• Yankees June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    Posted by on May 31st, 2010 · Comments (2)

    For more on what this is, click here.

    For the month of June 2010, the New York Yankees should win 15 games and lose 11 games – all things considered, and being reasonable about it.

    I know that doesn’t seem like much – winning just four more than they lose. But, June is a funky month – with 12 road games, inter-league play, and series against the Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers…who, all, would like to beat the Yankees. This doesn’t imply that the O’s, ‘Stros, D-Backs and M’s don’t want to beat the Yankees up this month too. More so, it’s just that those four teams shouldn’t be able to win series against the Yankees whereas the other teams have some more talent.

    Comments on Yankees June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy

    1. Evan3457
      May 31st, 2010 | 9:59 am

      I see 16-10 or 17-9, not 15-11. But that’s just me.

      Log 5 calculation based on current WPCT of the various teams, with .05 adjustment on both teams for home/road is:

      Wins: 17.3 Losses: 8.7

    2. June 1st, 2010 | 8:31 am

      There are some flaws, IMHO, with using YTD WPCT – it doesn’t take into account streaks and whammies…

      For instance, the Braves YTD WPCT is nice – but, over their last 29 games, it’s off the charts. So, if the Yankees played the Braves tomorrow, what’s more important, their WPCT this season or how they are playing now?

      Also, the Twins usually have a nice WPCT. But, they NEVER beat the Yankees. So, if the Yankees are hosting the Twins this week, what’s more important, the Twins WPCT this season or the fact that they never beat the Yankees?

      My subjective approach tries to factor these types of things into it.

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