The Gauntlet Of ‘08

Via the Times -

With 38 games to play, 10 games to make up on Tampa Bay in the division race and five and a half games to make up on Boston in the wild-card race, the Yankees face a difficult, but not insurmountable, task in trying to assure themselves a postseason berth.

The 2004 Houston Astros are the only team to come from seven games back through 122 games or later to earn a wild-card berth, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Yankees trailed the Red Sox by seven through 122 games, before cutting two games off Boston’s lead by beating Kansas City on Saturday and Sunday.

The Yankees can also draw hope from last year’s Philadelphia Phillies, who overtook the collapsing Mets for the National League East title after being seven games back with just 17 to play.

But the Yankees are also entering a stretch in which they will play 16 of their next 22 games on the road, including the makeup of a May 11 rainout at Detroit that begins a 10-day trip to Tampa Bay, Seattle and Anaheim. That could be troublesome for a team that is 28-31 outside the Bronx and dropped 7 of 10 games on its most recent trip.

It’s hard to believe that just one month ago the Yankees were sitting pretty in the Wildcard chase - just two games back of the lead. And, now, New York is five games back of Boston in the Wildcard standings.

With 38 games to go, the Yankees are not totally dead in this chase - but, it’s getting close…very close. And, by September 11th, when the Yankees complete that run of 16 road games in their next 22 contests, we’ll know for sure if they have any hope for this season…or if they will be 100% dead in the water.

The Yankees went though something like this back in August of 2006 and doggy-paddled their way through it. Somehow, I don’t think that’s going to cut it this time.

August 19, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | Leave a Comment

Clock Struck 12 On Ramirez & Veras?

Jose Veras, since July 10th: 12 games, 10.6 IP, 4.22 ERA

Edwar Ramirez, since June 24th: 18 games, 18.6 IP, 5.30 ERA

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

August 10, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 6 Comments

Moose: I’m The Sole Survivor!

Mussina Wins Yanks Starting Pitcher Survivor Series!

Via Mark Feinsand in the News today -

As if the Yankees didn’t have enough problems in the starting rotation already, it now appears that Andy Pettitte might be forced to miss his next start.

According to a source with knowledge of the situation, Pettitte has been experiencing stiffness in his left arm, though it is unclear whether it is his shoulder or elbow that has been bothering him.

The issue will likely keep the lefthander from taking the mound on Sunday in Anaheim, which would force the Yankees to find yet another arm to fill a spot in the rotation.

Pettitte has been hit hard in each of his last two outings, giving up nine runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels on July 31 and five runs in five innings on Tuesday night against the Rangers.

Darrell Rasner, who was yanked from the rotation this week in favor of Dan Giese, is the only possible option on the active roster to take Pettitte’s start. The Yankees could also dip down to the minors for Chase Wright, Alfredo Aceves or Kei Igawa, though none are on the 40-man roster.

Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, and now Pettitte.

When it rains, it pours, no? Really, can it get any worse than this? I feel sorry for Pettitte. This must be eating him up on the inside. And, it may impact his contract for next season too.

Just another reason to think “Chase Wright” - if I do say so myself…

August 7, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 4 Comments

Joba Has Rotator Cuff Tendinitis

The Yankees are saying that Joba Chamberlain has “rotator cuff tendinitis.”

Treatment may just be a matter of rest and anti-inflammatory medication. Or, perhaps, it may require some arthroscopic surgery. That latter suggestion is mine - and not something coming from the Yankees now.

Then again, sometimes “rotator cuff tendinitis” is very bad news. Mark Fidrych had it when he was 22-years old - and never was the same. Former Brewer Jeff D’Amico had it when he was 25-years old - and coming off a super season as a 24-year old - and it ruined his career. Kris Benson had it when he was 28-years old - and it was all downhill for him from there. Mark Prior had it when he was 25-years old and that was the end for him - although he was injury-prone before that. And, I believe that Hideo Nomo had it, albeit as a 35-year old, and he was then cooked.

With this type of thing, you just don’t know…sometimes…

Buster Olney said it best, four years ago -

Tendinitis: Like inflammation, it says something and says nothing. Tendinitis is a symptom, rather than the source of the problem; it’s like saying a player has a runny nose, rather than addressing why he has a runny nose. “You say a player has tendinitis and what might really be going on is that he has loose cartilage in his knee,” said one executive. “You say a pitcher has tendinitis, and it might be that he’s got a serious tear. When you get right down to it, tendinitis could cover any number of things.”

And, when it comes to Joba, you now have to wonder what is “the source of the problem” - and hope that it’s not something serious.

August 6, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 1 Comment

Four Days Foward, Three Games Back

Here’s where the Yankees sat, in the A.L. East, on July 28th (four days ago):

Team	  W	L
Rays	  61	44
Red Sox	  61	46
Yankees	  58	47

Here’s where the Yankees now sit, in the A.L. East, at the close of business, August 1st:

Team	  W	L
Rays	  64	44
Red Sox	  62	48
Yankees	  59	50

So, in a span of four days, the Yankees have gone from being just three back in the loss column behind the first-place Rays to being (now) six games back in the loss column. And, there are now just 53 games left to the season.

On the bright side, presently, the Yankees are only two games back in the loss column behind the A.L. Wildcard leading Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins. Let’s hope that gap doesn’t increase in the next four days…like the gap between the Yanks and the Rays did…so quickly.

August 2, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | Leave a Comment

The Giambi Cookie

Jason Giambi’s 2008, to date, in three slices:

His first 26 games: 104 PA, BA/OBP/SLG line: .150/.317/.375
His next 43 games: 171 PA, BA/OBP/SLG line: .336/.456/.657
His last 20 games: 75 PA, BA/OBP/SLG line: .190/.360/.397

Anyone else anxiously awaiting Jason’s next “on” cycle? Any time Big G…any time at all would be fine.

July 28, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 2 Comments

Kepner: Posada Could Be Done For Year

Via Tyler Kepner -

Jorge Posada, the proud Yankees catcher whose throwing has been obviously impaired by a labrum injury, said he is considering season-ending shoulder surgery. Posada will have a magnetic resonance imaging test on Tuesday to assess the extent of the damage to a shoulder problem that will not go away.

“Whatever the team wants me to do,” Posada said after speaking with Manager Joe Girardi and General Manager Brian Cashman. “We’re looking at some situations. I can’t catch right now. I’m hurting and every throw hurts. It’s been like that the whole year. We’re looking at every scenario.”

Posada said this surgery would be more intensive that his last surgery, which occurred after the 2001 season. He was ready for spring training the next February, but he said the surgery this time could carry a six-month recovery period. Having surgery now could be Posada’s only option to start 2009 healthy.

…I can’t catch right now. I’m hurting and every throw hurts…

Ten days ago, I suggested that ‘Sado should shut it down for the season if he was not sound enough to play to the level expected from him. So, while this is sad news to hear, it’s the right thing to do.

At this point, you just have to cross your fingers and hope this is something that can be fixed for next year.

July 21, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | Leave a Comment

Godzilla Likely Going Under Knife

Via Mark Feinsand -

Matsui was examined by team doctor Stuart Hershon before Friday night’s game, as the outfielder/DH said through an interpreter he had been told to “avoid activities and stay quiet” through the weekend. Matsui, who has had continued swelling in the knee, said the possibility of surgery was still “out there,” though no timetable has been discussed.

On Monday, Matsui will visit Dr. Scott Rodeo, who performed the arthroscopic surgery on Matsui’s right knee last November. Following that appointment, the Yankees should have a better idea of Matsui’s status.

“Then we will have a plan of attack whether it is surgery or a more conservative approach,” general manager Brian Cashman said. “Surgery is certainly moving up the list of options.”

This is such a shame - because Matsui, when he’s sound enough to play, can hit. If you discount his first season in the majors as an adjustment year, since his second year in the bigs, to date, Godzilla is one of the top twenty batters in the league. Yes, he’s not in the class of A-Rod, Papi, Manny, or Vladimir Guerrero. But, he’s right up there with guys like Carlos Guillen, Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko…guys who all not future Hall-of-Famers but who are still “All-Star” bats.

No one saw this coming. Who would have expected the Japanese Cal Ripken Jr. to turn into the Japanese Tony Oliva once he left Japan for the United States? And, this is not a Carl Pavano type situation. You can tell that Hideki Matsui is a gamer. He wants to play. It’s just a matter of his body not allowing him to follow what his head and heart wants to do…

July 19, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 3 Comments

Eric Milton?

From the AP -

Left-hander Eric Milton, taken in the first round of the 1996 amateur draft by the Yankees and traded two years later to Minnesota in Chuck Knoblauch deal, is set to rejoin the organization. Milton, who had elbow surgery last June, started working out Friday at the Yankees’ minor league complex.

Milton was 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA in six starts last season with Cincinnati. He threw in the outfield as part of Friday’s session.

Eric Milton? Amazing.

Who’s next on the Cashman tryout list? Paul Wilson? Jaime Navarro? Jason Bere? Jose Lima? Joey Hamilton? Ismael Valdes?

Somewhere, I see the phones for Tim Leary, Andy Hawkins, Dave LaPoint, Chuck Cary, and Mike Witt ringing with the caller ID reading “Cashman, Brian 718-293-6000.”

July 11, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 8 Comments

The Bumpy Road Ahead For A-Rod This Season

Via George King -

As his teammates jumped into dress slacks and shirts with buttons for a flight to Pittsburgh late yesterday afternoon, Alex Rodriguez donned jeans, a T-shirt and bolted the Yankees’ clubhouse long before the team bus split for the airport.

Rodriguez, who is at the beginning of what many predict will be a nasty divorce, didn’t accompany the Yankees to Pittsburgh. Instead, he will arrive today for tonight’s makeup game against the Pirates.

“He had to take care of something,” Joe Girardi said of Rodriguez and wouldn’t elaborate further.

I was just thinking about this yesterday…watching the afternoon news during lunch…and making note of all the coverage the media - both the tabliods and ‘mainstream’ outlets - is throwing at the Christie Brinkley divorce case.

I mean…Christie Brinkley? Do we really care that Christie Brinkley is getting divorced?

If the Brinkley case is any yardstick, the A-Rod divorce case - because of his money, because he’s a Yankee, and because of the Madonna factor - is going to be a media circus.

And, how that’s going to be a good thing for Alex, and the Yankees, this season…well, I just don’t see it happening…do you?

July 10, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 6 Comments

Klapisch: ~90% Chance Yanks Miss Post-Season

Bob Klapisch, using findings from CoolStandings.com, reports that the Yankees have a 4.4 percent chance of winning the division and an 8.7 percent possibility of gaining a wild-card berth (in 2008).

Man, that’s a lot worse than this time last year.

It’s all uphill from here Yankees fans. All uphill, indeed.

July 8, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 12 Comments

Victor Zambrano?

Via Mark Feinsand -

Scott Kazmir is pitching at Yankee Stadium Tuesday night. Can Victor Zambrano be far behind?

In their never-ending quest to find starting pitching, the Yankees plan to send a scout to watch the free-agent righty throw sometime this week, according to a source.

Zambrano is infamous for being the pitcher the Mets got when they shipped highly touted prospect Kazmir to Tampa at the trading deadline in 2004.

Zambrano, who went 10-14 over three seasons with the Mets, pitched for Toronto and Baltimore last season, but hasn’t pitched in the majors this year. After being designated for assignment by Colorado at the end of spring training, Zambrano went 0-6 with a 9.45 ERA for the Rockies’ Triple-A club.

I can’t wait to see the “Cashman Kool-Aid Drinkers ‘Low Risk, High Reward’ Rationalization Party”™ if the Yankees actually sign Zambrano.

Victor Zambrano? Really? I guess that Bobby Witt wasn’t interested in pursuing a comeback…or else the Yankees would be looking at him too.

July 7, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 11 Comments

Posada’s Throwing Concerns

Via Newsday -

Jorge Posada’s shoulder is going to be a work in progress, unless the Yankees determine that it isn’t working. “Then we’ll have some decisions to make,” general manager Brian Cashman said.

The Rangers stole four bases in four tries against Posada Tuesday night, with the third of Ian Kinsler’s steals setting up the winning run. Joe Girardi said that shouldn’t all be put on the back of Posada, who was on the disabled list from April 28 to June 3 with right rotator cuff tendinitis.

“It takes everyone to throw someone out,” the manager said, adding that Posada is experiencing no pain. If anything, it is a matter of “getting underneath the ball” in his throwing motion. “I think I know his heart, I know how important playing is to him,” Girardi said.

But Cashman did acknowledge, “We’re staying with three catchers for a reason, because we’re still evaluating how he’s coming through this. I’ve seen some good throws and I’ve seen some times when he’s not throwing well. He’s not feeling any pain, he’s doing his work. Every day is a test and we see how he comes through those tests.”

With Hideki Matsui out, the Yankees have some options here. You can have Posada be the D.H. - or, play Posada at first and then have Jason Giambi be the D.H.

Shoot, Posada may be the Yankees first baseman next year (if he cannot catch) - so, why not have him get some time there this season?

The trick to all this is that Brett Gardner has to hit. You cannot have Jose Molina in the line-up everyday, along with a season-long slumping Cano (although Robby did look good last night) and a struggling Melky Cabrera. That’s like spotting the other team a free nine outs per game.

If Gardner can hit, and that forces Melky to the bench, then you can carry Molina’s weak bat. However, otherwise, the whole thing won’t work.

July 3, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 3 Comments

Murcer Slowed

Via the AP -

Bobby Murcer is receiving medical care in Oklahoma after treatment for cancer forced him to curtail his schedule last month.

The 62-year-old Yankee broadcaster and former star outfielder had surgery in December 2006, four days after being diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. He returned to the broadcast booth last season. His March biopsy showed no cancer, and Murcer broadcast his first game of the season May 2.

Murcer, who is gettng help in Oklahoma City, also is recovering from shingles, an outbreak of rash or skin blisters caused by the same virus that causes chickenpox. His family released a statement yesterday saying Murcer “remains hopeful that he will able to resume his broadcasting work down the road.” “The cancer treatment over the last 18 months has been intensive and has, as a side effect, somewhat compromised his immune system and made the fight all the more challenging,” the statement said. “While he has shown some measured improvement in recent days, this is clearly a major battle.”

I’m just about done reading Murcer’s book. (My review, here, is soon to follow.)

Based on what I saw when I got to meet Bobby last month, in terms of his appearance, plus reading things in his book - statements along the lines of “I’ve had a great life” and “My one goal is to be able to throw out the first pitch at the new Yankee Stadium” - make me suspect that Murcer’s condition truly has him in a weakened state. Let’s all hope for the best for Bobby. It’s been a long, rough, road for him. And, it’s very sad to see such a wonderful man have to deal with all this bad stuff.

July 1, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 3 Comments

Yanks Getting Kicked In The Jewels This Season?

Coming into this season, the general consensus of the experts was that Joba Chamberlain, Alan Horne, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Jose Tabata were the top five prospects in the Yankees farm system. (Note: I’m just listing them in alpha-order here.)

So, now that we’re half-way into 2008, what’s the current status of these five? Are they still on a good track? Or, have they regressed? Let’s look at each of them:

Joba Chamberlain: He’s been as real a deal as a real deal can be…no issues here.

Alan Horne: He’s missed about 8 starts this season due to injury. And, when he’s pitched the results have been so-so. Most recently, he’s complained of having a dead arm. When you’re 25-years old and pitching in Triple-A, and having a season like Horne is to date, you’re losing some of that luster off your prospect status star.

Austin Jackson: He’s 21-years old and playing in Double-A where the average age of both position players and pitchers (this year) is 24.6 years old. So, he’s young for where he’s playing - but he’s holding his own in the process. Maybe he’s not a can’t-miss, superstar to be, type prospect? But, he’s still a very good propsect and maybe the Yankees best position-player prospect (in terms of age, overall game, and resume to date) in their system.

Ian Kennedy: He flopped in the majors this season. And, he’s suffered a back-related injury for the second season in a row. Further, it seems that he’s slipped down in terms of what the big league staff thinks of him. It’s not a reach to say that Kennedy has taken a step backward, to date, in terms of his prospect status.

Jose Tabata: At 19-years old, he’s young for playing in Double-A. Maybe it was a mistake for the Yankees to have him at that level this season? He’s struggled with the bat this year, to date, and his defensive game has lapses. Worse, he’s getting the rep of being someone with a bad attitude. Right now, the only thing he has going for him is his age - as there are more questions around his prospect status, today, than there are good things to say.

So, in summary, it’s not all rainbows and cupcakes this season for the “crown jewels” of the Yankees farm system. Yes, Chamberlain is great. And, yes, Jackson appears to be on track. But, it’s not been a good season for Horne, Kennedy and Tabata.

The Horne and Kennedy thing is most distressing - because, when you add that to the poor seasons (this year) of young Yankees pitchers Phil Hughes, Jeffrey Marquez, and Dellin Betances (who, all three, were also rated very high by the experts as being high-potential young hurlers), it makes you wonder if the Yankees reported stockpile of young arms (in their system) is really everything that it’s cracked up to be…no?

June 29, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 25 Comments

Yanks Fooling Themselves With Prospects?

Via Ken Davidoff:

The Mets may be more likely to make the playoffs this year, thanks to their strong starting rotation and weak competition - and the Yankees’ weak starting rotation and strong competition. But over the next five seasons and beyond, the Yankees are much better positioned than their Flushing counterparts because of their considerably deeper farm system.

“We’ve been very aggressive in the amateur market, as we said we would be,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday. “We’ve been more aggressive on the amateur side and less aggressive on the free-agent side. It’s common sense.”

When Cashman was set to bolt the Yankees after the 2005 season, he put forth, in writing, his recommendations for the organization. Part of that recommended business model was to ignore Selig’s mandate and go after the best amateur talent available.

George Steinbrenner asked Cashman to come back and promised to allow those recommendations to become reality. Now, when you combine the Yankees’ 2006-08 drafts (assuming everyone signs) with the trades of Gary Sheffield and Johnson in the 2006-07 offseason and the acumen of amateur scouting vice president Damon Oppenheimer, the Yankees’ inventory ranks among the elite in baseball.

This is always nice to hear. But, you also have to take it for what it’s worth. Reading this, I decided to go back to Baseball America’s 2002 Prospect Handbook, to see which teams were ranked as having the best prospect “blend” (in terms of quality and quality) in their farm system. Here’s how Baseball America ranked the top five minor league systems in 2002:

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Houston Astros
4. San Diego Padres
5. New York Yankees

June 27, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 24 Comments

THT’s Kalk Looks At Hughes

(Thanks to WasWatching.com reader “OnceIWasAYankeeFan” for the heads-up on this one.)

I just read Josh Kalk’s “Anatomy of a player: Phil Hughes” at The Hardball Times. Josh concludes that:

Phil Hughes has a huge amount of upside, but there still are concerns. If he continues to not use his slider and change-up, he effectively becomes a two pitch pitcher. Now despite what you might have heard, starters can make it in this league with only two pitches as long as they are both quality pitches and if he can control them well. Hughes’ control doesn’t seem to be an issue despite his spate of walks this year. Everything that I read makes me think his control will be between good and great. The quality, though, might be an issue.

The fastball that Hughes has shown so far is average at best. He might be able to spice up the movement with a lowered arm angle or make some mechanical adjustments to get back some lost velocity, but if it continues as it is right now, major league batters will hit it hard. His curve has extraordinary movement but maybe too much movement for his own good. If hitters don’t have to worry about the slider and the change, identifying the curve will be that much easier because I don’t see a good solution to how he can disguise the pitch any better than he already is.

I feel like it is paramount that he throws his slider or change-up more often (preferably both) to keep hitters honest. Even if neither of these pitches are plus pitches right now, the slider at least has that potential. Most of Phil Hughes’ future is ahead of him and he should turn into a great pitcher, but he isn’t there yet. Time will tell if he makes it or not.

This is an interesting read. To me, it paints Phil Hughes as being the next Aaron Sele.

Funny, Sele was a first round pick (23rd overall) in the 1991 amateur draft (by the Red Sox). And, Hughes was a first round pick (23rd overall) in the 2004 amateur draft (by the Yankees). Cue up that Twilight Zone theme music…

Related, in case you missed it in the past. Kalk also once took a look at Robinson Cano too.

June 21, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 6 Comments

Wang Out At Least 10 Weeks - Maybe For Year

The reports are coming in on Chien-Ming Wang and they are not good. At best, Wang might be back in September. But, that’s if all goes according to plan.

Here’s the deal: Over his career, Worm Killer Wang has averaged 6 2/3 innings pitched per start while allowing 2.8 earned runs per start. This is what the Yankees will now be missing this season. This is what the Yankees will need to replace with Wang out.

Could Joba Chamberlain be that guy? Maybe. But, we don’t know for sure. Could Darrell Rasner be that guy? Geez, that’s asking a lot. How about Ian Kennedy? Jeff Karstens? Kei Igawa? Dan Giese? Alan Horne? Dan McCutchen? Somebody from Double-A Trenton?

Go back and check those numbers from Wang. We’re looking for someone who averages getting deep into the seventh inning, per start, while pitching to an ERA of 3.80 (to boot).

Right now, the Yankees don’t have anyone who can replace Wang - and be a lock for the same production.

This situation will be a true test for the Yankees - in terms of disclosing to their fans if they really want to win this season - or not. Hey, the Yankees don’t need to win to make money. They get a ton from YES - no matter what. They’ve sold every ticket this season and will sell every ticket next season - even if their team only wins 80 games per year.

So, with Wang out, what will the Yankees do? Will they just sit back, let the season slide, and continue to collect cash. Or, will they make a move to try and replace Wang in an attempt to make the post-season this year? It’s a very, very, interesting test for the team’s ownership and management. In fact, it may even be a situation where ownership wants one thing and management wants another.

It’s amazing what one little misstep at third base during a blow-out game can do to an organization, it’s season, and perhaps the future of those in charge.

June 16, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 8 Comments

Cano: Womack-Like Now, Baerga-Like Later?

According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Robinson Cano has -21 RCAA as of this morning (with an Offensive Winning Percentage of .203). That’s really bad. How bad is it? Put it this way: In 2005, for the Yankees, Tony Womack had -23 RCAA in 351 Plate Apperances.

Last season, on the year, Cano had 11 RCAA and an OWP of .552 in 669 PA. So, to date, we’re looking at a downward swing of 34 RCAA for Robby - between the two seasons.

This is not unheard of in Yankeeland. Scott Brosius went from 22 RCAA in 1998 to -10 RCAA in 1999. And, Tino Martinez went from 7 RCAA in 1999 to -16 RCAA in 2000. And, Paul O’Neill went from 6 RCAA in 1999 to -16 RCAA in 2000 as well. But, all those guys were near the end of their career when this happened. And, Cano is only 25-years old.

Let’s go outside Yankeeland for a moment. In 1995, Carlos Baerga was a 26-years old second baseman. At that time, some people were calling him the next Rogers Hornsby. And, in 1995, Carlos had 15 RCAA. But, the next season, in 1996, Baerga dropped down to -32 RCAA. And, his days as a full-time player, and productive hitter, were over before his 30th bithday.

I’m not saying that Cano is going to follow the path of Baerga. But, if what we’re seeing now from Cano is what we’re going to see from here out, it won’t be the first time a “can’t miss” offensive second baseman became toast just as fast as he became the toast of the town.

June 15, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 4 Comments

Price: Hughes Out Two More Months

Via Ed Price -

Phil Hughes, on the disabled list since May 2, still has not been cleared to resume throwing. A CT scan taken last Thursday showed Hughes’ fractured rib has not healed, so he probably will not be ready to return before August.

Let’s assume that Hughes does return to game-action until August. If so, at best, between the minors and the majors, he’ll see about 10-12 starts and that probably means about 60 innings pitched (once he’s back). Using this projection, and adding the 22 major league innings that Hughes has already logged this season, it’s not a reach to suggest that, at best, Phil Hughes is going to throw less than 100 IP of “game action” this season.

Last year, between the majors and the minors, Hughes threw 110 innings. And, the season before that one (in 2006), Hughes threw 146 IP on the year. (And, he threw 86.3 IP in 2005.)

Line those up: 86.3 IP, 146 IP, 110 IP, and somewhere between 82 and 99 IP. What does this mean?

It means that there’s no way the Yankees can expect to get more than 150 IP from Hughes next season without running the risk of hurting his arm (in the long-term). That’s not going to cut it in the big league starting rotation. So, it leads to the question: Should Phil Hughes only be counted on to pitch long-relief, out of the Yanks pen, next season? I would suggest that may be a smart expectation to have…either that, or, let him pitch the full season (in 2009) in Triple-A, and then look for him to join the big league rotation in 2010 (when, hopefully, he can then be expected to shoulder a load of around 180 IP).

June 12, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 32 Comments

Bleich’s Elbow

Looks like I was right about Jeremy Bleich. Via Tyler Kepner -

It was no surprise Thursday that with the 44th overall pick in the draft (their second selection, as compensation for the loss of Luis Vizcaino as a free agent) the Yankees took a pitcher who had an elbow injury this season – the Stanford lefty Jeremy Bleich. The Yankees have been undeterred in taking such risks, selecting Mark Melancon, Alan Horne and Andrew Brackman in recent years despite elbow issues with all three.

Elbows are much easier to repair than shoulders, and generally, teams expect 75 percent of pitchers who have Tommy John surgery to come back strong. I interviewed the Yankees’ head trainer in Tampa, Mark Littlefield, for Friday’s Melancon feature story, and asked him about the medical staff’s approach.

“We’ve had pretty good success; over all, we’ve had good luck with it,” Littlefield said. “I don’t have the answers, but we’re riding that wave. A lot of it has to do with the players, and if they’re willing to work.”

We’ve had pretty good success; over all…

Yeah, Alan Horne, Andrew Brackman, Christian Garcia, Humberto Sanchez, J. Brent Cox, Jason Stephens, Lance Pendleton and Mark Melancon are all thriving at the big league level…oh, wait a minute….

June 6, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 12 Comments

Tabata In Doghouse Again

One of the Yankees “crown jewels” (of their farm system) - Jose Tabata - is really starting to lose his shine.

As you may recall, four weeks ago, Tabata found himself in hot water with Trenton management. Now, he’s at it again. Via John Nalbone:

Thunder right fielder Jose Tabata was yanked from tonight’s game against visiting New Hampshire in the fifth inning for unspecified disciplinary reasons.

Suspended three games by the Yankees for leaving Waterfront Park following an April 26 strikeout that dropped his batting average below .200, Tabata was expelled from the dugout and was seen sitting in front of his locker as the Fisher Cats grabbed a 4-3 lead in the eighth inning on a two-run home run by Aaron Mathews.

The Thunder (34-19) eventually won the game, 7-4, by scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Fisher Cats (19-33).

Manager Tony Franklin refused to address the specifics as to why the 19-year-old Tabata was pulled and sent back to the clubhouse.

“We had an in-house issue we needed to deal with. Don’t ask me what it is because I’m not telling you,” a visibly irritated Franklin said. “We’re very pleased with the way he is playing. He is playing hard. But there are certain standards that need to be met within this organization and with this team, and when those standards are not met we take action. It’s our job to make sure these players know what they are supposed to do at all times out there.”

Franklin did not rule out further discipline for Tabata, who was 0-for-2 before being removed.

“We’ll decide on that later,” Franklin said. “We’ll bring him in, talk to him and explain what we want to see him do and how we’d like to see him go about it.”

It turns out that Jose was benched for failing to back-up Austin Jackson on a play where Jackson dove for a ball and it rolled past him allowing the batter to reach third.

Nothing new there. Via Mike Ashmore three days ago:

Could not agree more with a scouting report I saw on Jose Tabata that says he tends to turn his talent on and off. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen him make no effort on catchable balls that are hit right at him that end up landing. Anthony Hatch hit a ball off of Melancon in the 5th that was right to him, but he barely moved and watched it land about three feet in front of him. I hate to rip the guy, but enough already…

Back in October of 2006, I shared some concern over Tabata’s attitude. Also, this past January, I quoted a Baseball America scouting report on Tabata that read: “Scouts outside the organization chide him for failing to give a consistent effort.”

Of course, Jose Tabata is young and there’s still time for him to get a better attitude. But, until that time comes, it probably makes sense to downgrade his prospect status in the Yankees chain. Because, right now, he’s looking like a Bow-Wow in the making.

May 30, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 10 Comments

Sour Melk?

Since April 25th, Melky Cabrera has played in 27 games for the Yankees (including yesterday). He’s had 105 PA in those games and has fashioned the following BA/OBP/SLG line: .216/.269/.309

That’s a month’s worth of pathetic performance.

On the bright side, last season, Melky went on a tear with the bat from June through August. Maybe he’ll do the same this year? But, if he continues to struggle, like this, for another month, you then have to start and wonder if his days as a starter will be numbered in the Bronx.

May 26, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 6 Comments

Ian Kennedy’s Start Yesterday

Via the Times:

“This is not the Ian Kennedy that we all saw last year, and we need to find a way to get him back there,” said Manager Joe Girardi. “When he made a mistake it was a bad mistake and they didn’t miss. Sometimes those are singles. Today they were homers and doubles.”

“I felt like I had the right mind-set and I was attacking guys, but they’re a very good team,” Kennedy said. “Mentally, I think I’m going in the right direction.”

Know what bothered me the most about Kennedy yesterday? His mound presence.

When Ian hit Ben Zobrist with that pitch in the third, Kennedy had a reaction like “Oh, I give up. Here we go again. Woe is me.” It was like someone sucked the air out of his body. Next, he walked Akinori Iwamura and it got worse. Dave Eiland saw it too - and quickly went out to the mound. Granted, Ian worked out of that jam as best that he could - but, the message was clear…he’s somewhat shell-shocked on the mound. For a guy who needs to be confident in his pitches, as he doesn’t have off-the-charts stuff, that’s never a good thing.

Last season, Kennedy (when he came up) attacked hitters - much like Matt Garza did to the Yankees the other night…doing it with a look on his mug that said “OK, go ahead, try and hit this!”

Yesterday’s start tells me that Ian Kennedy still has the same problem that he had before he went to the minors to figure it out. And, the issue is in his head. He doesn’t trust his stuff and has become fearful of big league hitters. Somehow, the Yankees need to figure out a way to get him back to where he was last year. If it means giving his phone number to Jim Fannin, at this point, could it hurt?

May 16, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 5 Comments

Hank Interested In Boomer?

Via the Post -

For his 45th birthday in 11 days, David Wells wants something pinstriped.

The free-agent left-hander told The Post yesterday he has been working out near his home in San Diego and believes he could bolster a Yankees’ rotation suddenly besieged by question marks.

Could Boomer III be in the cards? Consider that Wells has a huge fan monitoring the situation from Tampa. Hank Steinbrenner admitted yesterday that Wells, who recently made appearances on “Best Damn Sports Show Period,” has crossed his mind as a possibility for the Yankees’ rotation.

“I’ve thought about it,” Steinbrenner told The Post. “I saw him on TV, and I did think about it when I was watching.”

But Steinbrenner said he has not discussed Wells’ availability with GM Brian Cashman or manager Joe Girardi. That, Steinbrenner indicated, could change depending upon how Darrell Rasner and Kei Igawa fare in the rotation as Phil Hughes sits on the disabled list for at least two months with a rib fracture and Ian Kennedy attempts to return from Triple-A.

“You never know,” Steinbrenner said. “[Wells] hasn’t come up in conversation, but I’ve had so much other [bleep] to deal with lately.”

“Obviously, he’ll always be a Yankee to me,” Steinbrenner said.

The Baby Boss then dropped a subtle hint he’s growing disillusioned with the Yankees’ youth movement and could open the door to Wells.

“What sticks out in my mind, that team in the late ’90s, the starting pitching,” he said. “You had [David] Cone, El Duque [Orlando Hernandez], Wells . . . they were all big-game pitchers. They all came from elsewhere - not in the system.

“Everybody talks about the great players from the farm system that we had in the ’90s, but it was the starting rotation. That was a huge part of the success. Huge.”

One veteran Yankee, well aware of the Steinbrenner family’s affection for Wells and the lefty’s appetite for a big stage, said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Wells return.

“It may happen,” the Yankee said.

May 9, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 15 Comments

Posada Plan: Rest, Rehab, & Retrun(?)

Via the Hartford Courant:

Yankees catcher Jorge Posada doesn’t need surgery on his injured right shoulder but will be out at least five weeks.

“I thought I was going to have to get surgery. We’re going to look at that option probably after the season,” Posada said Friday.

Posada was examined by Yankees physician Stuart Hershon, orthopedist James Andrews and Mets medical director David Altchek. Reds team physician Timothy Kremchek, a shoulder specialist, reviewed scans of the shoulder Friday.

Posada, 36, said he has inflammation of the rotator cuff but the condition of his labrum was unchanged from a scan taken during the offseason for an insurance policy after he signed a four-year, $52.4 million deal.

The plan is to rest for 10 days, then try throwing. If Posada has no pain, he will throw for two weeks before a rehab assignment. That lines him up for a possible June return.

When that scenario was presented to Posada, he seemed to think it was overly optimistic, saying, “I don’t know about that.”

I’m with Jorge on this one. He’s already had a cortisone shot. Would that have not killed the inflammation by now? Don’t be shocked, in ten days from now, to hear that he has not improved and the timetable for his return is being revised. The fact that he hints that surgery may be an option after the season tells you that something is up there. Maybe it makes more sense to go under the knife now, punt this season, and be 100% sound for next year?

May 3, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 1 Comment

Yanks Players Confused & Thinking .500?

Via Bob Klapisch -

“You can just see, everyone here is trying to figure out what the [heck] is going on,” is what one of the clubhouse elders was saying. The words weren’t meant as criticism, just an observation about a franchise that’s suddenly lost its compass. Everyone’s veered off course, including Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, the wound-too-tightly Joe Girardi and general manager Brian Cashman, whose decision to lean on the kid pitchers might cost him his job after the ’08 season.

But the Yankees were similarly depending on Hughes, who’s now out for at least two months with a mysterious cracked rib and Kennedy, who got smoked again, this time by the Tigers en route to an 8-4 loss. Together, the rookie pitchers are 0-7 and have managed to downgrade the Yankees’ win projection from 88-91 to 85-88, and even that might be generous. Another veteran said, “Without [Hughes and Kennedy] pitching the way we expected, you’re talking about .500, tops.”

Make no mistake: There’s a deepening sense of crisis around the Yankees, even if Cashman insisted, “this is something every team goes through if they want to make it to the promised land.”

The GM talked tough, but you expected that. After all, it was Cashman’s power move to hang onto Kennedy and Hughes and keep Hank Steinbrenner from trading for Johan Santana. It was Cashman’s decision to hire Girardi, who has none of the communication skills of his predecessor, Joe Torre, and treats every transaction as evasively as if he was guarding troop movements in Iraq. And, remember, it was Girardi who choreographed the killer conditioning program in spring training, which announced to everyone there was a new sheriff in town. But did it really help?

“You look at everyone hurt, and now you wonder,” is what one Yankee was asking before the game.

You can just see, everyone here is trying to figure out what the [heck] is going on…

Without [Hughes and Kennedy] pitching the way we expected, you’re talking about .500, tops…

You look at everyone hurt, and now you wonder…

Yikes. Not exactly the quotes that you’d want to hear coming out of your clubhouse on May 1st, right?

May 2, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 5 Comments

Subscapularis Muscle Tear For Posada?

The New York Times is reporting this may be the case. (Just now, on YES it was reported that the Yankees will not confirm this report.)

From what I can quickly tell, if surgery is required, Posada could be out for the next four to six months (post-op). So, this situation would basically wipe out his season.

While the Yankees would miss his bat behind the plate, Jorge being MIA would also be a huge loss in terms of the leadership that Posada provides the team.

April 27, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 4 Comments

How Soon Until Girardi Season Starts?

How soon will it be until we start to see reports on how the Yankees are responding (or not) to new manager Joe Girardi?

The team is off to a poor start. The media is already starting to question how Girardi is dealing with them on player news. The players are sneaking in candy to the clubhouse behind his back. Some are already questioning Girardi’s line-ups and game moves.

Sure, it’s only 25 games into the season.

And, the Yankees pitching - as many predicted - has not been effective outside of Pettitte, Wang, Bruney, Rivera and Chamberlain.

Also, only Abreu, Jeter, Damon and Posada have hit well with RISP this season, to date. (With A-Rod, Cano, Melky and Giambi killing the team in this regard - see below. Although, for what it’s worth Melky has done well in High Leverage situations.)

Yankees, with RISP, through April 26th:

		PA	BA	OPS     BAbip
RCano		32	.133	.354	.160
MEnsberg		11	.182	.364	.286
ARodriguez	24	.143	.440	.231
JGiambi		27	.056	.444	.059
AGonzalez		8	.200	.629	.200
JMolina		9	.222	.667	.333
WBetemit		6	.333	.667	.500
MCabrera		23	.188	.693	.182
SDuncan		4	.333	.833	.333
HMatsui		19	.267	.954	.250
CMoeller		6	.250	1.000	.250
DJeter		24	.429	1.006	.450
JDamon		25	.300	1.075	.286
JPosada		14	.333	1.095	.444
BAbreu		21	.421	1.160	.538

[Stats via Baseball-Reference.com]

In any event, many expected Girardi to be a serious change agent for this Yankees team - compared to how the team has been in the last three years or so. And, so far, some could suggest that all we have seen is a situation where various feathers have been ruffled with mixed results.

Me? I’d like to see where the Yankees are at the end of May before making any hard judgements. But, will the rest of the world be as willing to give this another 4-6 weeks? I’m not sure that will happen - and things could start getting hot for Joe, sooner rather than later.

April 27, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 13 Comments

Bruney To See Specialist Today

Via Tyler Kepner -

Reliever Brian Bruney is probably headed to the disabled list with an injury the Yankees fear could be two torn ligaments in his right foot. Bruney, who will meet with a foot specialist in New York on Friday, said that pitching on an injured foot could lead to more serious damage.

“I’ve got to make sure I don’t feel anything,” said Bruney, who stumbled while scrambling to cover first base Tuesday. “That’s something that could lead to changing arm angles, trying to brace my foot and hurting my arm. We have to make sure everything’s good.”

Bruney received pregame treatment for the second day in a row and continues to wear a boot. Manager Joe Girardi said only that the foot was sore, and Bruney all but dismissed the Yankees’ public diagnosis.

“Sprained midfoot — whatever that means,” Bruney said. “It just hurts.”

Googling around, I found this on injuries to foot ligaments:

Ligaments have a poor blood supply, and torn ligaments require as much healing time as fractures. Average healing times are:

Mild sprains–2 to 6 weeks.
Moderate sprains–6 to 8 weeks.
Severe sprains–8 to 10 weeks.

Based on this, and reading Bruney’s reaction, I’m predicting that he’ll be out for the next 5 weeks (and maybe more) - if it’s true that he has torn ligaments. That’s a shame - as it was somewhat appearing like he had turned a corner this season.

April 25, 2008 | Filed Under Possible Bad News | 6 Comments