I was thinking this AM that Ivan Nova is doing pretty good this season for a pitcher his age.  So, I decided to look at pitchers age 25 or younger this year in the majors.  Here’s that list:

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O.K, so, he’s not one of the best in his age group.  But, he’s still on the positive side – and that’s good.

Is it just me, or, do more than a few teams have four pitchers on this list? How come the Yankees can’t do that?

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Yes, it’s a very small sample size. But, over his last 35 PA, Jorge Posada’s BA/OBA/SLG line is .469/.486/.531 – and his BA is .302 over his last 111 PA.

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With their loss this evening, the Yankees are now:

• 3-4 in their last 7 games
• 9-7 in their last 15 games
• 16-15 in their last 31 games
• 19-19 in their last 38 games
• 24-22 in their last 46 games

No matter how you slice it – long, medium, or short – the Yankees are basically a “win one, lose one” team, no?  Pretty soon, they better start winning closer to 60% of their games rather than closer to 50% of their games.  This treading water thing is getting old in a hurry.

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Here are Brett Gardner’s career big league stats, to date:

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Note his Slugging Percentage the last three seasons. Pretty consistent, huh?

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Since July 1, 2010, in his last 127 games, Nick Swisher has a BA/OBA/SLG line of .261/.348/.448 (in 487 AB). In addition, he has 21 HR and 68 RBI during this span.

Now, that’s not terrible. But, it’s not the “thump” that you would expect from a right fielder in the American League.

But, maybe that’s just me?  What do you think?  Are you happy with the production the Yankees are getting from Swisher?  Or, if they had a chance to upgrade in right, should they go for it?

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Since July 1, 2010, in his last 142 games, Robinson Cano has a BA/OBA/SLG line of .282/.342/.495 (in 554 AB).

Those are still very good numbers for a second baseman.  Put those up, year after year, for a dozen years or so, and maybe people will talk about you joining the rest of the second-sackers in Cooperstown.

But, in Yankeeland this season, many think that Cano is having a down year and they want to know where the Cano of last year went.  How about you?  What do you think of Cano’s performance this season and over the last 140 games that he has played?  Happy with it, or, want to see more?

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Here they are, as of this morning:

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O.K., I’ll just hang up now and listen to your reaction…

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See the numbers below – which are this season to date:

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What is “Clutch” above? It’s WPA divided by aLI – WPA/LI. The context dependent WPA is divided by the average leverage minus context-neutral situational wins. You can read more about it here. But, in everyday speak, it tells you who is stat padding with garbage time production – if I understand it correctly.

If you want a point of comparison, A-Rod was best in the A.L., at his position, in 2007 in this stat during his opt-out year:

Of course, this season is still young and Alex can improve on his mark here – and hopefully he will.

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Curtis Granderson hit his 16th HR of the year yesterday – in the Yankees 45th game of the season.  Prior to this, how many other Yankees have hit 16+ HR within the team’s first 45 games of the year?  Here’s the list:

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That’s pretty crazy company for the Grandy Man, ain’t it. So, is he the next Roger Maris?

I don’t know the answer.  But, to be candid, if Granderson had been traded to the Red Sox instead of the Yankees and, all of a sudden, starting blasting homeruns at a Ruthian pace, I’d probably be on the front of the line of those demanding that someone gets him to pee in a cup.

Maybe Curtis’ 2011 is a lot like Ryne Sandberg’s 1990 – just one of those HR spike years at age 30?  In any event, it will be interesting to see if Granderson keeps up his pace this season.  Can he hit 50 HR this year?  If he keeps cranking them out at his current rate, he’ll clear that with no problem.

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From April 19th through May 18th, the Yankees went 14-14.

Their team ERA during this time was an outstanding 3.21 in 257.6 IP.

Meanwhile, during this time, their hitters had a BA/OBA/SLG line of .253/.342/.425 and averaged 5 runs scored per game.

So, why the 14-14 mark?

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Derek Jeter’s BA/OBA/SLG in his last 112 PA: .282/.321/.388

Not great. But, not terrible either.

In any event, still not what you want from someone in the top of your line-up. More like a solid #8 hitter.

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Look at the stats below. The Yankees score a lot of runs because they hit a lot of homeruns. But, in terms of batting average, New York is just league average. And, it does seem like Jeter, Teixeira, Swisher, A-Rod and others are not hitting for average like they should be this season. So, why do we only talk about how great Kevin Long is when Curtis Granderson hits a homerun or doesn’t whiff against a lefty; but, we never talk about how he’s doing nothing with all these Yankees stars under-performing?

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In his last 19 games, Alex Rodriguez has 3 extra base hits – two doubles and a homer – over his last 81 Plate Appearances.  His BA/OBA/SLG line over this period is: .183/.272/.254

Now, personally, I know that A-Rod is going to hit 15 homeruns during the month of September and that will offset his power being MIA at this time.

But, what about you? Are you concerned that A-Rod’s pop has gone south – way down south – over the last month or so?

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Since 1919, how many Yankees batters had 15+ games within the team’s first 35 games of the season where they had at least 3 PA in the contest with no hits?

Here’s the list -

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Jorge Posada still has a shot at setting “the record” here.  The Yankees have only played 33 games so far this season.

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In his last 13 games, from April 16th through May 4th, Alex Rodriguez’s BA/OBA/SLG line is .143/.232/.245 (in 56 PA). He has also whiffed in 13 of his last 49 ABs.

You can’t get much colder than that. Seems like it was just yesterday that A-Rod was tearing it up in Spring Training.

Hopefully #13 will see better days ahead – and soon.

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Here are the numbers to date for the Yankees Starting Pitching in terms of how often they have a “Quality Start”:

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So, about half of the time, the Yankees get 6+ innings out of their starter where he allows 3 ER or less.  And, that’s below league average.  And, that’s not good.  How about their bullpen?  How often, to date, are they allowing inherited runners to score?  Here are those numbers:

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Now, that’s much better!  Clearly, the Yankees pitching success, this season – again, to date – has been all about their bullpen and less about their starting pitching.  It will be nice if the ‘pen can keep this up.  But, it will be even better if the starters do better than we’ve seen, so far.

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Nick Swisher’s first 21 games of 2008: BA/OBA/SLG line of .232/.393/.333 in 89 PA.
Nick Swisher’s first 21 games of 2011: BA/OBA/SLG line of .208/.326/.236 in 89 PA.

By most accounts, 2008 was the worst season of Swisher’s career. Is he going to repeat that and have a bad year in 2011? What do you think?

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Good news – the Yankees are 12-8 and in first place in the A.L. East.

Bad news – the Yankees are 4-0 this season against Baltimore and 8-8 when they play someone other than the O’s.

Now, at that rate, the Yankees will still be a 90-win team in 2011. But, anyone who thinks the Yankees are going to win 95-100 games this season, based on their 12-8 record to date, is fooling themselves.

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Most HR in baseball since Auust 12, 2010:

Player			G	AB	HR
Jose	Bautista	 	67	236	26
Troy	Tulowitzki	67	257	24
Albert	Pujols		68	252	21
Curtis	Granderson	59	230	21
Jay	Bruce		47	182	17
David	Wright		67	254	17
Alex	Rodriguez		44	164	17
Miguel	Cabrera		61	221	17
Paul	Konerko		62	237	16
Ryan	Braun		66	253	16
Matt	Kemp		65	253	15
Pat	Burrell		63	202	15
Jayson	Werth		63	241	14
Ryan	Raburn		56	247	14
Adrian	Beltre		64	243	14
Buster	Posey		63	245	14
Mike	Napoli		45	155	13
Mike	Stanton		59	219	13
Joey	Votto		63	228	13
Hunter	Pence		70	278	13
Mark	Teixeira		64	238	13
Jim	Thome		42	134	12
Drew	Stubbs		62	239	12
Dan	Uggla		70	266	12
Russell	Branyan		38	149	12
Pablo	Sandoval		55	206	12
Nelson	Cruz		52	200	12
Jorge	Posada		49	179	12
Carlos	Lee		71	274	12
Robbien	Cano		66	268	12
Jed	Lowrie		44	177	12
Kelly	Johnson		61	248	12
Victor	Martinez		61	242	12

Is Curtis Granderson the best slugging Yankees CF since Bobby Murcer?

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It’s an interesting list. Here’s the Top 50:

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Note what happens when you take the Top 50 and sort them by Winning Percentage in those games where they had a Quality Start:

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CC Sabathia almost always gets a win when he throws a Quality Start for the Yankees. And, he’s only been tagged with an “L” in a “QS” three times as a Yankee. Amazing.

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Well, you don’t see that everyday.

(more…)

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If you combine his last 188 AB from 2010 to his first 29 AB of 2011, then Curtis Granderson is batting .235 in his last 217 AB.

Then again, in his last 1,126 AB since 2009, Granderson is batting .246 over that span.

If you ask me, Granderson is just a .240 hitter. And, this goes back even more than “Since 2009.” Over his last 213 AB in 2008, Granderson hit just .235.

So, over his last 1,339 regular season ABs, Granderson’s BA has been a .244 hitter. (No pun intended on the “has been” part.) Therefore, why should we expect anything else from him at this point?

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Crazy, huh?

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Here they are:

Player		AB	HR	RBI	SO	SB	OBP	SLG	AVG
Vazquez		34	3	8	11	0	.444	.765	.412
Chavez		43	1	4	6	0	.422	.558	.395
Rodriguez	49	6	15	7	0	.444	.898	.388
Granderson	39	3	7	7	2	.442	.795	.385
Krum		17	0	2	1	2	.429	.412	.353
Jeter		56	0	0	3	2	.328	.375	.304
Teixeira	51	1	7	10	0	.410	.569	.294
Martin		42	1	5	5	1	.373	.381	.262
Gardner		50	1	5	8	4	.373	.460	.260
Swisher		59	1	8	12	0	.274	.339	.254
Montero		40	0	2	8	0	.286	.300	.250
Nunez		57	1	7	5	6	.290	.333	.246
Cano		55	2	8	6	0	.276	.382	.236
Maxwell		36	0	3	12	2	.349	.250	.222
Pena		41	0	2	4	1	.214	.220	.220
Posada		46	1	7	11	0	.357	.326	.217
Romine		23	2	2	3	0	.280	.522	.217
Parraz		19	0	2	3	0	.286	.211	.211
Mesa		27	0	2	6	1	.313	.259	.185
Jones		44	1	5	10	0	.265	.318	.182
Russo		21	0	3	6	0	.208	.143	.143
Belliard	22	0	1	6	0	.136	.182	.136
Laird		26	0	2	7	0	.143	.154	.115
Bernier		17	0	1	10	0	.238	.059	.059
Molina		18	0	2	10	0	.217	.056	.056

Player		W	ERA	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO
Rivera		0	0.00	5.0	3	0	0	0	6
Ayala		0	0.79	11.1	9	1	0	0	9
Prior		0	1.04	8.2	4	1	0	5	12
Warren		0	1.59	5.2	4	1	0	3	5
Nova		2	1.80	20.0	11	4	1	4	9
Sisco		0	2.08	4.1	1	1	0	4	2
Banuelos	1	2.13	12.2	10	3	1	8	14
Colon		1	2.25	16.0	10	4	1	1	17
Feliciano	0	2.25	4.0	5	1	0	0	6
Wordekemper	0	2.70	6.2	7	2	1	2	4
Burnett		1	2.77	13.0	9	4	2	0	11
Soriano		1	3.18	5.2	6	2	0	0	7
Sabathia	1	3.31	16.1	17	6	2	3	10
Chamberlain	0	3.38	8.0	10	3	1	2	7
Mitchell	0	3.60	5.0	5	2	1	0	5
Pope		0	3.60	5.0	5	2	0	0	2
Robertson	0	3.68	7.1	4	3	0	3	14
Sanchez		0	3.86	7.0	9	3	0	7	4
Noesi		1	4.00	9.0	10	4	3	1	7
Hughes		1	4.09	22.0	24	10	4	3	14
Garcia		1	4.91	18.1	17	10	2	4	15
Garrison	0	5.23	10.1	14	6	1	2	5
Logan		1	5.40	6.2	10	4	0	1	12
Betances	0	6.00	6.0	6	4	0	7	8
Phelps		1	10.50	6.0	16	7	1	4	8

OK, now…throw them out the window. The real stuff starts tomorrow – and that’s what counts!

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Mark Simon offers lots of good numbers on Derek Jeter – including this one:

Lastly, Jeter has had a remarkable knack at hitting ‘em where they ain’t, as evidenced by his Batting Average on Balls in Play.

When Jeter puts the ball in play, he’s among the game’s most accurate batsmen. Depending on which formula you use to calculate BABIP (one includes sacrifice flies, one doesn’t), Jeter’s BABIP of .358 (or .356) ranks among the very best in the sport.

Entering 2011, Jeter’s .314 batting average ranks 56th best since 1913 (we use that year because it’s the first year for which strikeout totals exist).

Strip away the home runs and strikeouts and Jeter’s BABIP is fifth-best in that span, a near match for Ichiro Suzuki and Rod Carew, two players best known for being able to guide the baseball into spots where they were most likely to get hits. Jeter’s prowess in that regard is one of the rare things about him that seems to go unrecognized.

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How many players in big league history had a season like A-Rod’s season last year, when they were the same age as Alex was in that year?

To get the answer, I ran some numbers on the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. And, this is what I got:

Batter                        YEAR     RCAA      PA      RCAA      OWP      OPS
1    Jermaine Dye             2008       19      645       19     .591     .128
T2   Bob Johnson              1941       18      653       18     .586     .105
T2   Tilly Walker             1922       18      645       18     .579     .136
4    Alex Rodriguez           2010       17      595       17     .590     .111
5    Vladimir Guerrero        2010       15      643       15     .577     .105
T6   Magglio Ordonez          2008       13      623       13     .570     .112
T6   Baby Doll Jacobson       1925       13      602       13     .560     .115
8    Cy Williams              1922       11      676       11     .543     .127

Filter used: SEASON where AGE = 34, PLATE APPEARANCES >= 580, RCAA BETWEEN 10 AND 20, OWP < .6 and OPS > .1 vs. the league average

So, there you have it. A-Rod’s season last year was right on par with Jermaine Dye and Magglio Ordonez’ 2008, and, with Vladimir Guerrero’s season last year.

As a Yankees fan, how do you feel about seeing this level of production from Rodriguez? And, how excited or worried are you about his production in 2011 and the years to come?

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Stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. From A-Rod to Melky, and from Mo to Ponson, here’s all the boys Brian Cashman has carried on the Yankees roster over the last 5 years and how they’ve done, overall.

(more…)

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Here’s one way to slice it:

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The slice: Yankees teams from 2001 to 2010 – show pitchers with ERA+ <=99 with at least 15 games & at least 50% GS

Think 2011 will match the high mark here with 3+ pitchers making the list?  Probably.  Shoot, this might just be the year we see 4 such pitchers on a Yankees team.  When was the last time that happened? That would be 1991. A long, long time ago…

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I’ve written in the past about the singular greatness of Alex Rodriguez’ 2009 post-season.

And, if my narrative on that was not enough. How about some stats that support just how great it was? Click here to see how A-Rod was a machine during that run. And, click here to see how clutch he was during that post-season.

Bottom line, there is an extremely strong case to be made that A-Rod’s 2009 post-season was one of the best overall offensive performances by a single player on a team who won a World Championship in the last 30 years of baseball history – if not the best “such season” ever.

Sure, we all know about Barry Bonds’ 2002 post-season - but, the Giants didn’t win it all that year.  And, David Ortiz was super for the Red Sox post-season of 2004.  But, he didn’t do it day-in and day-out, consistently, for Boston in that run like Rodriquez did for the Yankees in ’09.  Another player to consider would be Troy Glaus in 2002.   He was a monster who carried the Angels that post-season to their ring - but,  he was not quite at the level of A-Rod in ’09.  (It is interesting that Bonds, Ortiz, Glaus and A-Rod are in the team picture here – since they all have been linked to PED-usage in the past.)

Seeing all this, what would you say?  Was Alex Rodriguez’ 2009 the best overall post-season by a player on a World Series winner ever?  If not, how about over the last 30 years?  And, if not, why?

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…well, how can it not be “King Felix”?

See the numbers:

Pitcher                          RSAA      IP       N_W      N_L    BR/9 IP vs Lge Avg
1    Felix Hernandez              41    249.2       18        7     2.63
2    C.C. Sabathia                35    237.2       18       10     1.46
3    Jon Lester                   25    208         18       10     1.19
4    David Price                  23    208.2       16        9     1.48
5    C.J. Wilson                  22    204         14        9     0.79
6    Jered Weaver                 21    224.1       15       10     2.77
7    Cliff Lee                    20    212.1       13        8     3.37
T8   Gio Gonzalez                 18    200.2       14       10     0.46
T8   Justin Verlander             18    224.1       16       11     1.73
10   John Danks                   17    213         15       11     1.33

Source: Complete Baseball Encyclopedia

But, if it goes to CC Sabathia, it’s not as huge a crime as if the award went to…say…A.J. Burnett…

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