• 96 In 18

    Posted by on February 17th, 2018 · Comments (5)

    PECOTA has the Yankees winning 96 games this season. And, all things considered, I think that is a reasonable projection.

    Of course, things can always go wrong. Stanton could miss 50 or more games with an injury. Judge could have a sophomore jinx. Tanaka’s elbow could blow out. Bird could prove to be injury prone. There’s probably 20 things that COULD go wrong. But, if MOST things do go well, this Yankees team should win more than 95 games this season.

    The last time I was “this excited” about a Yankees team heading into a season was probably Spring Training of 2001.

    Actually, that 2001 season started a helluva six year run for the Yankees where they were a beast and they really got fat on some weak teams – averaging 98.7 wins a season. Yes, almost 99 wins a year for 6 years! But, of course, there were no rings during that incredible run. And, that’s why most don’t even think about it.


    96 in 2018 is a fair expectation. Anything less than 94 is a failure. Maybe it could be closer to 100? But, 96 has a nice…well…let’s hope it has a ring to it.

    Comments on 96 In 18

    1. EHawk
      February 17th, 2018 | 11:22 pm
    2. February 18th, 2018 | 12:06 pm

      It will be A-Rod Jr. No thanks. Pass.

    3. Raf
      February 18th, 2018 | 10:04 pm

      Why the optimism in 01, Steve? Mussina? I don’t think there were that many changes from the 2000 team.

    4. Evan3457
      February 19th, 2018 | 1:45 pm

      PRaf wrote:

      Why the optimism in 01, Steve? Mussina? I don’t think there were that many changes from the 2000 team.

      Probably because they had just won three titles in a row, and Steve saw no reason they couldn’t win a fourth.


      Still say this team is being slightly overrated, and a regression to the mean is possible, if not likely for several key players:

      1. It’s possible Judge just had his career year.
      2. Stanton gets hurt, some no fault of his, others more common injuries.
      3. It’s possible Didi just had his career year.
      4. It’s possible that Severino will decline from last season, and very possible he has a significant arm injury.
      5. CC might get old again overnight.
      6. If Sanchez suffers a serious injury, that blows a hole in the boat below the waterline.
      7. Green is very unlikely to have another year like 2017.
      and although it’s said every year, and hasn’t come to pass, yet
      8. Tanaka elbow might finally blow out.

      Against that, you might get:
      1. A whole year of Bird, healthy.
      2. Torres and Andujar contributing significantly.
      3. A whole year of Robertson, Kahnle and Gray, although Kahnle might not pitch as well, and Gray might be particularly vulnerable to the difference between the ballpark in Oakland and the launching pad known as Yankee Stadium III.
      4. Montgomery might be better for the whole year.
      5. Betances might get back to where he was before last year.

      I’d put the range of results not at 96 wins, but 88-98 wind. Plexiglass Principle says that when a team takes a big step forward (and the 2017 Yankees did take a big step forward in run differential, if not in actual wins, which actually improved by just 7 wins), they’re very likely to take a smaller step backwards the next year. I wouldn’t bet against Plexiglass.

    5. February 19th, 2018 | 3:45 pm

      Raf wrote:

      Why the optimism in 01, Steve? Mussina? I don’t think there were that many changes from the 2000 team.

      Coming off 3 rings in a row. and the starting staff was really deep heading into the season.

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