• Tigers Sign Joba

    Posted by on December 12th, 2013 · Comments (52)

    He rules!

    Comments on Tigers Sign Joba

    1. #15
      December 12th, 2013 | 4:23 pm

      Adios… Thick One.

      Better them than us.

      Don’t we get a bucket of baseballs or somethin’?

    2. redbug
      December 12th, 2013 | 7:52 pm

      The thing w/ Joba is that if the Yankees hadn’t screwed around w/ him…trying him as a starter, etc, I thought he would have succeeded Mo.

    3. #15
      December 12th, 2013 | 9:29 pm

      @ redbug:
      You could be right. I saw him as all short relief; stuff-wise, demeanor-wise, conditioning-wise.

      His problem was a lack of dedication. That would have caught up with him in any role he was given. Starter just accelerated the exposure.

    4. MJ Recanati
      December 13th, 2013 | 10:07 am

      redbug wrote:

      The thing w/ Joba is that if the Yankees hadn’t screwed around w/ him…trying him as a starter, etc, I thought he would have succeeded Mo.

      They didn’t screw around with him, he was always a starter (in college, in the minors). He was drafted as a starter and happened to come up as a reliever at the end of the ’07 season in part to cap his innings and in part to assist with a taxed bullpen. His initial debut as a starter in the big leagues was incredibly successful. What felled him in that role was a combination of injuries and an inability to adjust to the hitters who had adjusted to him. The former is bad luck but the latter was his own fault.

      Goodbye #62…you won’t be missed.

    5. December 13th, 2013 | 11:00 am

      Both Hughes and Joba were put on the pedestal too soon, got fat heads, and paid the price for it. Everyone had a hand in it – the team, media and the fans. Hopefully, the Yankees learn from it.

    6. MJ Recanati
      December 13th, 2013 | 11:45 am

      @ Steve L.:
      That might’ve been true of Hughes initially but I think he made an earnest attempt to be in shape, work hard, and listen to his coaches over the final three years. That he wasn’t able to capitalize on his talent wasn’t the result of arrogance.

      Chamberlain, however, never seemed to get the memo. He seemed to get lazier as the results got worse.

    7. Evan3457
      December 13th, 2013 | 1:59 pm

      So, the Tigers, aka Dombrowski, thinks Joba has enough value to sign to a contract. Interesting.

      I still think he has ability, and if anyone can get his head out of his armpit, he’ll make a good pitcher for someone.

    8. McMillan
      December 13th, 2013 | 11:04 pm

      redbug wrote:

      The thing w/ Joba is that if the Yankees hadn’t screwed around w/ him…trying him as a starter…

      100% correct. The team screwed around with him, and he did not have the makeup to be successful as a starter at the Major League level.

    9. McMillan
      December 13th, 2013 | 11:15 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      That [Hughes] wasn’t able to capitalize on his talent wasn’t the result of arrogance.

      I think they gave up on Phil Hughes too soon; he might establish a new ceiling for himself in Minnesota.

      This organization needs to have more patience with its young starting pitching… look at all of the successful starting pitchers throughout M.L.B. that have come through this system since 2005…

    10. Kamieniecki
      December 13th, 2013 | 11:30 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      So, the Tigers, aka Dombrowski, thinks Joba has enough value to sign to a contract. Interesting.

      So, the Royals have signed the best free agent 2nd baseman on the market, Infante. Interesting. What Brian Cashman, a.ka.,The Man With A Plan, do now?

    11. Evan3457
      December 14th, 2013 | 5:09 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      So, the Tigers, aka Dombrowski, thinks Joba has enough value to sign to a contract. Interesting.
      So, the Royals have signed the best free agent 2nd baseman on the market, Infante. Interesting. What Brian Cashman, a.ka.,The Man With A Plan, do now?

      I’d assume they’ll try to get a different guy.

    12. Sweet Lou
      December 14th, 2013 | 9:25 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      I’d assume they’ll try to get a different guy.

      It’s great that an organization can go FROM having the best second baseman in baseball and a player on a track to go to Coooperstown at the age of 29 in 2012, TO “trying to get a guy” to play second base in 2013.

    13. Evan3457
      December 15th, 2013 | 3:48 am

      Sweet Lou wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      I’d assume they’ll try to get a different guy.
      It’s great that an organization can go FROM having the best second baseman in baseball and a player on a track to go to Coooperstown at the age of 29 in 2012, TO “trying to get a guy” to play second base in 2013.

      They’re also trying to get a guy for the rotation, and trying to get a veteran backup closer.

      And you’re trying, and failing, to make a federal case out of it.

    14. McMillan
      December 15th, 2013 | 9:00 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      They’re also trying to get a guy for the rotation

      Since 2010…

      Evan3457 wrote:

      and trying to get a veteran backup closer.

      Rivera’s retirement in 2013 took Cashman by surprise…

      @ Evan3457:
      http://deadspin.com/5845140/the-photos-of-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-that-broke-up-a-marriage

    15. Kamieniecki
      December 15th, 2013 | 9:27 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      And you’re trying, and failing, to make a federal case out of it.

      Why would anyone make a federal case out of losing the best second baseman in the history of this illustrious franchise, and replacing him with Darwin Bailey? It’s not as if the person making the decisions, Brian McGuire Cashman, is not there as the most qualified person to hold the position of Senior V.P. and General Manager of the New York Yankees…

    16. Evan3457
      December 17th, 2013 | 2:55 am

      McMillan wrote:

      Rivera’s retirement in 2013 took Cashman by surprise…

      No, it didn’t, but only an idiot signs two $10 million a year closers “in case the 1st one gets hurt”.

      @ Evan3457:
      http://deadspin.com/5845140/the-photos-of-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-that-broke-up-a-marriage

      Who, besides you, cares?

    17. Evan3457
      December 17th, 2013 | 2:57 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      And you’re trying, and failing, to make a federal case out of it.
      Why would anyone make a federal case out of losing the best second baseman in the history of this illustrious franchise, and replacing him with Darwin Bailey? It’s not as if the person making the decisions, Brian McGuire Cashman, is not there as the most qualified person to hold the position of Senior V.P. and General Manager of the New York Yankees…

      1. Barney isn’t here yet.
      2. They can lose Cano and still contend if they make improvements in other areas, such as, say, outfield. And catcher. And pitching.
      3. He may not be the MOST qualified person to hold his job, but a) his bosses haven’t fired him, yet, and he’s a lot more qualified to hold it than, say, YOU, for example.

    18. Evan3457
      December 17th, 2013 | 2:58 am

      McMillan

      Rivera’s retirement in 2013 took Cashman by surprise…

      Not at all. But why acquire a 2nd closer during the season? Kevin Gregg is a phone call and a cheap contract away, to name one mediocre example.

    19. MJ Recanati
      December 17th, 2013 | 9:28 am

      McMillan wrote:

      http://deadspin.com/5845140/the-photos-of-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-that-broke-up-a-marriage

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Who, besides you, cares?

      Besides McMillan, I think Mr. October, PHMDen, Kamieniecki, Ricketson, and Sweet Lou care. There might be others, but medication seems to be capping the personalities at six.

    20. Kamieniecki
      December 17th, 2013 | 10:19 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:


      2. They can lose Cano and still contend if they make improvements in other areas, such as, say, outfield. And catcher. And pitching.

      Really?

      Do you think they might be able to improve on the “championship-caliber” pitching currently in place and fronted by Sabathia, Kuroda, and Nova in the starting rotation? Even if Masahiro Tanaka: 1. is posted; 2. is signed; and 3. performs at the level of a no. 1 starter, this team will not have the pitching to win in October.

      @ MJ Recanati:
      And once again, great job with the W.A.R. analysis for Sheffield-for-Sanchez trade. The only thing you did not account for was the somewhat insignificant fact that Gary Sheffield suffered a career-ending injury six months into the first season after yet another trade in which Cashman received no value at all; but other than that, everything else in your “analysis” was spot on…

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Gary Sheffield earned $38.2M in the three years after he was traded. In that same time period he was worth 1.03 bWAR/season above replacement. At appoximately $5M per win, Sheffield was paid nearly double what he was worth.

      By just getting rid of a player the Yankees had no room for and getting a team to send players in return made it a successful trade. The Tigers paid him $24.2M for $14M worth of replacement value, or got about -10,242,377 worth of value out of Sheffield.

      http://waswatching.com/2009/03/31/former-yank-sheffield-released-by-tigers/

    21. Evan3457
      December 18th, 2013 | 2:20 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:

      2. They can lose Cano and still contend if they make improvements in other areas, such as, say, outfield. And catcher. And pitching.

      Really?
      Do you think they might be able to improve on the “championship-caliber” pitching currently in place and fronted by Sabathia, Kuroda, and Nova in the starting rotation? Even if Masahiro Tanaka: 1. is posted; 2. is signed; and 3. performs at the level of a no. 1 starter, this team will not have the pitching to win in October.

      Just because you say that doesn’t make it so.

    22. Greg H.
      December 18th, 2013 | 4:44 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      McMillan wrote:
      http://deadspin.com/5845140/the-photos-of-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-that-broke-up-a-marriage
      Evan3457 wrote:
      Who, besides you, cares?
      Besides McMillan, I think Mr. October, PHMDen, Kamieniecki, Ricketson, and Sweet Lou care. There might be others, but medication seems to be capping the personalities at six.

      Lol. Where’s Baileywick anyway?

    23. December 18th, 2013 | 9:57 am

      Never mind Bailey, where’s Raf?

    24. MJ Recanati
      December 18th, 2013 | 10:02 am

      Greg H. wrote:

      Where’s Baileywick anyway?

      Wow, there’s a blast from the past!

    25. MJ Recanati
      December 18th, 2013 | 10:03 am

      Steve L. wrote:

      Never mind Bailey, where’s Raf?

      He still checks in from time to time though, at present, he’s traveling for Christmas.

      I also think he’s had it with the six-headed troll that’s killing this place.

    26. Greg H.
      December 18th, 2013 | 1:08 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Steve L. wrote:
      I also think he’s had it with the six-headed troll that’s killing this place.

      Quite a bit of that going around.

    27. Kamieniecki
      December 18th, 2013 | 8:16 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Even if Masahiro Tanaka: 1. is posted; 2. is signed; and 3. performs at the level of a no. 1 starter, this team will not have the pitching to win in October.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Just because you say that doesn’t make it so.

      @ Evan3457:
      Just because I say that the Earth is round, doesn’t make it so either.

      Even IF Tanaka is signed AND becomes a no. 1 in The Bronx, 1 no. 1, and 2 nos. 3s and 2 nos. 5s in the rotation will not get it done: but feel free to keep kidding yourself that it will, while The Yankees’ brass laughs all the way to the bank.

      And as everyone was telling you all of last year while you argued with them, this organization is NOT able to field a contending team with a payroll of “only” $189 milion in 2014 – it’s around that number now, and this is still NOT a 90-win team.

      Their Pythagorean record in 2013 was 79-83. They won 85 games because of their performance in one-run games: a 30-16 record WITH RIVERA; no help for Cashman from Harding Peterson or Gene Michael this year in the form of a Mariano Rivera – Cashman’s on his own with Thornton, Robertson, and Liz Claiborne in the bullpen.

      But keep kidding yourself that all they need is that one last wildcard spot, and “anything can happen” in Oct.

    28. McMillan
      December 18th, 2013 | 8:23 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Even IF Tanaka is signed AND becomes a no. 1 in The Bronx…

      @ Kamieniecki:
      At the Yankee Stadium press conference introducing his latest Japanes import, Cashman’s going to put a Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Railriders jersey and cap on Tanaka.

    29. Mr. October
      December 18th, 2013 | 9:30 pm

      McMillan wrote:

      Tanaka

      Tanaka will be the first Japanese pitcher Cashman signs over 5’11″ in height, or with a fastball clocked at more than 87 m.p.h., or for more than $46 million.

    30. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 12:16 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Kamieniecki wrote:
      Even if Masahiro Tanaka: 1. is posted; 2. is signed; and 3. performs at the level of a no. 1 starter, this team will not have the pitching to win in October.
      Evan3457 wrote:
      Just because you say that doesn’t make it so.
      @ Evan3457:
      Just because I say that the Earth is round, doesn’t make it so either.

      Your world is flat. Like your head.

      Even IF Tanaka is signed AND becomes a no. 1 in The Bronx, 1 no. 1, and 2 nos. 3s and 2 nos. 5s in the rotation will not get it done:

      Assumes many things. What did the Red Sox rotation look like at this time last season?

      Post-season ace Lester was coming off what was by far the worst season of his career. Post-season #2 Lackey was coming off Tommy John surgery. Post-season #3 Buchholz was coming off HIS worst season in 5 years. Post-season #4 Peavy was pitching for another team. Before the season started, people knew the Sox were still a pretty good team, but they were still 25/1 to win the series, behind, among other teams, the Blue Jays, the Angels, the Giants, the Phillies, and, yes, the Yankees. A great many things went wrong for the Red Sox in 2012, and nearly everything went right for them last year. Even their multiple injuries at closer turned out to be a blessing in disguise, because they never would’ve turned to Uehara had either Hanrahan or Bailey stayed healthy.

      but feel free to keep kidding yourself that it will, while The Yankees’ brass laughs all the way to the bank.

      Not laughing at my expense. I went to only 4 games last year, after going to 8-12 games the previous 3 years.

      And as everyone was telling you all of last year while you argued with them, this organization is NOT able to field a contending team with a payroll of “only” $189 milion in 2014 – it’s around that number now, and this is still NOT a 90-win team.

      If they can add Tanaka, and he performs as several teams, not just the Yankees expect, and A-Rod is suspended, then they will be under.

      Their Pythagorean record in 2013 was 79-83. They won 85 games because of their performance in one-run games: a 30-16 record WITH RIVERA;

      Let’s assume that they were a 79-83 team. The loss of Cano will cost them about 6 WAR. Now, they’re a 73 win team. Now add back in:

      2-3 WAR from McCann over the Stewart/Romine/Murphy/Cervelli group at catcher. Now, they’re a 75-76 win team.
      2-3 WAR from Teixeira over the Overbay/Reynolds pairing at 1st. 77-79 wins.
      2-3 WAR from Jeter over the Brignac/Nunez/Jeter/Nix/Ryan grouping. To do this. Jeter needs to be about 1 WAR, because the group as a whole was about -1.5 to -2.0 WAR last season. 79-82 wins.
      The Yankees’ collective 3rd baseman were about 0.5 WAR. Just finding a replacement level 3rd baseman to fill in covers that.

      The leftfielders last year put together about 1.5-2 WAR, including Soriano. Gardner, by himself, is good for about 4 WAR. 82-86 wins.
      Ellsbury, staying healthy and coming close but not quite matching last year, replaces Gardner’s 4 WAR, with upside for more.
      The Yankee rightfielders mostly Suzuki/Granderson and Wells, were about 1.5-2 WAR. Beltran’s averaged 3 WAR per year over the last 3 years. That’s another +1 WAR, 83-87 wins

      The Yankee DH’s, as a group, were dead last in the AL in BAVG/OBA/SLG/OPS 12th in runs scored and HR, and 14th in RBI. WAR is not recorded in a manner that allows the number to be counted for this group, but they had to be at least 20 runs worse than league average, and therefore, no better than 0 WAR. Soriano, by himself, should be at least +1 WAR. 84-88 wins.

      On the pitching side…

      Sabathia was 0 WAR. If he comes back halfway to what he was, even to his reduced effectiveness of 2012, that’s plus 3 more WAR 87-91 wins.

      Kuroda was 4 WAR. This is a little better than he averaged the previous 3 seasons. If he drops off to 3 WAR, that’s 86-90 wins.

      Pettitte pitched brilliantly down the stretch, and wound up at 2.5 WAR. If they sign Tanaka, he should be able to match that. That’s what other teams think, or people wouldn’t be speculating that he’ll sign for $15-20 million a year.

      Nova was 4 WAR better than Hughes last year, even though he only spent half the season in the rotation. Assuming he doesn’t pitch as well over the whole season. Call it +2 WAR, and that’s 88-92 wins.

      Mariano was the greatest ever…up to about the end of July last year. After that he hurt his arm. After that, he was not just below average for Mariano, he was a subpar closer, and the Yanks quickly dropped out of the race. He saved 9 and blew 6 saves in August and September. He was 2.5 WAR. Robertson had the same WAR.

      Assume Robertson flubs the closer’s job. The Yanks sign a veteran replacement closer, Robertson goes back to setting up, which he’s outstanding at. Or Girardi finds a closer from among his arms. As the Cards did with Mujica last year after Motte went down. As the Sox did with Uehara after Bailey and Hanrahan went down. As 10-12 teams a year do when their closer flops or gets hurt

      Will that replace Old Mariano? Nothing will, but Mariano, 2013, wasn’t old Mariano, either. Go big on the loss and it’s -2 WAR, and that’s 86-90 wins.

      All this assumes that they sign Tanaka. No other substantial players need be acquired. That nobody from the farm will come up and do better. That Phelps, Pineda, Nuno and others will do no better in the #5 slot than they did as a group last year. 86-90 wins, and that’s in the race. Some of the guys will get hurt. Others will perform above what they’re figured for. If they all get hurt for long periods, multiple times, as they did last year, then they won’t be in the race. I’m thinking they won’t get that unlucky again this year. They might, but I don’t think so. If they make a couple of other minor pickups, that’ll add another WAR or two.

      But keep kidding yourself that all they need is that one last wildcard spot, and “anything can happen” in Oct.

      …and you keep telling yourself they have no shot at the playoffs.

    31. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 12:21 am

      Mr. October wrote:

      McMillan wrote:
      Tanaka
      Tanaka will be the first Japanese pitcher Cashman signs over 5’11″ in height, or with a fastball clocked at more than 87 m.p.h., or for more than $46 million.

      Igawa’s average FB with the Yankees was 89.4.
      http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7794&position=P

    32. Kamieniecki
      December 19th, 2013 | 1:15 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      If they can add Tanaka, and he performs as several teams, not just the Yankees expect, and A-Rod is suspended, then they will be under.

      @ Evan3457:
      All of last year you were writing that they can be under the $189 million AND field a contending team – before the Alex Rodriguez suspension was on the horizon, and the team can not without the suspension, as you were told.

    33. Kamieniecki
      December 19th, 2013 | 1:22 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Let’s assume that they were a 79-83 team. The loss of Cano will cost them about 6 WAR. Now, they’re a 73 win team. Now add back in:
      2-3 WAR from McCann over the Stewart/Romine/Murphy/Cervelli group at catcher. Now, they’re a 75-76 win team.
      2-3 WAR from Teixeira over the Overbay/Reynolds pairing at 1st. 77-79 wins.
      2-3 WAR from Jeter over the Brignac/Nunez/Jeter/Nix/Ryan grouping. To do this. Jeter needs to be about 1 WAR, because the group as a whole was about -1.5 to -2.0 WAR last season. 79-82 wins.
      The Yankees’ collective 3rd baseman were about 0.5 WAR. Just finding a replacement level 3rd baseman to fill in covers that.
      The leftfielders last year put together about 1.5-2 WAR, including Soriano. Gardner, by himself, is good for about 4 WAR. 82-86 wins.
      Ellsbury, staying healthy and coming close but not quite matching last year, replaces Gardner’s 4 WAR, with upside for more.
      The Yankee rightfielders mostly Suzuki/Granderson and Wells, were about 1.5-2 WAR. Beltran’s averaged 3 WAR per year over the last 3 years. That’s another +1 WAR, 83-87 wins
      The Yankee DH’s, as a group, were dead last in the AL in BAVG/OBA/SLG/OPS 12th in runs scored and HR, and 14th in RBI. WAR is not recorded in a manner that allows the number to be counted for this group, but they had to be at least 20 runs worse than league average, and therefore, no better than 0 WAR. Soriano, by himself, should be at least +1 WAR. 84-88 wins.
      On the pitching side…
      Sabathia was 0 WAR. If he comes back halfway to what he was, even to his reduced effectiveness of 2012, that’s plus 3 more WAR 87-91 wins.
      Kuroda was 4 WAR. This is a little better than he averaged the previous 3 seasons. If he drops off to 3 WAR, that’s 86-90 wins.
      Pettitte pitched brilliantly down the stretch, and wound up at 2.5 WAR. If they sign Tanaka, he should be able to match that. That’s what other teams think, or people wouldn’t be speculating that he’ll sign for $15-20 million a year.
      Nova was 4 WAR better than Hughes last year, even though he only spent half the season in the rotation. Assuming he doesn’t pitch as well over the whole season. Call it +2 WAR, and that’s 88-92 wins.
      Mariano was the greatest ever…up to about the end of July last year. After that he hurt his arm. After that, he was not just below average for Mariano, he was a subpar closer, and the Yanks quickly dropped out of the race. He saved 9 and blew 6 saves in August and September. He was 2.5 WAR. Robertson had the same WAR.
      Assume Robertson flubs the closer’s job. The Yanks sign a veteran replacement closer, Robertson goes back to setting up, which he’s outstanding at. Or Girardi finds a closer from among his arms. As the Cards did with Mujica last year after Motte went down. As the Sox did with Uehara after Bailey and Hanrahan went down. As 10-12 teams a year do when their closer flops or gets hurt
      Will that replace Old Mariano? Nothing will, but Mariano, 2013, wasn’t old Mariano, either. Go big on the loss and it’s -2 WAR, and that’s 86-90 wins.
      All this assumes that they sign Tanaka. No other substantial players need be acquired. That nobody from the farm will come up and do better. That Phelps, Pineda, Nuno and others will do no better in the #5 slot than they did as a group last year. 86-90 wins, and that’s in the race. Some of the guys will get hurt. Others will perform above what they’re figured for. If they all get hurt for long periods, multiple times, as they did last year, then they won’t be in the race. I’m thinking they won’t get that unlucky again this year. They might, but I don’t think so. If they make a couple of other minor pickups, that’ll add another WAR or two.

      @ Evan3457:
      Aren’t you the one who projected Javier Vazquez would go 16-8 with a 4.50 E.R.A. in 2010 by averaging the 2009 pitching statistics of Sabthia, Pettitte, and Burnett – a methodology you referred to as a “sophisticated projection system?”

    34. McMillan
      December 19th, 2013 | 1:51 am

      @ Evan3457:
      No shot at winning a pennant with Sabathia, Kuroda, and Nova as the nos. 1-3 starters, and no shot at winning a pennant with Tanaka, Sabathia, and Kuroda as the nos. 1-3 starters. No shot at all. Sorry, chump… I told you that last year, and I’m telling you the same thing again this year.

    35. Kamieniecki
      December 19th, 2013 | 10:06 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      All this assumes that they sign Tanaka.

      “Masahiro Tanaka not expected to be posted by Japanese club, throwing wrench into Yankees’ rotation plans

      According to Japanese media reports, the Rakuten Golden Eagles aren’t ready to part with the reigning MVP of the Pacific League. The Golden Eagles control his rights through the 2015 season.”

      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/japanese-team-won-tanaka-mlb-reports-article-1.1552664

      @ Evan3457:
      You should have waited one more day before you did all of that work. Next assumption…

    36. PHMDen
      December 19th, 2013 | 10:14 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Assume Robertson flubs the closer’s job. The Yanks sign a veteran replacement closer, Robertson goes back to setting up, which he’s outstanding at. Or Girardi finds a closer from among his arms. As the Cards did with Mujica last year after Motte went down. As the Sox did with Uehara after Bailey and Hanrahan went down. As 10-12 teams a year do when their closer flops or gets hurt…

      The important difference here is that both the Cards and the Sox have a G.M. with an I.Q. above 90. That’s why the Cards and Sox together have won 6 League Championships in the last 10 years. Cashman couldn’t find a veteran replacement closer if Koji Uehara bit him on the ass.

    37. Mr. October
      December 19th, 2013 | 10:45 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Igawa’s average FB with the Yankees was 89.4.
      http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7794&position=P

      Which means Igawa threw 87.

    38. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 11:33 pm

      Mr. October wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Igawa’s average FB with the Yankees was 89.4.
      http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7794&position=P
      Which means Igawa threw 87.

      No, it means he threw 89.4, which was his AVERAGE fastball.
      Try to keep up, Sybil.

    39. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 11:35 pm

      PHMDen wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Assume Robertson flubs the closer’s job. The Yanks sign a veteran replacement closer, Robertson goes back to setting up, which he’s outstanding at. Or Girardi finds a closer from among his arms. As the Cards did with Mujica last year after Motte went down. As the Sox did with Uehara after Bailey and Hanrahan went down. As 10-12 teams a year do when their closer flops or gets hurt…
      The important difference here is that both the Cards and the Sox have a G.M. with an I.Q. above 90. That’s why the Cards and Sox together have won 6 League Championships in the last 10 years. Cashman couldn’t find a veteran replacement closer if Koji Uehara bit him on the ass.

      Hasn’t had to. The one year Mariano was seriously hurt, they had signed Soriano for $10 million+ a year. With an opt out clause.

    40. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 11:38 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      :
      Aren’t you the one who projected Javier Vazquez would go 16-8 with a 4.50 E.R.A. in 2010 by averaging the 2009 pitching statistics of Sabthia, Pettitte, and Burnett – a methodology you referred to as a “sophisticated projection system?”

      Never did. Sorry. Taking an average and making slight adjustments? Find the quote. James, Zips, Marcel, PECOTA…all those are sophisticated projection system, run by people who are expert at it.

      All of them missed by more than my simpler system. Think about that one for awhile, Sybil.

    41. Evan3457
      December 19th, 2013 | 11:42 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      If they can add Tanaka, and he performs as several teams, not just the Yankees expect, and A-Rod is suspended, then they will be under.
      @ Evan3457:
      All of last year you were writing that they can be under the $189 million AND field a contending team – before the Alex Rodriguez suspension was on the horizon, and the team can not without the suspension, as you were told.

      Didn’t anticipate the massive repeated injuries to that many key players up and down the roster, plus the sudden collapse of Sabathia.

      Circumstances change. However, if they can find a starter who can replace Pettitte’s 2.5 WAR from last year, that analysis is still valid, because 2.5 WAR was all gave Tanaka. Bronson Arroyo’s done better than that 3 of the last 5 years.

    42. Kamieniecki
      December 20th, 2013 | 8:10 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Didn’t anticipate the massive repeated injuries to that many key players up and down the roster, plus the sudden collapse of Sabathia.

      @ Evan3457:
      The massive repeated injuries to a .230-hitting center fielder no G.M. had an interest in signing to a contract for more than four years in the 2013-14 offseason, and a first baseman who had been in decline for three years, has nothing to do with fielding a contending team for under $189 million in 2014 with the contracts of Sabathia, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Cashman on the books, Sybil. It could not be done.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Tanaka

      Tanaka is not official.

    43. McMillan
      December 20th, 2013 | 8:20 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Didn’t anticipate… the sudden collapse of Sabathia.

      The “sudden” collapse of a pitcher with more innings in his arm than any other in baseball whose velocity had been declining for years…

    44. Evan3457
      December 20th, 2013 | 9:27 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Didn’t anticipate the massive repeated injuries to that many key players up and down the roster, plus the sudden collapse of Sabathia.
      @ Evan3457:
      The massive repeated injuries to a .230-hitting center fielder no G.M. had an interest in signing to a contract for more than four years in the 2013-14 offseason, and a first baseman who had been in decline for three years, has nothing to do with fielding a contending team for under $189 million in 2014 with the contracts of Sabathia, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Cashman on the books, Sybil. It could not be done.
      Evan3457 wrote:
      Tanaka
      Tanaka is not official.

      The injury to Granderson meant that Ichiro and Wells had to play more, and that hurt the team. The guys replacing the first baseman who had been in decline were far worse than even his decline phase.

      And that’s not even counting the synergistic effect of the pitching staff collapsing in the 2nd half under the weight of trying to carry the vastly-weakened offense for the whole season.

      If you think the injuries to Granderson and Teixeira didn’t hurt the Yankees, and badly, then you’re an idiot.

      But I repeat myself.

    45. Evan3457
      December 20th, 2013 | 9:33 pm

      McMillan wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      Didn’t anticipate… the sudden collapse of Sabathia.
      The “sudden” collapse of a pitcher with more innings in his arm than any other in baseball whose velocity had been declining for years…

      And Roy Hallday carried the same burden and was 3 years older when he succumbed.

      Sabathia’s average velocity was 1 mph slower in 2011 than it was in the year he threw his hardest, which was as a 24-year old in 2005, and was slightly higher than it was the year before. It was at that moment he opted out and the Yanks re-signed him. The 1st year of significant velocity dropoff was 2012, when he suffered some sort of elbow injury.

    46. McMillan
      December 20th, 2013 | 9:34 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Didn’t anticipate the massive repeated injuries to that many key players up and down the roster, plus the sudden collapse of Sabathia.

      @ Evan3457:
      So, you ridicule me for predicting in Nov., 2012, that Detroit will win the 2013 A.L.C.S. after Detroit comes within 18 innings of a pennant 11 months later, but you’re off the hook for predicting 90-92 wins on the back of an envelope in Jan., 2013, because of injuries to Granderson and Teixeira? That makes sense.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      All of them missed by more than my simpler system.

      @ Evan3457:
      You call that “a system?”

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      … [Cashman is] very well regarded by his peers.

      @ Evan3457:
      Maybe you can help me out, Evan: I’m trying to locate any reference to an alleged or supposed anonymous survey taken by all M.L.B. G.M.s, in which Cashman was rated as “very well-regarded by his peers,” but I’m not having much luck. Any ideas?

    47. McMillan
      December 20th, 2013 | 9:38 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      If you think the injuries to Granderson and Teixeira didn’t hurt the Yankees, and badly, then you’re an idiot.

      @ McMillan:
      Cashman’s failures in the 2012-13 offseason hurt the team more, and if you think otherwise, then you’re still an idiot.

    48. Mr. October
      December 20th, 2013 | 10:46 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      The injury to Granderson meant that Ichiro and Wells had to play more, and that hurt the team. The guys replacing the first baseman who had been in decline were far worse than even his decline phase.

      The team was a house of cards. But what do you want for $237.5 mil.?

      Evan3457 wrote:

      … And that’s not even counting the synergistic effect of the pitching staff collapsing in the 2nd half under the weight of trying to carry the vastly-weakened offense for the whole season.

      The 38 year old starter who collapsed in the 2nd half for the second time in two years, for example, and who will be back in Cashman’s “championship-caliber” rotation for 2014 at the age of 39? Anything is possible in the playoffs – Kuroda could collapse in the second half for the third time in three yeaes, and then dominate teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, A’s, Rays, Cardinals, and Dodgers – for four weeks. Anything can happen; it’s all a crapshoot.

    49. Evan3457
      December 25th, 2013 | 5:09 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      All this assumes that they sign Tanaka.
      “Masahiro Tanaka not expected to be posted by Japanese club, throwing wrench into Yankees’ rotation plans
      According to Japanese media reports, the Rakuten Golden Eagles aren’t ready to part with the reigning MVP of the Pacific League. The Golden Eagles control his rights through the 2015 season.”
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/japanese-team-won-tanaka-mlb-reports-article-1.1552664
      @ Evan3457:
      You should have waited one more day before you did all of that work. Next assumption…

      Right again, Sybil…

      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/masahiro-tanaka-posted-report-article-1.1557932

      Well, let’s see if it actually happens.
      Then we’ll see if the Yanks put in their qualifying bid.
      Then we’ll see how much he’s going to cost, and if the Yanks go all in to get him.

      Then we’ll see if he’s as good as he’s supposed to be.

    50. Kamieniecki
      December 25th, 2013 | 10:42 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Tanaka is not official.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Right again, Sybil…
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/masahiro-tanaka-posted-report-article-1.1557932

      @ Evan3457:
      What is wrong with you?

      Now, all we have to do to know what Tanaka’s numbers will be in New York in 2014 is apply your sopshisticated projection system that came up with 16-8 for Javier Vazquez in 2010 by averaging the 2009 numbers of the Yankees’ starting pitchers, correct? Idiot.

    51. Kamieniecki
      December 26th, 2013 | 12:35 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      [The Yankees fielding a team below the $189 million luxury tax threshold in 2014] is a done deal.

      @ Evan3457:
      Right again, Sybil…

      “… With or without Tanaka, the Yankees are not getting under that magic number if Alex Rodriguez does not remain suspended…”

    52. Evan3457
      December 26th, 2013 | 2:24 am

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Kamieniecki wrote:
      Tanaka is not official.
      Evan3457 wrote:
      Right again, Sybil…
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/masahiro-tanaka-posted-report-article-1.1557932
      @ Evan3457:
      What is wrong with you?
      Now, all we have to do to know what Tanaka’s numbers will be in New York in 2014 is apply your sopshisticated projection system that came up with 16-8 for Javier Vazquez in 2010 by averaging the 2009 numbers of the Yankees’ starting pitchers, correct? Idiot.

      Pathetic fail to admit error, or at least jumping the gun.

      But let’s see if they sign Tanaka, assuming he is posted. Then you can root against him with all you puny might.

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