• Yankees: The First Half Of 2013

    Posted by on June 30th, 2013 · Comments (11)

    We’re now 80 games into 2013, Yankeeland.

    Overall, the Yankees are 42-38, in 3rd place, 5.5 games out of first and 1/2 game ahead of 4th place. They are on pace to win 85 games this season. The last time the Yankees won 85 games or less in a 162-game season was 1992 (for those scoring at home). That year, they finished 4th out of seven in the A.L. East.

    In their first 40 games of 2013, the Yankees went 25-15 with a team BA/OBA/SLG line of .252/.317/.416 and a team ERA of 3.67.

    In their second 40 games of 2013, the Yankees went 17-23 with a team BA/OBA/SLG line of .227/.287/.344 and a team ERA of 4.06.

    How about a June swoon? The Yankees have lost 12 of the last 17 games that they have played. Their team ERA is 4.75 during this span and their team BA/OBA/SLG line is .221/.284/.321.

    The Yankees really haven’t hit all season. And, now, their pitching is starting to go south. And, there’s no help in Triple-A for either of these fronts.

    Yes, Cervelli, Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, Youkilis and Granderson have been out for basically the whole first half. But, Cervelli is average at best and Yankees G.M. Brian Cashman knew that A-Rod was going to be out for a long time this year – way before the season started. And, he should have known that about Jeter, given his age and injury. Also, Youkilis was cooked last year already. So, if you want to cry injuries, you can only really say Teixeira and Granderson. But, that’s probably only cost the Yankees about 11 homeruns this first half. (Figure Tex and Curtis would be good for 30 combined now – and take out the 19 that Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay hit in their place.)

    In any event, what do you think the Yankees next 40 games will be like?

    Comments on Yankees: The First Half Of 2013

    1. redbug
      June 30th, 2013 | 8:54 am

      I don’t think Cashman should’ve known Jeter would break his ankle again or assume he’d have a bad year – Jeter had a great year last year.

      Agreed on Arod and Youk.

      What’s next? Assuming Jeter’s ankle is healed, I expect him to have a good 2nd 1/2. It’s Granderson’s walk yr, so he (and I) hope he puts good #’s up.

      Cervelli doesn’t bring much. Arod is a soap opera.

      I think the starting pitchers and bullpen will be the best part of the club.

      I doubt they will win even 85. The Yanks played over their heads the 1st part of the season, which is the only reason they’re over .500. Adding back healthy Jeter and Granderson won’t be enough to right the ship.

      I’m going to continue to watch because I want to see Jeter back, Andy pitch, and Mo’s last yr. Not to see good baseball.

    2. June 30th, 2013 | 9:40 am

      redbug wrote:

      I don’t think Cashman should’ve known Jeter would break his ankle again or assume he’d have a bad year

      The injury was terrible. The surgery was major. Throw in Jeter’s age and the demands of his position, and, well, counting on him to be a major contributor in 2013 was folly, IMHO.

    3. Scout
      June 30th, 2013 | 9:43 am

      The pitching has been asked to carry the club, but the mound staff just isn’t that good. Hughes, Phelps, and their possible replacements like Nova are back-end-of-the-rotation material; Pettitte and Sabathia both show signs of age; and Chamberlain is a joke. Even if there is a bit of an offensive rebound when Jeter and Granderson return, this looks like a .500 club. There’s no real help in AAA. Barring significant changes via trades, 85 wins (which I had thought realistic) now seems optimistic.

    4. EHawk
      June 30th, 2013 | 10:18 am

      @ Steve L.:
      Well I think it was more that Cashman didn’t count on the Nunez injury. I think the organization was ready to give Nunez a shot and see what they had in him and I think that was a decent move but he got hurt and that messed everything up. They had no other options in the Minors behind Nunez which is on Cashman IMO. But how many teams have 2 Major League ready SS behind their starter in this care Jeter

    5. Evan3457
      June 30th, 2013 | 11:55 am

      1) Cervelli is average at best.

      And average would be a lot better than Stewart/Romine. Probable cost to the team at his career levels: 5-10 runs.

      2) Cashman knew A-Rod was supposed to out for a long time.

      Yes, he did, and that’s why they signed Youkillis. If he signs Polanco instead, he gets .233/.299/.285 for his troubles. If he signs Reynolds instead, he’s singing another low average extreme high K guy, the kind everyone said the Yankees already had too many of. Reynolds is doing OK offensively at .236/.325/.428, but he’s at 0.0 BWAR, because his defense has negated his offense so far. The other major option was to trade multiple top prospects for Headley who is at .224/.321/.349 so far.

      3) Youkillis was cooked last year already.

      Actually, Youkillis was hitting well early in the year, before suffering the two back injuries. He was 1.6 WAR for 2012, and did better in Chicago after the trade (1.3 WAR in 80 games). The 3rd base replacement situation turns out to be a question with no right answers. Even if Youkillis had only hit as well as he did for all of 2012, it would’ve been an enormous improvement over Adams, so far.

      Cost to the team in the first half: about 15 runs, so far.

      4) He should have known about Jeter, given his age and injury.

      Most players, of any age, don’t recover from a broken bone by breaking a different bone. The Yankees had a backup ready in Nunez who was a tolerable player for the 20-30 games Jeter was originally supposed to miss. Nunez played far more poorly than he had before Jeter got hurt (OPS+ of 56 vs. a career OPS+ of 88 before this season), and has suffered 3 injuries himself this season, including the current one which has him out for nearly 2 months now. The combined injuries to Jeter and Nunez forced the Yanks to move Nix from his backup role at 3rd into a regular job at short, exposing his bat as well.

      Cost to the team in the 1st half: about 15 runs.

      4) The real cost of Granderson and Wells is about 11 home runs.

      No, it’s considerably more than that. Even in his worst year last year, Granderson created 100 runs. That’s 50 runs in a half season. However, his placements have created about 35 (that’s essentially Wells, Francisco and Almonte). Cost to the team: 15 runs. Teixeira also creates about 100 runs a season. His replacements, including his injured self, have created about 35 runs. Cost to the team: about 15 runs.

      That’s about 65-70 runs on offense, offset by a probable defensive gain of perhaps 10-15 runs total. The injuries cost the Yanks 50-60 runs, which is 5-6 games in the standings. Cut that in half, and they’re 45-35, and well in the race, and, most importantly, not collapsing out of it. And that’s without calculating the synergistic effect of the pitching now starting to fail under the strain of having to pitch a good game every single game, just as I predicted it would back in May, when the offense started to go down.

      So, yes, the injuries ARE an excuse, if you have this many, this many repeated injuries to the same players, if they last half the season or more, and are all on the same side of the team.

    6. baseballbob
      June 30th, 2013 | 12:17 pm

      They also lost Mustelier to a knee injury at the end of spring training, and again recently, and he might have been a viable fill-in for Youkilis, Adams, or one of the outfield spots. Nuno was also looking good before getting hurt, which limits their depth in the rotation with inconsistent games from Hughes and Phelps. I’d still like to see them trade Hughes for a bat, maybe someone like Lucas Duda at 1st or DH.

    7. June 30th, 2013 | 2:47 pm

      I think we need to frame the Cashman discussion a bit. To begin with Cashman is one of the highest paid executives in the United States of America, that counts. When you’re being paid 3 million dollars a year, your work is going to be evaluated on results, not, well we can’t blame him, I would have done the same thing. Not, the Youk decision could have worked; not, I also thought Jeter would be ready by opening day. You don’t get a free pass. Now a fresh set of decisions have to be made, simply put, does Cashman decide to try and fix this thing for today or acknowledge by word and/or deed that there are no quick fixes here. Cashman has failed the Yankees in every sense of the word, the minor league system is light on talent, and there is no one to build around at the major league level. His private life is a public mess, his dressing down of Klong made no sense, and more should have been expected of an executive at his level than the “shut the f*** up” episode of earlier this week. I don’t want Cashman making the next set of decisions, it’s time for him to go.

    8. Ricketson
      June 30th, 2013 | 3:02 pm

      Vintage Maloney…

    9. Ricketson
      June 30th, 2013 | 3:17 pm

      EHawk wrote:

      Well I think it was more that Cashman didn’t count on the Nunez injury.

      He’s not supposed to count on any one player’s perfect health either…
      Joseph Maloney wrote:

      I don’t want Cashman making the next set of decisions, it’s time for him to go.

      Unfortunately, the Steinbrenner-Cashman family relationship will pro-vide for at least one more contract extension for him, next year…

    10. redbug
      June 30th, 2013 | 6:04 pm

      @ Joseph Maloney:Cashman is one of the highest paid executives in the United States of America, that counts.

      Cashman might be highly paid as a GM, but he’s nowhere near top CEO in the US. According to today’s NY Times, “the median 2012 pay package came in at $15.1 million.”.

    11. June 30th, 2013 | 9:59 pm

      @ redbug:

      Well let me put to this way, the USA fulltime workforce is 115,000,000, Cashman makes more than 99.9% of them, yeah that rich.

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