• Which Decision Will Come First, A-Rod Or Tanaka?

    Posted by on December 25th, 2013 · Comments (26)

    What are the chances that both of these babies break the Yankees way? In any event, are favorable decisions on both of these the only way the Yankees will be a contender in 2014?

    Comments on Which Decision Will Come First, A-Rod Or Tanaka?

    1. #15
      December 25th, 2013 | 9:02 pm

      Not all Tanaka’s are team players…

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLvz5E61UNs

      But I’d take a chance on this one.

    2. McMillan
      December 25th, 2013 | 10:33 pm

      Tanaka will be the no. 2 starter that this rotation desperately needs; but for this team to get to the World Series for only the second time since 2005, it will need more than 2 nos. 2s, 2 nos. 4s, and a no. 6.

    3. Kamieniecki
      December 25th, 2013 | 10:44 pm

      Jason Bump was going to be Cashman’s no. 5 starter if Tanaka wasn’t posted.

    4. Mr. October
      December 25th, 2013 | 11:30 pm

      Masahiro Tanaka is going to be the first Japanese pitcher above 5’11″ in height, or with a fastball of more than 90 m.p.h., that Brian Cahsman has signed. As a commenter on WFAN explained this afternoon, “… the Yankees are a team that can afford to make a mistake on Tanaka financially…”

    5. Mr. October
      December 25th, 2013 | 11:41 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Jason Bump was going to be Cashman’s no. 5 starter if Tanaka wasn’t posted.

      Actually, Cashman was planning to take a look at Johan Santana before he gave the last spot in his rotation to Louise Neathway’s ex-husband.

    6. redbug
      December 26th, 2013 | 8:19 am

      Bob Klapisch. of the Bergen Record, is reporting the Arod decision will be out in early Jan. If he’s correct, Arod will be 1st. (Tanaka has to sign by 1/24.)

      Even if Arod is banned all next season, the Yanks will blow past their luxury tax limit if they’re lucky enough to win the Tanaka sweepstakes.

      If he can match his talents here, Tanaka, plus an improved offense (assuming health), should give the Yanks a shot at the playoffs.

    7. December 26th, 2013 | 10:45 am

      @ redbug:
      The MLB decision on A-Rod will be out next month. But, will that be the end of it? I doubt it.

    8. redbug
      December 26th, 2013 | 11:28 am

      @ Steve L.:will that be the end of it? I doubt it.

      I hope so, but I know a court may allow Arod to play while he pursues his case vs MLB (or another one of his many current and future lawsuits).

    9. December 26th, 2013 | 6:39 pm

      The A-Rod thing could go on forever with the courts, etc. A-Rod has nothing to lose by continuing to fight. And, he has everything to gain by dragging it out as long as he can…

    10. Kamieniecki
      December 27th, 2013 | 8:11 am

      After spending $400-25 million in the 2008-09 offseason, the Yankees made the playoffs. But…

      The difference between Brian Cashman’s $423.5 million 2008-09 offseason, and Cashman’s $400-25 million 2013-14 offseason, is that the 2009 team didn’t have:

      1. a 34-year old 1st baseman who missed the previous season due to a wrist injury, and was experiencing discomfort or tightness in the wrist in Dec., 2008;

      2. a 36-year old 2nd baseman who averaged 46 games played in the previous 4 seasons;

      3. a 38-year old 3rd baseman facing a 150-211 game suspension for P.E.D. use;

      4. a 40-year old shortstop who missed the previous season due to injury;

      5. a 39-year old left-fielder whose former club is paying 75% of his salary to be rid of him;

      6. a 31-year old center-fielder who averaged 102 games played in the previous 7 seasons;

      7. a 37-year old right-fielder;

      8. a no. 1 starter who had never pitched an inning in a M.L.B. game;

      9. a no. 2 starter who had an E.R.A. above 4.75 in the previous season;

      10. a no. 3 starter who was 39 years old and couldn’t pitch to an E..R.A. below 5.00 after July; and

      11. a closer not named Mariano Rivera.

      Just sayin’…

    11. #15
      December 27th, 2013 | 8:51 am

      Guys…
      Going to hijack this thread… Lost a good friend last night in Paul Blair. I’ve known him for more than a dozen years and had the great opportunity to play baseball in the Yankee Fantasy Camp tournaments where he coached our team many times. Paul was a gentleman, a great ball player, a natural coach, and a very competitive, but always under control, guy… A 1/2 dozen of us gravitated to playing for him for those reason and never looked back. We’ve won the tournament 5 years in a row and in 6 of the last 7 years. For all but one of those, when Paul had a heart issue right before the 2009 camp, Paul lead our team. We first got to play for him in 2001… and, yes, we won it that year too. It didn’t occur to us until years later that we could start asking for him as our coach. We were set to tee it up for him again in Tampa in a few weeks and I swapped texts with him right before Christmas; both saying how much we were looking forward to seeing each other and having the core of the team back for another year.

      Paul really knew the game. I once asked Mickey Rivers who taught him the most about the game… “Paul Blair.” Paul certainly deserved his nickname… great story teller and just about always got the last word.

      Paul talked openly about how lucky he was to have had a chance to be a Yankee, even after all those great years with Baltimore. Although things changed a bit for the better in the last few years, Paul was always disappointed that the Orioles failed to embrace the legacy of their winning teams like the Yankees did. “Because I played for the Yankees for two years… I don’t have to work for a living. There is always a card show, or a signing, or a camp for me to be at.”

      RIP Skip.

    12. Mr. October
      December 27th, 2013 | 9:14 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      After spending $400-25 million in the 2008-09 offseason…

      They won’t be spending $243.5 million on free agent starting pitching this time – only $136 million for Kuroda and Tanaka.

      Another record for Brian Cashman: The first GM of a $200 million Major League team with a no. 1 starter who’s never pitched an inning in the Major Leagues.

      Why haven’t the Yankees had more “championship-caliber” starting pitchers in the Cashman Autonomy Era?

      If the Yankees have had $200-40 million to spend each yr. to field “championship-caliber” teams, nos. 1-3 starting pitchers average better than 1.00 fewer earned runs allowed per nine IP in the postseason than nos. 4-5 starters, and teams with lower starting pitching ERAs for a postseason series have won 83.75% of those series since 1995, then why hasn’t this franchise had more nos. 1-2 starting pitchers since 2005?

      Because George Steinbrenner became the de facto G.M. in 1998 when he made his business partner’s son the second-youngest G.M. in M.L.B. history, needing someone to represent the franchise at the GM and Winter meetings, and not enough Michael Cole Mussinas have been available on the free agent market after 1998.

      Since 1998, the team has gone from winning World Series championships, to winning AL championships, to winning division titles, to a cycle of spending $400 million on free agents every fifth offseason to return to the playoffs.

    13. Kamieniecki
      December 27th, 2013 | 10:18 pm

      Mr. October wrote:

      Why haven’t the Yankees had more “championship-caliber” starting pitchers in the Cashman Autonomy Era?

      Oakland and Tampa Bay are able to put together “championship-caliber” starting pitching in the first 2-3 spots of their rotations and make it to the playoffs in most seasons, these teams simply don’t have the add’l $130-90 million Team Cashman’s had to sign free agent catchers, first basemen, third basemen, and corner outfielders.

      And Boston has been able to put together “championship-caliber” starting pitching in the first 2-3 spots of its rotations and win multiple world championships without the add’l $20-70 million Team Cashman’s had; Cashman might be a more popular G.M. in Boston than Epstein or Cherington…

    14. McMillan
      December 28th, 2013 | 9:29 am

      Mr. October wrote:

      If the Yankees have had $200-40 million to spend each yr. to field “championship-caliber” teams, nos. 1-3 starting pitchers average better than 1.00 fewer earned runs allowed per nine IP in the postseason than nos. 4-5 starters, and teams with lower starting pitching ERAs for a postseason series have won 83.75% of those series since 1995…

      Three nos. 1-2 caliber postseason starting pitchers would have gotten this team closer to winning 87.5% of postseason series played as the 1996-2001 teams did (with Key, Cone, Pettitte, Hernandez, Wells, Clemens, and Mussina) than 45.5% of postseason series played, as the 2005-2013 Cashman teams have.

      Mr. October wrote:

      Since 1998, the team has gone from winning World Series championships, to winning AL championships, to winning division titles, to a cycle of spending $400 million on free agents every fifth offseason to return to the playoffs.

      … return to the playoffs with not more than one A.L. pennant won in the previous five years; although one pennant every five years would be an improvement on one pennant every nine years (2005-2013).

    15. Evan3457
      December 28th, 2013 | 4:25 pm

      Mr. October wrote:

      Masahiro Tanaka is going to be the first Japanese pitcher above 5’11″ in height, or with a fastball of more than 90 m.p.h., that Brian Cahsman has signed. As a commenter on WFAN explained this afternoon, “… the Yankees are a team that can afford to make a mistake on Tanaka financially…”

      One pitcher. One. LOL.

    16. Evan3457
      December 28th, 2013 | 4:25 pm

      Steve L. wrote:

      The A-Rod thing could go on forever with the courts, etc. A-Rod has nothing to lose by continuing to fight. And, he has everything to gain by dragging it out as long as he can…

      Yep.

    17. Mr. October
      December 29th, 2013 | 8:54 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      One pitcher. One. LOL.

      $46 million for Igawa. $46 million. LOL.

    18. Evan3457
      December 29th, 2013 | 3:31 pm

      Mr. October wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      One pitcher. One. LOL.
      $46 million for Igawa. $46 million. LOL.

      Still one pitcher. One. LOL.

    19. McMillan
      January 3rd, 2014 | 12:22 pm

      One Japanese finesse pitcher under 5’11″ was enough. How many Japanese finesse pitchers have been signed to $50 million contracts, or had success at the Major League level, since Cashman’s coup in Dec., 2006? … And how many other great pitchers not named Mussina or Sabathia has Cashman developed, or acquired under the age of 40, in the last 17 years?

    20. Kamieniecki
      January 11th, 2014 | 12:30 pm

      How badly does Team Cashman, without a true no. 1 or no. 2 starter, need Tanaka to be an “A.L.C.S.-caliber team” again?

      From 1995-2013, the nos. 1-3 starters of all playoff teams have a cumulative E.R.A. of less than 3.60 in the A.L.D.S.; the nos. 4-5 starters have a cum. E.R.A. of more than 4.80 in the A.L.D.S. What is the cum. starting pitching E.R.A. of all winning teams (nos. 1-5 starters) from 1995-2013 in the A.L.D.S.? Lower than 3.60. Losing teams? Higher than 4.80.

      And Team Cashman’s 2014 bullpen is not what it was 1996-2013…

    21. Evan3457
      January 11th, 2014 | 3:46 pm

      McMillan wrote:

      One Japanese finesse pitcher under 5’11″ was enough. How many Japanese finesse pitchers have been signed to $50 million contracts, or had success at the Major League level…

      Well, if you’re going by velocity alone, i.e., avg FB under 90, then there’s Iwakuma of the Mariners, who had an excellent season in 2013 despite an average FB velocity of 89.5.

    22. Kamieniecki
      January 11th, 2014 | 4:58 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      From 1995-2013, the nos. 1-3 starters of all playoff teams have a cumulative E.R.A. of less than 3.60 in the A.L.D.S.;

      Correction: less than 3.80 in the A.L.D.S. (nos. 1 starters were less, and close to the average for winning teams). Nos. 1-3 starters have averaged better than one (1) earned run less than nos. 4-5 starters in the A.L.D.S., and Team Cashman might not have a no. 1 or no. 2 starter in Sabathia.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Well, if you’re going by velocity alone, i.e., avg FB under 90, then there’s Iwakuma of the Mariners, who had an excellent season in 2013 despite an average FB velocity of 89.5.

      @ Evan3457:
      What AAA-affiliate of the Seattle Mariners did the 6’3″ Iwakuma pitch for in 2013? And what was their record against the Scranton/Wilkes Barre Rail Riders, the team Brian Cashman’s last international free agent starting pitcher from Japan pitched almost his entire career for?

      And how did you come up with the 89.5 m.p.h. number – by averaging the velocity of every pitcher in the Mariner bullpen?

      http://waswatching.com/2010/03/30/the-javier-vazquez-question/

    23. Mr. October
      January 11th, 2014 | 5:18 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Correction: less than 3.80 in the A.L.D.S. (nos. 1 starters were less, and close to the average for winning teams). Nos. 1-3 starters have averaged better than one (1) earned run less than nos. 4-5 starters in the A.L.D.S., and Team Cashman might not have a no. 1 or no. 2 starter in Sabathia.

      Underscores the significance of pitching in the postseason, and the importance of signing Tanaka for this team; there is little, or no, statistical correlation between reg. season offensive statistics, such as OPS, and postseason WPCT.; starting pitching, on the other hand…

    24. PHMDen
      January 12th, 2014 | 2:26 pm

      I guess A-Rod came first – at least the decision on the arbitration of his suspension came first.
      Mr. October wrote:

      Underscores the significance of pitching in the postseason, and the importance of signing Tanaka for this team; there is little, or no, statistical correlation between reg. season offensive statistics, such as OPS, and postseason WPCT.; starting pitching, on the other hand…

      “… Run production as a whole hasn’t had much relationship with playoff success… Neither have any of the individual offensive metrics… There is a lot more to look at when it comes to pitching and defense, though. The the performance of the [bullpen as a whole is very strong] … [The factors] that have the most fundamental and direct relationship to playoff success are: [closer performance, starting pitcher strikeout rate, and defense]…” – Nate Silver and Dayn Perry

    25. Kamieniecki
      January 12th, 2014 | 5:09 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      … Prove to me that it’s the pitching, and not the hitting, that determines who wins [in the postseason]…

      PHMDen wrote:

      “… Run production as a whole hasn’t had much relationship with playoff success… Neither have any of the individual offensive metrics… There is a lot more to look at when it comes to pitching and defense, though. The the performance of the [bullpen as a whole is very strong] … [The factors] that have the most fundamental and direct relationship to playoff success are: [closer performance, starting pitcher strikeout rate, and defense]…” – Nate Silver and Dayn Perry

      @ PHMDen:
      As I’ve explained to a great baseball sage, Tanaka will have to be a true no. 1 for Team Cashman to have a chance to win a pennant…

      N.Y. Yankees Regular Season Nos. 1-3 Starting Pitchers
      Postseason Statistics*

      Team Michael
      The 1996-99 E.R.A.: 3.61; WPCT.: .778 (3 A.L. Pennants)
      The 2000-03 E.R.A.: 3.27; WPCT.: .574 (3 A.L. Pennants)
      Team Cashman**
      The 2004-07 E.R.A.: 5.66; WPCT.: .417 (0 A.L. Pennants)
      The 2009-12 E.R.A.: 3.25; WPCT.: .552 (1 A.L. Pennants)***

      *1997-2012 closer: Rivera.
      ** 1st or 2nd in A.L. O.P.S. from 2004-07;09-12.
      ***$161 million no. 1 starting pitcher signed in 2009, $82.5 million no. 2 SP signed in 2009, and no. 3 SP signed by G. Michael in 1991.
      @ Evan3457:
      The postseason is no different from the regular season, as the A.L. postseason has demonstrated from 1995-2013: the spread between nos. 1-3 starters and nos. 4-5 starters in terms of E.R.A. is substantial (although slightly less in the L.C.S.)… Without Tanaka, or a true no. 1 starter, this team can not win a pennant. One “magic formula” is starting pitching that can pitch to an E.R.A. of 3.30-3.50, closer performance, defense, etc… and it certainly helps to have hitters who can produce in October.

    26. PHMDen
      January 12th, 2014 | 6:41 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      … and it certainly helps to have hitters who can produce in October.

      @ Kamieniecki:
      Hitting that should cost closer to $70M, than $170M… It’ll be very interesting to see how Tanaka does in Pinstripes when they sign him – and I think they will.

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