The following was sent to me via email yesterday by the folks at ACTA Sports -

What are the odds that a player will do better than he did the previous year? In the recently-released Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, baseball guru Bill James explains his new “Strong Seasons Leading Index,” a methodology that tries to round up as many indicators as possible and produce a list of hitters who are most likely—and least likely—to improve on their 2009 seasons.

“Age is the most obvious indicator of likely movement,” James says in his article. “We also know that players tend to move back to their historical norms, so we look at last year’s On-base Plus Slugging percentage compared to his career OPS. We also factor in a player’s batting average on balls in play, his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his speed before distilling all this into a single number that indicates how likely a player is to have a strong season in the coming year.”

The article in its entirety is available here. James scores each player out of a possible 38 points. A score of 24 or higher indicates a better-than 50% chance the player will sustain or improve the following season; 23 points or less makes it increasingly unlikely the player will top last year’s numbers.

Here are the top 10 players most likely to sustain or improve in 2010, along with their Strong Seasons Leading Index score:

Player  	2010 Team  		Score
Dioner Navarro  Tampa Bay Rays  	26
Chris B. Young  Arizona Diamondbacks    25
J.J. Hardy  	Minnesota Twins  	25
Russell Martin  Los Angeles Dodgers  	24
Grady Sizemore  Cleveland Indians  	24
Dustin Pedroia  Boston Red Sox  	23
James Loney  	Los Angeles Dodgers  	23
Ian Kinsler  	Texas Rangers  		23
B.J. Upton  	Tampa Bay Rays  	23
Nate McLouth  	Atlanta Braves  	23

Here are the 10 players least likely to sustain or improve in 2010, along with their Strong Seasons Leading Index score:

Player  	2010 Team  		Score
Jorge Posada  	New York Yankees  	8
Matt Diaz  	Atlanta Braves  	9
Craig Counsell  Free Agent  		9
Russell Branyan Free Agent  		11
Jason Bartlett  Tampa Bay Rays  	11
Scott Podsednik Free Agent  		11
Derrek Lee  	Chicago Cubs  		11
Kendry Morales  LA Angels of Anaheim  	11
Ichiro Suzuki   Seattle Mariners  	11
Rajai Davis  	Oakland Athletics  	12

I’m reading The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 now and will have a review on it soon. But, in the interim, this is an interesting study. And, as a tease, I’ll also have a study coming out within the next few days on Posada and his future with the Yankees.

With some help via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, let’s look at Johnny Damon’s career as a member of the Boston Red Sox and his New York Yankees career, to date:

First, his time in Boston:

YEAR	TEAM	  RC	RCAA  OWP  RC/G	 BPA    PA
2002	Red Sox	  107	24   .615  6.24	 .526   702
2003	Red Sox    93	 2   .512  5.40	 .490   690
2004	Red Sox	  116	25   .607  6.94	 .537   702
2005	Red Sox	  107	26   .624  6.54	 .496   688
TOTALS	          423	77   .591  6.27	 .512  2782

World Series Rings: 1
Signature Post-Season Moment:
2nd inning Grand Slam on 10/20/04 in Game 7 of 2004 ALCS

Next, here’s Damon’s time in New York (so far):

YEAR	TEAM	   RC	RCAA  OWP  RC/G	 BPA	PA
2006	Yankees	  108	26   .624  6.55	 .550	671
2007	Yankees	   82	 5   .527  5.54	 .495	605
2008	Yankees	  101	25   .629  6.75	 .541	623
2009	Yankees	  102	27   .636  6.77	 .553	626
TOTALS		  393	83   .607  6.41	 .535  2525

World Series Rings: 1
Signature Post-Season Moment:
9th inning “Double Steal” on 11/1/09 in Game 4 of 2009 World Series

The numbers are pretty close here. In slightly less PA as a member of the Yankees, Damon has posted slightly better numbers in terms of RCAA, OWP, RC/G, and BPA (compared to when he was a member of the Red Sox). And, Johnny has one ring with each team – where he had a big post-season moment contributing towards it.

On the whole, I would say that Johnny Damon’s “time” in New York was just as good as it was while he was in Boston. His production was the same, and, in each stop, he was on one World Series championship team (during the four years he was there).

So, when you retrospectively think “Johnny Damon,” and assuming you don’t consider him to be a “Kansas City Royal” or “Oakland Athletic” (although I doubt anyone who consider the latter), should you first see him as a “Red Sox” or as a “Yankee”? Perhaps it depends on which side of the Boston/New York fence that you sit on? But, in any event, you cannot say that Damon’s career in Boston was better than it was (through 2009) in New York.

Johnny Damon’s “mark” in both towns was pretty much exactly the same.

~~~

Not sure what the baseball stats used in this feature are?

Continue reading »

Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, it’s:

2002-2009
Leaders in OWP, with PLATE APPEARANCES >= 4000
HIT BY PITCHES displayed only–not a sorting criteria

OWP                             OWP      HBP      PA
1    Albert Pujols              .781       60     5406
2    Manny Ramirez              .734       58     4722
3    Alex Rodriguez             .716      102     5364
4    Lance Berkman              .713       47     5143
5    Chipper Jones              .708       10     4524
6    Jim Thome                  .697       29     4353
7    Todd Helton                .690       30     5016
8    David Ortiz                .688       23     4828
9    Jason Giambi               .685      116     4052
10   Vladimir Guerrero          .676       49     4782

Pitchers are more than happy to get inside on A-Rod, and hit him, if that’s result, than they are when facing other great sluggers like Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez or Lance Berkman. Why do you think that is?

Go ask Roger Clemens about Game 4 of the 2000 American League Championship Series, and he’ll tell you…

Pitchers know that you can get inside A-Rod’s head. And, many of them probably don’t respect him all that much, as a person. So, it’s a perfect storm, of sorts.

Alex Rodriguez should be used to getting peppered with pitches by now. It’s what pitchers do to him. Why would this change just because we’re now in the World Series?

Seems like Mark Teixeira’s defensive value to the Yankees this season is a hot topic these days.

Via John Dewan -

In 2008 the Yankees were the second-worst defensive team in baseball based on Defensive Runs Saved. Their defense cost them 38 runs. Only the Royals were worse with 42 lost runs defensively.

In 2009 the Yankees improved dramatically defensively. By becoming an average defense overall (with 2 runs saved as a team overall), they improved by 40 runs. Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs represents one win, that’s a four-win improvement due to their defense.

Where was the improvement? Most Yankee fans can pretty much guess: first base. Mark Teixeira stabilized the Yanks’ infield defense. In 2008, Yankee first basemen cost the team 18 runs overall. This year, even in a down year for Teixeira, they improved by 19 runs to one run saved at first base.

And, via Sean Forman -

…Ryan Howard allowed 1.4 fewer runs than the average first baseman because of his defense, while Mark Teixeira allowed 2.4 runs more. This flies in the face of widely held perceptions of the two players — Teixeira is a multiple Gold Glove winner and Howard is, well, not. Howard has improved drastically this year and Teixeira has regressed from previous high levels. Three runs’ difference is small, and Teixeira was much better than Howard last year, so I’m going to chalk this season’s performance up to random variation and an off year for Teixeira defensively (just as off years happen with the bat, they happen with the glove too). About the throwing, the Phillies were second to last with only 12 first baseman assists to second base (the Cardinals led with 38), but the Yankees managed only two more with 14.

Me? I just know that, to date, Tex’s post-season offensive contribution this year looks like this:

Year   Series Opp G PA R H 2B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
2009     ALDS MIN 3 13 3 2  0  1   1  1  1 .167 .231 .417
2009     ALCS LAA 6 31 2 6  1  0   4  3  8 .222 .290 .259
2009       WS PHI 1  4 0 0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000 .000

And, it would be nice to see him start to hit a little bit…before this World Series is over…no matter if he’s great with the glove or not…

Funny, I thought have a “hot” A-Rod back in the line-up was the spark that got Tex going this season. Well, in October, not so much, huh?

There’s only been two post-season games ever, in the history of the game, where a team has used 8+ pitchers in a contest that was 13-innings or less and where their team won:

Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS between the Yankees and Twins, and,

Game 2 of the 2009 ALCS between the Yankees and Angels.

There have been seven post-season games in baseball history where a team used 8+ pitchers in a game of 13 innings or less where their team lost.

Thanks to by buddy, Rob the Twins Fan, for the heads-up on this stat. And, thanks to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia for running it for me…

1947-2009
RIGHT HANDED HITTERS
PLATE APPEARANCES >= 5000
Highest BA vs. League Average

AVERAGE                         DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     PA
1    Albert Pujols              .065     .334     .269     6082
2    Kirby Puckett              .055     .318     .263     7831
3    Roberto Clemente           .054     .317     .263    10212
4    Vladimir Guerrero          .051     .321     .270     7826
5    Derek Jeter                .047     .317     .271     9809
6    George Kell                .045     .313     .268     5788
7    Edgar Martinez             .043     .312     .268     8672
8    Manny Ramirez              .042     .313     .271     9437
9    Nomar Garciaparra          .042     .313     .271     6116
10   Jackie Robinson            .042     .311     .269     5802

Interesting to see where Jeter lists among the greatest batting right-handed batters, in terms of batting average, since baseball integrated.

Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com fame has a guest feature at “Bats” today. It’s a good read. Sean says the Yankees beat Father Time this season and should win the ALCS in six games. Given that the Yanks are somewhat long in the tooth, and have avoided the curses of aging this season, they better win the ALCS…because this might be their last shot at a World Series for a while.

Yes, New York does have some younger players (like Cano, Gardner, and Cabrera) and they have some prospects in the pipeline. But, until we see those prospects deliver at the big league level and know that guys like Cano are not going to slip in the near future, this team is driven by guys like Jeter, A-Rod and Posada…who are not getting any younger.

An e-mail came in to WasWatching.com HQ today from a “reader” that brought cause for some further analysis. I say “reader” – and not “fan” – since the e-mail started off by calling me a Yankees-hater, and some other less than sweet things, because I’ve been critical (my word, not theirs) of Brian Cashman’s work as Yankees G.M.

Now, that aside, in attempt to support their “presentation,” the author of the e-mail claimed that Cashman, this season, has built the “best pitching staff [in New York] since 2003.” And, that remark got my attention.

Why? Simple…I wanted to know if it was true or not. And, this is what I found:

Number of “Quality Starts” -
2009 Yankees: 76
2003 Yankees: 96
Winner: 2003 Yankees

Number of Starting Pitchers with 200+ IP -
2009 Yankees: 2
2003 Yankees: 4
Winner: 2003 Yankees

Number of Pitchers with “RSAA > 0 and INNINGS PITCHED >= 50″ -
via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia…

2003 Yankees                    RSAA        IP
1    Mike Mussina                 23       214.2
2    Mariano Rivera               21        70.2
T3   Chris Hammond                10        63
T3   Roger Clemens                10       211.2
T5   Andy Pettitte                 8       208.1
T5   Jose Contreras                8        71
7    David Wells                   5       213
8    Antonio Osuna                 3        50.2

2009 Yankees                    RSAA       IP
1    C.C. Sabathia                26      230
2    Mariano Rivera               19       66.1
3    Phil Hughes                  13       86
T4   Alfredo Aceves                8       84
T4   A.J. Burnett                  8      207
6    Andy Pettitte                 5      194.2

 
Winner: 2003 Yankees

I could keep going…but the answer will keep being the same: The pitching staff of the 2009 Yankees is nowhere close to being as good as the pitching staff of the 2003 Yankees.

Of course, this leads to the question: Where does this current Yankees pitching staff sit – compared to other recent Yankees pitching staffs? To address that, I returned to the CBE which provided this leader board:

TEAM                          YEAR    RSAA      IP
1    Yankees                  1998      102   1456.2
2    Yankees                  1997       78   1467.2
3    Yankees                  2002       76   1452
4    Yankees                  2001       71   1451.1
5    Yankees                  1996       60   1440
6    Yankees                  2000       54   1424.1
7    Yankees                  2003       50   1462
8    Yankees                  1999       40   1439.1
9    Yankees                  2007       30   1446
10   Yankees                  2008       28   1441.2
11   Yankees                  2009       19   1450
12   Yankees                  2005      -11   1430.2
13   Yankees                  2006      -14   1443.2
14   Yankees                  2004      -41   1443.2

It’s clear: This current pitching staff, built by Cashman, is better than the 2004-2005-2006 disaster pitching staffs built by Brian Cashman. But, this year’s model is not as good as the Yankees staffs from the two seasons before it (2008 and 2007) – in terms of saving runs above average. And, it’s not nearly as good as those 1996-2003 pitching staffs featured in Yankeeland.

The “reader” did not share their basis for this claim that Cashman has built the “best pitching staff [in New York] since 2003.” Maybe they made it up? But, anyone who wants to make that claim is ignoring the stats and the facts and just blowing nonsense out their pie hole.

In any event, thanks for the e-mail – as it helped establish another reason why those who want to credit Brian Cashman for a job well-done this season are just pushing hype.

This season, through the Yankees first 161 games in 2009, when Johnny Damon reaches base two times or more in a game, New York’s record is 52-21.

And, when Damon reaches base one time or less in a game, the Yankees record is 38-31.

Using the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, I decided to look at the up-to-date stats this season for all big league teams in terms of their team RSAA. Here’s that list:

Rk	TEAM		RSAA
1	Giants		118
2	Cubs		108
3	Rockies		81
4	Dodgers		76
5	Mariners	73
6	Braves		65
7	White Sox	62
8	Cardinals	60
9	Red Sox		39
10	Marlins		34
10	Rangers		34
12	Tigers		30
13	Diamondbacks	24
14	Phillies	20
14	Twins		20
16	A's		19
17	Yankees		16
18	Rays		14
19	Angels		0
20	Royals		-3
21	Reds		-8
22	Blue Jays	-23
23	Pirates		-48
24	Mets		-63
25	Astros		-83
26	Orioles		-99
27	Padres		-119
28	Indians		-133
29	Brewers		-135
30	Nationals	-136

As you can see, the Yankees do not rank well here, in terms of team RSAA, placing 17th overall in the majors and 8th overall in the A.L. (just a tick ahead of 9th). So, how about the pitchers on the Yankees, how do they currently rank in RSAA (through last night’s game)? Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, here are those numbers:

PITCHER	 	RSAA	  IP	 H/9 IP	  ERA     SO/BB
C.C. Sabathia	26	230.0	1.54	  1.10     0.92
Mariano Rivera	19	65.1	2.63	  2.67     3.89
Phil Hughes	13	85.2	2.10	  1.42     1.37
A.J. Burnett	7	202.0	0.96	  0.36     -.02
Alfredo Aceves	7	81.2	1.64	  0.83     2.10
Andy Pettitte	6	190.1	0.40	  0.35     0.02
David Robertson	5	42.2	1.65	  1.09     0.67
Chad Gaudin	4	40.2	0.39	  0.92     -.42
Brian Bruney	2	39.0	0.94	  0.54     -.46
Josh Towers	1	5.1	-0.88	  1.09     -.02
Mark Melancon	1	16.1	2.08	  0.61    -1.02
Ian Kennedy	0	1.0	9.24	  4.46    -1.52
Nick Swisher	0	1.0	0.24	  4.46    -1.02
Michael Dunn	-1	4.0	2.49	 -2.29    -1.02
Phil Coke	-1	59.1	2.57	  -.09     0.38
Brett Tomko	-2	20.2	0.97	  -.76     -.45
Edwar Ramirez	-3	22.0	-0.98	 -1.26     -.80
Jo. Albaladejo	-3	34.1	-1.50	  -.78     -.71
Jose Veras	-4	25.2	1.18	 -1.50     -.74
J.Chamberlain	-7	156.1	-0.37	  -.32     -.29
Damaso Marte	-7	13.1	-0.88	 -4.99     0.14
An. Claggett	-9	2.2	-27.88	-29.29    -1.27
Sergio Mitre	-14	51.2	-3.12	 -2.33     0.44
Chien-Ming Wang	-24	42.0	-4.90	 -5.18     -.50

 Note:
H/9 IP = HITS/9 IP vs. the league average
ERA = ERA vs. the league average
SO/BB = STRIKEOUTS/WALKS vs. the league average

Wow!

CC Sabathia, Mo Rivera and Phil Hughes combine for +58 RSAA – and, yet, as a team, the Yankees only have +16 RSAA on the season.

What does this all tell us? Well, it says that:

• Damaso Marte, Anthony Claggett, Sergio Mitre, and Chien-Ming Wang were terrible this season.
• CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes were great this year.
• And, everyone else on the Yankees pretty much performed, on the whole, like a league average pitcher.

Does that sound like a World Champion pitching staff to you? Or, does it sound like just another typical Brian Cashman built pitching squad?

Note: This entry was posted at 9:32 am ET today. However, since then, I’ve learned that there was an issue with the CBE where players who debuted in 2009 were added to the database three times, which resulted in those players having their stats tripled in the sorting feature. It’s since been corrected and I have now edited this post (at 4:40 pm ET). See the comments section below to see what was changed in addition to the stats.

What do the 1998 Astros (154 RCAA), 1999 Indians (146 RCAA), 2000 Giants (213 RCAA), 2002 Yankees (143 RCAA), 2003 Braves (208 RCAA), 2006 Yankees (185 RCAA) and 2007 Phillies (144 RCAA) all have in common?

They were all great offensive ballclubs (during the regular season) who saw their hopes go down in flames during a League Division Series.

Now, here’s a fun list via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia – all the World Champions, from 1995 through 2008, ranked by team RCAA totals:

TEAM	  YEAR	RCAA
Yankees	  1999	170
Yankees	  1998	168
Red Sox	  2004	119
Angels	  2002	89
Red Sox	  2007	61
Marlins	  2003	59
Phillies  2008	46
D'backs	  2001	34
Cardinals 2006	31
Marlins	  1997	15
Yankees	  2000	7
Yankees	  1996	-4
Braves	  1995	-53
White Sox 2005	-59

Interesting, the only teams to win rings since 1995 who had “super offenses” were the 1998-99 Yankees and 2004 Red Sox. But, then again, those teams had pitching as well.

Also via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia – it’s all the World Champions, from 1995 through 2008, ranked by team RSAA totals:

TEAM	 YEAR	RSAA
Red Sox	  2007	163
White Sox 2005	143
Braves	  1995	134
D'backs	  2001	122
Red Sox	  2004	118
Yankees	  1998	102
Angels	  2002	100
Phillies  2008	87
Yankees	  1996	60
Yankees	  2000	54
Marlins	  1997	40
Yankees	  1999	40
Marlins	  2003	-10
Cardinals 2006	-23

All these teams could pitch, huh? Sans, of course, the 2003 Marlins and 2006 Cardinals – but, both those teams had pitchers get hot in the post-season.

What does all this suggest? If the Yankees don’t pitch well this post-season, even with their great offense, they’re going to have a hard time getting that ring.

I was just looking at the Yankees “Runs Scored Distribution” to date this season. Here it is:

 Runs Games Wins Loss  W-L%
+----+-----+----+----+-----+
    0    5    0    5   .000
    1    5    0    5   .000
    2   14    4   10   .286
    3   16    7    9   .438
    4   27   14   13   .519
    5   25   18    7   .720
    6   14   11    3   .786
    7    9    8    1   .889
    8   13   11    2   .846
    9    9    8    1   .889
   10    8    8    0  1.000
   11    9    8    1   .889
   12    1    1    0  1.000
   13    2    2    0  1.000
   15    1    1    0  1.000
   20    1    1    0  1.000
+----+-----+----+----+-----+

What does this mean? It means the 2009 Yankees, so far this season, are 25-42 when they score 4 runs or less in a game. On the other side, they are 77-15 when they score 5 runs or more in the game. Taking it a bit further, look at this:

W-L record when the Yankees score 2 runs or less: 4-20
W-L record when the Yankees score 3-4 runs: 21-22
W-L record when the Yankees score 5+ runs: 77-15

So, in summary, when the Yankees score 2 runs or less, they almost always lose. When they score 5 or more, they almost always win. And, when they score 3 or 4 runs in the game, it’s a coin flip on whether they win or lose.

Let’s hope the Yankees score 5+ runs a game this October.

Here’s a fun little list – it’s Yankees with the most seasons where they had 700+ Plate Appearances – with 2009 being through yesterday’s game:

                   From  To   Ages Seasons Link to Individual Seasons
+-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+------------------------------+
 Derek Jeter       1997 2009 23-35       8 Ind. Seasons
 Lou Gehrig        1927 1937 24-34       6 Ind. Seasons
 Bobby Richardson  1961 1965 25-29       4 Ind. Seasons
 Frankie Crosetti  1936 1939 25-28       4 Ind. Seasons
 Red Rolfe         1935 1939 26-30       4 Ind. Seasons
 Roy White         1970 1976 26-32       3 Ind. Seasons
 Alex Rodriguez    2005 2007 29-31       2 Ind. Seasons
 Alfonso Soriano   2002 2003 26-27       2 Ind. Seasons
 Chuck Knoblauch   1998 1999 29-30       2 Ind. Seasons
 Steve Sax         1989 1991 29-31       2 Ind. Seasons
 Don Mattingly     1985 1986 24-25       2 Ind. Seasons
 Phil Rizzuto      1949 1950 32-33       2 Ind. Seasons
 Snuffy Stirnweiss 1944 1945 25-26       2 Ind. Seasons
 Earle Combs       1927 1928 28-29       2 Ind. Seasons
 Hideki Matsui     2005 2005 31-31       1 Ind. Seasons
 Rickey Henderson  1986 1986 27-27       1 Ind. Seasons
 Horace Clarke     1970 1970 30-30       1 Ind. Seasons
 Tom Tresh         1962 1962 24-24       1 Ind. Seasons
 Lyn Lary          1931 1931 25-25       1 Ind. Seasons

Seasons/Careers found: 19.

Derek Jeter may have an Yankees record there that may never be broken, eh?

I thought this split was interesting – it’s “2009 A.L. team’s records where the opponent’s season W-L% is >= .550 ” – note that it does not include today’s games:

The Rangers have gone 17-7 against the Red Sox and Angels this season. Maybe the Yankees should start pulling up the tapes from those games and see if there’s a trick to be learned that could come in handy this October?

Lee Sinins is noodling over some enhancements to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. He’s looking into adding the option to now sort by “Division” when sorting stats…and not just by everyone, “League” and “Team.” Also, he’s working on adding a “Championship” option to the sorting screen.

As Lee shared: “In other words, either for single season, when the team won a championship or, for career figures, his career total for those seasons. Here’s the classifications that I’m using — 1) World Champions, 2) pennant winner, 3) first place, 4) made the postseason and 5) missed postseason.”

Related, Lee passed along some interesting sorts using these new wrinkles – with stats through last season and not including 2009. Here they are…

Continue reading »

Well, to answer the question, I went to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia and asked it to show me seasons for Yankees pitchers where:

GAMES STARTED BETWEEN 9 AND 18
INNINGS PITCHED BETWEEN 27 AND 54
RANKED BY WORST RSAA

and, this is what I got:

PITCHER	        YEAR	RSAA	GS	IP
Chien-Ming Wang	2009	-24	9	42.0
Ian Kennedy	2008	-16	9	39.2
Hideki Irabu	1997	-16	9	53.1
Sergio Mitre	2009	-16	9	46.0
Steve Trout	1987	-12	9	46.1
Shane Rawley	1984	-12	10	42.0
Ster. Hitchcock	2001	-11	9	51.1
Chuck Cary	1991	-10	9	53.1
Ramiro Mendoza	1996	-10	11	53.0
Randy Keisler	2001	-10	10	50.2
Rich Dotson	1989	-8	9	51.2
Bill Short	1960	-7	10	47.0
Mike Witt	1993	-6	9	41.0
Mike Griffin	1980	-5	9	54.0
Cory Lidle	2006	-4	9	45.1

So, the answer is, so far, this season, Mitre has not been as bad as Chien-Ming Wang was earlier this season – but, it’s close. And, Mitre has been, again, to date, just as bad as Ian Kennedy was last year and somewhat worse than Steve Trout was back in 1987.

So, maybe, when I wrote back on November 3, 2008 that: “I’m not certain, but, I think Sergio Mitre is Latin for ‘Jay Witasick.’”…

…I should have wrote: I’m not certain, but, I think Sergio Mitre is Latin for “Steve Trout”…?

I promised this the other day, so here goes…

The 2009 Yankees compared to the 2002 Yankees:

The 2002 Yankees won 103 games that season. According to CoolStandings.com, the 2009 Yankees are on pace to win 102 games this season.

At the close of business on September 12, 2002, the 2002 Yankees had a record of 93-53 and a 9.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox.

At the close of business on September 12, 2009, the 2009 Yankees had a record of 91-52 and a 7.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox.

Per the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the 2002 Yankees had .888 RCAA/G – and, to date, the 2009 Yankees have 1.224 RCAA/G (after 143 games).

Per the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the 2002 Yankees had .472 RSAA/G – and, to date, the 2009 Yankees have .042 RSAA/G (after 143 games).

Therefore, the 2002 Yankees RSAA/G plus RCAA/G mark was: 1.360 (in 161 games). And, the 2009 Yankees RSAA/G plus RCAA/G mark, to date, is 1.266 (in 143 games).

Needless to say, in terms of current record, position in the standings, projected win total, and the spread between runs created and saved above average, the 2009 Yankees look a lot like the 2002 Yankees, don’t they?

And, what happened to the 2002 Yankees? They got their fannies beat in the ALDS that season when Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells pitched terribly in their post-season starting assignments (against the Angels).

Here are their stats, via Baseball-Reference.com, from that 2002 ALDS:

STARTER		GS	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	SO
Roger Clemens	1	6.35	5.2	8	4	3	5
Mike Mussina	1	9.00	4.0	6	4	0	2
Andy Pettitte	1	12.00	3.0	8	4	0	1
David Wells	1	15.43	4.2	10	8	0	0

Know what? If CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and (if he gets a start) Joba Chamberlain pitch as poorly during the 2009 ALDS as Rocket, Moose, Andy and Boomer did in the 2002 ALDS, then we will remember the 2009 Yankees in the same exact light as the 2002 Yankees.

It’s September 9th, and through yesterday, the Yankees have only lost 20 games at home this season. Here they are:

  Cnt Losing Pitcher    Date       Tm   Opp GmReslt
+----+-----------------+-------------+---+----+-----+
    1 A.J. Burnett      2009-08-27 NYY  TEX L  2-7
    2 Joba Chamberlain  2009-08-25 NYY  TEX L  9-10
    3 Sergio Mitre      2009-08-10 NYY  TOR L  4-5
    4 Andy Pettitte     2009-07-25 NYY  OAK L  4-6
    5 Andy Pettitte     2009-07-06 NYY  TOR L  6-7
    6 C.C. Sabathia     2009-07-02 NYY  SEA L  4-8
    7 Joba Chamberlain  2009-06-18 NYY  WSN L  0-3
    8 Chien-Ming Wang   2009-06-17 NYY  WSN L  2-3
    9 Andy Pettitte     2009-06-13 NYY  NYM L  2-6
   10 Mariano Rivera    2009-06-06 NYY  TBR L  7-9
   11 Andy Pettitte     2009-06-03 NYY  TEX L  2-4
   12 Brett Tomko       2009-05-24 NYY  PHI L  3-4
   13 A.J. Burnett      2009-05-22 NYY  PHI L  3-7
   14 Mariano Rivera    2009-05-07 NYY  TBR L  6-8
   15 Phil Coke         2009-05-06 NYY  TBR L  3-4
   16 Joba Chamberlain  2009-05-05 NYY  BOS L  3-7
   17 Philip Hughes     2009-05-04 NYY  BOS L  4-6
   18 C.C. Sabathia     2009-05-02 NYY  LAA L  4-8
   19 Chien-Ming Wang   2009-04-18 NYY  CLE L  4-22
   20 Jose Veras        2009-04-16 NYY  CLE L  2-10
   

For those scoring at home, Andy Pettitte (4) and Joba Chamberlain (3) have been charged with 7 of these 20 losses.  No other pitcher has more than two.  And, 6 of these 20 losses were by one run.  Imagine if New York had won those?  They would be 54-14 at home right now.  Wow…then again…not that 48-20 is anything to be embarrassed about…

Let’s look at how the Yankees starting pitchers have done, recently:

First the good:

• CC Sabathia, last 6 starts: 44.3 IP with an ERA of 1.83. Has allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .206/.237/.306 facing 169 batters.
• Andy Pettitte, last 6 starts: 39.6 IP with an ERA of 2.50. Has allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .207/.266/.293 facing 155 batters.

Next, the bad:

• A.J. Burnett, last 7 starts: 42.6 IP with an ERA of 6.54. Has allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .287/.361/.456 facing 192 batters.
• Joba Chamberlain, last 6 starts: 26.0 IP with an ERA of 7.96. Has allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .330/.423/.500 facing 130 batters.
• Sergio Mitre, last 6 games (5 of which were starts): 26.0 IP with an ERA of 5.54. Has allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .306/.350/.519 facing 120 batters.

Is there any question that Sabathia and Pettitte should be the Yankees first and second starters in the post-season?

I received an e-mail earlier today where the sender shared that the Yankees team Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) last season was -44.5, the third worst in the league. And, according to their note, this year, New York’s UZR is -12.9, right around the middle of the pack (16th in the big leagues, specifically).

So, what’s behind the improvement? I looked into the stats a bit and believe that the difference between this season and last year is that Nick Swisher – while just a somewhat average right fielder – is a huge improvement over Bobby Abreu (who was terrible in terms of UZR), Mark Teixiera is an improvement over Jason Giambi at first base, and that Derek Jeter has greatly improved his UZR mark (this season compared to last year).

But, while looking into UZR, I found that it’s creator did admit to the following: If one fielder is better at positioning than another, then he will likely have a better UZR even if he has the same or worse range. And, seeing this, I have to think back to all those reports about Mick Kelleher helping Derek Jeter with his positioning this season.

So, maybe the answer here, in terms of why the Yankees are a better defensive team in 2009 (compared to 2008), is: New York got rid of Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi – and they also brought in Mick Kelleher. What do you think?

Here are some stats for Yankees batters since the All-Star break through last night’s game:

BATTER		G   PA	 R  2B  3B HR  RBI SB  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  GDP BABIP
Derek Jeter	45  212	 39  7   1  7  24   6  16  28  .352 .403  .508  4  .384
Mark Teixeira	44  201	 26  12  0 11  38   1  24  34  .293 .383  .552  3  .308
Robinson Cano	45  187	 29  16  1  9  28   0   7  20  .344 .369  .594  5  .351
Alex Rodriguez	41  184	 28   5  1  6  25   6  22  42  .296 .391  .453  6  .369
Johnny Damon	40  177	 33  12  0  8  25   2  18  20  .327 .395  .553  3  .336
Melky Cabrera	44  170	 21  10  1  3  16   4  12  14  .258 .314  .394  5  .266
Nick Swisher	40  169	 24  10  0  9  25   0  27  39  .275 .393  .543  2  .315
Hideki Matsui	39  156	 20   6  0  9  33   0  14  20  .262 .333  .496  2  .250
Jorge Posada	35  142	 18  12  0  8  26   0  13  36  .273 .338  .555  6  .318
Jose Molina	18   58	  7   1  0  0   4   0   6  10  .196 .276  .216  3  .238
Jerry Hairston	26   54	 10   3  0  2  10   0   7   6  .273 .377  .477  0  .270
Eric Hinske	19   51	  7   3  0  4   8   0   6  15  .227 .314  .568  0  .231

Jerry Hairston out slugging A-Rod? Maybe General Joe should bench Alex for Jerry? Yes, I’m just kidding – although it’s somewhat interesting that A-Rod has 12 XBH since the ASB in 184 PA and Godzilla has 15 XBH since the ASB in 156 PA. What happened to Rodriguez’ pop? It’s not for the lack of big swings – see Alex’s SO total of 42 (which is tops for the Yanks in the second half…followed by Swisher and Posada).

Check out those post-ASB BA marks for Jeter (.352), Cano (.344) and Damon (.327). Those guys have been rifling hits since the break.

What numbers here, good and bad, stand out the most to you – and why?

Swishalicious don’t play dat?

Below are Nick Swisher’s Home/Road splits, this season, to date:

Split	G  PA	AB   R	 H  2B	3B  HR	RBI  BB	SO  BA	 OBP	SLG
Home	60 230	175  23	35  10	0    3	20   47	49 .200	.373	.309
Away	64 268	233  42	66  17	1   20	52   31	59 .283	.363	.622

Any theories on why Swisher can’t get any hits and/or homers at Yankee Stadium – which is a hitter’s park, to say the least – this season?

Is it just a luck/sample size thing? Is he pressing at home? Partying too much at home?

Seems odd that Nick is still getting his walks, in the Bronx, but not hits and/or homeruns. Perhaps that’s a clue that it’s just a luck thing? Plus, because of the walks, Swisher only has 175 At Bats in the new Yankee Stadium. And, if he were to go, say, 25 for his next 60 in the Bronx (.417) then that would add 55 points to his home batting average.

Yet, the power numbers are puzzling. What do you think is going on there?

This is an interesting stat. So far, this season, a Yankees starting pitcher has thrown 7+ innings in his start 45 times. Via Baseball-Reference.com, here’s how the Yankees have done in this type of slice since 1996:

Year	Games
----    -----
2003	87
1998	81
2002	79
1997	77
1999	69
2000	67
2001	64
2005	56
1996	54
2004	53
2009	45
2007	44
2006	44
2008	33

If you would have asked me “Are the Yankees starters going deeper into games this season – more often than recent seasons?” – without looking – I would have guessed “yes” (based on the conventional wisdom that Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte are giving them innings each time out).

Well, maybe CC, A.J. and Andy are giving them innings – and the rest of the crew (Joba, Wang, Mitre, et al) are not – at least not like the 1997-1999 and 2002-2003 Yankees got from their starters…

That could be it…

Look at those 1998 and 2003 Yankeees. Every other game, their starting pitcher went 7+ innings in a start – on average. (And, the 1997 and 2002 Yanks were not far off from this too.) Now, that will save a pen, huh?

…have been very good in Yankeeland, yes?

The Yankees record in their last…

10 Games:   7-3
20 Games:  14-6
30 Games: 20-10
40 Games: 29-11
50 Games: 35-15
60 Games: 43-17

You really can’t complain too much about playing .717 baseball over a 60 game period, can you?

Have you seen Alex Rodrguez’ BA/OBA/SLG line from July 31st through August 28th? It’s .322/.440/.478 in 109 PA.

In the 14 games before this run, A-Rod’s BA/OBA/SLG mark was .193/.246/.333 (in 61 PA). Clearly, Alex is turning it on…let’s just hope he can keep it up for the next two months.

O.K, what do you see here?

Opp	W	L		Opp	W	L
CHW	1	3		BOS	5	9
FLA	1	2		CHW	1	3
PHI	1	2		FLA	1	2
WSN	1	2		LAA	2	4
ATL	2	1		PHI	1	2
KCR	2	1		WSN	1	2
	8	11			11	22

Opp	W	L		Opp	W	L
BOS	5	9		ATL	2	1
LAA	2	4		BAL	9	3
BAL	9	3		CLE	5	3
CLE	5	3		DET	5	1
DET	5	1		KCR	2	1
MIN	7	0		MIN	7	0
NYM	5	1		NYM	5	1
OAK	7	2		OAK	7	2
SEA	5	2		SEA	5	2
TBR	6	5		TBR	6	5
TEX	4	2		TEX	4	2
TOR	9	3		TOR	9	3
	69	35			66	24

TOTAL	77	46		TOTAL	77	46

And, don’t you dare say “A pretty butterfly.”

Me? I see that the Yankees are 31 games over .500 as of the close of buisness today. And, I see that the Yankees are 37-9, so far this season, when playing the Orioles, Twins, Mets, A’s and Blue Jays – which is 28 games over .500 (against those five teams). Twenty-eight and thirty-one are pretty close, no?

Here are Alex Rodriguez’ batting stats for the last 29 games that he’s played this season, as of this morning:

G   PA	HR  RBI	 BB  SO	 BA   OBP  SLG
29  130	 4   13	 13  31	.243 .331 .391

Good thing the Yankees went 20-9 in those 29 games – or else it might have been open-season on A-Rod…for not playing well during the pennant race this season.

Hopefully, Alex will start to play better over the remainder of the season. If not, the Yankees may have to think about moving him out of the clean-up spot, no?

On June 13th, in a loss against the Mets, Jose Veras threw his last pitch as a member of the New York Yankees.

Since June 14th, Yankees pitchers have thrown 496.6 IP and allowed an ERA of 3.52 – with the team going 39-16 over those 55 games.

Now, I know that getting rid of Jose Veras only helped in the sense that it was getting rid of Jose Veras…

…more so, I’m just making the point here that the Yankees pitchers have been great now for the last nine weeks.

From Opening Day to June 13th, the Yanks had a team ERA of 4.90 in 556.6 IP – with the team going 35-27 over those 62 games. Granted, a good chunk of that was Chien-Ming Wang allowing 33 ER in 21.3 IP during that span…

Still, pitching, my friends, it’s always about the pitching…

Yankees RCAA and RSAA stats through August 15th…
Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

	BATTER		RCAA	PA		PITCHER		RSAA	BFP
1	Mark Teixeira	36	519	1	C.C. Sabathia	16	692
2	Johnny Damon	25	472	2	Mariano Rivera	14	200
3	Derek Jeter	21	523	3	A.J. Burnett	12	629
4	Alex Rodriguez	17	370	T4	J. Chamberlain	8	535
5	Hideki Matsui	15	371	T4	Alfredo Aceves	8	229
6	Robinson Cano	14	497	T4	Phil Hughes	8	285
7	Nick Swisher	12	434	7	Andy Pettitte	6	632
8	Jorge Posada	6	323	8	David Robertson	5	149
T9	Eric Hinske	3	40	9	Mark Melancon	2	48
T9	Jerry Hairston	3	30	10	Chad Gaudin	1	8
11	Brett Gardner	1	231	11	Nick Swisher	0	5
12	Xavier Nady	-1	29	T12	Edwar Ramirez	-1	86
13	Kevin Cash	-2	28	T12	Phil Coke	-1	199
T14	Ramiro Pena	-3	96	T12	Brian Bruney	-1	114
T14	Jose Molina	-3	85	15	Brett Tomko	-2	85
T14	Melky Cabrera	-3	387	16	J. Albaladejo	-3	117
T14	Angel Berroa	-3	24	17	Jose Veras	-4	118
18	Fran. Cervelli	-5	85	18	Sergio Mitre	-5	136
19	Cody Ransom	-7	86	19	Damaso Marte	-6	30
					20	An. Claggett	-9	23
					21	Chien-Ming Wang	-24	206

Man, if you take out those 395 batters faced this season by Sergio Mitre, Damaso Marte, Anthony Claggett and Chien-Ming Wang, then the Yankees pitching this season has been super. And, on the hitting side, check out Godzilla and A-Rod. A case can be made that Matsui’s bat this season, to date, has been just as valuable to the Yankees as Alex Rodriguez’ stick.

Here’s how the Yankees bullpen has done since June 23rd:

Pitcher		G   W	L  Sv	IP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Brian Bruney	14  1	0  0	13.3	7.42	9.45	6.75	2.70
Phil Coke	22  3	0  0	18.0	7.00	7.50	3.00	1.50
David Robertson	17  1	1  1	17.3	4.67	11.94	4.15	1.56
Alfredo Aceves	13  3	0  1	26.3	4.10	6.15	2.05	1.37
Mark Melancon	5   0	1  0	8.0	2.25	5.62	1.12	0.00
Phil Hughes	19  1	1  1	22.3	1.21	11.28	2.01	0.00
Mariano Rivera	21  0	0 18	21.3	0.42	9.28	1.69	0.42

Some notes: Melancon has not pitched all that much since the Yankees took off back in Atlanta on June 23rd. So, basically, the pen has been Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson, Coke and Bruney.

But, of those latter six, only Rivera and Hughes have been outstanding during this time. Aceves and Robertson have been so-so. And, Coke and Bruney have been very bad. So, should the Yankees be concerned about their bullpen? What happens if their big starters – Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte can’t go seven innings every time and then turn the game over to Hughes and Rivera?