• A-Rod Not Out Of The Woods Yet

    Posted by on January 17th, 2013 · Comments (10)

    Via Sweeny Murti

    If A-Rod comes back on schedule after the All-Star break — let’s assume July 19, first game of the second half — then he will have played only 33 games in the previous 12 months (remember the broken hand that knocked him out most of the second half last season).

    Only 33 games in 12 months. Only 130 Major League at-bats (and four home runs) in 12 months. At age 37. No matter how well the doctors repaired A-Rod’s hip, will he be able to regain something resembling his old self after missing so much game time at that age?

    Off the top of my head the only player I could recall in recent history that went through something comparable was Dave Winfield, who actually missed the entire season in 1989 — at age 37 — due to a back injury. How did Winfield respond?

    He capped his Hall of Fame career with four impressive seasons from 1990-1993, averaging 145 games per year, .273 BA, .342 OBP, and .465 SLG (96 home runs total in four years). It adds up to an OPS of .808 over four seasons from ages 38-41. That’s what you’d call a successful comeback.

    The Yankees will have A-Rod under contract for four and a half more seasons upon his projected return this July. A Winfield-like comeback would be a lofty goal. The complexity of this second hip surgery in four years makes it hard to believe it’s possible, especially when you consider that his production has dipped every year since 2007 already.

    If he gets back on the field as projected this summer, then at least on one level the Yankees can say A-Rod’s surgery was “successful.” But the return on the investment is still a long way from being determined. And the odds aren’t in his favor.

    Then again, for all we know, Winfield could have been juicing in the early ’90’s? There were no tests back then…

    See Brian Downing and Candy Maldonado, who were Winny’s teammates at that time.

    A-Rod? I’ve said this before, and, I will say it again. He’s the new Juan Gonzalez. Even if he comes back from the hip surgery, it will only be a matter of time before something else on him breaks and he’s back on the disabled list. He’s a china doll at this point. Unless the Yankees ensconce him in bubble wrap and nurse him through the rest of his career as a D.H., you cannot count on him to play in more than 120 games in a season, ever, again.

    Comments on A-Rod Not Out Of The Woods Yet

    1. Garcia
      January 17th, 2013 | 10:50 am

      I don’t know, ARod is not even on my radar any longer. If he comes back and does something even remotely useful then great. At this point I have the attitude of: I’ve just got to deal till the end of his contract.

      I no longer have any opinion of the guy because he’s no longer relevant. There’s nothing to fight about anymore – whether he’s great, or the press picks on him too much, or that he’s shirtless in central park, or he’s dating another she-male, or he should be playing SS, or if he’s going to carry us for the month of June, July, etc. He’s just a lamp at this point.

      If he’s on and providing light. Awesome. Other than that, what’s to worry about? He’s done. You or I can get up there and bat for him at this point. Nobody will know the difference.

    2. 77yankees
      January 17th, 2013 | 1:38 pm

      Look on the bright side, now Alex has 6 months to try to get the phone number of Mante Te’o’s girlfriend.

    3. January 17th, 2013 | 8:24 pm

      I wouldn’t bring the name of Winfield into this discussion at all. Winfield was super durable prior to going down in 1989, AROD on the other hand hasn’t seen 140 games played in a dog’s age.

      Great post Garcia!

    4. KPOcala
      January 18th, 2013 | 12:00 am

      Bravo for the Brian Downing reference! One of the pioneers of the juice!

    5. Evan3457
      January 18th, 2013 | 1:44 am

      One of the reasons why A-Rod’s production dropped from last year to this year was the injury to the hip. When he got off the DL from the broken hand (which was NOT steroid related, and happens to multiple players every season…a broken bone after being HBP, I mean), he hit well for a week…then fell off the cliff, slugging .294 for the rest of the season. Up until Sept 9th, his triple rate stats were virtually a carbon copy of 2011’s.

    6. #15
      January 18th, 2013 | 8:14 am

      @ Garcia:
      He shoots…. He scores!

      @ Evan3457:
      He gets a pass on the hand. That aside, he’s brittle and, quite frankly, not very good.

    7. Scout
      January 18th, 2013 | 8:20 am

      We can ignore A-Rod the player; we can’t ignore A-Rod the contract. Not when Hal has imposed the $189 million cap. With A-Rod on the books, that’s really $160 million.

    8. January 18th, 2013 | 10:25 am

      I saw a report in my local paper that said, in the surgery, they determined that A-Rod had “minimal damage.” If true, then, is it really an excuse for his performance issues?

    9. Garcia
      January 18th, 2013 | 10:42 am

      @ Steve L.:
      Minimal damage + not being very good = Average to below average production


      A lot of damage + not being very good = Horace Clarke production

      If we are getting the former, think how much worse it can possibly be. You have to spin this as positively as possible.

    10. Evan3457
      January 18th, 2013 | 1:06 pm

      Steve L. wrote:

      I saw a report in my local paper that said, in the surgery, they determined that A-Rod had “minimal damage.” If true, then, is it really an excuse for his performance issues?


      A minimal injury in the right spot can drop performance to…zero.

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