WasWatching.com » Forecasts’09

Cody Ransom (2009)

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 04:00:49 +0000

Jumpin’ Cody Ransom is no kid – as he turned age 33 back on February 17th of this year. Last season, in 423 At Bats in Triple-A, Cody had 22 homers along with a BA/OBP/SLG line of .255/.338/.482 (in 116 games). And, in his major league career, to date, Ransom has a BA/OBP/SLG line of .251/.348/.432 in 183 At Bats.

When I look at all this, it makes me want to suggest…if you gave Cody Ransom a full-time job in the big leagues, this season, where he got close to 600 At Bats, it would not shock me to see him hit close to 20 homers with an On Base Average around .330…a season like one David Bell had in 2002 or Mike Lowell had in 2006.

Or, in other words, not a season that would be a huge offensive plus – but also one that would not kill you either.

Melky Cabrera 2009

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 02:41:54 +0000

Good news: Leche is still young. Bad news: Melky has shown no ability to hit for power in the big leagues and his ability to consistently reach base is in serious question. Further, while Cabrera’s defensive ability would suggest that he could stick in 2009 as a 4th outfielder, due to his age it would be better that Cabrera played everyday in Triple-A (rather than ride the pines in the Bronx)…except for one thing: He’s out of options.

Therefore, at the end of the day, Melky Cabrera will either be the Yankees starting center fielder this season, or, he will be on their big league bench, or, he will be playing for someone else, other than the Yankees, in the majors at some point this year.

Jose Molina 2009

Steve Lombardi — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 03:31:13 +0000

Along with Chad Moeller, who also played for the Yankees in 2008, Jose Molina is probably the worst hitting back-up catchers to play semi-regularly in the big leagues since 1973. However, Molina’s defensive ability (and the fact that he’s under contract for 2009) assure him a role as New York’s back-up catcher in 2009.

In any event, at the end of the day, Jose Molina is just another member of the Modern Day Bad Yankees Back-up Catcher Club along with Joel Skinner, Juan Espino, Mark Salas, Wil Nieves, Kelly Stinnett, John Flaherty, Chris Widger, Todd Greene, Chris Turner, Barry Foote, Johnny Oates and Fran Healy…

Alex Rodriguez 2009

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 01:52:25 +0000

Since 2000, A-Rod has never posted an On-base Average below .375 or a Slugging Percentage below .512. And, since 2000, his overall OPS is .992 (in 6,233 PA). Expect another season from Rodriguez with an OPS somewhere in the 900’s. There may be debate over the game conditions under which they are derived, but, the numbers are always there for Alex.

The only thing that can stop him this season would be injury and/or a mental breakdown…or a positive PED test.

Derek Jeter 2009

Steve Lombardi — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 04:06:53 +0000

Has it really been six weeks since I last left off with the 2009 Forecast Series? Yikes. Well, there’s just a few player left…so, let’s pick it up again and finish this off…and who better to start again with than Jeter?

Over his first 38 games in 2008, Derek Jeter’s OPS was .778. In his 39th game last season, Derek was hit on the hand by a pitch from Daniel Cabrera. Over his next 21 games, Jeter’s OPS was .563 (in 96 PA). From that point on, over his last 90 games, Jeter had an OPS of .815 (in 403 PA). Something tells me that Jeter will be Jeter in 2009 – and he should post better numbers this year, barring injury, than he did in 2008.

Joba Chamberlain 2009

Steve Lombardi — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 15:56:23 +0000

Getting back to the forecast series, here’s Joba!

Chamberlain’s skill level is high. However, his role and health are questionable – at least to me, at this point. At the end of 2008, it was suggested his shoulder may not handle the burden of starting. While starting is his preference, the team’s biggest need, and where he would offer great value, seeing Joba used out of the bullpen in 2009 – setting up Mariano Rivera – would not shock me.

And, yes, I know…everything out of the Yankees camp says that Joba will be a starter in 2009. But, then again, that’s what the Red Sox said about Jonathan Papelbon prior to the 2007 season as well. Things have a way of changing in Spring Training…sometimes…

Ian Kennedy 2009

Steve Lombardi — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:24:51 +0000

The 21st overall pick in the 2006 draft, Ian Kennedy found himself in the majors the next season. He has shown great skill in the minors. However, in 2008, Kennedy was brutal in New York – showing poor command of average stuff. Further, some believe the Yankees have soured on his attitude. Ian’s a long-shot to have a role with the Yankees in 2009 (at this point). And, if the Yankees sign another free agent starter this off-season, that shot will get even longer.

Hideki Matsui 2009

Steve Lombardi — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:21:31 +0000

It seems as if years of playing on artificial turf and never missing a game in Japan have caught up with Hideki Matsui – as he’s missed huge chunks of the season in two of the last three years. When healthy, Godzilla can still hit. And, if healthy, he should be the Yankees primary D.H. in 2009. But, can Matsui stay healthy?

If you told me Hideki was going to play less than 130 games for the Yankees in 2009, I wouldn’t fight you too hard over it.

Alfredo Aceves 2009

Steve Lombardi — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:44:39 +0000

Alfredo Aceves pitched in the Mexican League for six seasons before signing with New York in 2008. In the 30 innings that he pitched for the Yankees, his batting average allowed on balls in play was .233 (facing 120 batters). This suggests an element of luck associated to his pitching results. Still, he’s a candidate for the back-end of the Yankees rotation in 2009.

But, who is he? Is he the next Francisco Cordova? Or, is he the next Jose Silva? Or, maybe he’s something in between, like the next Elmer Dessens?

If the Yankees are smart, they won’t count on Aceves at all in 2009. And, then, if he’s good, it’s a bonus. It would be stupid to count/hope on him and then find out that he’s the latest Hector Fajardo…

Phil Hughes 2009

Steve Lombardi — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 14:50:19 +0000

In his few major league appearances, left-handed batters have fashioned an OPS of .876 against Phil Hughes (in 220 plate appearances). Reportedly, Hughes has been working on a cutter to address this situation.

And, this makes sense. Left-handed batters can handle a fastball and a curve from right-handed pitchers (which is what Hughes mainly throws). After all, this is why batters learn to switch-hit – so that they can look at the curve from the “opposite” side of the pitcher. Further, for a right-handed pitcher, the cutter is the perfect pitch (when thrown correctly) to attack left-handed batters. (See: Rivera, Mariano.)

So, how’s the cutter coming along? Well, in the Arizona Fall League this off-season, Hughes did an excellent job of not allowing hits to any type of batter (albeit righties or lefties). However, in terms of runs allowed, in the AFL, his ERA against RH-batters was 2.37 whereas his ERA against LH-batters was 4.09. This suggests that, while lefties were not getting many hits against Hughes, they were reaching base and the hits that they did get were producing runs. This also suggests that Hughes’ cutter (in addition to his overall ability to effectively pitch against lefties) still needs some work.

According to the Yankees, Hughes is a candidate for the last spot in their rotation. However, it would be at the back end of the rotation and he must earn it during the spring. According to me, Hughes better show this spring that he can handle left-handed batters. If not, he should start the season at Triple-A and stay there until he proves that he can effectively pitch to all types of batters.