The following was sent to me via email yesterday by the folks at ACTA Sports -

What are the odds that a player will do better than he did the previous year? In the recently-released Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, baseball guru Bill James explains his new “Strong Seasons Leading Index,” a methodology that tries to round up as many indicators as possible and produce a list of hitters who are most likely—and least likely—to improve on their 2009 seasons.

“Age is the most obvious indicator of likely movement,” James says in his article. “We also know that players tend to move back to their historical norms, so we look at last year’s On-base Plus Slugging percentage compared to his career OPS. We also factor in a player’s batting average on balls in play, his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his speed before distilling all this into a single number that indicates how likely a player is to have a strong season in the coming year.”

The article in its entirety is available here. James scores each player out of a possible 38 points. A score of 24 or higher indicates a better-than 50% chance the player will sustain or improve the following season; 23 points or less makes it increasingly unlikely the player will top last year’s numbers.

Here are the top 10 players most likely to sustain or improve in 2010, along with their Strong Seasons Leading Index score:

Player  	2010 Team  		Score
Dioner Navarro  Tampa Bay Rays  	26
Chris B. Young  Arizona Diamondbacks    25
J.J. Hardy  	Minnesota Twins  	25
Russell Martin  Los Angeles Dodgers  	24
Grady Sizemore  Cleveland Indians  	24
Dustin Pedroia  Boston Red Sox  	23
James Loney  	Los Angeles Dodgers  	23
Ian Kinsler  	Texas Rangers  		23
B.J. Upton  	Tampa Bay Rays  	23
Nate McLouth  	Atlanta Braves  	23

Here are the 10 players least likely to sustain or improve in 2010, along with their Strong Seasons Leading Index score:

Player  	2010 Team  		Score
Jorge Posada  	New York Yankees  	8
Matt Diaz  	Atlanta Braves  	9
Craig Counsell  Free Agent  		9
Russell Branyan Free Agent  		11
Jason Bartlett  Tampa Bay Rays  	11
Scott Podsednik Free Agent  		11
Derrek Lee  	Chicago Cubs  		11
Kendry Morales  LA Angels of Anaheim  	11
Ichiro Suzuki   Seattle Mariners  	11
Rajai Davis  	Oakland Athletics  	12

I’m reading The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 now and will have a review on it soon. But, in the interim, this is an interesting study. And, as a tease, I’ll also have a study coming out within the next few days on Posada and his future with the Yankees.

First, his time in Boston:

YEAR	TEAM	  RC	RCAA  OWP  RC/G	 BPA    PA
2002	Red Sox	  107	24   .615  6.24	 .526   702
2003	Red Sox    93	 2   .512  5.40	 .490   690
2004	Red Sox	  116	25   .607  6.94	 .537   702
2005	Red Sox	  107	26   .624  6.54	 .496   688
TOTALS	          423	77   .591  6.27	 .512  2782

World Series Rings: 1
Signature Post-Season Moment:
2nd inning Grand Slam on 10/20/04 in Game 7 of 2004 ALCS

Next, here’s Damon’s time in New York (so far):

YEAR	TEAM	   RC	RCAA  OWP  RC/G	 BPA	PA
2006	Yankees	  108	26   .624  6.55	 .550	671
2007	Yankees	   82	 5   .527  5.54	 .495	605
2008	Yankees	  101	25   .629  6.75	 .541	623
2009	Yankees	  102	27   .636  6.77	 .553	626
TOTALS		  393	83   .607  6.41	 .535  2525

World Series Rings: 1
Signature Post-Season Moment:
9th inning “Double Steal” on 11/1/09 in Game 4 of 2009 World Series

The numbers are pretty close here. In slightly less PA as a member of the Yankees, Damon has posted slightly better numbers in terms of RCAA, OWP, RC/G, and BPA (compared to when he was a member of the Red Sox). And, Johnny has one ring with each team – where he had a big post-season moment contributing towards it.

On the whole, I would say that Johnny Damon’s “time” in New York was just as good as it was while he was in Boston. His production was the same, and, in each stop, he was on one World Series championship team (during the four years he was there).

So, when you retrospectively think “Johnny Damon,” and assuming you don’t consider him to be a “Kansas City Royal” or “Oakland Athletic” (although I doubt anyone who consider the latter), should you first see him as a “Red Sox” or as a “Yankee”? Perhaps it depends on which side of the Boston/New York fence that you sit on? But, in any event, you cannot say that Damon’s career in Boston was better than it was (through 2009) in New York.

Johnny Damon’s “mark” in both towns was pretty much exactly the same.

~~~

Not sure what the baseball stats used in this feature are?

Here’s more on what each one is:

Runs Created [RC]

A Bill James statistic. An estimate of the number of runs that a player would produce based on his offensive statistics. Runs created is an attempt to measure total offensive contribution in terms of runs (see also Runs Contributed). Divided by the runs required per win (in professional baseball, approximately 10), runs created becomes the total wins created by this player’s offensive performance.

RC = ((H+BB+HBP-CS-GIDP) * (TB+ 0.26*(BB+HBP-IBB) + 0.52*(SB+SH+SF)))/(AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF)

Note: The formula shown here is the modern formula in current use by sabermetricians. Bill James created many variations of the basic formula to adjust for available data and other factors in bygone eras.

RC typically ranges from 0 to 120 in a 162-game season. Only players who play a lot can have a very high season total, since the number is dependent on total stats. For a team, runs created is a projected estimate of the runs the team should have scored given its number of hits (by type), walks, stolen bases, and times caught stealing. Comparing team runs created to actual runs scored gives an indication of other factors at work, factors that effect the efficiency of a team’s offense. For instance, high efficiency — consistently scoring more runs than projected — could be explained by good clutch hitting, good baserunning, good managing, or good luck (or maybe cheating). The more consistent the two figures, the less luck is probably involved.

Runs Created Above Average [RCAA]

This is a Lee Sinins creation. It’s the difference between a player’s runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team’s outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category.

Runs Created Per Game [RC/G]

Runs created is an accumulation stat; the more a player bats, the more runs he creates (assuming he makes some positive contribution). Converting runs created into runs created per game provides an indication of how valuable this player is to have in the lineup. RC/G is somewhat like ERA is for pitchers; it recasts the offensive contribution of the player in the context of a nine inning (in this case, 27 out) game. To calculate RC/G, multiply RC by 27 and divide by the number of outs the player is responsible for (OM), thus:

RC/G = 27*RC/OM

[Note: The formula shown here is the modern formula in current use by sabermetricians. Since data is available to account for all outs made, it is appropriate to use 27 outs as the context. In earlier periods, data on some kinds of outs (GIDP and CS are examples) are incomplete or unavailable. Consequently, applying the formula to other eras requires use of 25.5 or 26 outs per game.]

One way to look at RC/G is to imagine a lineup with the same player batting in every spot. A team made up of nine 1992 model Barry Bonds, for example, would be expected to score 11.34 runs per game on average. (Bonds had 147 runs created in 1992.)

Bases Per Plate Appearance [BPA]

The formula is (TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).

Offensive Winning Percentage [OWP]

A player’s Offensive Winning Percentage equals the percentage of games a team would win with nine of that player in its lineup, given average pitching and defense. The formula is the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs, divided by the sum of the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs and the square of the league average of runs per game.

2002-2009
Leaders in OWP, with PLATE APPEARANCES >= 4000
HIT BY PITCHES displayed only–not a sorting criteria

OWP                             OWP      HBP      PA
1    Albert Pujols              .781       60     5406
2    Manny Ramirez              .734       58     4722
3    Alex Rodriguez             .716      102     5364
4    Lance Berkman              .713       47     5143
5    Chipper Jones              .708       10     4524
6    Jim Thome                  .697       29     4353
7    Todd Helton                .690       30     5016
8    David Ortiz                .688       23     4828
9    Jason Giambi               .685      116     4052
10   Vladimir Guerrero          .676       49     4782

Pitchers are more than happy to get inside on A-Rod, and hit him, if that’s result, than they are when facing other great sluggers like Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez or Lance Berkman. Why do you think that is?

Go ask Roger Clemens about Game 4 of the 2000 American League Championship Series, and he’ll tell you…

Pitchers know that you can get inside A-Rod’s head. And, many of them probably don’t respect him all that much, as a person. So, it’s a perfect storm, of sorts.

Alex Rodriguez should be used to getting peppered with pitches by now. It’s what pitchers do to him. Why would this change just because we’re now in the World Series?

Via John Dewan -

In 2008 the Yankees were the second-worst defensive team in baseball based on Defensive Runs Saved. Their defense cost them 38 runs. Only the Royals were worse with 42 lost runs defensively.

In 2009 the Yankees improved dramatically defensively. By becoming an average defense overall (with 2 runs saved as a team overall), they improved by 40 runs. Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs represents one win, that’s a four-win improvement due to their defense.

Where was the improvement? Most Yankee fans can pretty much guess: first base. Mark Teixeira stabilized the Yanks’ infield defense. In 2008, Yankee first basemen cost the team 18 runs overall. This year, even in a down year for Teixeira, they improved by 19 runs to one run saved at first base.

And, via Sean Forman -

…Ryan Howard allowed 1.4 fewer runs than the average first baseman because of his defense, while Mark Teixeira allowed 2.4 runs more. This flies in the face of widely held perceptions of the two players — Teixeira is a multiple Gold Glove winner and Howard is, well, not. Howard has improved drastically this year and Teixeira has regressed from previous high levels. Three runs’ difference is small, and Teixeira was much better than Howard last year, so I’m going to chalk this season’s performance up to random variation and an off year for Teixeira defensively (just as off years happen with the bat, they happen with the glove too). About the throwing, the Phillies were second to last with only 12 first baseman assists to second base (the Cardinals led with 38), but the Yankees managed only two more with 14.

Me? I just know that, to date, Tex’s post-season offensive contribution this year looks like this:

Year   Series Opp G PA R H 2B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG
2009     ALDS MIN 3 13 3 2  0  1   1  1  1 .167 .231 .417
2009     ALCS LAA 6 31 2 6  1  0   4  3  8 .222 .290 .259
2009       WS PHI 1  4 0 0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000 .000

And, it would be nice to see him start to hit a little bit…before this World Series is over…no matter if he’s great with the glove or not…

Funny, I thought have a “hot” A-Rod back in the line-up was the spark that got Tex going this season. Well, in October, not so much, huh?

Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS between the Yankees and Twins, and,

Game 2 of the 2009 ALCS between the Yankees and Angels.

There have been seven post-season games in baseball history where a team used 8+ pitchers in a game of 13 innings or less where their team lost.

1947-2009
RIGHT HANDED HITTERS
PLATE APPEARANCES >= 5000
Highest BA vs. League Average

AVERAGE                         DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     PA
1    Albert Pujols              .065     .334     .269     6082
2    Kirby Puckett              .055     .318     .263     7831
3    Roberto Clemente           .054     .317     .263    10212
4    Vladimir Guerrero          .051     .321     .270     7826
5    Derek Jeter                .047     .317     .271     9809
6    George Kell                .045     .313     .268     5788
7    Edgar Martinez             .043     .312     .268     8672
8    Manny Ramirez              .042     .313     .271     9437
9    Nomar Garciaparra          .042     .313     .271     6116
10   Jackie Robinson            .042     .311     .269     5802

Interesting to see where Jeter lists among the greatest batting right-handed batters, in terms of batting average, since baseball integrated.

Yes, New York does have some younger players (like Cano, Gardner, and Cabrera) and they have some prospects in the pipeline. But, until we see those prospects deliver at the big league level and know that guys like Cano are not going to slip in the near future, this team is driven by guys like Jeter, A-Rod and Posada…who are not getting any younger.

Now, that aside, in attempt to support their “presentation,” the author of the e-mail claimed that Cashman, this season, has built the “best pitching staff [in New York] since 2003.” And, that remark got my attention.

Why? Simple…I wanted to know if it was true or not. And, this is what I found:

Number of “Quality Starts” -
2009 Yankees: 76
2003 Yankees: 96
Winner: 2003 Yankees

Number of Starting Pitchers with 200+ IP -
2009 Yankees: 2
2003 Yankees: 4
Winner: 2003 Yankees

Number of Pitchers with “RSAA > 0 and INNINGS PITCHED >= 50″ -
via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia…

2003 Yankees                    RSAA        IP
1    Mike Mussina                 23       214.2
2    Mariano Rivera               21        70.2
T3   Chris Hammond                10        63
T3   Roger Clemens                10       211.2
T5   Andy Pettitte                 8       208.1
T5   Jose Contreras                8        71
7    David Wells                   5       213
8    Antonio Osuna                 3        50.2

2009 Yankees                    RSAA       IP
1    C.C. Sabathia                26      230
2    Mariano Rivera               19       66.1
3    Phil Hughes                  13       86
T4   Alfredo Aceves                8       84
T4   A.J. Burnett                  8      207
6    Andy Pettitte                 5      194.2

 
Winner: 2003 Yankees

I could keep going…but the answer will keep being the same: The pitching staff of the 2009 Yankees is nowhere close to being as good as the pitching staff of the 2003 Yankees.

Of course, this leads to the question: Where does this current Yankees pitching staff sit – compared to other recent Yankees pitching staffs? To address that, I returned to the CBE which provided this leader board:

TEAM                          YEAR    RSAA      IP
1    Yankees                  1998      102   1456.2
2    Yankees                  1997       78   1467.2
3    Yankees                  2002       76   1452
4    Yankees                  2001       71   1451.1
5    Yankees                  1996       60   1440
6    Yankees                  2000       54   1424.1
7    Yankees                  2003       50   1462
8    Yankees                  1999       40   1439.1
9    Yankees                  2007       30   1446
10   Yankees                  2008       28   1441.2
11   Yankees                  2009       19   1450
12   Yankees                  2005      -11   1430.2
13   Yankees                  2006      -14   1443.2
14   Yankees                  2004      -41   1443.2

It’s clear: This current pitching staff, built by Cashman, is better than the 2004-2005-2006 disaster pitching staffs built by Brian Cashman. But, this year’s model is not as good as the Yankees staffs from the two seasons before it (2008 and 2007) – in terms of saving runs above average. And, it’s not nearly as good as those 1996-2003 pitching staffs featured in Yankeeland.

The “reader” did not share their basis for this claim that Cashman has built the “best pitching staff [in New York] since 2003.” Maybe they made it up? But, anyone who wants to make that claim is ignoring the stats and the facts and just blowing nonsense out their pie hole.

In any event, thanks for the e-mail – as it helped establish another reason why those who want to credit Brian Cashman for a job well-done this season are just pushing hype.

And, when Damon reaches base one time or less in a game, the Yankees record is 38-31.

Rk	TEAM		RSAA
1	Giants		118
2	Cubs		108
3	Rockies		81
4	Dodgers		76
5	Mariners	73
6	Braves		65
7	White Sox	62
8	Cardinals	60
9	Red Sox		39
10	Marlins		34
10	Rangers		34
12	Tigers		30
13	Diamondbacks	24
14	Phillies	20
14	Twins		20
16	A's		19
17	Yankees		16
18	Rays		14
19	Angels		0
20	Royals		-3
21	Reds		-8
22	Blue Jays	-23
23	Pirates		-48
24	Mets		-63
25	Astros		-83
26	Orioles		-99
27	Padres		-119
28	Indians		-133
29	Brewers		-135
30	Nationals	-136

As you can see, the Yankees do not rank well here, in terms of team RSAA, placing 17th overall in the majors and 8th overall in the A.L. (just a tick ahead of 9th). So, how about the pitchers on the Yankees, how do they currently rank in RSAA (through last night’s game)? Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, here are those numbers:

PITCHER	 	RSAA	  IP	 H/9 IP	  ERA     SO/BB
C.C. Sabathia	26	230.0	1.54	  1.10     0.92
Mariano Rivera	19	65.1	2.63	  2.67     3.89
Phil Hughes	13	85.2	2.10	  1.42     1.37
A.J. Burnett	7	202.0	0.96	  0.36     -.02
Alfredo Aceves	7	81.2	1.64	  0.83     2.10
Andy Pettitte	6	190.1	0.40	  0.35     0.02
David Robertson	5	42.2	1.65	  1.09     0.67
Chad Gaudin	4	40.2	0.39	  0.92     -.42
Brian Bruney	2	39.0	0.94	  0.54     -.46
Josh Towers	1	5.1	-0.88	  1.09     -.02
Mark Melancon	1	16.1	2.08	  0.61    -1.02
Ian Kennedy	0	1.0	9.24	  4.46    -1.52
Nick Swisher	0	1.0	0.24	  4.46    -1.02
Michael Dunn	-1	4.0	2.49	 -2.29    -1.02
Phil Coke	-1	59.1	2.57	  -.09     0.38
Brett Tomko	-2	20.2	0.97	  -.76     -.45
Edwar Ramirez	-3	22.0	-0.98	 -1.26     -.80
Jo. Albaladejo	-3	34.1	-1.50	  -.78     -.71
Jose Veras	-4	25.2	1.18	 -1.50     -.74
J.Chamberlain	-7	156.1	-0.37	  -.32     -.29
Damaso Marte	-7	13.1	-0.88	 -4.99     0.14
An. Claggett	-9	2.2	-27.88	-29.29    -1.27
Sergio Mitre	-14	51.2	-3.12	 -2.33     0.44
Chien-Ming Wang	-24	42.0	-4.90	 -5.18     -.50

 Note:
H/9 IP = HITS/9 IP vs. the league average
ERA = ERA vs. the league average
SO/BB = STRIKEOUTS/WALKS vs. the league average

Wow!

CC Sabathia, Mo Rivera and Phil Hughes combine for +58 RSAA – and, yet, as a team, the Yankees only have +16 RSAA on the season.

What does this all tell us? Well, it says that:

• Damaso Marte, Anthony Claggett, Sergio Mitre, and Chien-Ming Wang were terrible this season.
• CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes were great this year.
• And, everyone else on the Yankees pretty much performed, on the whole, like a league average pitcher.

Does that sound like a World Champion pitching staff to you? Or, does it sound like just another typical Brian Cashman built pitching squad?

Note: This entry was posted at 9:32 am ET today. However, since then, I’ve learned that there was an issue with the CBE where players who debuted in 2009 were added to the database three times, which resulted in those players having their stats tripled in the sorting feature. It’s since been corrected and I have now edited this post (at 4:40 pm ET). See the comments section below to see what was changed in addition to the stats.