• Let’s Be Honest About Hiroki Kuroda

    Posted by on January 31st, 2014 · Comments (9)

    The dude will be 39-years old this season, and, in his last 8 starts of 2013, he went 0-6 with an ERA of 6.56 (in 46.2 IP).  Worse, his opponents’ BA/OBP/SLG slash line over these starts was .316/.364/.551 (against 215 batters).

    Eight starts is one-quarter of a season, for those scoring at home.

    Oh, and, by the way, the guy has been pitching in this country for six years and has won more than 11 games in a season only twice.

    I mean…heck…even Greg Maddux was cooked by the time he was thirty-nine.

    Anyone expecting Kuroda to give the Yankees a solid season in 2014 is not exactly smoking the objective pipe.

    Comments on Let’s Be Honest About Hiroki Kuroda

    1. cgehring
      January 31st, 2014 | 10:37 am

      i kind of agree. i don’t trust Hiroki this year.

    2. ahrmon
      January 31st, 2014 | 2:18 pm

      Hey, Steve L…maybe you should just go ahead and add a “Sad Trombone” noise to your posts. Christ almighty you are a grumpy goose lately.

      Waaaaaaaay more to life than baseball, right? Buck up little camper!

    3. #15
      January 31st, 2014 | 2:30 pm

      I think Kuroda was the best pitcher on the staff for most of last year, and one of the best pitchers in the league for most of the year. Perhaps in the top 5 in the AL in the first 1/2 of the season. I’ll gladly take a repeat of 2013 from him, and 85-90% of last year is still pretty darn good. And, he didn’t do it with smoke and mirrors. He had velocity, location, movement and “stuff”. Everyone knows wins are a funky metric. Maybe if the bullpen isn’t being “over-Hughesed” every 5th day, i.e., having to carry the game from the 2nd or 3rd inning on, we can trim an inning or two off Kuroda’s outings here and there and keep him fresher for the back end of the season.

    4. Kamieniecki
      January 31st, 2014 | 8:54 pm

      #15 wrote:

      I’ll gladly take a repeat of 2013 from him…

      A repeat of 2013 might result in Cashman offering the 40-year-old Kuroda a fourth consecutive one-year contract in 2015 to be the team’s no. 2 or no. 3 starter again.

      #15 wrote:

      “over-Hughesed”

      #15 shoots… #15 scores!

    5. Evan3457
      February 1st, 2014 | 7:26 am

      Kuroda’s peripherals in 2013 were just as solid as the rest of his career. H/9, K/9, K/BB, HR/9 pretty much right on his career averages in MLB.

      As for the fact that he’s never won more than 11 games…

      2008: 39th out of 65 ERA qualifiers in the NL in runs support (as measured by RS/IP, which is the average number of runs scored while he was pitching per 9 innings pitched)
      2009: 19th out of 61.
      2010: 39th out of 63.
      2011: 38th out of 69.
      2012: 31st out of 51 in the AL (Sabathia was 7th, Hughes was 12th, Nova was 15th)
      2013: 64th out of 67. (Pettitte was 21st, Sabathia was 32nd, Nova was 34th).

      So in only one year of his six in MLB has he had decent run support.
      ==================================
      He might be finished. It’s possible.
      At his age, it can happen at any time.
      You might also be experiencing what is known as “recency bias”.

      On the other hand…

      Baseball Forcaster 2014 project Kuroda for 11-12, 3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and says:

      Seems he’s been pitching forever. Age hasn’t eroded his remarkably stable skill set; let your eyes wander down any BPI column and you’ll see little variance. Sure, DOM (K/9) is leaking slightly, but CMD (K/BB) has tightened. No discernable vL/vR splits. He avoids DISasters (starts with a PQS score of 0 or 1). With him, the past is prologue; pick a year and go with it.

      Baseball Prospectus 2014 projects Kuroda for 12-7, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and says:

      Unfazed by advancing age and changes in country, coast, league, and ballpark, Kuroda keeps delivering value; despite a $5 million raise, he was worth every penny, even after struggling over the final eight starts. The righty has never walked fewer than 5 or more than 6 percent of opposing batters, and since his rookie season, his K/BB has been on cruise control between 3.3 and 3.6…If he had made it to the States a little sooner, he’d be known as Japan’s best pitching export; a couple more carbon-copy seasons and he still might, at least until Yu Darvish takes over the title.

    6. Kamieniecki
      February 1st, 2014 | 2:36 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      You might also be experiencing what is known as “recency bias”.

      Or “age bias;” or no bias: Kuroda is almost 40.

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Baseball Forcaster (sic) 2014 project Kuroda for 11-12, 3.59 ERA

      Does this mean that Kuroda is projected to go 11-6 with a 2.77 E.R.A. from April to August in 2014, and 0-6 with a 6.90 E.R.A. from August to September in 2014, by “Baseball Forecaster?” Oh, and, actually, … “Forecaster” is spelled with two ‘e’s, not one.

    7. McMillan
      February 1st, 2014 | 3:28 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      He might be finished. It’s possible.

      If not, Cashman might be able to convince him to put off retirement for one more year, and sign him to a one-year contract for $17.5 million to pitch in 2015. After that, he might be finished. It’s possible. If not, Cashman might be able to convince him to put off retirement for one more year, and sign him to a one-year contract for $18.5 million to pitch in 2016. After that, he might be finished. It’s possible. If not, Cashman…

    8. Evan3457
      February 1st, 2014 | 5:50 pm

      Kamieniecki wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      You might also be experiencing what is known as “recency bias”.
      Or “age bias;” or no bias: Kuroda is almost 40.
      Evan3457 wrote:
      Baseball Forcaster (sic) 2014 project Kuroda for 11-12, 3.59 ERA
      Does this mean that Kuroda is projected to go 11-6 with a 2.77 E.R.A. from April to August in 2014, and 0-6 with a 6.90 E.R.A. from August to September in 2014, by “Baseball Forecaster?” Oh, and, actually, … “Forecaster” is spelled with two ‘e’s, not one.

      No spit, Sybil?
      What a tool you are.

    9. Evan3457
      February 1st, 2014 | 5:51 pm

      McMillan wrote:

      Evan3457 wrote:
      He might be finished. It’s possible.
      If not, Cashman might be able to convince him to put off retirement for one more year, and sign him to a one-year contract for $17.5 million to pitch in 2015. After that, he might be finished. It’s possible. If not, Cashman might be able to convince him to put off retirement for one more year, and sign him to a one-year contract for $18.5 million to pitch in 2016. After that, he might be finished. It’s possible. If not, Cashman…

      Well, I wouldn’t mind, if he continues to put up season of 4 WAR or better.

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