On your mark, get set, go!

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Discuss.

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I was just looking at Alex Rodriguez’s career homerun splits. And, this caught my eye – how many outs there were when he homered:

1 Out -   213
2 Outs – 212
0 Outs – 211

The symmetry here is eye-catching. What does it mean? I don’t know – if it means anything other than it being a cool split.

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Here’s the leaderboard in this stat:

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Thoughts on this list?

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Any guess as to who this is – with a SLG% decrease five years in a row now?

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Hint: He’s under contract for the next five years with the New York Yankees at a salary around $23 million per year.

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Andrew Marchand thinks that they do.

However, when you look at the Yankees over their first 38 games of 2011 and 2012, they’re pretty much at the same place.  And, last year, they ended up in first place by the end of the season. See the stats…

Batting:

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Pitching:

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Here’s Teixeira’s BA/OBA/SLG line from June 16, 2011 through May 8, 2012: .237/.308/.434 (in 459 AB).

Call me crazy, but, I suspect the Yankees were looking for a little more production from him than that…

Maybe he should just give up switch-hitting and only bat right-handed?  Could it be any worse than what he’s doing now?

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Here are Alex Rodriguez’ career “clutch” stats, through last night, via B-R.com -

As you can see, A-Rod has his best production (OPS) when his team is ahead in the game or when the game is somewhat out of hand (meaning there’s a difference in the score of five runs or more).  And, A-Rod has his “worst” production in “Late & Close” situations or when there are two outs with RISP. 

Note that his career numbers in ”Late & Close” situations or when there are two outs with RISP are very good.  It’s just that he’s so much better, production-wise, when his team is ahead in the game or when the game is somewhat out of hand.  And, that’s why some probably consider him to be someone who pads his stats with garbage time production.

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Where does your favorite team rank?

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Stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

TRAA                           TRAA     FRAA     RCAA      PA
1    Robinson Cano                33        6       27      681
2    Curtis Granderson            29       -6       35      691
3    Brett Gardner                22       22        0      588
4    Nick Swisher                 19        6       13      635
5    Mark Teixeira                15       -2       17      684
T6   Andruw Jones                 11        3        8      222
T6   Alex Rodriguez               11        2        9      428
8    Russell Martin                8       18      -10      476
9    Jesus Montero                 5       -1        6       69
T10  Brandon Laird                -1        1       -2       25
T10  Gustavo Molina               -1        0       -1        6
T12  Francisco Cervelli           -2        1       -3      137
T12  Greg Golson                  -2       -1       -1       12
T12  Austin Romine                -2        0       -2       20
15   Chris Dickerson              -3       -2       -1       55
T16  Eric Chavez                  -6       -2       -4      175
T16  Ramiro Pena                  -6        0       -6       46
18   Jorge Posada                -12        1      -13      387
19   Derek Jeter                 -21      -24        3      607
20   Eduardo Nunez               -22      -16       -6      338

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP    BR/9 IP     IP
1    C.C. Sabathia                36      985    11.30    237.1
2    David Robertson              24      272    10.26     66.2
3    Mariano Rivera               17      233     8.36     61.1
4    Luis Ayala                   14      233    12.38     56
T5   Freddy Garcia                12      626    12.27    146.2
T5   Ivan Nova                    12      704    12.30    165.1
7    Cory Wade                    10      157     9.30     39.2
8    Bartolo Colon                 7      694    11.77    164.1
9    Joba Chamberlain              5      110     9.73     28.2
10   Boone Logan                   4      185    12.96     41.2
11   Lance Pendleton               2       62    12.86     14
T12  George Kontos                 1       24    10.50      6
T12  Raul Valdes                   1       28    13.50      6.2
T12  Jeff Marquez                  1       18    11.25      4
T12  Rafael Soriano                1      164    11.90     39.1
T12  Aaron Laffey                  1       50    16.88     10.2
17   Buddy Carlyle                 0       34    14.09      7.2
T18  Brian Gordon                 -1       46    14.81     10.1
T18  Hector Noesi                 -1      247    13.90     56.1
20   Sergio Mitre                 -4       30    23.63      5.1
21   Scott Proctor                -6       62    25.36     11
22   Amaury Sanit                 -7       40    23.14      7
23   Phil Hughes                 -12      334    13.86     74.2
24   A.J. Burnett                -17      837    13.33    190.1

Of all these players, which ones are you most interested in, or concerned about, now, in terms of what their production will be in 2012 – and why?

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Next time someone tells you that the Yankees cannot live without Nick Swisher next season, tell them to check these numbers:

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And…

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Last season, Swisher was between Jeff Francoeur and Torii Hunter in terms of production. And, over the last three years, he was between Michael Cuddyer and Ben Zobrist.

Nick Swisher is a nice player. He’s not a great player. And, he can be replaced, if the Yankees opt to make that call.

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Here’s how the Yankees have done over the past 10 seasons:

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And, here’s how the Atlanta Braves did in the first 10 years of their “post-season run” -

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So, have the Post-2001 Yankees become the Atlanta Braves of the 1990′s? 

You can make a case for it – both reached the post-season 9 out of 10 times and only won one ring.

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Here are the numbers:

Pretty safe to say that Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have come back down to earth, eh? So, are they still “Great finds by Cashman?”

In any event, Burnett still sucks – no matter what he does today. And, Phil Hughes cannot be trusted. More and more…I don’t see how Ivan Nova cannot be starting Game 2 of the ALDS for the Yankees.

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To date, this season, the Yankees are 39-14 in games startes by CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova.  That’s a winning percentage of .736.

And, this also means that the Yankees are 46-39 in games not started by Sabathia and Nova.

If you’re planning on attending a Yankees game in September or October, try and get one when CC or Ivan is starting.

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Check out these numbers.

• A.J. Burnett’s last 20 starts: 6.07 ERA in 115.6 IP
• Phil Hughes’ last 8 games (7 starts): 5.82 ERA in 38.6 IP
• Bartolo Colon’s last 11 starts: 4.90 ERA in 60.6 IP
• Freddy Garcia’s last 12 starts: 2.89 ERA in 71.6 ERA
• Ivan Nova’s last 7 starts:  3.45 ERA in 47 IP
• CC Sabathia’s last 6 starts: 4.75 ERA in 41.6 IP

Seeing these, what do you think of the Yankees chances this October?

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In Bartolo Colon’s last 10 starts, his ERA is 4.80 (in 54.3 IP).  During this time, he’s allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .303/.351/.507 (facing 239 batters). How bad is that? It’s “A.J. Burnett” material.

When you combine that with how bad Phil Hughes has been…Ivan Nova has to be the Yankees #2 starter in the post-season, doesn’t he?

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Since June 1st of last year, Burnett has made 49 starts for the Yankees, throwing 276.3 innings, and his ERA over these games is 5.80.

If that ain’t a wad of data to fill your objective pipe, what is?

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Here are the numbers:

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Yes, Hughes is young.  But, at some point, you want to see an ERA that’s not around five, right?

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A.J. Burnett has made 92 starts in his Yankees career, to date.  And, in 41 of those 92 starts, he was, at best, below average, and, at worst, terrible.  And, in 21 of those 92 starts, he was, at best, a few ticks above average, and, at worst, just average.  This means in only 30 of his 92 Yankees starts has Burnett pitched very well.  [See stats below.]

Sum it up.  In one of three starts, Burnett will pitch well.  And, in two-thirds of his other starts, he’s below average or terrible.  We’ve seen this for three years in Yankeeland now.  Why anyone would think it’s going to get better over the next two is beyond me.

(more…)

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I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but, in his last 8 starts, the Yankees Bartolo Colon is 2-4 with an ERA of 4.91 (in 40.3 IP).  Worse, in that span, he’s faced 185 batters and allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .310/.373/.518 (in these 8 games).

Yes, the league is sticking it to the Yankees Colon when he’s on the mound (since July 7th).

So, who is the Yankees #2 starter in this post-season after CC Sabathia?

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Yankees 2011 stats through yesterday, via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

TRAA                           TRAA     RCAA     FRAA
1    Brett Gardner                30        9       21
2    Curtis Granderson            26       32       -6
3    Nick Swisher                 23       15        8
4    Alex Rodriguez               17       14        3
5    Mark Teixeira                16       17       -1
6    Robinson Cano                14       21       -7
7    Russell Martin                4       -9       13
8    Andruw Jones                  3        2        1
9    Eric Chavez                   2        1        1
T10  Greg Golson                   0        0        0
T10  Ramiro Pena                   0       -3        3
T12  Brandon Laird                -1        0       -1
T12  Chris Dickerson              -1        2       -3
T12  Gustavo Molina               -1       -1        0
15   Francisco Cervelli           -4       -3       -1
16   Jorge Posada                 -9       -8       -1
17   Eduardo Nunez               -11       -1      -10
18   Derek Jeter                 -22       -3      -19

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP      IP
1    C.C. Sabathia                25      777    190.2
2    David Robertson              14      196     46.2
3    Freddy Garcia                13      517    122.1
4    Luis Ayala                   12      161     38.2
5    Bartolo Colon                10      498    119.2
6    Mariano Rivera                8      173     45
7    Cory Wade                     5       91     23.1
8    Joba Chamberlain              4      110     28.2
T9   Boone Logan                   3      134     29.2
T9   Ivan Nova                     3      486    112.1
T11  Lance Pendleton               1       62     14
T11  Jeff Marquez                  1       18      4
T11  Hector Noesi                  1      164     38.2
T11  Rafael Soriano                1       87     21
T15  Kevin Whelan                  0       10      1.2
T15  Steve Garrison                0        2      0.2
T17  Brian Gordon                 -1       46     10.1
T17  Buddy Carlyle                -1       34      7.2
19   Sergio Mitre                 -5       30      5.1
20   Amaury Sanit                 -7       40      7
21   A.J. Burnett                 -8      645    148.2
22   Phil Hughes                 -12      202     44

TRAA                           TRAA     RCAA     FRAA
1    Red Sox                     116      102       14
2    Yankees                      86       85        1
3    Tigers                       74       52       22
4    Rays                         73       64        9
5    Royals                       38       29        9
6    Angels                       10      -10       20
7    Rangers                       1        8       -7
8    Indians                     -11      -19        8
9    Blue Jays                   -13      -12       -1
10   Mariners                    -69      -83       14
11   Orioles                     -74      -51      -23
12   White Sox                   -84      -64      -20
13   Twins                      -103      -87      -16
14   A's                        -113      -76      -37

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP      IP
1    Rangers                     104     4499   1070.1
2    Yankees                      67     4483   1060
3    A's                          59     4514   1062.1
4    Red Sox                      49     4512   1063.2
5    White Sox                    39     4525   1075.2
6    Angels                       22     4519   1088
7    Blue Jays                     3     4638   1075.1
8    Mariners                      0     4362   1048.1
9    Indians                      -3     4413   1048.2
10   Rays                        -31     4446   1065
11   Tigers                      -38     4495   1053.1
12   Twins                       -48     4536   1047
13   Royals                      -78     4688   1083.1
14   Orioles                     -87     4596   1045.1

It’s a rainy day in Yankeeland. Feel free to discuss these stats or anything else Yankees-related in the comments section of this post.

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• In 2009, the Yankees were 69-43 after 112 games and went 34-16 over the rest of the season.
• In 2010, the Yankees were 69-43 after 112 games and went 26-24 over the rest of the season.
• In 2011, the Yankees were 69-43 after 112 games and have gone 0-1 since that time.

How do you think they’ll do from here out? More like 2010 or 2009? Or, will it be worse than 2010? Or, better than 2009?

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Freddy Garcia’s ERA this season at night is 4.41 (compared to 1.73 in day games). And, his ERA this season is 10.13 when facing the Boston Red Sox.

What are the odds that Freddy throws a gem this evening at Fenway?

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Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia -

TRAA                           TRAA     FRAA     RCAA
1    Brett Gardner                26       20        6
2    Curtis Granderson            25       -2       27
3    Nick Swisher                 20        4       16
4    Alex Rodriguez               17        3       14
5    Mark Teixeira                15       -1       16
6    Robinson Cano                 6       -8       14
7    Russell Martin                4       11       -7
8    Eric Chavez                   2        2        0
9    Andruw Jones                  1        1        0
10   Greg Golson                   0        0        0
T11  Brandon Laird                -1       -1        0
T11  Chris Dickerson              -1       -3        2
T11  Gustavo Molina               -1        0       -1
T11  Ramiro Pena                  -1        2       -3
15   Francisco Cervelli           -4       -1       -3
16   Eduardo Nunez                -8       -6       -2
17   Jorge Posada                -10       -1       -9
18   Derek Jeter                 -22      -18       -4

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP      IP
1    C.C. Sabathia                29      686    168.2
2    David Robertson              12      178     41
3    Freddy Garcia                11      471    111.1
T4   Bartolo Colon                10      453    109
T4   Mariano Rivera               10      151     39.1
6    Luis Ayala                    9      135     32.2
T7   Joba Chamberlain              4      110     28.2
T7   Cory Wade                     4       68     17.1
T9   Hector Noesi                  3      147     35
T9   Boone Logan                   3      127     28.1
T11  Lance Pendleton               1       62     14
T11  Jeff Marquez                  1       18      4
T11  Ivan Nova                     1      434     98.2
T14  Kevin Whelan                  0       10      1.2
T14  Steve Garrison                0        2      0.2
T16  Brian Gordon                 -1       46     10.1
T16  Buddy Carlyle                -1       34      7.2
T18  Rafael Soriano               -2       72     16
T18  A.J. Burnett                 -2      591    138.1
20   Sergio Mitre                 -5       30      5.1
21   Amaury Sanit                 -7       40      7
22   Phil Hughes                 -15      155     31.2

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Here are those who are doing well in the bushes this season for the Yankees.

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Here are the Yankees “W-L” results, this season, to date, using some selected end-points:

March 31st through April 24th: 12-6
April 25th through May 25th: 15-15
May 26th through July 2nd: 23-10
July 3rd through July 21st: 8-8

Basically, outside of the month of June, where the Yankees got fat on a lot of inter-league games, and the month of April, where the Yankees feasted on Baltimore and Minnesota (when they were struggling), New York has essentially been a .500 team this year. Is this cause for concern in Yankeeland? Or, is this just the way it works – beat up on weak teams when they’re on the schedule and break-even against everyone else?

In either case, what does it say about the Yankees chances if they reach the post-season this year? There are no soft-spots in the schedule there.

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Here are the BA/OBA/SLG numbers for Mark Teixeira since 2008 through yesterday, per season:

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Two-thirty-nine on July 19th? Really? At what point does Yankeeland start to turn nasty on Tex?

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Check the numbers, through yesterday, via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia -

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP      IP       ERA
1    C.C. Sabathia                24      630    153.2     2.64
2    David Robertson              11      154     35.1     1.27
3    Mariano Rivera                9      135     35       1.80
4    Luis Ayala                    8      117     28.1     1.59
5    Freddy Garcia                 7      411     97       3.43
6    Bartolo Colon                 6      376     90.2     3.47
7    Joba Chamberlain              4      110     28.2     2.83
8    Cory Wade                     3       44     11.2     1.54
9    Hector Noesi                  2      118     28.2     3.45
T10  Lance Pendleton               1       62     14       3.21
T10  Jeff Marquez                  1       18      4       2.25
T10  Boone Logan                   1      100     22.1     3.63
13   Kevin Whelan                  0       10      1.2     5.40
T14  Brian Gordon                 -1       46     10.1     5.23
T14  Buddy Carlyle                -1       34      7.2     4.70
T14  A.J. Burnett                 -1      503    119.1     4.15
T14  Ivan Nova                    -1      406     91.2     4.12
18   Rafael Soriano               -2       69     15       5.40
19   Sergio Mitre                 -6       30      5.1    13.50
20   Amaury Sanit                 -7       40      7      12.86
21   Phil Hughes                 -11       78     15.1    10.57

RSAA                           RSAA      BFP      IP       ERA
1    A's                          81     3567    853.1     3.13
2    Rangers                      53     3579    849.1     3.81
3    Yankees                      47     3491    822.2     3.54
4    White Sox                    30     3588    852.2     3.79
T5   Mariners                     26     3435    837.2     3.30
T5   Angels                       26     3620    869.1     3.26
7    Red Sox                      21     3484    820.2     3.98
8    Blue Jays                     3     3691    855       4.14
9    Indians                      -4     3480    821.2     4.00
10   Rays                        -21     3390    817       3.65
11   Twins                       -30     3487    812       4.22
12   Tigers                      -48     3569    828       4.30
13   Royals                      -65     3674    848       4.55
14   Orioles                     -69     3566    817.1     4.82

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Great stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

TRAA                           TRAA     RCAA     FRAA
1    Curtis Granderson            25       24        1
2    Brett Gardner                19        2       17
3    Alex Rodriguez               15       14        1
T4   Nick Swisher                 12        7        5
T4   Mark Teixeira                12       15       -3
6    Robinson Cano                11       14       -3
7    Eric Chavez                   4        1        3
8    Russell Martin                1       -6        7
9    Andruw Jones                  0       -1        1
T10  Gustavo Molina               -1       -1        0
T10  Ramiro Pena                  -1       -3        2
12   Chris Dickerson              -2        0       -2
13   Eduardo Nunez                -4       -1       -3
14   Jorge Posada                 -5       -5        0
15   Francisco Cervelli           -6       -5       -1
16   Derek Jeter                 -18       -4      -14

Click here for more on what these stats mean.

Outside of Gardy, and maybe Martin, the Yankees defense is not looking so great, is it?

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Here’s one way to look at it:

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And, here’s another way to look at it:

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When I look at this, I see that Alex was at his best when he was in his free agent years (2000 and 2007) and when he was using PEDs while in Texas (2001-02-03). And, then he also had a couple of great seasons while in New York and Seattle. It’s an interesting picture, no?

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If you look at the list of Yankees to have a day where “aLI>=1.25, and WPA>=.35 and RE24=2.5″, then, yes, it could be true.

(more…)

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