Kennedy Shines Saturday In Triple-A

Updating the Ian Kennedy watch….

Yesterday, in Lehigh Valley, Ian Kennedy pitched a gem of a game: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER and 2 SO.

Granted, Lehigh Valley has the third lowest team OPS in the International League - and is only 6 points away from having the worst team OPS in the I.L.

So, who knows what this all really means?

Ian Kennedy Watch

If I’m doing my math right, Ian Kennedy should be on the hill today for the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees. If not, he should be starting again soon. Today is the fifth day since his last start.

And, how has Kennedy been doing down in Triple-A? Since July 3rd, Ian has thrown 11 innings - allowing 21 base-runners and 7 earned runs. Granted, it’s a small sample size…but, that’s ugly.

It would be nice to see Kennedy turn in a solid outing the next time he toes the rubber. He could use it. As it’s going for him now, he’s a long way from getting another shot in the majors.

67 Bottles Of Beer On The Wall

Anthony McCarron of the Daily News does a great job at pulling together all the numbers for the Yankees at this moment:

The third-place Yankees are one game better than they were last season after 95 games, when they went 45-22 (.672) over their last 67 games to win the AL wild card at 94-68. But some might argue that many of their players are not only a year older now, but also a year less effective.

If you believe that 94 victories will get them a playoff spot this year, that means they must go 44-23 (.657) in the second half.

Here are some other numbers to keep in mind: 43 of the Yanks’ remaining games are against teams currently above .500, including nine each against the Red Sox and Angels and six against the Rays. Thirteen of their remaining 21 series are against winning teams. Their second-half opponents have a .536 winning percentage. Seven of their next eight series are against teams that were over .500 at the break, which could challenge Girardi’s desire to “Get out of the gate fast.”

The Yankees play 13 of their next 16 games at Yankee Stadium, but 32 of their last 51 are on the road. The Yankees (23-23) are one of six teams at .500 or better on the road.

After leading baseball last season by scoring 5.98 runs per game, the Yanks are averaging 4.59 this season, thanks perhaps equally to injuries and ineffectiveness. They have scored three runs or less 42 times this season - the same total as all of last year.

They have lost Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui to injury for stretches, but they are also awful with runners in scoring position - 26th in baseball with a .713 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) with RISP. The four teams below them on that list are San Diego, Seattle, Toronto and Washington. Toronto entered the break one game under .500, but the others are the three worst clubs in baseball. The major-league average OPS-with-RISP is .756.

Sorta backs-up what Bob Klapisch wrote ten days ago. The Yankees are going to need some serious magic to make it to October in 2008. Maybe it’s time to start “selling” now - rather than to wait another week and then make the call?

For example, you probably could have sold Mussina on going to the Phillies - because it’s close to home for him and they are contending. (Plus, it’s a chance to team up with Jamie Moyer!) But, now that the Phils have acquired Joe Blanton, there’s less urgency/need there today and you’re not going to get as much back for Moose.

Sometimes, just like when you’re selling tickets to a game, it’s not best to wait until the last possible minute to sell. In those spots, you often end up selling at a discount.

The Yankees only have a few chips to trade - like Mussina and Farnsworth. Sure, they could try to move Giambi and Abreu too - but those are going to be harder sells…for many reasons. It would be a shame to see the value of those chips spoil in the store display window, no?

The Giambi Watch

No, not what everyone seems to be looking at, in regard to “The Big G,” on the ‘net today - thanks to Deadspin.

It’s this one.

As of today, the countdown is 5 homers and 16 RBI to go…

I better get my butt down to Staples before the mad “back to school” rush and get some poster paper and markers. It’s almost “Picture Day” for me on this one.

Boorstein & Me: What Lies Ahead For Yanks?

Tom Boorstein of SNY.tv and I had a quick chat about where the Yankees are - and where they’re going. Click here to see what we had to say.

Gone Farming

I’ll be heading over to Staten Island this evening to watch the Baby Bombers take on the Batavia Muckdogs.

I’m looking forward to checking out guys like David Adams, Pat Venditte, Mitch Abeita, Luke Greinke, Dan Brewer, Brad Rulon, Ray Kruml, Josue Selenes, Michael Lyon and Addison Maruszak…

If you also happen to be at the game, and see someone there who you think is me, please do say hello.

Update, 7/17/08, 8:29 AM ET: It usually takes me around 80 minutes to get to Richmond County Bank Ballpark - were the S.I. Yanks play. It’s 40 minutues from my house to the Outerbridge Crossing and then about 40 minutes to get to the park, find a parking spot, etc.

So, for this 7 pm game, I left my house at 5:15 pm - thinking that would give me 25 minutes to spare. Ah, the best laid plans…

However, there was an accident that closed one lane on the Outerbridge - and traffic backed-up…and then some. From 5:50 pm until 6:30 pm, I basically sat on the highway with my car in park (most of the time).

I was working the buttons on my X-M pretty hard - being in the car by myself, bored out of my mind. Heard some good oldies…from Ini Kamoze, Green Day, Chumbawamba, Sir Mix-A-Lot…thank goodness for X-M.

Based on my rate of “speed,” I figured it was going to be around 7 pm by the time I made it to the bridge. And, then, by the time I got over the bridge and to the game, it was going to be close to eight o’clock. That means I would have been arriving around the fourth or fifth inning. So, it was time to abort the plan. Once I crawled up to the last exit in New Jersey before the bridge, I did an about-face and came home.

In place of the game, I grabbed a couple of slices of pizza on the trip back and then watched an episode of Prison Break on DVD. (I started re-watching the first season a few days back. It’s still awesome - even though I watched them all when the first aired.) Hey, when life gives you lemons, right?

So, my apologies to anyone who was at the game and who wasted some time looking for me. I wasn’t there. Looks like I missed a good one too.

A-Rod Opens Up On “Distractions”

Via the San Francisco Chronicle:

Alex Rodriguez knew the Madonna questions were coming. He knew he wouldn’t sit with reporters for 50 minutes without getting asked about his pending divorce and relationship with the pop queen.

A-Rod said it helps to get through his personal soap opera by focusing on baseball.

“Look, everyone has distractions,” he said. “Everyone goes through personal issues. Mine are on the front page of the papers. I’m fine with that. It’s a gift and a curse. I’ll get through it. So much good goes with it. I’m not blaming anyone. I’ve just got to move forward.”

Yankees teammate Derek Jeter is another story.

“I’ve only been dealing with New York for five years. He’s had to deal with it for 13 years. He’s been a model citizen,” A-Rod said. “I wish I was as good as him dealing with you guys. I’m not.”

One other difference: “He was a Yankee fan; I was a Met fan. That’s why everyone hates me,” A-Rod said with a smile.

…[Jeter] was a Yankee fan; I was a Met fan. That’s why everyone hates me…

Willie Randoph was a Mets fan as a kid and later became a beloved Yankee. Joe Torre was a Mets player and manager, and he rooted for the Giants as a kid, and he became a beloved Yankee. Heck, Phil Hughes grew up rooting for the Red Sox, and, to many Yankees fans he’s great and can-do-no-wrong.

Yeah, I know A-Rod is supposed to be kidding when he said this…but, it’s still a stupid thing to say. In fact, why even bring up Jeter in the first place? What’s he got to do with any of the attention that Alex has brought on himself? Sounds like Rodriguez still has a little inferiority complex when it comes to Jeter and how they are both viewed in the eyes of baseball fans and the media.

Allard: Cashman Yawns As Yanks Limp

Via Phil Allard:

Cashman’s passivity is costing the Yankee wins. How many? It’s impossible to say with complete certaintly. But the Yanks are scoring 4.6 runs a game this year, as opposed to 5.9 last year. Perhaps Cashman is waiting until closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but by then, the Yanks could be too far behind for an extra bat to do much good.

For now, Cashman sits and watches, biding his team until the injuries heal, doing very little to help the team win.

And there is the pitching predicament. Cashman’s answers so far to bolster the rotation and provide an improvement over Darrel Rasner and Sidney Ponson are to work out Victor Zambrano and, god forbid, Eric “Moonshot” Milton.

Cashman took a chance this year, hoping that Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes were ready to start the season in the rotation. They weren’t. In fact, they failed terribly. This is not to criticize Cashman for not getting Johan Santana. I was in favor of not making that trade then and I am still happy the Yanks didn’t sign Santana to a long-term contract.

The problem here is that Cashman had no contingency plan, nothing to back up two rookies who were rushed into the rotation, and no solutions to an anemic-and often clueless–offense.

Hey, Phil, as much as I want to, in my best Edward G. Robinson impersonation, say “Where’s your messiah now, Moses?“…instead, I’ll just say “Welcome to the dark side buddy!”

Good job, Mr. Allard, in summing up where we are and how we got here.

Cole, DeVall, & Odorizzi

I noticed that the Yankees 2008 first round pick Gerrit Cole made the “Second Team” for Baseball America’s 2008 High School All-American Teams.

It’s funny - with all you hear about Cole - that he couldn’t crack the “First Team.”

I also noticed that two high school pitchers who were drafted after the Yankees selected Cole made the first team: Brett DeVall (who was drafted by the Braves) and Jake Odorizzi (who was drafted by the Brewers).

Brett DeVall caught my eye here - because I thought, going into the 2008 draft, that if the Yankees went for a high school pitcher with their first pick, they would have grabbed DeVall.

It will be interesting to track the careers of Cole, DeVall, and Odorizzi - to see which of the these three high school arms turns out to be the better big league pitcher. The Yankees think it’s going to be Cole - because they had a chance to take DeVall or Odorizzi and passed on them to take him.

Matt Murton

Via George King -

The Yankees are keeping tabs on Pirates outfielders Xavier Nady and Jason Bay and new A’s Matt Murton because they believe their biggest need is a right-handed bat.

And they haven’t dismissed signing Richie Sexson who was released by the Mariners yesterday.

Murton went from the Cubs to the A’s in the Rich Harden deal.

I’ve already discussed Sexson and suggested Nady. But, Matt Murton? Isn’t he a daredevil?

Oh, wait, that’s Matt Murdock. Never mind…

Seriously, before this season Murton has beat up on left-handed pitching. So, maybe he can help the Yankees? The trick is…what will Billy Beane want in return?

Richie Sexson

Seattle has cut ties with Richie Sexson.

You know, for the last two seasons, Sexson has been, on the whole, a terrible hitter. How bad?

Put it this way, from Opening Day 2007 through last night, Sexson has posted an Offensive Winning Percentage of .398 (in 783 PA). During that same period of time, Melky Cabrera has posted an Offensive Winning Percentage of .397 (in 956 PA). Get the picture?

However, as bad as he’s been the last two seasons, Sexson still hits LHP. Note his BA/OBP/SLG splits for the last two years combined (to date):

vs. RHP: .188/.282/.360
vs. LHP: .277/.366/.494

If the Yankees are looking for someone to come off the bench and play 1B and/or DH against LHP, it seems like Richie Sexson might be worth a roll of the dice.

Prince Hal Talks Kids & Future

Via the AP -

“The young pitchers at the beginning of year,” [Hal Steinbrenner] said, “it was upsetting at times. It wasn’t what we thought. It didn’t go exactly the way we thought it would go. But, you know, that’s the way it is. We’re highly confident in Kennedy and Hughes and that they’re going to come back strong when they do come back.”

“This is New York, and the fans deserve a team with marquee players,” Steinbrenner said. “Where we want to end up is a tremendous mix of young talent and veterans. And the veterans, the free agents, they cost money. And we realize that. We are going to have a lot of money come off the payroll, and that’s going to give us some options. But believe me, we’re going to use a good portion of it to get this city the team it deserves.”

Duly noted Hal.

Now, let’s see it happen.

DJ: Still Yanks Cover Boy

Look who’s on the cover of the Yankees’ Season Ticket Licensee Limited Edition Official Program for the 2008 All-Star Game:

What, No A-Rod?

What, no A-Rod? Guess not…just Jeter and the Babe…

To Catch Posada Or Molina?

The Post, today, looks at the question. A snip:

“Every day we just look at it,” Girardi said. “There’s more to it than just throwing the baseball. But I’m very happy with the way Josie’s catching and you look at [Tampa Bay], this is a club that chooses to run a lot, and I just felt that this was our best lineup. Especially this way I can get both right-handers in the lineup and I just felt this was the best lineup tonight.”

I think General Joe might be thinking back to 1997 through 1999 - when he caught 254 games for the Yankees and Posada caught 268 games…where, bascially, the two players shared the position for a three-year period.

During that time, Girardi was the “defensive catcher” with no stick - like Jose Molina is now.

Granted, if Molina is going to throw out 40+% of base-stealers, that’s a great weapon when you’re playing teams like the Rays, Red Sox and Angels.

Still, if both Damon and Matsui are out…which means you’re going to have a weaker bat in left…and with Melky not hitting much…can you play Molina and then spot the other team nine “free” outs per game between Molina/Gardner/Melky? (And, this assumes that Posada is the D.H. and Betemit is not playing - because if Betemit is playing, then it’s worse.)

After all, part of the reason why the Yankees scoring is down this season is because guys like Molina, Betemit, and Ensberg (while he was here) are getting way too many At Bats. (Well, that along with guys like Abreu and Jeter having sub-par seasons - and guys like Melky and Cano having some really bad cold streaks.)

Hughes: Slowest.Healer.Ever?

Via Tyler Kepner:

Phil Hughes has missed more than two months with a fractured rib but has still not been cleared to throw off a mound. Hughes is playing catch, and Brian Cashman said he expected him to pitch in minor league games next month.

Boy, that must have been some fractured rib.

Hughes was placed on the D.L. on April 30th. Now, ten weeks later, he’s still a month away from pitching in a game again. Three months to heal from an injury that was not severe enough for Hughes to even remember how it occurred?

From what I can find, it seems like the standard recovery time for a fractured rib is 4-6 weeks. So, what’s up with Hughes? Or, are the Yankees just babying him?

Time For Yanks To Attack

At this moment, the Yankees are 9 games back, in the loss column, behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays - with 73 games to play this season.

Now, suppose that Scott Kazmir edges Andy Pettitte in a close one this evening; and, then, the Rays pound Sidney Ponson tomorrow afternoon (while Edwin Jackson holds the Yankees to four runs). Hey, it’s possible for these things to happen. If you don’t think so…then you’re not paying attention this season.

If the Rays win their next two games against the Yankees, that would put New York 11 games back of Tampa Bay, in the loss column, with 71 games left for the Yankees to play. (These 71 games would include six more with Tampa Bay.)

Would a Rays sweep of the Yankees, over the next two games, pretty much knock the Yankees out of the race for the A.L. East flag this season? It might, it just might…

For this reason, the Yankees need to come out of the chute tonight like a team looking to kick some patootie and take names later. New York cannot afford to start this game with a “O.K., let’s stick our toes in the water, ease into this, and see where it goes” attitude. If they do, there’s a great chance that the Rays will steamroll right over the Yankees and knock New York flat on its back - as, it seems, once you allow the young Rays to get some momentum in a contest, their emotion and enthusiasm starts to snowball.

It’s time to use that ol’ Billy Martin approach of “Get the first run in a game, get it early, and then start tacking on from there.”

It will be interesting to watch the very first inning of tonight’s game…as it could be a clue as to what to expect for the rest of this series.

Yanks Were In Sabathia Chase

Via Jack Curry -

In acquiring Sabathia, the Brewers beat out the Phillies, another team that was willing to make the trade without requiring a window to negotiate a possible contract extension. The Yankees had discussions with the Indians, but were unwilling to make a deal unless they could sign Sabathia beyond 2008. The Yankees will probably be serious players in trying to sign him when he becomes a free agent after the season.

Personally, I think it would be a mistake to chase Sabathia as a free agent.

The guy is 28-years old and weighs a reported 290 pounds. So, he’s probably closer to 300 pounds now than he is at anything else. You think his eating and conditioning is going to get better - after he signs a multi-year, mega-million dollar, contract? No way. He’ll be close to 325 pounds before his 30th birthday. And, after thirty? He’ll be too big to be counted on…of this, I have little doubt. Please, Yankees, pass. As crazy as it sounds, because you need starting pitching, I hope the Yankees do not chase this guy as a free agent.

C.C. Sabathia - What If?

Reportedly, the Brewers have traded Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Taylor Green to the Indians for C.C. Sabathia.

So, here’s the question: If you’re the Yankees, and Cleveland offered you Sabathia, now, in exchange for (Yankees prospects) Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Adam Olbrychowski, and Brad Suttle, would you have made the deal? (Yes, I know that Olbrychowski is on the D.L. now - but, this is just a “What if?” thing.)

I believe that the Yankees package, as I have pitched it here, is equal to what the Brewers gave up - thereabouts, give or take.

Personally, I think the Yankees could afford to trade Alan Horne, Adam Olbrychowski and Brad Suttle in the right deal. Austin Jackson? I dunno…given the play of Melky, the contract status of Abreu, and the injury risks with Damon and Matsui…the Yankees might really need Jackson - and sooner rather than later. Then again, this assumes that Austin Jackson does not regress as he gets closer to the majors.

It’s a tough call for me. What do you say?

Survey Reminder

If you haven’t taken it already, please consider checking out our July 2008 Survey Question #2. Your feedback on this one is appreciated. Thanks.

Cashman: Answers Are Right Here

Via the Times -

More than once lately, Johnny Damon has expressed concern that the Yankees could become sellers instead of buyers if they do not improve before the July 31 trading deadline.

Asked about that concern on Friday, General Manager Brian Cashman said: “We’re trying to find a way to get this thing to where it needs to be, which is a postseason berth. That’s the mind-set.”

Even so, the Yankees are content to let the C. C. Sabathia sweepstakes go on without them. They have not been serious about Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians ace who could soon land with the Milwaukee Brewers in a trade.

“It’s up to myself, my staff and my players to figure it out together and certainly not count on something from the outside,” Cashman said. “Most of the answers are right here in front of us. Our players are better than this.”

You know, these 2008 Yankees are an interesting bunch. On hitting, you have some guys - like Damon and Matsui - who are having great years. Then, you have some guys - like Cabrera and Cano - who are having terrible years. These offset and bring you to “average.” Then, you have some guys with great numbers - like Giambi and A-Rod - who don’t hit in the clutch. But, you also have guys - like Jeter and Abreu - who are having down years but sometimes come through in the clutch. These offset and bring you to “average.”

It’s the same thing with the pitching. In the starting rotation, you have guys doing better than average - like Mussina and Chamberlain. But, they’re offset by guys doing poorly - like Rasner and Ponson. Throw in a guy doing just average - Pettitte - and the whole thing brings you to “average.”

The funny thing is…the Yankees bullpen (which was their biggest question mark coming into the season) has been pretty darn good this season (to date).

So, how do you fix the Yankees? It’s pretty simple…

You need Cano and Cabrera to start hitting. Either that, or, they need to be replaced. You need A-Rod and Giambi to start delivering clutch hits. You need Jeter and Abreu to be more consistent. And, you need to find two capable starting pitchers to join Pettitte, Chamberlain and Mussina.

So, yes, on the hitting side, this is on the players. But, the pitching? Well, unless the Yankees think that someone like Ian Kennedy, Jeff Karstens, or Dan McCutchen is ready to start making a positive impact as a big league starting pitcher, well, then, you’re going to have to go outside the organization for some help.

A Subconscious Scream?

I had a dream about Alex Rodriguez last night. This one was different than the last time.

In this one, some of my friends and I were employees of the Yankees. Don’t ask me what we did for the team - as I have no idea.

We - as in myself, my friends, and the Yankees - were staying in a hotel/conference center facility. It was during the season. And, the purpose of us being there was to attend a ‘state of the union’ type debriefing from (the team’s) senior management.

I cannot remember most of the details from the start of the dream. From what I can recall, it was a very noisy night at the hotel - and it was difficult to sleep in my room. I was bothered by this because we had ‘the big meeting’ first thing in the morning.

What happened after that night is much more clear (in my memory). There was a continental breakfast set-up outside a large conference area (in the hotel). It was sparse. And, all I could find was bottled water and granola bars. So, I decided to skip breakfast and went straight into the meeting area.

Once I passed through the doors and entered the conference, I found myself in the balcony of a huge theater. It was already jammed packed with people - who I assume were also Yankees employees. I found my friends and quickly took a seat. We were in the first few rows of the balcony - and had to look almost directly down to see the stage.

The meeting started as soon as I sat down. Alex Rodriguez was on the stage to open the session. This is what he said:

“Welcome everyone. Please be seated as we’re starting the meeting now. I’ve been asked to open it up with some great news. You probably heard a lot of noise at the hotel last night. That was a celebration in my room over some information that we just learned and are now happy to share with everyone here today.

We’re set a new record. Over the last seven days, I’ve hit more homeruns than I’ve ever hit over any seven day period - AND, at the same time, the Yankees have sold more tickets for the seven games than they’re ever sold for any seven game period.”

The moment A-Rod finished saying that, I stood up and screamed (back at him):

I guess it doesn’t matter that the team sucks, right?

However, there was an ovation swelling at the same time - a response from the audience to what Rodriguez said - and, between that applause and the fact that I was way up in the balcony, no one heard what I had yelled back to A-Rod. (Or, they heard it and were just ignoring it.)

That’s all I remember from the dream.

Well, at the least, there’s not a lot of mystery about what this dream means, is there?

Happy Birthday Big Stein!

George Steinbrenner turns 78 today. Happy Birthday Boss!

Hopefully his team will show up today and maybe get a win.

Klapisch: Jeter’s Decline Is Insidious

From Bob Klapisch - following the Yankees loss yesterday:

But there’s no work-around for the slow, insidious decline in Derek Jeter’s performance, one which will eventually bring the Yankees to a brutal, crossroads decision.

At what point will the Bombers decide they can no longer afford to a light-hitting, heavy-strikeout presence in the No. 2 spot? Even more pressing is Jeter’s shrinking range and the need to someday move him out of shortstop.

One major league scout wondered out loud, “Who in that organization is going to be the one to make the move [to shift Jeter to another position]. Who has enough juice to do that?”

Even Jeter’s arm, once his strongest asset in the field, seems to be abandoning him at times now. His throwing error in the first inning doomed Pettitte, although the left-hander said, “I was just awful out there. I couldn’t command anything; my location was terrible.”

Still, things might have been different if Jeter, who recently turned 34, was able to complete what appeared to be a routine, inning-ending double play off the bat Manny Ramirez.

However…

In his last 20 games, Jeter is batting .304 (with an OBA of .382). Further, he was only whiffed 9 times in 90 PA during these 20 games. Additionally, this season, with RISP, Jeter has the following BA/OBA/SLG line: .307/.372/.413 (in 88 PA). And, with a runner on 3rd and 2 outs, Derek’s line is .400/.438/.533 (in 16 PA).

Yes, for a while this season, Jeter looked bad. But, he’s come around lately.

Well, Did I Pass?

I had to travel into New York City today to take a psychometric assessment for a potential long-term contractual job with a major international financial institution. The assessment is one of these two hour tests where they look into your verbal, numerical and abstract reasoning abilities as well as your personality profile.

So, I jumped on the train (New Jersey Transit) this morning and headed into the city. When I got on the train, there was a group sitting across from me. They were all in their early- to mid-twenties. It was three guys and two girls. From their conversation, I could tell that they were headed into the city for a while and then heading to the Yankees game.

While they were chatting, one of the guys actually said “Sidney Ponson is pitching for the Yankees. He’s five and one; so, he’s one of their best pitchers.”

No, he wasn’t joking when he said this to his friends.

When I heard him say this, I thought to myself “Gosh, this guy is an idiot.”

It’s too bad that my psychometric assessment administrators were not there for my observation. I mean, how’s that for abstract reasoning abilities? Maybe that would have been proof enough and I could have saved myself a trip into the city (and seven and a half hours) in the process?

The Last 10 Games

The Yankees have now played 10 games since they had a chance to beat up against the Astros and Padres. What have the Yankees done in these 10 games?

New York has gone 4-6. And, this was against teams such as the Reds, Pirates, Mets…and one game against the Rangers. When you factor in how messed up the Mets are…and look at the rosters of the Reds and Pirates…you have to wonder how the Yankees have lost six of these last ten games?

In these last ten, the Yankees pitchers have posted an ERA of 4.19 and have allowed a BA/OBA/SLG line of .289/.344/.438 - and, when you factor in that two of the six losses where blow-outs, by the scores of 15-6 and 12-5, you have to say that New York’s pitching, in the last ten games, overall, has been decent.

How about the Yankees batters? Well, in their last ten games, the Yankees have scored a total of 41 runs. Do the math: That’s 4.1 runs per game. And, that’s not awesome. Here’s the worst part: In these ten games, the Yankees batters have 390 PA and have put together the following BA/OBP/SLG line: .253/.336/.371 - yes, that’s a slugging percentage of three-seventy-one. Not very Bronx Bomberish, is it?

But, it’s all the same old story. Allow 4.19 earned runs per game and score 4.1 runs per game. It’s no wonder that they’ve just about played .500 in these games.

Last week, I wrote:

It’s all about run differential. If you’re a hitting team, you need to score more than you allow to win games. If you’re a pitching team, you need to allow less runs than you score to win. Right now, the Yankees are not a hitting or a pitching team. They’re a hit as well as you pitch team - scoring about as much as they allow. Hence, the near-.500 record.

Well, nothing has changed in the past week. The question is: Will it ever change for the Yankees this season?

Time To Bench Melky?

Brett Gardner made Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet for June 27th. Here’s what they had to say about him:

One of the IL’s steadiest performers all season, Gardner in the past month has become one of its very best. He’s batting .326/.446/.457 through 92 June at-bats, with 11 steals in 12 attempts, and on the season he now leads the league in on-base percentage (.417), stolen bases (30 in 38 tries), walks (57) and triples (10), while ranking third in runs scored (58). The quintessential leadoff man, Gardner has reached base in 71 of the 77 games in which he’s played this season.

Since May 1st of this season, Melky Cabrera has put together the following BA/OBP/SLG line: .231/.294/.301 (in 206 PA).

Would it be a crime - especially with Matsui out - to send down Justin Christian, call up Gardner to play CF, and then bench Cabrera?

Melky could still play the role of fourth outfielder - and be an excellent defensive sub on the corners late in a game (as he throws better than Damon in left and has more range than Abreu in right).

What are the Yankees afraid of here? That Gardner might not hit? Well, as long as his OBA is above .300, Brett would be more useful - with the bat - than Melky is now.

Jon Garland

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are playing way over their head, to date. They have a W-L record of 48-32 compared to a Pythagorean W-L record of 41-39.

Suppose that the Angels start to come back down to earth…and are then willing to deal pitcher Jon Garland (as he will be a free agent at the end of the season). Should the Yankees make a run at him? Would you trade Ian Kennedy for him? Someone else?

Related, what about this winter, when Garland is a free agent? Should the Yankees look to sign him? He’s young - as he will be 29 next year. He’s extremely durable. And, he’s never been terrible. Could the Yankees use someone like this in their rotation next season?

Yanks Farm Lacking Impact Player?

The second of two today from Ken Rosenthal:

Rival scouts and executives are somewhat divided over the quality of the Yankees’ farm system, which ranked fifth in the 2008 Baseball America organization rankings.

Critics, pointing to the stalled developments of pitchers such as Ian Kennedy and Jeff Marquez, say the Yankees overrate their prospects, something to which practically every organization could plead guilty.

“I’ve seen a lot of guys who will play in the big leagues and pitch in the big leagues,” says one rival scout who is assigned to the Yankees’ system. “But I haven’t seen an impact player.”

The Yankees, however, possess so many highly regarded young arms, some are bound to succeed. What’s more, they might need to deal only one top young player — say, right-hander Phil Hughes — if the Indians value quality over quantity in a Sabathia trade.

Another area of depth for the Yankees is center field; Melky Cabrera, 23, is in the majors; Brett Gardner, 24, is at Class AAA; Austin Jackson, 21 at Class AA.

Gardner an 80 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, is a Juan Pierre/Brett Butler type, only he draws more walks than Pierre. Some scouts question whether he will hit, but at worst he should become a good extra outfielder.

Jackson has perhaps the highest upside of any position player in the Yankees’ organization.

Back in 2000, the Yankees reportedly had a wealth of up-and-coming pitching talent. And, as I shared yesterday, in 2002, the Yankees - according to Baseball America - had the fifth best farm system in all of baseball.

So, from 2000 to 2002, the Yankees were supposedly teeming with prospects - more so than most teams in baseball. Well, it’s now 2008 - and how are all those prospects working out today?

I don’t know about you; but, I’m really starting to get tired of hearing about how the Yankees future is so bright because of all the prospects in their system. It’s starting to look more and more like a bill of goods…being sold by Brian Cashman…when you consider that we were hearing these same things back in 2000-02.

Girardi, Or Bad Play, Helping Yanks Pen?

One of two today from Ken Rosenthal:

Joe Torre’s biggest weakness as Yankees manager was that he overused his most trusted relievers. Bullpen management, by contrast, could prove to be one of Joe Girardi’s biggest strengths.

Girardi is spreading the workload among his relievers more evenly than Torre did — and the Yankees’ bullpen, even after losing Joba Chamberlain to the rotation, continues to perform well.
Since May 29, the day after Chamberlain’s last relief appearance, Yankees relievers are 6-3 with a 3.25 ERA, nine saves in 10 opportunities and a .236 opponents’ batting average, according to STATS Inc. In 74 2/3 innings, they have struck out 76 and walked 29.

At least part of the credit goes to Girardi, who makes use of all 12 of his pitchers — as opposed to Torre, who rarely trusted more than eight.

Overall, the Yankees rank fourth in the American League in fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings. Girardi’s relievers are embracing their increased opportunities — and proving that they deserve the chance.

Interesting points. But, what I think is helping here is that the Yankees, to date, have been involved in 24 “Blowouts” (meaning a game with a final score that was 5+ runs one way or the other). And, 11 of those 24 have been losses. It’s easier to use your bad pen men in those games - and spread around your bullpen load.

By comparison, last season, the Yankees only had 19 “Blowout” losses on the entire season.

A Pinstriped Stream Of Consciousness

Just some random thoughts…O.K., yeah, it’s more of a rant…about the upcoming Subway Series with the Mets…and what’s ahead for the Yankees this season.

Raise your hand if you’re thrilled about the notion of Squire Dan Giese and Sir Sidney Ponson starting for the Yankees in the double-header scheduled against the Mets on Friday.

I’m not seeing many hands.

Oh, well, I guess it could be worse. If Andy Hawkins and Hideki Irabu were not officially retired, maybe the Yankees would have reached out to them to start these games?

Yes, I know, as Yankees fans, outwardly, we’re supposed to look at these games against the Mets and say “Inter-league? Big deal. It’s played. Means nothing. These games are no more important than any other game, etc.” However, on the inside, as a Yankees fan, many of us do have some “Big Stein” in us that says “Don’t lose to the Mets!”

I mean, really, what Yankees fan wants to watch the Mets Jose Reyes do his little happy dance over the next three days at the expense of the Girardi Boys?

Oh, there’s plenty of potential for ugly, in Yankeeland, on Friday with Ponson and Giese on the mound. At least Saturday’s game should be good - Pettitte versus Santana. Sunday? Rasner and Perez? That’s anyone’s guess. Both of these pitchers are capable of having a shut-down type effort or imploding, big-time.

Part of me says “Be happy with a split against the Mets.” But, then again, the Mets are still somewhat licking their own wounds. So, should the Yankees feel good about allowing them to take two of these games?

Anyway, let’s look at the bigger picture. Since May 20th, the Yankees are 22-12…a nice solid ten games over .500. However - and, yes, you knew there was going to be a however - the Yankees have also gone 9-0 against the Mariners, Astros, and Padres since May 20th. So, basically, outside of playing some really bad teams, the Yankees have been playing about .500 ball since May 20th.

What about before May 20th? Well, in their first 27 games of this season, the Yankees went 14-13. And, in their next 17 games, they went 6-11. That’s not impressive. Need I go on?

Here’s the deal: Offensively and defensively (meaning pitching) the Yankees have been around the middle of the pack, to date, in the American League. They’ve scored 366 runs and they’ve allowed 344 runs. And, this why they’re a near-.500 ballclub.

It’s all about run differential. If you’re a hitting team, you need to score more than you allow to win games. If you’re a pitching team, you need to allow less runs than you score to win. Right now, the Yankees are not a hitting or a pitching team. They’re a hit as well as you pitch team - scoring about as much as they allow. Hence, the near-.500 record.

In the second half of this season, the Yankees need to pick a plan of attack and improve the team so that they can follow the plan.

This means they need to improve the last two slots of their starting rotation - and become a pitching team. Or, they need to start getting some offense from Jeter, Cano, Cabrera and Abreu and become a monster hitting team.

Now, it seems, lately, like Jeter, Cano and Abreu are starting to hit. So, do the Yankees sit tight, keep serving the Cashman Kool-Aid, and wait for their team hitting to arrive and make up for the shortages in their starting rotation? That could work - but, what if Cano and Abreu are not truly coming around? And, what if Damon and Matsui’s injuries become serious? And, what if Giambi breaks down? Then, all of a sudden, it’s Posada, A-Rod, and Jeter being asked to carry the load. Is that enough?

The safer bet would be to add least one solid starting pitcher to follow Pettitte, Chamberlain and Mussina - and fill in the fifth slot with guys like Rasner, Kennedy, Hughes…and…even…gulp…Pavano…nah, not Pavano…let’s say Karstens…and hope that you get Wang back in September.

If you’re able to throw Pettitte, Chamberlain, Mussina and “Joe Solid Starter” in a row, you’re likely to start winning some series…and putting together some four and five game winning streaks. And, if that happens, then the Yankees can have a nice second half of 2008.

O.K., there. I’ve gotten all that off my chest. Whew. That feels better.

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