. Are you referring to Banuelos and Betances?

      You might be more knowledgable on this subject than me, so I’ll ask you this question: How would you rank Cashman’s performance in terms of the organization’s development of young pitching in the last 10 years or so compared to general managers in other organizations, including Moore?

    17. Ricketson
      December 1st, 2012 | 1:35 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Just because at one point an organization appears to have an overabundance of talented young pitching doesn’t mean it can’t evaporate completely in a very short period of time… let’s take the Braves.

      Atlanta traded Hanson to Los Angeles for reliever Jordan Walden. “Hanson was 45-32 with a 3.61 ERA in 4 seasons… Atlanta has the depth in a rotation of Hudson, Medlen, Minor and Maholm to trade Hanson… Prospects Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado are pitching in the minors, and Brandon Beachy is expected to return midseason from TJ surgery.”

    18. McMillan
      December 1st, 2012 | 2:22 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      “Atlanta has the depth in a rotation of… Prospects [Teheran and Delgado] are pitching in the minors, and [Beachy] is expected to return…

      Interesting how this sort of thing happens to organizations run by non-Cashmans.

    19. Raf
      December 1st, 2012 | 4:49 pm

      Ricketson wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Just because at one point an organization appears to have an overabundance of talented young pitching doesn’t mean it can’t evaporate completely in a very short period of time… let’s take the Braves.
      Atlanta traded Hanson to Los Angeles for reliever Jordan Walden. “Hanson was 45-32 with a 3.61 ERA in 4 seasons… Atlanta has the depth in a rotation of Hudson, Medlen, Minor and Maholm to trade Hanson… Prospects Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado are pitching in the minors, and Brandon Beachy is expected to return midseason from TJ surgery.”

      Right, and the system had Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Kartsens, Clippard, Wright, Olendorf, DeSalvo, Horne, etc, etc, etc…

      Of course, there were times when Wickman, Hitchcock, Militello, Martel, Rivera and Taylor (Brien, not Wade), among others, were in the system.

      When the Yanks bottomed out, they gave Wade Taylor, Jeff Johnson, and Scott Kamienecki (sp?) a shot, with Alan Mills in the pen.

    20. McMillan
      December 1st, 2012 | 10:17 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:
      So I still don’t get what you’re driving at here, other than to nuke Cashman.

      I was driving at a comparison of Non-Cashman organizations and Cashman organizations in the last 43 yrs.

      Since 1969 when the L.C.S. was introduced, the most successful franchises, such as the one you mentioned – Atlanta, have had stability in their starting rotations and in their most successful period(s). What have been the most successful franchises in M.L.B. since each league split into Eastern and Western divisions in 1969? And in their period(s) of most success, did they not have stability in their rotations?

      Of course, some of those franchises did not have more world championships than N.Y. has had since 2003 – they did not have the highest payroll in M.L.B. or offenses comparable to N.Y.’s lineups either. And it was never suggested that a team could not win a world championship (w.c.) without stability in its rotation (e.g. 1977-78 Yankees), or that such stability ensured one. Simply this: the most successful franchises since 1969 have had stability in their rotations and in their most successful period(s).

      The team has 2 A.L. Championships and 1 w.c. because Cashman has had $200 million to spend on payrolls, not because he is a G.M. that compares with any of the G.M.s of the most successful franchises since 1969 – or others. He signed Igawa ($46 mil.), Pavano ($39.95 mil.), Clemens ($28 mil.), Sabathia ($161 mil.), Burnett ($82.5 mil.), etc. out of necessity – because he has not been able to maintain a stable rotation.

      A G.M. such as any of the G.M.s of the most successful franchises since 1969, given $200 mil. payroll budgets, would certainly have had at least as much strength in their rotations and more stability for the period; and almost certainly better, and perhaps much better, results with such stability.

    21. Ricketson
      December 1st, 2012 | 10:40 pm

      Raf wrote:

      Right, and the system had Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Kartsens, Clippard, Wright, Olendorf, DeSalvo, Horne, etc, etc, etc…
      Of course, there were times when Wickman, Hitchcock, Militello, Martel, Rivera and Taylor (Brien, not Wade), among others, were in the system.
      When the Yanks bottomed out, they gave Wade Taylor, Jeff Johnson, and Scott Kamienecki (sp?) a shot, with Alan Mills in the pen.

      I’m not certain of what you’re getting at, here… that N.Y. at times had an overabundance of talented young pitching? I don’t believe N.Y. has a very good record of developing talented young pitching in the last 15 yrs. under Cashman. In fairness to Cashman, the organization did not quite have such a record before him either with the exception of some pitchers such as Pettitte, Rivera, and a few others, that I can recall. I don’t think the farm system has been what it could have been in the last 15 yrs. And from what I know of Moore, I would be pleased to have him as G.M. in N.Y. if I were a fan of the team.

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