• July & August 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    Posted by on September 1st, 2010 · Comments (1)

    I missed doing the review for July last month. So, I’m going to use this one as a catch-up.

    Oh, what the heck, let’s just look at the whole shebang to date. Here it is:

    • April 2010:I expected a record of 13-9 and the Yankees actually went 15-7.
    • May 2010:I expected a record of 17-12 and the Yankees actually went 16-13.
    • June 2010:I expected a record of 15-11 and the Yankees actually went 16-10.
    • July 2010: – I expected a record of 16-10 and the Yankees actually went 19-7.
    • August 2010: – I expected a record of 18-11 and the Yankees actually went 16-13.

    So, today, the Yankees record is 82-50 compared to an expected record of 79-53 at this junction.

    Therefore, in my opinion, the Yankees have performed, so far this season, three wins better than what could be reasonably expected. Considering some of the player performance issues that they’ve encountered this season at various times, that’s pretty darn good. Let’s just hope they can keep it up in September and anything that follows.

    Add on: For those interested, the Yankees Pythagorean W-L record sits at 83-49 today. Another sign that they’re pretty much meeting expectations, for some, I suppose…

    Yankees September 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on August 27th, 2010 · Comments (0)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of September 2010, the New York Yankees should win 15 games and lose 12 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    But, perhaps the bigger question is: How many games will the Tampa Bay Rays win in September? It would not shock me to see the Rays win as many as 17 games in September. So, we could be looking at a real dog fight, down to the wire, in the A.L. East this season.

    Yankees August 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on July 30th, 2010 · Comments (2)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of August 2010, the New York Yankees should win 18 games and lose 11 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    How are they going to get that many wins? Simple: They have 16 home games in August plus four road games against the Royals. That’s like a dozen wins, right there. And, if they just go 5-4 in their other road games, then you have 17 wins. But, they’ll do better than 5-4. In fact, with an 18-win August, I expect the Yankees to pretty much lock up the Wild Card as they head into September.

    June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    Posted by on June 30th, 2010 · Comments (8)

    Heading into this month, I thought that it would be reasonable, all things considered, if the Yankees went 15-11 for the month of June.

    And, in reality, the Yankees went 16-10 – which is one better than I expected. Give credit to the schedule here – as the Yankees went 13-3 this month against the Tribe, O’s, Astros and D’backs who are all terrible this season. In any event, this all warrants giving the Yankees a birdie for the month of June 2010.

    How about a review of the first three months, now that they’re in the books? Here goes:

    • April 2010:I expected a record of 13-9 and the Yankees actually went 15-7.
    • May 2010:I expected a record of 17-12 and the Yankees actually went 16-13.
    • June 2010:I expected a record of 15-11 and the Yankees actually went 16-10.

    In total, overall, for the first three months, I expected the Yankees to go 45-32 and the team went 47-30 in reality.

    Therefore, at this junction of the season, the Yankees are just two games better than I would expect them to be – all things considered.

    Is that good, or, bad? You tell me…

    Yankees July 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on June 28th, 2010 · Comments (0)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of July 2010, the New York Yankees should win 16 games and lose 10 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    The Yankees really beat up on some bad teams in June. And, I expect them to take advantage of the weak teams who they will play in July as well – meaning the A’s, M’s, Royals and Indians. And, if New York does play 6 games over .500 in July (or better) I suspect that the bulk of that spread will come via wins against Oakland, Seattle, Kansas City and Cleveland.

    May 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    Posted by on June 1st, 2010 · Comments (0)

    Heading into this month, I thought that it would be reasonable, all things considered, if the Yankees went 17-12 for the month of May.

    And, in reality, the Yankees went 16-13 – which is just one off the expected mark.

    This warrants giving the Yankees a bogey for the month of May 2010. (And, since they got an eagle for April, overall, this season, the Yankees record, to date, is pretty much what it should be…at least to me.)

    Yankees June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on May 31st, 2010 · Comments (2)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of June 2010, the New York Yankees should win 15 games and lose 11 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    I know that doesn’t seem like much – winning just four more than they lose. But, June is a funky month – with 12 road games, inter-league play, and series against the Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers…who, all, would like to beat the Yankees. This doesn’t imply that the O’s, ‘Stros, D-Backs and M’s don’t want to beat the Yankees up this month too. More so, it’s just that those four teams shouldn’t be able to win series against the Yankees whereas the other teams have some more talent.

    April 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    Posted by on May 1st, 2010 · Comments (0)

    Heading into this month, I thought that it would be reasonable, all things considered, if the Yankees went 13-9 for the month of April.

    And, in reality, the Yankees went 15-7 – which is two wins better than I expected. Nice.

    And, that warrants giving the Yankees an eagle for the month of April 2010.

    Yankees May 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on April 29th, 2010 · Comments (7)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of May 2010, the New York Yankees should win 17 games and lose 12 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    That would be .586 baseball for the month – which is the win rate I expect the Yankees to have overall this season.

    Yes, sure, there are some tough teams on the Yankees ledger for May. But, there are also a lot of home games in May too. And, they should take advantage of that…when they can…

    Yankees April 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on April 5th, 2010 · Comments (6)

    Something new this year at WasWatching.com -

    At the start of each month, or thereabouts, I’m going to look at the Yankees schedule for the month, and provide a number of wins and losses that we should see for New York (that month). Please keep in mind that this is not a prediction or a forecast. More so, this is me looking at the Yankees schedule, one month at a time, and considering who they play, when they play them, and where they play, and then coming up with what is a reasonable amount of wins a team such as the Yankees should have over that given period of time.

    And, then, of course, once the month is over, we can compare the Yankees actual results to what I felt they should have done – given that month’s schedule, their opponents, etc. (And, yes, the formula I’m using is somewhat unscientific, back of the envelope in nature, and very proprietary, so, I won’t be sharing all the details on it.)

    For the month of April 2010, the New York Yankees should win 13 games and lose 9 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it. Now, let’s see how they actually do this month.