Yankees 2013 Opening Day Roster
Posted by Steve L. on December 17th, 2012 · Comments (72)
Right now, it looks like this:
| Player | Age | Pos |
| Mark Teixeira | 33 | 1B |
| Robinson Cano | 30 | 2B |
| Derek Jeter | 39 | SS |
| Kevin Youkilis | 34 | 3B |
| Chris Stewart | 31 | C |
| Curtis Granderson | 32 | CF |
| Brett Gardner | 29 | LF |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 39 | RF |
| Mariano Rivera | 43 | RP |
| David Aardsma | 31 | RP |
| Boone Logan | 28 | RP |
| Joba Chamberlain | 27 | RP |
| David Robertson | 28 | RP |
| Clay Rapada | 32 | RP |
| Cody Eppley | 27 | RP |
| David Phelps | 26 | RP |
| CC Sabathia | 32 | SP |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 38 | SP |
| Andy Pettitte | 41 | SP |
| Phil Hughes | 27 | SP |
| Ivan Nova | 26 | SP |
| Eduardo Nunez | 26 | BENCH |
| Melky Mesa | 26 | BENCH |
| Jayson Nix | 30 | BENCH |
| Francisco Cervelli | 27 | BENCH |
If you’re a Yankees fan, how do you feel about that?
That’s a lot of numbers in the 30s.
One-fifth of the roster is closer to 40 than 30.
I could see this starting line-up having issues with LHP. They really need a RH power bat at DH or the OF.
If Gardner gets hurt again, and Youkilis doesn’t hit, and Granderson bats like he did last year in the 2nd half, then they are really in trouble.
The worst roster in a long time. The team should take this opportunity to unload contacts and restock the farm and retool completely for 2015 and beyond. What are they doing?
Also, on the SP side, you have CC coming off surgery, Pettitte and Kuorda are good but old with a lot of mileage, and Hughes and Nova are still nothing more than back of the rotation guys.
If either Pettitte or Kuroda have a big injury this year – which is possible given their age – and CC is not the CC of old after his surgery, then this rotation caves in a like the house of cards that it is…
Ricketson wrote:
Cashman and his boys have painted themselves into this corner. What contracts could they possible unload without eating a major amount of the money and/or paying the player some money to accept a trade?
CC, Tex, A-Rod aren’t going anywhere.
At best, they could have moved Granderson when he was hot. Or, they could move Cano now. But, given Granderson’s 2012 and the fact that Cano will walk after 2013, you’re not going to get much in return now.
Average age of 25-man roster is 31.3.
Average age of 5-man rotation is 32.8.
Average age of bullpen is 30.3.
It may be an older team than the Royals but I don’t know that a 25-man roster with an average age of 31 is “old.”
Separately, we all know that the team that breaks camp at the end of March isn’t the same team that takes the field in October so this team could get younger as the season goes on (with Romine replacing Stewart, for example).
Steve L. wrote:
The Indians traded one year of Choo (3.1 bWAR in 2012) and some relievers for six years of control on Trevor Bauer and three years of control on Drew Stubbs. Choo earned $4.9M last year and the Indians are paying the Reds $3.5M of his arbitration raise (probably pushing him up to $7-8M in 2013).
The Yankees have one year of control left on Granderson (2.7 bWAR in 2012) and owe him $15M. No reason why they can’t get a controlled asset in return for Granderson if they wanted to, especially if they tossed $3M into the deal. His “bad” 2012 was still worth $13.5M on the open market and he earned $10M in salary which means he was actually worth a surplus value of $3.5M to the Yankees.
Steve L. wrote:
Agreed. I can understand 1 last year at a postseason run before 2014, and then conceding 2014 and trading Teixeira or Sabathia and others before retooling for 2015 – the team can have 1 rebuilding year in the last 20… but some of the contracts such as Cano and Granderson do not appear to line up with this strategy – unless Granderson is dealt this offseason and Cano is to be re-signed?
I’d love to see the Yanks break camp with Joba as the fifth starter, or at least swingman. If they don’t he’ll sign elsewhere next year and he’ll be turned or at least tried as a starter. And an egg could explode all over Cash……Just thought I’d stir the pot
Steve L. wrote:
And Ibanez has not been signed yet.
@ Ricketson:
“This strategy” was not known in 2008 when the Yankees signed Cano to a four-year contract or in 2010 when the team traded for Granderson. You’re asking the team to have known as much as five seasons in advance of the incentives and ramifications of the new collective bargaining agreement?
Not that worried – it’s still December, and unless someone gets hurt carving a goose next week, they’re looking okay for their age. I’m still hoping Grandy gets moved, and possibly Cano as well. There’s nothing we can do about the contracts for Tex, CC and Alex. Other than those three, there’s a lot of flexibility, which is a good thing.
@ KPOcala:
Chamberlain is not a starter and will never be one for the Yankees.
To the extent another team signs him and tries him in that role, that’s not for the Yankees to worry about. After elbow ligament replacement, broken ankle and not having pitched as a starter since 2009, I tend to doubt that many teams still view him as a potential starter (especially given the fact that he’s still never developed a credible third pitch and can’t locate his breaking pitch for strikes).
The Yankees played a role in Chamberlain’s failed development as a starting pitcher but that ship has sailed at this point. If Chamberlain actually wishes to get back to starting, he’ll have to do a lot of work to earn that opportunity.
Steve L. wrote:
I think the smart thing to do as of Dec. 17, 2012 is to write off 2014 and take the opportunity to build a strong foundation for 2015 and beyond through the 2015 free agent market and a replenished farm system… But I don’t think the team will do that.
Steve L. wrote:
Why would the Yankees want to trade Sabathia anyway? He’s been outstanding for the ballclub.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late – esp when he has a contract like CC’s.
Ricketson wrote:
It’s absurd to write off 2014 before 2013 has even been played. Let 2013 play out before you start waving the white flag on 2014.
Steve L. wrote:
A year too early?! Trading him now would be to trade him several years too early.
@ MJ Recanati:
Perhaps not – given his age, usage to date, lack of conditioning and recent injury requiring surgery.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Dunno. When you look at Granderson’s OBA last year and strikeout totals…a lot of GM’s would not touch that. Basically, he’s Dave Kingman with a better glove now. It’s not all that attractive. Choo gets on base, plays great defense, and is still a lot cheaper in 2013.
Steve L. wrote:
CC is fine. I know it’s your job to look at every situation and see only the potential risks but odds are that CC will be productive for another few seasons, at least.
Steve L. wrote:
The strikeouts are irrelevant and mainly offend fans who don’t understand that outs are more or less all the same. OBP is a more valid point and, even still, plenty of GM’s would trade for an outfielder that can play CF and hit a ton, especially since he could even hit enough to justify a corner outfield position.
Steve L. wrote:
Choo gets on base, plays great defense in RF and is cheaper. The Reds are planning on using him in CF where his lack of range may be a factor which is another reason why Granderson is attractive: he is an actual CF, something most teams don’t often have the chance to acquire. As for Choo’s cost relative to Granderson’s, the Indians had to kick money in AND trade off two bullpen arms. The Yankees could easily just send money (between $3-5M) and get value in return.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Its not waving a white flag at all – its looking at the luxury tax threshold for 2014 as an opportunity to rebuild and deal contracts that were signed prior to the collective bargaining agreement with the possibility of having more competitive teams in 2015 and beyond given the present roster and market as of Dec., 2012.
Ricketson wrote:
Writing off a season that is two years away is clearly waving a white flag. You don’t “write off” a season that far in advance.
Steve L. wrote:
Agreed.
Steve L. wrote:
Choo’s on first?
The pitching staff is OK. Should be solid again, assuming Mariano is back near where he was. The defense will be the same or better overall, A-Rod is slightly better than Youkillis, Stewart is good defensively, but Martin played more, so more Cervelli means a defensive minus there. Jeter’s broken ankle might make a bad situation catastrophic. But the difference between Gardner and Jones/Ibanez is enormous, and Suzuki is a significant improvement over Swisher.
How much is the offense down from last year? Hard to say. The difference between Martin and Stewart/Cervelli is significant, even with Martin hitting in the 210′s last year. Jeter absolutely cannot be expected to have a significant dropoff as well. Overall, Suzuki is a downgrade from Swisher, unless the last couple of weeks in 2012 is the Suzuki the Yanks get in 2013.
On the other hand, Granderson will likely bounce back some, and Cano, despite the superficial HR/BAVG numbers, had a bad year, too. Both will likely improve. Tex probably won’t, because he refuses to “change his game”. Gardner won’t hit nearly as many HRs, but will likely be near league average offensively, which will be an improvement over Ibanez/Jones. He won’t hit a half-dozen clutch HRs, but he’ll do his thing on the bases.
Overall, if I had to guess, I’d guess the team’s runs scored drops by about 30 or so, but the defense improves by nearly that much. That leaves it up to the pitching.
And if the Yanks sign or trade for a solid DH, then the offensive dropoff decreases to nil, and if the pitching holds, they could actually be slightly better than last season, even if the record won’t show it because of the improvement of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and possibly the Orioles and Rays as well.
Evan3457 wrote:
Meant to say Jeter should be expected to have a significant dropoff.
Evan3457 wrote:
I’ve wondered about this a lot. Is it because he won’t or because he can’t?
Evan3457 wrote:
Which is why I’m not that worried. The only time we missed the playoffs in 2008, we had a suspect rotation going into the season, but it was the offense that disappeared, not the pitching. I’m more concerned about the hitters – I agree that the team is as good or better defensively.
And I still think there’s a trade or two happening this winter, possibly a big one.
And I’m not sold on crowning the Jays yet, and definitely not the Red Sox. Reyes and Johnson are both big injury risks and Buherle is an innings eater. Red Sox added a bunch of middlins, who all have to gel and play well to change course from a last place finish.
Evan3457 wrote:
“Um,” why?
Two more cents….
Major injuries aside (the same caveat as on every team, just ask the Jays and Bautista)…
Our outfield defense may be the best in the 4+ decades I’ve spent watching the Yankees. We have a handful of baserunners that will go first to third on a regular basis. We could have ~80 steals between Gardy and Ichi; how long has it been since the Yankees had 2 guys put up that kind of pressure on the bases? I would like to see Granderson shoot for 20 steals). We’ll have more contact hitting and fewer strikeouts (and, admittedly fewer dingers) in the line up. Our 7 starters (and experience says look past the first 5 as it will take more than those first 5) including Pineda & Phelps, are on par with just about anyone in the AL. Our core starters are good enough in a playoff series. Our infield defense is good overall and very good in certain places. I’ll take Youk at the dish close and late over A-Rod. Our pen, and once and for all Joba belongs in the pen (he lacks the mindset, stuff and fitness to give 30+ starts) will be fine if Mo is ~ 90% of himself. I’d like to see a better every day catcher (especially on the catch and throw side) and Stewart as the back-up. I’d like to see a right handed DH/OF type, but not V. Wells. Even after A-Rod returns, I expect Youk will get most of the time at 3rd for quite some time. Two balky hips do not a sharp 3rd bagger make. Our bench can cover a lot of positions adequately.
On paper we aren’t beasts like LAAA of AAA, or Detroit, or maybe even the Jays, but we won’t make many stupid mistakes that give games away, we are overall an above average defensive team, we can run some and we can pitch some. All is not lost….Yet.
I get the idea of trying to patch things up for one last run with Mo, DJ and Andy. Their experience and leadership say it’s worth not throwing in the towel in Dec. By July? Maybe. Could blow up and players could get dealt. Now, 2014 might be the year to seek another hobby or spend more time with the family.
One prediction. Robbie stays a Yankee. Doesn’t get Hamilton/A-Rod type money. Warm and fuzzy lovefest… took less money to stay “home”… yada yada yada…. Finishes his career a Yankee lifer, gets his number retired and goes to Cooperstown. -OR- He leaves for a bit more money and regrets it.
@ MJ Recanati: Sorry, I don’t agree. Many pitchers have come from the bullpen at that age and became very successful pitchers. Hell, correct me if I’m wrong, but Guidry didn’t become a MLB starter until he was 27. Good point about the ankle, never know how that will play over time. And wasn’t the big deal about Joba was that he was a true four-pitch pitcher? Again, what have the Yankees to lose at this point by giving it a try? Back to the middle-end of the bullpen? And my argument is predicated on what has been disclosed to the public concerning his health. There has been nothing to my knowledge that from a medical point of view he couldn’t start……
One thing is almost for certain. Unless “everything” breaks right for the Yanks, as currently constructed, they are contenders only because of their pedigree. I saw espn’s David Schoenfield list the Yanks as, right now, the third best team in baseball. Thankfully I didn’t have a mouth full of steak. Not only is the notion silly, but now the Boys of Bristol are putting up “the Yankees are still a feared team” front. That’s one more reason to fear the coming season……..Espn’s cynicism.
Evan3457 wrote:
Evan3457 wrote:
Evan3457 wrote:
Are you quoting Cashman? The team lost Swisher, Martin, Ibanez, and Jeter’s offense should be expected to dropoff “significantly,” but if the team trades one of the few prospects it has, or signs a solid D.H. (e.g. Wells or Ibanez), the dropoff decreases to nil?
#15 wrote:
“I want a team that walks and mashes [and hits] home runs… we’re built the way we are for a reason. I’m not going to turn myself into the Bronx Bunters… [t]hat’s not our DNA. That’s not what makes us successful. And that’s certainly not what’s getting us into the postseason every year. This is my all or nothing big hairy monster team.”
Steve L. wrote:
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/21414911/ivan-nova-is-available-for-bar-mitzvahs
Subject to revisions, like the 2009 series of opening day rosters
http://waswatching.com/2008/11/07/the-2009-opening-day-roster-as-it-stands-now/
@ Raf:
And subject to a $189 million payroll, unlike the 2009 payroll of $207.2 million.
@ McMillan:
You forgot to adjust for inflation.
Still doesn’t negate the point that the roster in December is likely to change by the time the team breaks camp in march. 8)
http://waswatching.com/2009/03/22/the-remaing-spots-on-yanks-09-opening-day-roster/#comments
http://waswatching.com/2009/01/27/2009-opening-day-roster-as-it-stands-now-update-4/
Raf wrote:
Thanks: $222.35 mil.Raf wrote:
That’s right: Vernon Wells should be on the team by March. And the roster as a whole will be older than it is today by four months.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
~ Chicken Little
MJ Recanati wrote:
Given the comments he made last year, it seems that he won’t.
McMillan wrote:
Because he’s 38, going on 39, is coming off a serious injury, and he just had his best season in 3 years.
Oh, and he’s 38 going on 39.
McMillan wrote:
Either you’re trolling, or you’re denser than lead.
The first Suzuki/Swisher comment is defensively, and Suzuki is a significant upgrade on Swisher in that area. The 2nd one is offensively, and there, Suzuki is a dropoff from Swisher, overall.
I covered the dropoff from Martin to Stewart/Cervelli. It’s a significant drop, but shouldn’t amount to more than 20 runs, offensively, compared to what Martin contributed last season. Same amount, or a little bit more, for Swisher/Suzuki, offensively. They may lose Ibanez, but if he re-signs with them, they get him back, and the theoretical dropoff is small. If they sign or trade for someone better, there’s no loss at all, but a gain, depending on who they acquire. Jeter likely about 15-20 runs from last year in terms of overall production. Total runs lost: about 60.
But Cano can expect to be 10-15 runs better (possibly more if you believe in the “walk year” effect, maybe less if he presses to get the new deal), and if Granderson recovers have of what he lost last year
, that’s another 10-15 runs back. As an overall offensive player, Gardner is about even with Ibanez, but he’s far superior to Jones’ output last season…call that a clawback of a further 5-10 runs. Total runs gained back: about 30.
Net loss of runs on the offensive side, assuming they don’t acquire a better catcher in-season, and assuming Youkillis doesn’t outperform himself or A-Rod from last year, and assuming Tex doesn’t enter the wayback machine and travel back in time to 2008-2009: about 30.
So, no, I ain’t quoting Cashman. Just doing a little “back of the envelope” quick calculations on what can reasonably be expected from the offense, based on the players I think will get the bulk of the at-bats.
McMillan wrote:
OK, which side of the argument do you want?
Do you want to castigate Cashman for building a team of sluggers who K too much and choke in the playoffs, or do you want to castigate him for trying to trade some HR for a little better contact and a lot better team speed.
Sorry, you don’t get to have both of those arguments. Cashman has to deal with what is. If he thinks the market for Swisher is too high, he lets him go. Just as he did with Martin.
Other forcers are at work: namely the $189 million self-imposed team payroll cap. That forces choices and compromises.
McMillan wrote:
I don’t think Wells will be on the roster.
I could be wrong.
Raf wrote:
Or perhaps he tried for awhile and couldn’t do it, and time was wasting and games were being lost, so he gave up, and to cover his ego, declared he wouldn’t, rather than he couldn’t.
I’m in my mid-50s. They all look like kids to me.
@ Scout:
Go to a minor league game below AA. They will all look like babies. At the least, they do when I go…
…I’m now 50.
Evan3457 wrote:
And last year he was 37 going on 38. So his numbers can improve from 37 to 38, but “should” drop off “significantly” from 38 to 39. “Okey dokey.”
Evan3457 wrote:
Its “his” team.
Evan3457 wrote:
It was Cashman that said, “[this is] not our DNA [and] not what makes us successful [and] certainly not what’s getting us into the postseason every year.”
Evan3457 wrote:
“The two are not mutually exclusive.”
Evan3457 wrote:
Cashman’s responsible for what is; how many teams “have to deal” with reducing a payroll by 15% to $189 mil. in 2 years?
Evan3457 wrote:
It was Cashman himself that said, “The market for Russell was aggressive… and our focus [was on] our pitching… We never made an offer [to Russell] … We never got to that point.”
Evan3457 wrote:
I guess I’m denser than lead. But I wonder what the response would have been if I or someone else had written 10 paragraphs with that many “abouts,” “assumings,” “buts,” “can expects,” “coulds,” “ifs,” “likelys,” “maybes,” “mays,” “mights,” “probablys,” “shoulds,” and “theoreticals” and came to a less-than-favorable appraisal of the 2013 Opening Day Roster?
McMillan wrote:
Why don’t you take a look at baseball history and report back to me on the number of players who’ve had outstanding years at both age 37-8 and 38-9.
The find the number of regular shortstops who’ve done it.
Evan3457 wrote:
If he thinks the market for Swisher is too high, he lets him go. Just as he did with Martin.
It was Cashman himself that said, “The market for Russell was aggressive…
Which is, reading between the lines, what I said.
And if the price had been what they wanted to pay, the offer would’ve been made, focus on pitching or not.
Evan3457 wrote:
There’s no basis or reason to believe Jeter’s production “should” drop off “significantly” (I think you meant “substantially”) in 2013. The numbers will probably drop off – the home run totals in particular, but overall – not substantially.
McMillan wrote:
http://thesaurus.com/browse/significantly?s=t
McMillan wrote:
Yes, there is a basis, and I’ve already stated it.
Hughes will have his break-out year, in ’13. One year further removed from what he said has been a lasting hamstring injury. One that would keep him from ‘getting on top of his curve-ball. Watch and see……
Evan3457 wrote:
I’ve looked at baseball history and, not surprisingly, there is nothing to suggest the production of a 39 yr. old Jeter “should” drop off “significantly” from a 38 yr. old Jeter, just that a decrease in production can be expected.
McMillan wrote:
With Collins, Molitor, Wagner, Yastrzemski, and even Speaker within reach of last year’s hit total, and given the type of player and hitter Jeter is, I would be little more surprised with less than 190 hits than more in 2013; he’s been a “younger” guy since collecting his 3000th hit in 2011 (might be hitting .325 since then). I’ll put him down for 190 – 200 in 2013 – I don’t think that’s unrealistic for him. After that, maybe 1 more year before his numbers begin to decline more significantly.
Evan3457 wrote:
“General manager Brian Cashman said Thursday the free-agent and trade pools ‘are not deep’ when it comes to acquiring a righty-hitting outfielder… the Yankees could turn to Eduardo Nunez to be the DH.”
“I know a lot of people have told me they think home runs are bad,” Cashman said. “I’m not one of them. Well, those people are going to get a chance to see what it looks like. I do believe power is big in an offense and we lost a lot of home runs, but our pitching is stronger.”
Ricketson wrote:
I can’t imagine people calling home runs “bad” however I could see people not liking the all-or-nothing approach. Given that the Yankees still have essentially the same line-up, we now have an all-or-nothing approach with less power. And how, exactly, did our pitching get stronger? We have the exact same starters, albeit each a year older, and lost a vital bullpen arm in Soriano.
LMJ229 wrote:
This is a very disturbing quote to me. It sounds like Cashman is setting himself up with a ready made excuse should the Yankees fail.
@ LMJ229:
It’s terms of being a teflon GM, he’s the king at it.
Ever notice all the times he cites Yankees makes in the past? Whether it’s a failed import from Japan or a bad trade or a busted Free Agent, it’s always “we” (from Cashman) when he talks about past mistakes (and never “I”).
Steve L. wrote:
Well I think “we” would be him and the his scouting dept. You think the scouting dept deserves no blame?
McMillan wrote:
That’s funny. Because I did a quick and dirty study of 38 and 39 year olds, and this is what I found…
First, I had BRef list all players who met 3 criteria
1. Age 38
2. Enough PA to qualify for a batting title
3. OPS 100 or greater.
There were 57 such players. I then did a weighted average of their OPS.
At age 38, the players had a weighted average OPS of 129. At age 39, the same players (minus Fred Clarke, who didn’t play at age 39, but got 12 PA over the next 3 seasons, Paul O’Neill, who retired at age 38, and Jeter himself, who hasn’t played at age 39 yet) had an average OPS of 118.
But that’s not all, the fifty-four age 39 players had only 82% of the plate appearances of the of the previous year.
Now, I don’t know how you measure these things but an 8% drop in performance (and really, a 38% drop in batting performance above average) combined with an 18% drop in plate appearances (and this is weighted against the argument I’m making, because the players whose performance fell off a cliff, as a group, would see their playing time decrease far more than the players performing well) is a significant drop in production, wouldn’t you say?
LMJ229 wrote:
It didn’t; that’s why I included that part of the quote…
Evan3457 wrote:
No. I disagree with your analysis, and I think your contention that Jeter’s offensive production should drop off significantly in 2013 because he himself is one year older is “horsespit;” and in approximately 10 months the numbers for the season will confirm this.
McMillan wrote:
OK, so you disagree, and it’s just your opinion.
That’s fine.