Sounds crazy, right? But, think about it.

Assuming the Yankees don’t blow it, make the post-season, and get past the ALDS, what happens if the Wild Card team also wins their ALDS? As Yankees fans, in this situation, who would you rather face in the ALCS – Boston or Tampa Bay?

Yes, I know that the Red Sox have owned the Yankees in regular season play this year. But, Boston is on life-support right now. Their pitching is a mess. And, the Rays have a deep and talented staff. Granted, the Red Sox hit better than the Rays. And, Boston seems to have a way of dealing with Sabathia. But, still, at this point, I’m thinking I want to avoid the Rays in October.

Of course, this all assumes that “the other team” from the East can get by the Tigers, Rangers or Angels – whomever it is that they play. And, that might be a reach – especially the way that the Tigers are playing these days.

In any event, while it’s fun to see the Red Sox choke-up their play-off berth, maybe Yankees fans should be rooting for them to hold off the Rays?

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Via NESN -

We know that a Boston Red Sox collapse or a Tampa Bay Rays comeback, however you want to put it, would be extremely notable. In fact, both would rank among the largest in baseball history, right up there with those you hear about from your father’s father.

The Red Sox held a nine-game lead over the Rays on Sept. 3. Based on coolstandings.com, which simulates the remainders of seasons one million times to determine playoff chances, Boston finished that day with a season-high 99.6 percent chance of making the postseason.

Essentially, the site’s engine calculated that if the rest of the season was played out a million times, the Red Sox would make the playoffs roughly 996,000 times and miss it about 4,000 times.

We are not suggesting that Boston will completely fall apart, and a 4 1/2-game lead with 18 games to play remains sizable. But if the club somehow missed the playoffs, it would rank as the third-largest collapse in major league history, just behind the 1995 California Angels, who peaked with a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs on Aug. 24, and the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, who blew a 99.7 percent opportunity after Aug. 13.

Both of those teams were forced into a playoff to decide the postseason entrant. As we all know, they both lost.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has a chance to record the sixth-greatest comeback based on the percentages. It began play on Sept. 4 with a 0.5 percent chance to reach October. According to coolstandings.com, only five teams have ever rallied from a smaller percentage — the 1914 Boston Braves, the 2005 Houston Astros, the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals, the 1973 New York Mets and the 1951 New York Giants, who caught those Dodgers with just a few days to spare in the regular season.

For the record, on September 6th, the Yankees had a 10 game loss-column lead over the Rays and a 3 game loss-column lead over the Red Sox. And, now, as we head into today’s game, it’s seven and three games. I wonder what the game-spread will be on September 19th?

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Three weeks ago, I warned about this happening.  So, is something very bad on the Yankees horizon?

Check out the A.L. East standing as of this morning:

Tm     W  L  Strk
NYY   87 57   L 4
BOS   85 60   L 4
TBR   80 64   W 3

The Yankees are just 3 games ahead, in the loss column, in the Wildcard chase – over Boston. And, the Rays are just four games back, in the loss column, of the Wildcard.

Now, factor in that the Rays have 5 games left to play with the Red Sox and 7 games left to play with the Yankees. And, the Yankees and Red Sox have 3 games left to play against each other.

If the Rays keep winning, and, if Boston takes those three games against the Yankees, is there a chance that Tampa Bay could finish first in the A.L. East, with Boston taking the wildcard, and the Yankees being left out in the cold? Sure, you bet there’s a chance – do the math.

The key in this could be the Orioles – they play Boston 7 more times, Tampa Bay 3 more times, and the Yankees no more.  If the O’s roll over and let the Red Sox take most of those games, while the Rays are beating the Yankees, head-to-head, in those 7 games that they have with New York, then that could sink the Yankees.

Then again, if the Yankees win 6 of the next 8, that should give them the room they need to lock up a post-season spot.  So, these upcoming road games for them, against the Mariners and Blue Jays, are very important. 

It’s too bad that A-Rod, Swisher, Martin, and others, are now hurting.  And, Granderson and Gardner have cooled off a bit.  And, Teixeira has been a bust of sorts over the last three months.  Not to mention that Burnett and Hughes cannot be trusted. 

This whole thing has gotten really sticky for the Yankees over the last six days.  Those one-run losses on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday may come back to haunt them.

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As much as I enjoy seeing the Red Sox have bad fortune, I’m finding myself starting to feel sorry for Wakefield.  How many cracks is it going to take for him to get #200?

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I cannot believe that the HOF is selling these shirts.

We can thank 2004 for all of this, of course.

Click on the thumbnails to enlarge.

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…just wait.

A.J. Burnett is starting tomorrow.

Brutal game tonight, in any event. Just ugly. That’s not championship level play. Not even close.

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Crazy game, huh?

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Via MLB.com -

“Absolutely,” [Red Sox president Larry] Lucchino said when asked if he’s still amped. “We want to win, we want home-field advantage. And by the way, if we were playing them in a Tiddlywinks match, or a checkers game, we’d get amped up. At least I would.”

“Every time we play them it’s important,” said Boston’s scheduled starter for the series finale, Jon Lester. “Every game, from here on out, is important. We’re not going to think it any differently between the Yankees or Baltimore or anywhere else. We’ve just got to keep playing good baseball.”

At the same time, Sox players also acknowledged Monday that the series isn’t as dire as it perhaps could be.

“Both [teams] are in the playoffs, that’s the main thing,” Lester said when asked if he preferred a division title to the Wild Card. “It’s just getting in the playoffs, and making sure you get hot at the right time, and ride it out as long as you can.”

“Both teams are in a pretty good position to make the playoffs,” said Adrian Gonzalez. “I guess the importance is who wins the division and who wins the Wild Card. It doesn’t [matter how we get into the playoffs], but it’s always great for the fans to beat up on the Yanks. Just trying to win a series for the fans.”

These are the days I miss Heineken Hank chiming in…

In any event, the games should be interesting – they always are up in Fenway.

It’s just too bad that A-Rod will probably miss these games.  When he’s in the mix, that usually adds to the flavor of these events.

Me?  I just want to see the Yankees play better against Boston – than they have, so far, this season.  Is that too much to ask for?

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Is it just me, or, are the Tampa Bay Rays now just seven games back of the Red Sox, in the loss column, in the Wildcard chase?

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Ryan Lavarnway:

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Jesus Montero:

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Wouldn’t it suck if the Red Sox catching prospect turned out to be a better big league performer than the Yankees catching prospect?

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The Blue Jays are stealing signs? Maybe they got the idea from the Yankees…back in the day…

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Read all about it.

Which five is better than the other?

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Since 1919, only twice have the Yankees lost 10+ games to the Red Sox within their first 113 games of the season: 1973 and this year (2011). Below are the seasons in which the Yanks lost to the Bosox 9+ times within their first 113 games of the season:

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Not sure if this means anything – but, it does suggest how much Boston has beat-up on New York, up to this point in the season, more so than in years past.

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And, I have to get up in 5 1/2 hours and go to work.
It’s tied, 2-2, after nine.
Scutaro, again? Really?
Good night, Yankees.
I hope I don’t find a mushroom cloud when I wake up later this morning.

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So, including today, in 5 of the last 8 games where CC Sabathia has faced the Boston Red Sox, he has not pitched as well as he does when facing the rest of baseball. And, the last three times he’s faced Boston, Sabathia has been battered.

This, my friend, is not good.

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Via Michael Silverman -

You’ll agree that the sale of Babe Ruth by the Red Sox to the Yankees in 1920 turned into a pretty big deal.

And you’ve probably never been able to stop wondering what would have happened if the Red Sox and Yankees had actually agreed to swap Ted Williams for Joe DiMaggio, straight up, as the owners discussed one night over a bunch of drinks in 1947.

So you’re going to love seeing this not-entirely-mythical 2012 scenario between the Yankees and Red Sox thrown against the wall.

Try imagining David Ortiz as the designated hitter for the Yankees and CC Sabathia in the Red Sox rotation next year.

Believe it or not, hallucinogens are not required.

Sure it’s a longshot. It’s the very definition of one, or two. But whenever the chance exists that certain chips can fall in a certain way, it’s too risky to simply ignore it altogether.

Sabathia, today’s Yankees starter, has been everything the Yankees asked for when they signed him. A third of the way into his seven-year, $161 million contract, Sabathia has led the Yankees to one World Series title and has been among the five best starters in baseball with his 56-20 record, 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in that span.

He has been brilliant, but the smartest thing Sabathia ever did when he signed that deal was to tuck in an opt-out clause after this season.

That’s right: Sabathia, still just 31 years old, can be a free agent after this season.

Now, no doubt the Steinbrenners have already asked Sabathia to renew vows and given him the PIN to the Yankees’ ATM. There is no way to exaggerate how vital Sabathia is to the future of the Yankees rotation. Just listening to manager Joe Girardi spend 15 minutes yesterday going through the mental gymnastics required to pencil out how the Yankees will deploy and rest starters such as Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia down the stretch was exhausting, but it was crystal clear how Sabathia was undeniably exempt from the discussion.

He is cemented in as their No. 1 starter, and since the club failed to sign Cliff Lee last offseason, it is vital that it re-sign Sabathia.

The southpaw has said he wants to stay, and the huge mansion he has built in New Jersey is a pretty good indication he means it. But, then again, who knows what he’s going to decide?

Would anyone really be shocked if Sabathia said that he wants to be a free agent again? The Yankees certainly have to prepare for that, which is why they will probably never let him get that far because they will renegotiate a new, even more massive contract — adding to his current $23 million a year deal.

But let’s say the Yankees screw it up, or they don’t but Sabathia wants out and, like Lee, the Yankees can’t pay him enough. You don’t think John Henry will have his private jet ready to whisk Theo Epstein to Sabathia’s doorstep the second he is on the open market?

Ortiz’ pending free agency is not so complicated, and it’s a lot easier to see how the Red Sox could decide that — given Ortiz’ late-career productivity — he is going to ask for more years than Epstein is comfortable to give.

The Yankees do not have a true DH now, even though they might as well reserve the spot for Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez as they enter their dotage. But if they think they could find room for Ortiz for a couple of years, there is no disputing that Ortiz’ pull power to Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch is as perfect a player-ballpark fit as there is in baseball.

If this does happen, I will puke.

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Last night was just the 8th time since 1991 where the Yankees played a game at Fenway Park, that was 9-innings or less, where they held the Red Sox to 2 runs or less while throwing 140 or more pitches in the contest.  Here are the eight games:

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Tonight was the jab. Hopefully, tomorrow afternoon will be the cross. And, then, the Yankees can go for the knockout on Sunday.

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Via Pete Abe -

Based on the standings in the American League right now, the Red Sox or Yankees will be the wild-card team.

As the Red Sox proved in 2004, that is not necessarily a big deal.

But it could be this year.

The wild card team could well get Texas and the Sox are 6-16 against the Rangers the last three years, 2-10 in Arlington. Anything can happen in the postseason, but clearly he Rangers are not a good matchup for the Sox.

The Yankees probably feel the same way, having lost to Texas in the ALCS last fall.

That’s what makes the final 52 games of the season interesting. Win the division and you get home field against a team from the Central. Lose and you could be en route to Texas and a few days in roasting heat against the defending league champs.

There are times when it’s better to rest up and not worry about home field. This may not be one of those years.

“Clubs are built around your ballpark, that’s the bottom line,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said on Thursday. “If you can have a home series at your ballpark and home field advantage, you want that.”

Hey, what about the Angels?

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Via Tony Massarotti

With 52 games to go, the American League East is now the purest of dead heats. Boston and New York both are in comfortable possession of a playoff spot, eight games ahead of even the American League West-leading Texas Rangers, perhaps on a collision course for the American League Championship Series.

Under the circumstances … edge, Yankees?

“I wouldn’t say [that],’’ Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday during an interview on 98.5 The Sports Hub.

“When Theo Epstein and his staff approached the winter dealing with areas of weakness on the roster, he was able to shore them up in the winter time. As I entered spring training, I still had question marks remaining. Andy Pettitte had retired. We failed in getting Cliff Lee. So the questions were, `Who was going to able to do what?’

“I had things that needed to be answered where they didn’t. And I think a lot of those question marks have turned into very positive answers for us as the season has played out, so I think we’ve closed the gap considerably.”

Hard to debate that – considering the standings this morning. Of course, there’s still two months of baseball to be played.

What do you think? Are the Yankees now the team to beat in the A.L. East? Or, is it still the Red Sox?

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When was the last time the Yankees went into Fenway Park, in August, and didn’t do well? You probably have to go back to 1995 for that one.

In August 2009, the Yankees took two of three at Fenway. Ditto in 2003. In August 2006, they swept three at Fenway. In 2002, they took two of two.

But, back in ’95, New York lost two of three to the Sox, in Boston during August. (For the record, in August 1993, the Yankees took two of three at Fenway. And, in August 1985, they swept three at Fenway.)

It’s like the Yankees own the Red Sox when they play them in Fenway in August. Let’s hope it continues this weekend.

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Because, without it, the games up at Fenway tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday would be a war.

As it is, the goal of the next 52 games is to just stay healthy, sharp, and get your ducks in a row for the ALDS.

You know that’s the way the Yankees are going to play it – just look at last season.

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Every time I see Harland Williams, I think he could play Terry Francona in a movie. Anyone else see this?  Then again, I’ve always that that Joe Girardi looked a little like Chico Marx…

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Wall to wall Paul Williams. That’s ugly.

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Film at 11.

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I was at the Augusta GreenJackets/Lakewood BlueClaws game last night. Sitting two rows in front of me was a guy with a radar gun and what seemed like a ton of chart printouts. I told my kids that he was a scout and asked them if they wanted to go talk to him. (This was before the game started.) They did – and he told them he was working for the Red Sox.

Could be nothing…could be something. Who knows?

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Tampa is just about cooked. They almost have no shot at the post-season now.

Good win for the Yankees. Without this one, the story of the game would have been Posada’s pouty lip curl in the 8th inning.

Now, it’s all about the “W.”

I wonder if the Yankees will do anything for Jorgie on September 25th? If not, the fans better do something on their own. Clearly, his days in Yankeeland are over. Imagine if the Red Sox don’t sign Papi and ask Posada to come to Boston as a left-handed DH and bacl-up catcher. Would Jorge do it? Probably a stupid question. I can’t see Epstein making that offer.

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Saw most of the first half of the Yankees-Mets game on TV today.  We left the house around the 6th inning.  Listened in from there on the radio in the car – until the 8th inning when Robertson was pitching.  Figured this one, and the sweep, was in the bag.  Then, I was without any connection to Yankeeland for about 4 hours.  It wasn’t until about a half-hour ago that, I saw, on the ESPN crawl, that the Yankees blew this one, 3-2, in 10 innings.

I tell you what Suzyn, the only thing you can predict about this game is that it’s unpredictable!

Oh, crap. And, you know, now, the Mets fans are going to act like they just won the last 12 World Series in a row…

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Rich Coutinho thinks this series has some “juice” -

After covering years and years of the Subway Series, I can always tell when the encounter has some juice. Yankees fans gets more snarky about the Mets. They’ll downplay the series as an unimportant break in their schedule.

That’s what I’ve been hearing this week.

If you hear Yankees fans tell it, you’ll hear that the Bombers have clearly dominated the Subway Series. Truth be told, the Yankees have taken only one season series from the Mets since 2003. The Mets have won two in that time. Most years the teams end up in an even 3-3 split.

That one and only year since 2003 in which the Yankees took the season series? The Mets’ injury-ravaged 2009 season. Truthfully, both teams have been bit by the injury bug this year. They have received tremendous contributions from guys like Freddie Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Justin Phillips and Dillon Gee. That’s been great to see. All four of those players will be on display this weekend, and it would not surprise me if any one of them has a huge moment sometime in the next three days.

Now don’t get me wrong, it’s a long way from the heyday of the series, 1998-2000, when the teams played spirited, passionate sets (punctuated by the gutless acts of Roger Clemens).

But there’s something about the series this weekend that has some major juice. Both teams are playing well. The Yankees own their league’s best record. The Mets might just be the most resilient team in their league as evidenced by their 36-27 record since their 5-13 start. Even the absence of Derek Jeter and David Wright won’t take any of the steam away from the showdown.

What do you think, and, what are your predictions for this one?

Me? I think the Mets have an edge in the pitching match-ups – especially since Colon could be rusty. And, the Mets are scoring a lot of runs lately. The Yankees will need all of their hot bats (Posada, Tex, A-Rod, Swisher, et al) to do some damage in these games. Of course, it’s going to be hard to get Posada some playing time. I just hope this weekend doesn’t become the “Jose Reyes Show.” I’m already sick of this dog and his “walk year” standout season. It’s the biggest contract push since A-Rod in 2007.

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The 2011 Boston Red Sox have won 44 of their first 72 games this season.

From 1996 through 2010, there have been 39 teams to win 44+ of their first 72…and 77% of them went on to win their division.

I’m just saying…

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