Cashman: “Pitching Is Our Strength”
Via Ken Rosenthal -
The New York Yankees act like they’re in jail. They’re not.
They could sign free-agent right-hander Kyle Lohse and then trade either right-hander Ivan Nova or right-hander for the offense they so desperately need.
General manager Brian Cashman, however, wants no part of Lohse.
“I don’t think it would make any sense whatsoever,” Cashman said. “We have all of our pitching intact. Our problem is not our pitching. Pitching is our strength.”
The Yankees have six starters: Lefties CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte and righties Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Nova and Phelps. A seventh possibility, righty Michael Pineda, is recovering well from shoulder surgery, Cashman said.
“Pitching is our strength.”
Every time I hear this, albeit from Cashman or a Yankees fan, I want to scream.
I like David Phelps. He’s young and a fine pitcher for the back-end of your rotation.
Hiroki Kuroda is usually good for a quality 30 starts and 200 innings. But, he will be 38-years old this season and nearing the end of his career. So, there’s some risk there. Also, for what it’s worth – and I know many don’t care about this type of stuff – for most of his career he’s been a hard luck pitcher. When that happens, over and over, there’s usually a reason for it.
CC Sabathia has thrown 1,399 innings over the last 6 seasons – an average of 233 IP per season – and is coming off elbow surgery. And, while he’s slimmer this spring, he’s still not a well conditioned player – in terms of carrying too much body fat. Sooner or later, and more likely sooner, his pitching arm is going to cry out “Uncle!”
Andy Pettitte, who is one of my all-time favorite baseball players (ever!) will be 41-years old this June. The last time he had more than 21 starts in a major league season was four years ago. The last time he won more than 14 games in a season was six years ago. So, why should we expect him to make 30 starts and win 15+ games this season at his age?
Last season, Ivan Nova faced 748 major league batters and they had a collective .511 Slugging Percentage against him. Forget what he’s doing in Spring Training. You can never trust Spring Training stats. When the bell rings, he won’t be fooling anyone – he didn’t last year.
Phil Hughes should make 30 starts, win 15+ games, and pitch close to 200 innings this year. He’s done that two of the last three years. Plus, he’s pitching for his free agency – so, there’s a carrot on the stick for him this year. But, he’s not a staff leader. He’s more a middle-to-the-back-end starting pitcher at this point in his career.
Don’t even get me started about the Dominican John Blutarsky, Michael Pineda.
“Pitching is our strength.”
Tell me that in August and September. When I see it then, I will believe it. Right now, it’s just a promise and a wish from Brian Cashman.
I love how you say you can’t trust spring training stats, but I’ve seen you cite spring training stats a number of times the last few weeks. So which is it?
What would you say is the Yankees strength? I think this team is incredibly flawed, but I also think its strength is the pitching. It’s at least way more stable than all the other parts — hitting, defense, etc. So in that context, Cash is absolutely right.
Man, I’ve said this over and over again…I want Cashman gone, but for some reason when I read your analysis of him you somehow make me like him.
Garcia wrote:
At this point, nothing.
It’s not hitting. It’s not fielding. They even have some questions now in the pen.
It’s a 85-90 win team now. Probably closer to 85.
@ Steve L.:
So an 85 team win has no strengths? Maybe I need to know your definition of strength, let’s start there. Is being in the top of 5 of hitting/pitching in your respective league constitute a strength? I would say the Yanks pitching is (at least) top 5 in the AL, and to me that would be the definition of strength.
Hitting/fielding, definitely in the middle of the pack to the bottom.
Garcia wrote:
Who is your 1 thru 4 and your numbers 6 and 7?
Steve L. wrote:
I don’t eff’ing know!!! What difference does it make right now? It’s all speculation. And who said that the Yanks were the 5th team in that list? I think they’ll be 4, but I don’t really know who will be 1-3, 5-15.
I just know what I expect the Yanks pitching to be at, and I expect the yanks to be in the top 5. How that all translates to wins/losses? Who the hell knows! They are going to have issues scoring runs, I at least know that much.
@ Garcia:
FWIW, the Yankees ERA+ last year was 109 and that’s just a few ticks above league average. And, basically, this year, it’s the same crew, all older with more mileage, and they are minus Soriano. (But, I suspect that Mo will be fine as a replacement there.)
I would be shocked if the Yankees out-pitched Tampa and Toronto this year. Shoot, they may not out-pitch the Orioles. (BTW, the O’s ERA+ last year was also 109.)
Again, anyone who thinks the Yankees pitching is a rock that’s going to carry them through the season is working on wishful thinking, IMHO.
Steve L. wrote:
What does “he’s been a hard luck pitcher” mean?
Kuroda ERA/FIP/xFIP:
2008 – 3.73/3.59/3.89
2009 – 3.76/3.58/3.61
2010 – 3.39/3.26/3.43
2011 – 3.07/3.78/3.56
2012 – 3.32/3.86/3.67
Unless you mean something else by “hard luck pitcher”, I see someone that maintains ERA’s very close to his xFIP’s and hasn’t had bad luck with balls in play (career .282 BABIP). He misses enough bats (career 9.9 whiff rate with his 6.76 K/9) to get by and has solid command of the zone (3.22 K/BB).
Steve L. wrote:
Fun with math and selective endpoints. Pettitte didn’t pitch in 2011 and made 21 starts in 2010. He had a fluke injury last year on a batted ball that could’ve just as easily occured in his 22nd start as in his first. Moreover, since when are wins a good measure of value added by a pitcher? Cliff Lee won six games last year in 30 starts. Wins don’t mean squat.
As for Hughes/Nova, they’re back-end guys. That doesn’t count as part of the strength? Last time I checked, having league-average production from the back end of the rotation is an incredibly valuable thing; most teams don’t even get that.
Garcia wrote:
Actually, the fielding is likely improved significantly from last year, merely from the exchanges of Ibanez/Jones for Garnder, and Swisher for Suzuki.
The Yanks ranked 22nd in team fielding last year, according to one advanced defensive metric, at -12.5 runs. The two changes above should result in a net gain of about 30 to 40 defensive runs saved. Subtact 10-20 for Jeter’s ankle/Nunez, and another 5 runs for Tex missing the 1st 1/4 to 1/3 of the season, and the Yanks should be a net plus this year.
Steve L. wrote:
An ERA+ of 109 in 2012 was good for ninth best in baseball and tied for fifth best in the American League. A little context always helps.
MJ Recanati wrote:
The only team in the AL with a markedly better ERA+ was Tampa Bay at 120.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Wins and losses.
MJ Recanati wrote:
What’s your prediction for GS, IP and ERA from Pettitte this year?
@ Garcia:
@ Evan3457:
@ MJ Recanati:
Bottom line: Do you agree with Cashman that the Yankees strength this year is their pitching, and, why?
Steve L. wrote:
I agree with Cashman that pitching is our strength.
Steve L. wrote:
Looking at wins and losses is a terrible way to evaluate pitchers.
Steve L. wrote:
Where were they last year in ERA+ & runs allowed last year?
MJ Recanati wrote:
Then, let’s do this.
Let’s both put the URL for this post in our Outlook calendars for August 15th and then we can meet up here again, then, and see who was right.
Steve L. wrote:
I agree with Cashman that it’s our strength and our pitching will being in the top 5 of the AL. That’s how I define strength.
And I’d rather wait till the end of the season, what’s this arbitrary date you pulled out of your sinkhole?
Garcia wrote:
You can wait until season end. I believe, way before then, we will see this “strength” implode and turn into a black hole that sucks in the Yankees season.
Starting pitching is the strength, and the reason the team might win 87 games; Cashman himself is a weakness. If Kuroda had decided to accept more money elsewhere, Pettitte had decided to retire…
Ricketson wrote:
Louise Meanwell’s strength is her vagina. Still doesn’t mean that she’s going to have a decent year.
Steve L. wrote:
But if she does have a decent year of extortion, the reason will be…
@ Ricketson: Touché
“Wang ‘likely’ to return to Yankees”
The team invited the right-hander to work out for their scouts in Tampa in search of a minor league deal. Wang pitched well for Chinese Taipei in the Word Baseball Classic and impressed the Yankees by hitting the low-90s as he attempts to revive his career. “We have some vacancies in the rotation at [Triple-A] Scranton, so we’re exploring all those options and major league depth,” general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday.
Steve L. wrote:
Reasonable for a team with a couple of injuries and only the second-highest payroll in baseball after having had the highest payroll in only each of the last 14 seasons…
The starting pitching is not the strength that it should be, and vulnerable to innings pitched and age-related issues. It’s not a question of whether Pettitte will be sidelined, but for how many starts throughout the season. And the bullpen is not what it once was.
Mr. October wrote:
Agreed.
MJ Recanati wrote:
And they allowed 4.12 runs per game on average. Good for 4th in the AL.
Steve L. wrote:
Sure, I can dig it. Maybe this will turn out better than the Colon-Garcia discussion
Garcia wrote:
Depends on the angle; spring training stats don’t mean anything, until they do
@ Raf:
@ Garcia:
Spring Training stats should be ignored, unless they tie back to something you already know.
For example, if CC had an ERA in ST of 21, most times, no one should care. But, if CC had an ERA of 21 after having elbow surgery, then the stats matter.
Or, if you had a guy who was a .300 career hitter in the minors and who struggled in his cup of coffee as a rookie, and, now, in his second year, he’s having a good spring, then it probably means he’s found himself against major leaguers.
As always, you have to look at the stats in context.
“The New York Yankees have brought back a familiar face, signing pitcher Chien-Ming Wang to a minor league contract.”
McMillan wrote:
…and the point would be what, exactly?
That they signed a veteran to take a depth role at AAA?
Evan3457 wrote:
The HORROR!
Evan3457 wrote:
There was no point – other than to call attention to something that had been reported minutes earlier…
McMillan wrote:
Oh. O.K.
@ Evan3457:
And: If Wang were to be assigned a spot in the rotation in 2013, the Yankees would have a no. 1, no. 2, and no. 3 starter each with at least 4 years of experience pitching for the team. Of course, this is a Brian Cashman team, so those years are not necessarily concurrent and the pitchers are not necessarily nos. 1-3 starters or under the age of 40 any longer…
Mr. October wrote:
Steve L. wrote:
“The Yankees have decided to push… Pettitte’s next assignment to Friday… taking a conservative approach after the [41-yr.-old] left-hander (2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his first two starts) experienced back spasms last week.”
http://waswatching.com/2013/03/21/cashman-pitching-is-our-strength/