• For Some Reason Yankees Can Only Hit At Home

    Posted by on June 29th, 2015 · Comments (15)

    The splits tell the story. Stats are current through June 28th.

    Split PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
    Home 1395 202 349 69 5 62 194 119 254 .282 .350 .496 .846 .306
    Away 1559 161 329 64 5 40 154 127 296 .235 .302 .374 .676 .269
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 6/29/2015.

    .

    Holy ’51 Giants, Batman.

    Comments on For Some Reason Yankees Can Only Hit At Home

    1. June 29th, 2015 | 8:25 am

      Basically, they hit HRs at home like an elite slugger. But, on the road, their power equates to that of a slap hitting SS. The two biggest culprits are McCann and A-Rod. At Yankee Stadium, they hit like Hall of Famers. On the road, they are TERRIBLE.

    2. KPOcala
      June 29th, 2015 | 12:04 pm

      To borrow a line from, “On Golden Pond”, “Gooooooooooooood gawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwd”!

    3. Evan3457
      June 29th, 2015 | 5:56 pm

      There’s 22 missing HRs on the road, but there’s also about 40 missing singles.

    4. KPOcala
      June 30th, 2015 | 1:43 am

      BTW, as of 6/30/15 Cespedes has a WAR over Gardner of 3.0 v 2.9. Could someone please explain the “hows” of this silliness?

    5. Evan3457
      July 1st, 2015 | 9:42 am

      KPOcala wrote:

      BTW, as of 6/30/15 Cespedes has a WAR over Gardner of 3.0 v 2.9. Could someone please explain the “hows” of this silliness?

      Because they (BRef) credits Cespedes as being a +8 run left fielder, whereas they credit Gardner a -8 runs defensive outfielder in left and center, using their Rtot defensive metric.

      Fangraphs has Gardner at -4 runs and Cespedes at +3 runs, so it has Gardner at 2.7 fWAR and Cespedes at 2.4.

    6. KPOcala
      July 1st, 2015 | 6:08 pm

      @ Evan3457:WAR=”Useless”. Gardner blows him away offensively, plays terrific CF, and/or has an excellent CFer, Ellsbury which hurts his LF numbers. So in at Least this case, it’s apples and oranges. Again, the offense isn’t even close.

    7. Evan3457
      July 1st, 2015 | 11:34 pm

      KPOcala wrote:

      @ Evan3457:WAR=”Useless”. Gardner blows him away offensively, plays terrific CF, and/or has an excellent CFer, Ellsbury which hurts his LF numbers. So in at Least this case, it’s apples and oranges. Again, the offense isn’t even close.

      Well, you asked why WAR had Cespides ahead of Gardner, and I told you. Not saying I agree, but that’s what the numbers say.

    8. KPOcala
      July 2nd, 2015 | 12:32 pm

      @ Evan3457:Evan you misunderstand me, a bit. I’m not killing the messenger, but I AM shooting at the “Smug SABR Crowd”. I’m totally ‘with’ analytics, but when they are easily seen to be wrong, then they obviously need ‘adjustments’. The “nouveau stiff necks” need a dose of humility.

    9. Evan3457
      July 4th, 2015 | 12:57 am

      The Yankees’ hitting at home turned out OK last night. 🙂

    10. Evan3457
      July 4th, 2015 | 8:54 pm

      44-37 at mid-season after another hard fought win. That’s a pace of eleventy-six, twiddledee-eight oh, uhhh…88-74. Run differential is +25, which is 6th in the AL and 10th in MLB. Baseball Reference’s SRS has them 5th in the AL and 7th in MLB through 80 games. Baseball Prospectus’ 3rd-order WPCT has them 5th in the AL and 9th in MLB. Fangraphs projected standings has them finishing the season at 86-76, with only the Astros in the AL projecting to a better record, along with four other NL teams.

      Will they hold up? I dunno. But I’ll watch and see.

    11. KPOcala
      July 5th, 2015 | 1:58 am

      For some reason, they Yankees can only beat “good teams”. Strange days? Nah, “End of Days”, just as we are an out away from #29 😉

    12. Evan3457
      July 5th, 2015 | 5:00 am

      In Fangraphs Playoff Odds charts, the Yanks are currently figured to have a 66% chance to make the post-season, a 57% chance to win the division. I suppose this is as much due to the fact that there appears to be no powerful rival within the division at this moment, as it is to their own play in the 1st half.

      It also says they have a 31% chance of winning the Divisional Series and making it to the ALCS, a 17% chance of winning the ALCS and making it to the World Series, and a 9% chance of winning the World Series. The last two are the highest such percentages in the entire AL, and only the Dodgers and the Nats (but not the Cards!) have a higher chance to win the World Series.

      I’m not sure I believe any of that; I just thought I’d mention it. Also, those odds are higher than they were 3 days ago, obviously.

      The playoff and other odds are lower in Baseball Prospectus’ simulation, which is just as valid, really:

      60% to make the post-season; 50% to win the division, 6.5% to win the World Series, which is 3rd best in the AL, and 6th best in MLB (meaning the Yanks are the lowest ranked of the 6 divisional leaders, which is fair, as the have the lowest winning percentage of any of the 6).

      =============================================
      What all these numbers are saying is that in the first half of the season, the Yanks have been between the 6th and 10th best team in all of MLB, and roughly the 3rd best team in the AL.

      What they’re not saying is whether or not they can keep this up, or do better in the 2nd half. As for that, all I can do is shrug.

    13. KPOcala
      July 5th, 2015 | 10:41 am

      I’m a strong believer (talent being more or less equal), that the teams who make and win championships are the ones where the players all get hot at the same time. Rarely are teams the juggernauts that writers like to “analyse after the fact”. The Yankees running into the Angels’ buzzsaw back in ’02 (I believe), the “ugh”, Red Sox, and the Marlins. The Yankees had some of that go Their way against the Braves teams. If you were to rewatch those great Yankee teams of the nineties, and watch how many balls they hit were “just” past someone’s glove, the lucky bounces, Pettite’s amazing concentration in some games, well it goes on and on. The ’98 team could have gone head to head with any team, anytime, although they probably had more “cumulative talent” in some teams that DIDN’T win the WS. This is just train of thought stuff, I didn’t go back and research anything, but I’m curious if anyone felt the same, or think I’m a complete idiot. Which is “OK” 😉

    14. Evan3457
      July 5th, 2015 | 12:35 pm

      @ KPOcala:
      I argued extensively, and ad nauseum, with a certain party, that luck/random chance plays a role in who wins a short series. Even in the post-season.

      So I agree with you, even if others don’t.

    15. KPOcala
      July 5th, 2015 | 11:45 pm

      @ Evan3457:Funny, even Bill James admitted that when any given stat doesn’t pass the “sniff test” long enough, then the stat becomes something that has to be re-evaluated, or discarded. My two pet peeves (actually three) are the notions that the pitcher has no control on where the ball is hit once it leaves his hand! Really.?! The same goes for the batted ball (screams loudly). And finally, how that RBIs are a “meaningless stat”. This final “peeve” I have to address here and now. I’ll agree that no, if one player has 120 rbis versus 140, you can’t go by that because OF THE OTHER HITTERS, NOT because of ‘where you hit’. You hit at an advantageous slot because you can Drive the ball, you can elevate the ball, and years back, you played it smart and choked-up on the bat with two strikes, and got the man the hell in! In his 1974 book, “Reggie”, he bragged that he wouldn’t choke up on the bat because, briefly, the money was in the HR numbers. This has actually had a profound effect on the power hitters, and has caused a paradigm shift in the way the game is played. So naturally Mr. Peabody, Keith Law is a big proponent of the “study” and its’ rationale. Nobody is going to convince me that a power hitter (possessing superior hand-eye coordination) can’t choke the hell out of the bat, and flip one over a drawn-in infield. There are other examples, but Evan, you could have written this as well, or better than I just did. I’ve been into the whole SABR thing for over thirty-five years, and I love it (I notice that Earl Weaver, really the father of SABR never get’s his due), but it has become a Religion where dissidents go to die. Oh, and Girardi’s keep their jobs forever because they always have the “numbers” book……………… BTW, Girardi IS great with the bullpen work, over the course of a season.

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