Bad News For Yankees Fans
Rany Jazayerli sums up the current state and future of the Yankees and does it perfectly -
For years, the Yankees have acted as if the luxury tax was just the cost of doing business. But George Steinbrenner died in 2010, and his maniacal focus on winning seems to have gone with him. His sons, Hank and Hal, like winning just fine, but they would prefer to win and make piles of money. So, although they’ve been willing to maintain the team’s payroll well above the current luxury-tax threshold of $178 million, they haven’t increased payroll in eight years.
The Steinbrenners’ unwillingness to raise payroll has made it more difficult for the Yankees to bring in fresh veterans to replace the worn-out ones. As a result, the team has stuck with its old guys even as they turned into really old guys — last year, the offense averaged 32.7 years old, the oldest in franchise history and the third-oldest in baseball history.
The newest CBA, agreed to after the 2011 season, included two key changes [PDF] to the luxury tax. The first is that the highest tax rate (which, of course, applies to the Yankees) was increased from 40 to 50 percent. The second change is that, should a team avoid the luxury tax even once, its tax rate will drop back to the lowest level (17.5 percent) the next time it exceeds the threshold, and rise incrementally from there.
In other words, if the Yankees can get below the tax threshold just once, they won’t just save millions of dollars that year, they’ll also save millions for the three subsequent years even if they jack up their payroll again.
The Yankees aren’t shy in disclosing that this is their strategy — they’ve been talking about it publicly for more than a year. The threshold increases to $189 million in 2014, and the franchise plans to get its payroll below that mark next year. Which would be its lowest payroll in a decade.
It would be almost impossible to drop $30 million worth of salaries in one offseason, particularly with so many long-term contracts (which tend to escalate over time) on the books. To get payroll under control for 2014, the cost-cutting had to start this year. A franchise that had essentially never lost a free agent it wanted chose to let three of them get away this winter.
The Yankees don’t have anyone better because of the deterioration of their other great weapon: In the 18 years since the Core Four debuted, the Yankees haven’t developed anyone to replace them, with one exception. Robinson Cano came up in 2005, and to the surprise of just about everyone, he developed into the best second baseman in baseball. But aside from Cano … bubkes.
A look at the team’s top prospect as ranked by Baseball America every year is instructive. After Jeter topped the list in 1994, their top prospects include Ruben Rivera (three times),4 Eric Milton, Nick Johnson (three times), Drew Henson, Jose Contreras, Dioner Navarro, Eric Duncan, Phil Hughes (twice), Joba Chamberlain, Austin Jackson, and Jesus Montero (three times). Hughes is the only player on that list who was neither a bust nor traded for established veterans early in his career.
And at some point, the players who debuted in the majors the year ESPN launched its website are going to decline. Granted, aside from the retired Posada they haven’t yet, which is insane. But Derek Jeter turns 39 in June. Andy Pettitte will be 41, and he already retired once. Mariano Rivera is 43 and coming off knee surgery.
For the first time in 20 years, the Yankees are not a good team, and that won’t cut it in an AL East that figures to be as competitive as ever. The Red Sox have their own issues but still possess the talent to be dangerous. The Rays have reloaded their offense and feature a freakishly good 1-2-3 in their rotation. The Blue Jays are probably the most improved team in the majors, and the Orioles — well, I suppose it’s possible they’ll go 29-9 in one-run games again.5
If everything goes right, the Yankees can win 90 games again and contend for an AL East title. But for the first time since before the strike, the Yankees need everything to go right. And it never does. Things are already going wrong, with a third of the projected lineup on the DL. They don’t have the depth to replace Granderson and Teixeira; other players will get hurt, and they won’t have the depth to replace them. Players will underperform, and they don’t have anyone in the minors who can step up. (The Yankees have a pretty good farm system, but their top five prospects — Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, and Jose Campos — have combined for two games in Double-A.)
So long as the Yankees stick to their guns and aim to get their payroll under the threshold next year, they won’t be able to purchase help from outside the organization. The team’s streak of 87 or more wins is in mortal danger, and so is its streak of 20 winning seasons in a row. If the old guys show their age all at once and another key player goes down — particularly Sabathia — they could collapse like last year’s Red Sox.
And 2014 will be worse. The Yankees only have four players under contract for next year, but they owe those players — Rodriguez, Sabathia, Teixeira, and Ichiro — more than $78 million. Cano will be a free agent, and with the Dodgers trying their best to out-Yankee the Yankees, it’s no guarantee he’ll re-sign in the Bronx.
Cano is just the tip of the iceberg. Other free agents next winter include Granderson, Kuroda, Youkilis, Pettitte, Hughes, Hafner, Joba Chamberlain, and Boone Logan. (Jeter has a player option.) As much as 40 percent of this year’s roster will be available to the highest bidder next winter, just as the Yankees will be cutting payroll. The news that Rivera plans to retire at the end of this season is a further blow to the Yankees’ chances. Rivera is not only the best reliever in major league history, he might be the most consistent — since moving to the bullpen in 1996, he has never had an ERA higher than 3.15. For the last 15 years, the Yankees haven’t had to worry about the ninth inning. Next year, they will.
Assembling a complete roster with no immediate help from the minor leagues and precious few pre-arbitration major leaguers will be an immense challenge. It’s no wonder that GM Brian Cashman has been skydiving recently — he probably wants to get intimately familiar with the sensation of free-falling. But as he found out, falling isn’t the hard part; landing is.
For anyone who has watched baseball over the last two decades, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the Yankees as a toothless franchise. But when you build around old, expensive players, the reckoning coming up in your side mirror is — like the dinosaur in Jurassic Park — closer than it appears. (Just ask the Phillies.) So it’s time to proclaim the truth that everyone has danced around so far this year:
The Evil Emperor has no clothes. Even the Yankees are capable of down cycles. This looks like the start of one.
I would love for someone in the media to present all this to Brian Cashman and/or someone else high in the Yankees front office and ask them to respond to all these points made…but, it will never happen.
Steve L. wrote:
What sort of response do you expect? The owners have told the front office that the goal is to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold because of the very clear incentive such a payroll reduction would represent.
You’d be a great member of the House of Representatives, Steve; always calling for hearings in order to discuss the obvious and the self-evident.
Gotta love the media.
This plan has been in place for a year – yet the media is crying about the Yanks actually sticking to a PLAN. George, God Rest his Soul, is gone – The Yankees have new owners and they aren’t George.
People (especially the media) seem to forget George and his spend, spend, spend mentality didn’t work in the 80s. The team turned around while George was suspended!
Since when is saving millions and millions of dollars for YEARS a bad plan? Resetting the Luxury Tax is a great plan. 50% is outrageous especially since the teams that get the money don’t have a MINIMUM payroll requirement.
Cashman and the Yanks have to stop overpaying the OLD guys for what they did in their youth and get some young players. They have to learn for A-Roids contract and be smart with the money they spend.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Either some sort of explanation on how everything Rany stated was not true, or, a mea culpa accepting blame for the situation developing the way it has now…
Steve L. wrote:
That’s absurd. No apology is necessary. Now I know you should run for the 4th Congressional district!
MJ Recanati wrote:
That’s the problem with today’s Yankees – no accountability in the front office.
Steve L. wrote:
Accountability to you? You’re a little sensitive if you think that 17 straight winning seasons requires an apology to anyone.
Brian Cashman serves at the pleasure of his employers. Until his employers feel a change is necessary, that’s all there is to it. The accountability Cashman must feel begins and ends with his employers.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Agreed. And, as much as I have distain for Cashman’s inabilities as a GM, I have just as much for the team ownership for turning a blind eye on his flaws.
Steve L. wrote:
Except you’re assuming that you’re correct with respect to Cashman’s flaws.
He’s obviously flawed, as all GM’s are. But you can’t assume that your analysis of Cashman’s flaws is the correct and absolute one.
MJ Recanati wrote:
It’s not my analysis. Cashman’s ledger is full of no question blunders in every facet of talent evaluation.
Steve L. wrote:
Says you.
Even still, the same could be said of each and every current, former, and future GM.
MJ Recanati wrote:
True. But, they are paid a fraction of what Cashman pulls.
I have a quibble.
“The Rays have a freakishly good 1-2-3 in their rotation.”
And who are those three? I count Price, Matt Moore (if he keeps up his terrific 2nd half of last year, which he has the stuff to do), and…who?
Hellickson? I wouldn’t be too sure about that one.
This year is obviously the turning point for the Yankees. I still think the Yanks can win the East this year. They have very good starting pitching and a good bullpen, assuming Mariano is Mariano. Offensively, they have issues especially now with Granderson and Texiera out for a quarter of the year. But their line-up with Granderson and Texiera is a pretty good line-up if you put it on paper. And if A-Rod comes back it will get better.
Now, next year is a whole different story. Next year will be painful. I’m hoping (and praying) that Pineda can establish himself as a solid starter. Our rotation next year could include CC, Pineda, Phelps, and Nova. Mariano will be gone so we’ll need a closer. And we will have numerous holes to fill elsewhere. I think the Yankees will resign Cano. We just have to hope that guys like Pineda, Phelps, Nova, Montgomery, and Romine can step up. But with the team’s salary restrictions and their lack of player development I don’t feel very optimistic.
Steve L. wrote:
Moving goalposts. Well done.
The thing that bothers me most is the way management has handled the situation and the futility of our efforts to develop players. I didn’t really like the Pineda trade but I agreed with the approach. I liked the idea of looking forward, trying to be proactive. But then the Yankees did an about-face and decided to go with older players on one-year contracts. Don’t get me wrong, I love Petitte and Kuroda and Ichiro and Ibanez but after you beat that horse enough eventually its gonna drop dead. So now in 2014 it all blows up. It’s like there is no plan to replace aging players. Or if there is a plan its just not working.
LMJ229 wrote:
The plan may possibly include taking a beating in 2014 to get the luxury tax down, and then reloading in the off-season of 2014-15 and 2015-16, and so on.
Evan3457 wrote:
We obviously have no way of knowing just how cynically greedy Hal Steinbrenner is but, I agree, it’s possible that the Yankees aggressively pursue free agents in 2015 once their luxury tax rate has been reset.
Also, a soft 2014 season would help with the the bonus pool allocation in the draft. They might be able to draft a much better group of players with the benefit of an extra $4-5M.
I was wondering today: how different would this team look if George were still in his prime? No doubt we’d have Josh Hamilton. I wonder who else? And if George were alive I doubt that we’d be worrying about a salary cap next year.
Evan3457 wrote:
MJ Recanati wrote:
Well, I would be willing to take those scenarios. It would be nice to see some of our own players develop in 2014 as well.
MJ Recanati wrote:
I’m afraid the declining attendance may play into his greed as well.
Now I get it.
If the Yankees spend like drunken sailors and win, then Cashman is unaccountable and a poor GM because Paris Hilton can do that and field a winning team.
If the Yankees actually have a plan and stick to it, to reduce payroll, develop younger talent and still field a winning team, then Cashman is unaccountable and a poor GM because there’s no prospects ready yet to step in and take major league roster spots.
And, Cashman is also unaccountable and a poor GM because he gets paid the most, so he’s supposed to win the World Series every year, which he has not done.
I appreciate the clarity this argument provides.
LMJ229 wrote:
And thank god George isn’t around because I don’t think Hamilton is a particularly good investment at 5Y/$125M.
Moreover, people act as if the “salary cap” — which is an imprecise term for it — is a bad thing. Don’t you want the Yankees to stop paying onerous luxury tax rates that not only increase the cost of doing business with free agents but also line the pockets of our competitors?
LMJ229 wrote:
How so? Wouldn’t declining attendance be a motivating factor in scaling back the perception that he’s putting less money into the on-field product?
Greg H. wrote:
LOL, you could say this was your “aha!” moment, where you now fully understand how some of the logical constructions work around here…
LMJ229 wrote:
The Yankees aren’t developing players? News to me, I see plenty of products of the Yankees’ farm system around the majors.
MJ Recanati wrote:
I suppose so, but when talking about the Yankees’ spending, no one ever looks at the percentage of their payroll in relation to revenue.
I wish to announce that I, too, will have a spending cap in 2014. When the Yankees become a .500 team, I will be unable to afford tickets to Yankee Stadium. I refuse to buy a sub-standard product; doing so would simply encourage management to continue on its present course.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Thank You! The angels are going to regret that contract almost as much as the one they gave Pujols.
I actually look forward to this year and next. This year we get to see if the George Burns-ian team can compete, and next year I believe we’ll see a number of our younger prospects (that many insist we don’t have) can compete as well, plus a few newcomers. Refreshing. The only thing I’m afraid of is the number if years Cano will get when the Yanks inevitably (for better or worse) re-sign him.
Steve L. wrote:
False. Cashman’s ledger has more no-question blunders in every facet of talent evaluation than previous G.M.s worth speaking of. When Mr. Steinbrenner passed away, an organizational structure was not in place to build a championship team, or to fulfill a “sacred obligation” of fielding “championship-caliber” teams each season and not outspending every franchise in M.L.B.. And where the franchise has gone from 2010 to 2013 demonstrates that. If the plan is to not make any changes in the front office and to reload for 2015 and beyond, let’s see how well it does with Cashman not starting off with a Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Rivera, etc. – he will have been “an autonomous” G.M. for 11 years by then, with 1 pennant and 1 world championship since 2005.
Ricketson wrote:
Conjecture. Plus, even if true, this incompetency has resulted in the best record of making the playoffs every year except 2008.
Ricketson wrote:
How is this even remotely the case? Boss passed away with his team as the reigning WS champs. The following 3 years, they made it to the playoffs each year, advancing to the ALCS twice. You contend that they are not championship-calibur because they failed to win the championship?
Greg H. wrote:
Pretty much. Tautology at its finest.
Greg H. wrote:
Conjecture is the formation an opinion about something on the basis of incomplete information. The information on “Cashman’s ledger” from 1998-2012 is complete. The information on “previous G.M.s worth speaking of” is complete. The best record of making the playoffs every year except 2008 is the result Mr. Steinbrenner’s approval of the highest payrolls in M.L.B. by tens-of-millions of dollars in each season, and despite this incompetency.
Greg H. wrote:
The Boss passed away with his team as the reigning World Series champions. Less than 3 years later, it is being written that “[F]or the first time in 20 years, the Yankees are not a good team.” I am contending that this statement is correct, and that they are not a championship-caliber team in 2013.
@ MJ Recanati:
Introductory-level courses in logic are available at many local community colleges at night, and an opportunity to re-take such courses for those that failed one the first time around; one’s never too old…
Ricketson wrote:
First correct statement you have made. If you wish to compare Cashman’s level of competency to other GM’s, I’m afraid you will need to illustrate that through outlining and rating all the moves of all GMs, which you have not done and cannot do – since most of this is subjective – therefore the information supporting your argument is incomplete.
Ricketson wrote:
Now we seem to be moving into an elite level of absurdity.
Now, you contend that when the Boss died, the organization was not in place to build a championship caliber team, citing the “evidence” that today “it is being written” that the Yankees are not a good team in 2013, in March, mind you.
So, if I follow this logic:
Boss dies after the team wins the World Series.
Team makes playoffs for three more consecutive years, adding to their record playoff appearances (except 2008) since 1995.
Prior to the 4th season after Boss’ death, which has not been played yet, several players are injured.
In the Media, It Is Written: The Yanks are not good this year.
Therefore: when the Boss died, the organization was not in place to build a championship caliber team.
Got it.
Greg H. wrote:
I have done so in numerous posts throughout the course of the last several months; sorry, honey.
Greg H. wrote:
You did not.
Ricketson wrote:
The Boss died in 2009.
At the time The Boss died, the organization had a G.M. capable of being blackmailed by Louise Neathway.
Therefore, the organization will not field a championship-caliber team in the future as the players on the 2009 team become older or their contracts are not renewed because ownership has not authorized the spending The Boss would have authorized or without the luxury tax threshold enacted.
Is that easier to understand? Have you mother look at it.
K-V-C wrote:
By spending; out comes the checkbook, Wade Boggs is signed to play 3b. Jimmy Key is signed for the rotation (missing out on Cone and Maddux). Spike Owen is signed to play short. Jim Abbott couldn’t come to a deal with the Angels, so he was traded to the Yanks for prospects. O’Neill was traded to the Yanks for Roberto Kelly, and they were STILL interested in adding Barry Bonds to the mix. This while Danny Tartabull was still there…
Ricketson:
First, I’m not your honey, so kindly save that type of commentary for another site.
Second: Kindly leave my mom out of the commentary as well. She passed away over 20 years ago and wasn’t much of a baseball fan.
Third: If you have any difficulty with the above, please reference the Community Standards section of this blog, just below the header. If you have difficulty with that, then this community is probably not the place for you.
Finally, thank you for clarifying your argument at long last by stating that the reason you feel that the organization was not in place to field a championship-caliber team was that at the time of the Boss’ death the GM was capable of being blackmailed by Louise Neathway. I’ll happily let it go at that.
Greg H. wrote:
MJ Recanati wrote:
Standards such as these? All are certainly free to not respond to a particular post of or viewpoint of someone else.
Greg H. wrote:
For the third time, that was not the “argument” that was presented.
http://www.amazon.com/Logic-For-Dummies-Mark-Zegarelli/dp/0471799416/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1362935906&sr=8-1&keywords=logic+dummies
???
@ Evan3457:
Exactly.
@ Evan3457:
Shouldn’t you be working on updated back-of-the-envelope calculations for wins and run production in 2013 with Teixeira’s injury?
http://deadspin.com/5845140/the-photos-of-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-that-broke-up-a-marriage
Greg H. wrote:
Ricketson wrote:
All of that work a few months ago for nothing…
@ McMillan:
“Exactly.”