• My Great 2014 Yankees Prediction

    Posted by on March 26th, 2014 · Comments (18)

    At best, third place in the A.L. East – but missing the playoffs.

    At worst? I don’t think they will finish last. But, I think it’s possible that they could be closer to last place than they are to first place, in terms of games in standings…again, at the worst.

    Why? The pitching staff – both the rotation and the bullpen – is far from a proven thing. Their infield is a wreck. And, their outfield is flawed…given Gardner’s lack of power, Ellsbury’s injury risk, and Beltran’s wheels and lack of defense. (He makes Bobby Abreu look good in right.) Plus, at DH, Soriano gets eaten up by right-handed pitching.

    There’s no stud batter on this team. There’s no proven set-up man in the bullpen. There’s age and uncertainty in the rotation. And, who knows that Johnson, Jeter, Roberts and Tex are going to produce…or if any of them will be there for the whole season?

    Anyone who thinks this team is a playoff contender is dreaming.

    Comments on My Great 2014 Yankees Prediction

    1. Corey
      March 26th, 2014 | 12:35 pm

      Offtopic:

      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/cardinals-sign-david-aardsma.html

      I think it’s funny that Cashman gets bashed for moves like signing Aardsma, but I somehow doubt the Cardninals will get bashed for signing him.

    2. Raf
      March 26th, 2014 | 1:03 pm

      Injuries killed the Yanks last year, hopefully they’ll do a little better this year.

      @ Corey:
      It’s a reasonable signing. I had no issue with the Yanks signing Aardsma.

    3. Corey
      March 26th, 2014 | 1:04 pm

      @ Raf:
      I’m with you. But you know those around here who aren’t.

    4. #15
      March 26th, 2014 | 4:03 pm

      Count me as a dreamer then. I think…

      1)our starting staff… as a whole, is better, maybe much better, then average (if Pineda is even 85-90% back he may be the best #5 in the league) and they are all better than Phil Hughes, we admittedly lack the stud ace you’d want, especially in the playoffs. How CC negotiates this stage of his career will be a wildcard. We’ve seen enough of Tanaka-son to know he doesn’t stink. Our # 6 and # 7 starters (DP and AW) are well above average for those roles

      2)our infield… we have a real hole at 3rd base that I think they should try to fix. I’d rather have J-Nix out there than Nunez or Johnson… and that’s saying something. Jeter has looked servicable in the field, but I’ll admit his bat is clearly a question based on his Spring, Roberts still can contribute if healthy and the back-ups look fair to okay, even better if Ryan gets back soon. Tex’s glove will be a huge upgrade (as highly as he is regarded in the field, I think he’s underrated in that area) but his bat is still to be determined. Our catchers will out field and out produce our 2013 catchers by a wide margin.

      3) our outfield will be better than average on both sides of the ball.

      4) our bullpen… Mo will never be replaced. If D-Rob pitches to the level of his last couple of years, along with quality we have in the middle with Phelps and Warren et al, we’ll be better than average.

      5) Our starting 9 batters will hit for higher average and higher OPS than our starting 9 from ’13, by a lot.

      6) The Botox aren’t as good as they were last year, the BJ’s have more questions than us, the Rays could be come sellers if they are not setting the world on fire by June, and I don’t think B’More is as good as us.

      7) I always have liked having two switch hitters in the line up, now we have three… Tough to match up

      8) The combination of Ellsbury at the top and Gardy at the bottom will expose every weak catcher they face.

      Sum it all up… A wildcard spot is out of the question.

    5. #15
      March 26th, 2014 | 4:07 pm

      Correction…. A wildcard spot is NOT out of the question.

    6. redbug
      March 26th, 2014 | 5:59 pm

      @ #15:

      I’m feeling the same as #15.

    7. Mr. October
      March 26th, 2014 | 7:50 pm

      Injuries didn’t kill the Yanks last year…

      Years of mismanagement in the long-term, and a failed 2012-13 offseason program in the short-term, was responsible for a team that finished with a Pythagorean W-L of 79-83, or one that went 30-16 in one-run games and didn’t have the pitching to win in the postseason.

      ESPN today has the $204 million Yankees finishing with 85 wins, third behind the $163 million BoSox and the $77 million Rays in the AL East.

      http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview14/story/_/id/10578735/american-league-preview

      Team Cashman will probably win more than 85 games, but this team isn’t much more of a contender than the 2013 edition was for more than a wildcard spot; too many question marks… Unfortunately, ownership gave Cashman only $500 million to work with this offseason to compete in the East.

    8. Scout
      March 27th, 2014 | 7:40 am

      The oddsmakers and stats people have been predicitng 86-88 wins for the Yankees as the roster is now constructed, and that sounds about right. If we accept the higher end for the sake of argument, the team is on the border of play-off contention and mid-season acquisitions might make the difference between being in the play-offs or being on the outside. And this is where the lack of marketable talent in the upper minors could really hurt.

    9. Greg H.
      March 27th, 2014 | 9:55 am

      @ Scout:
      That, and it puts them in the zone of things go right/wrong either for them or other teams. Look at Texas this year, they already look like this year’s injury team. Anyone know what the oddsmakers had Boston at before last season began?

    10. March 27th, 2014 | 10:18 am

      Scout wrote:

      The oddsmakers and stats people have been predicitng 86-88 wins for the Yankees as the roster is now constructed, and that sounds about right.

      Ditto.

    11. Raf
      March 27th, 2014 | 1:47 pm
    12. Raf
      March 27th, 2014 | 1:48 pm
    13. Greg H.
      March 27th, 2014 | 3:09 pm

      @ Raf:
      Those 2013 predictions are pretty amusing. No one had the Sox winning much last year, but a lot went right for them with a whole new lineup. I see the Yanks competing for the division, and at least the wild card this year. What they’ve added feels more and more like it could come together as a diverse team with a lot of complimentary talent and a decent mix of younger players and veterans.

    14. Evan3457
      March 29th, 2014 | 3:18 am

      Advanced defensive metrics differ in their opinion of Beltran’s performance in right field.

      UZR had him last among 18 regular right fielders at -21 runs.
      BIS’ DRS had 13th among the 18 at -6 runs.
      RZR had him 7th among the 18 at .929, but 16th on plays out of zone.

      In his last season with the Yankees, 2008, Abreu was considerably worse under each measure:

      UZR: -28 runs
      DRS: -11 runs
      RZR: .876, with just over half the number of plays out of zone.

    15. Raf
      March 29th, 2014 | 9:04 am

      Greg H. wrote:

      Those 2013 predictions are pretty amusing.

      Check 2012′s
      http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview12/story/_/id/7746521/mlb-previewing-american-league-east-teams

    16. Mr. October
      March 29th, 2014 | 7:08 pm

      Greg H. wrote:

      @ Raf:

      Those 2013 predictions are pretty amusing. No one had the Sox winning much last year, but a lot went right for them with a whole new lineup.

      Three predictions for 2013

      “As we welcome a new year, ESPN Boston writers have checked their crystal balls and are making some bold predictions. Here are three for the Red Sox:

      1. The Sox will be a playoff team… General manager Ben Cherington has made solid additions to the roster… If the Red Sox can remain relatively healthy, they should have success and will contend in the postseason in 2013…

      2. The biggest factor for the Red Sox will be the starting rotation… Lester will rebound [and] return to form in 2013. As important as Lester’s contributions will be [Lackey's]…

      3. Ellsbury will rebound, then bolt. Boston fans should enjoy watching Ellsbury in a Red Sox uniform in 2013 because it will be his last…”

      http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/24297/three-predictions-for-2013

      Yeah… Those clowns at ESPN Boston were way off… And a lot went right for Boston in 2013 too, such as Buchholz’s injury, Bailey’s injury, Hanrahan’s injury… After spending $2.0-$2.50 billionfrom 2005-2014, all Yankees fans can reasonably expect or hope for is a chance for a wildcard spot in 2014, or meaningful baseball in August and September in 2014 and no chance at all of watching the future of the organization being called up from the minor leagues in September. That’s reasonable.

    17. Evan3457
      March 30th, 2014 | 10:52 pm

      Actually, the injuries to Bailey and Hanrahan did go RIGHT for the Red Sox; it’s not likely either of them would’ve been as dominant a closer as Uejara was, especially in the post-season.

    18. Mr. October
      March 31st, 2014 | 9:41 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Actually, the injuries to Bailey and Hanrahan did go RIGHT for the Red Sox; it’s not likely either of them would’ve been as dominant a closer as Uejara was, especially in the post-season.

      What went right for Boston was the moves Cherington made in the offseason, when he went 7-7 with Victorino, Napoli, Uehara, Drew, Gomes, Dempster, and Ross, signing all of them for $75 million less than the amount of money spent on Tanaka in 2014. And it was not bad luck that Cashman went 0-for-the 2012-13 offseason, either…

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