Just how risky is the Bombers’ reliance on their aging core players?

GM Brian Cashman admits, “I do worry” about the possibility that Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera could get hurt – or suffer an insidious drop-off in production. The sport’s actuaries say Jeter & Co. should already be in a decline phase, although Cashman says the Yankees are too far along in the current business plan to change it now.

“I realize Jeter is 35, but does that mean I’m out looking for a 23-year-old shortstop to replace him? Absolutely not,” Cashman said. “I understand the risk that comes with older players, but there’s a risk in every aspect of the game. This is one we can live with.”

It’s a tightrope philosophy – the Yankees have no reliable alternatives for the quartet. And, remember, the absence of a Plan B is what ruined the Mets when their front-line players went down in 2009. The difference, of course, is that the Bombers have plenty of secondary firepower throughout the roster.

That’s why Cashman is ready to run the table on the older fraternity. But make no mistake, the Yankees’ fingers are crossed. In 2009, Jeter was the oldest shortstop on a championship team since Pee Wee Reese played for the 1955 Dodgers. And only two starting pitchers have ever been older than Pettitte, 37, when they won a World Series clincher: Burleigh Grimes in 1931 and Eddie Plank in 1913, both at age 38.

Or how about a simple drop-off in production. PECOTA, the somewhat imperfect baseball prognosticating apparatus, calls for the Yankees to go 90-71, and miss the playoffs for the second time in three years.

That’s an incomprehensible outcome for a reigning champion with a $200 million payroll. But PECOTA sees Jeter losing 31 points off his batting average this year. Posada will fall from 85 RBIin 2009 to just 58 (with an 80-point drop in his slugging percentage), while Pettitte is predicted to win only 10 games.

Granted, these are all guesses, albeit math-based. But when you lean on players who are pushing 40, only the most naïve executive would dismiss the possibility of age-related problems.

Dr. Stuart Hershon, the former Yankees’ physician who serves are the team’s medical consultant, said, “A 35-year-old athlete has less stamina and reflex speed than a 25-year-old athlete. Nothing can change that. You become tired more easily, the body needs more time to recover. It’s why you don’t see many football or basketball players in their 40s.

“Even concentration becomes more difficult, which is why golfers don’t win championships in their 50s.”

“Nothing can change that”? You mean they don’t have a pill, lotion, or shot to help offset the effects of aging? Yes, I’m just busting chops here…

As “Klap” also noted in his column, this all just may mean that it’s muy importante for CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira to have typical seasons in 2010 – if the Yankees are going to make another run at a ring. Of those three, Teixeira concerns me the least. But, A-Rod has his hip and maybe the feds to deal with this season. And, CC is coming off two seasons in a row of, pardon the pun, heavy usage.

Don’t get me wrong here…I’m not saying that the 2010 Yankees are going to be a mirror image of the 1965 Yankees. But, I think anyone who doesn’t realize that there’s some serious risk associated to this roster, and its cadre of players, has their head in the sand.

If Nate Silver is correct, both the Democratic Party and the New York Yankees might be headed for tough times this fall. The ace political pollster/baseball analyst projects the numbers for 1,600 major league ballplayers in the current Baseball Prospectus 2010, and things don’t look good for the Yankees’ “Core Four.” Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera average out at 38 years of age, and no team in the major leagues is anywhere near as dependent on four aging players as the Yankees are.

Based on the study of hundreds of players in their declining years, Silver projects these slides for the Yanks’ elders in 2010:

Jeter from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286 this year, a drop in home runs from 18 to 11, and in stolen bases from 30 to 10. Posada from a .285 BA to .263, home runs from 22 to 12. Pettitte from 14-8 and an ERA of 4.06 to 10-11 and 4.70. Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and and ERA the moves from 1.76 to 3.53.

If Silver is right, the 2010 Yankees are sunk. Worse yet, Steinbrenner and Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.

So, what do you think, is this Peyote or PECOTA at its best?

I do disagree on the point of “…Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.”

Cashman always has a plan for that. In the words of Wilma Slaghoople Flintstone and Elizabeth ‘Betty’ Jean Rubble…Chaaaarge it!

The Yankees have never relished the destructive defamation suit former pinstripe hero Roger Clemens brought two years ago against his accuser, former Yankee trainer Brian McNamee, but bigger headaches for the club may yet lie ahead according to a new appeals-court brief issued by McNamee’s defense attorneys.

A footnote deep in the 60-page brief lists current Yankee stars Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter as witnesses McNamee might call to the stand for sworn testimony about Clemens’ purported use of steroids and human growth hormone. Also listed among potential witnesses for McNamee is Angela Moyer, an alleged mistress of Clemens who tended bar near the Upper East Side apartment where McNamee said he visited Clemens after Yankee games to inject the pitcher with steroids and human growth hormone (Clemens has testified he thought the syringes contained vitamin B12).

All of this is mere foregrounding to the still-active criminal inquiry into whether Clemens committed perjury before Congress. A grand jury in Washington D.C. is actively considering those charges, and McNamee is cooperating with the feds on that matter.

McNamee is currently living in Queens, and is cooperating with federal prosecutors who have convened the Washington grand jury, which is exploring whether Clemens lied two years ago when he went under oath and denied using performance-enhancing substances. Clemens has spent parts of recent months attending sports events with his sons and Tweeting about his charity efforts. On Feb. 28, he appeared at a fundraiser in Trenton, New Jersey, posing for photographs and signing autographs at an event that raised money for Allies Inc., an organization that assists people with disabilities.

There’s no truth to the rumor that Jay Baruchel and John Cena are being sought out to play McNamee and Clemens, respectively, in the movie version of this story.

ESPN – CC Sabathia was the innings-leader for the World Series Champion Yankees last season, but a recent trend indicates that he could soon fall on hard times.

A post by Scott Randall of ESPN Stats & Info showcases a five-year trend of pitchers that led the World Series winners in innings struggling the year following their title win.

Beginning in 2004, Curt Schilling (Boston), Mark Buehrle (Chicago), Chris Carpenter (St. Louis), Josh Beckett (Boston) and Cole Hamels (Philadelphia) all struggled the season after leading the champions in innings.

Sabathia went 19-8 with a 3.37 ERA for New York in 2009, but also pitched a career-high 266 1/3 innings over the regular and postseason.

Schilling pitched 168 innings in 2003. Buehrle threw 245 in 2004. Carpenter had 241 innings in 2005. Beckett had 204 in 2006 (which is high for him). Hamels had 183 in 2007 at the age of 23.

I think that’s part of it here – how much was the guy taxed the year before as well as the year in which he won the ring. And, we know that CC carried a big load in 2008 and 2009.

I hope he’s going to be the exception here – because, without Sabathia pitching like an ace, the Yankees will be in trouble.

Getting right to it, Joe Girardi expressed concern after the Yanks’ 9-1 loss over Francisco Cervelli, who suffered a concussion after taking one off the helmet from Blue Jays righty Zech Zinicola in the third inning.

It certainly wasn’t the best 24th birthday gift for Cervelli, who at least returned from a local hospital before the game was over. Other than the corresponding dizziness and a headache, he said his CT scans came back negative and that he expects to return in “a couple of days.”

Girardi countered by saying the backup backstop will be examined by a team doctor Sunday and then a neurologist the next day before any timeframe is given. Cervelli also suffered a concussion when dinged in the head by an opposing player’s backswing during a winter-league game in Venezuela in November.

“I’m not going to rush it,” Girardi said. “It’s a concern. Anytime you start to talk about injuries to the head like that, you’re concerned about it. He’s feeling OK now, but you worry about it. It’s scary.”

Concussions are bad news – for all the obvious reasons. And, for a catcher, they could be career ending. Go ask Mike Matheny. Cervelli seems like a good kid who has the potential to be a Rick Dempsey-like catcher someday. I hope this all works out well for him, in the end. But, having two concussions in the last four months or so is not good. Stay tuned on this one.

New York Yankees designated hitter Nick Johnson was scratched from the starting lineup for Thursday’s game against Philadelphia because of a stiff lower back.

Jamie Hoffmann replaced Johnson in the game that featured new Phillies ace Roy Halladay and Yankees star CC Sabathia.

Johnson was signed during the off-season to take the spot of 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, who is now with the Los Angeles Angels. Johnson hit an RBI double in the Yankees’ exhibition opener Wednesday.

Jackie “Moms” Mabley has been dead for 35 years. But, I’d probably take her over Nick Johnson in a fitness test.

The fundamentals don’t support the notion that [Javy] Vazquez is going to give a repeat performance in pinstripes this year. In ‘09, his fly-ball rate was 34.8 percent. For his career, it’s smack dab at 40 percent. And in his three seasons pitching for the White Sox from ‘06 to ‘08, it was 40.7, 43.4 and 41.7 percent. More fly balls are rarely a good thing for a pitcher, yet it’s likely that more fly balls are what Vazquez will see. Next, consider his new home ballpark. While it’s true that it’s far too early to unilaterally declare that the new Yankee Stadium is and always will be a home run hitter’s paradise, it’s not too early to declare that Turner Field is very tough in that regard, especially for left-handed hitters. Last year, Turner Field was fifth hardest on homers, while Yankee Stadium was famously the No. 1 home run hitting venue around, and has one heck of an enticing right-field porch, about which right-handed pitchers need to be concerned. Finally, Vazquez’s strand rate last year was 76.6 percent, the highest of his big league life (compared to 70.8 percent for his career).

But the main reason I feel secure saying Vazquez won’t repeat his 2009 season in 2010 is simple: I’ve seen this movie before. Vazquez has done this. In 2004, at age 28, Vazquez played a full season for the Yankees and did little to erase his reputation as a soft pitcher. Set free from the non-attention he enjoyed in six years as a Montreal Expo, he put together a blazing first half (10 wins, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and an All-Star Game appearance as a Yankee, then went belly-up when the pennant race got tight, posting a 6.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after the break. Plus, he famously allowed Johnny Damon’s Game 7 grand slam in the Red Sox’s improbable playoff comeback. (Remember ol’ gutsy Vazquez relieving ol’ gutsy Kevin Brown, Yanks fans?) And after posting a sub-4.00 ERA his each of his final three seasons in Montreal, Vazquez would go on to post a 4.00-plus ERA in four of his next five with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and White Sox.

At the least, it’s something to be mindful of while watching Vazquez perform this season.

Last December, concerned Yankee officials reached out to representatives of their star slugger Alex Rodriguez. Along with everyone else in baseball, they had just learned that a Canadian-based doctor named Anthony Galea was under investigation as a possible distributor of performance-enhancing drugs.

The Yankees were particularly concerned, said a person in baseball with knowledge of what occurred, because Rodriguez was monitored by a chiropractor last season who had worked closely with Galea in the past.

Now, however, those same Yankees officials are not sure what to think.

Asked by reporters if he had been treated by Galea, Rodriguez responded: “I can’t really get into that. You’ll know within time, all at the same time.

The New York Times reported on its Web site Sunday night that investigators had information indicating that Rodriguez was treated by Galea at some point in the past. In addition, The Times reported that an athlete who was treated by Galea in Canada said he had been told by the doctor that he had previously traveled to New York to treat Rodriguez.

Monday’s remarks by Rodriguez thrust the Yankees back into territory with which they have become familiar in recent seasons.

Because they do not want to be seen as impeding a federal investigation, the Yankees and Major League Baseball will probably wait until after Rodriguez meets with the authorities before questioning him. For the moment, the Yankees find themselves unsure of what Rodriguez’s dealings with Galea entailed, if indeed there were any, and where they could lead.

But in a written statement issued shortly after Rodriguez spoke, the Yankees tried to put some distance between themselves and Rodriguez, their 34-year-old star.

“The Yankees never authorized Dr. Tony Galea to treat Alex Rodriguez, nor do we have any knowledge of any such treatment,” the statement said.

Hmmm…maybe it’s time to ask that hypothetical question again?

So, Yankees fans – and just baseball fans in general – what are you thoughts on all this? Could there be something here? And, if so, how would you feel about it?

Nevertheless, there is a minefield out there for the Yankees. In just base salary, the Yankees are due to pay $90 million to Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett in 2013. The youngest will be Sabathia and Teixeira, both at 33. This is before we find out if the Yankees do as much as a three-year extension with Jeter, which would drive the 2013 payroll well over $100 million for five players.

[Alex] Rodriguez is just three years into a 10-year extension and a year removed from major hip surgery. Amazingly, he still is signed further into the future, through 2017, than anyone in the sport. He will turn 42 that season, so what are the chances that 10-year deal goes as well for the Yankees as the one they signed with Jeter?

Teixeira is signed through 2016, tied with St. Louis’ Matt Holliday for the second longest into the future that any player is guaranteed money. Sabathia, a heavyweight with a heavy workload, is signed through 2015. Rodriguez, Teixeira and Sabathia are signed for a combined $66 million in 2015.

Burnett, who just had his first-ever back-to-back 200-inning seasons, is enlisted through 2013

“There is risk involved,” general manager Brian Cashman conceded.

Aw, what a drag it is getting old…

1. Outfield offense
2. Age
3. Contract scenarios with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera
4. Andy Pettitte’s flickering performance
5. Joe Girardi’s personality
6. AJ Burnett and Jorge Posada’s working relationship
7. DH production (or can Nick Johnson produce what Hideki Matsui did?)

In summary, Hart offers:

So while the Yankees will not have many people shedding tears for them, they very well could run into issues as the 2010 campaign opens. If one or two of these things do go wrong for the Yankees, they can probably deal with it. But if, as sometimes happen, everything seems to turn south at once, the Yankees could be fighting all the way, or even on the outside looking in when the 2010 postseason begins.

I agree that the Yankees offense from DH and the outfield may be lacking this season – compared to last year. But, the offense that the Yankees get from their infield should be more than enough to ensure New York scores between 800 and 900 runs this season.

I cannot sign on with many of Hart’s other concerns. Sure, they could happen. But, even if they did, I see them more as excuses, and not a valid reason, for not making the post-season this year.

For me, at this time, the Yankees biggest “go wrong” concerns should be around A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez. As always, when it comes to being a contender, especially in the A.L. East, it’s all about pitching.

New York’s bullpen should be O.K. this year. And, Girardi has shown a knack for finding solutions there when “Plan A” doesn’t work out. So, that leaves it to the starting pitching.

CC Sabathia should be fine – he’s a proven ace. And, Andy Pettitte will be Andy Pettitte – giving you 200 innings and winning half of his starts, thereabouts. That leaves it up to Burnett and Vazquez to round out the rotation. They both need to make 30 starts, throw 200 innings, and keep their ERA near league average or below. If they both cannot do that, then the Yankees are playing the season with one-half of a starting rotation…compared to the Red Sox and Rays who appear to have very good starting rotations this year. And, that’s a problem.